All Things EV podcast

By Sean Mitchell

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Description

My Podcast documents my journey as a Tesla owner and the growth of the EV market. I've had some wondering experiences so far like becoming Denver Tesla Club President, attending Tesla's Semi Truck event in November 2017, driven more than 20 different types of Teslas, put over 145,000 miles on my car in the first 24 months of ownership, and attending Rivian's pickup truck reveal in November 2018.

Episode Date
S2 E1: Fireside chat with Trevor from Tesla Owners Online : Will Tesla refresh S/X in Q2 2019
52:50
Apr 13, 2019
S1 E10: Fireside chat with Gali Russell - Tesla investing, TslaQ FUD, and the future of EVs
01:25:54

Fireside chat with Gali Russell - Tesla investing, TeslaQ FUD, and the future of EVs

Hyperchange Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1LAjODfg7dnSSrrPGGPPMw

More on All Things EV: https://www.allthingsev.info

Apr 03, 2019
S1 E9: Volvo XC40 going electric, ice drifting in the Porsche Taycan, EVs are taking over Norway, Vistra replacing coal power plants with renewables, Japanese rail company installs Tesla Powerpacks, and are EVs really powered by coal?
31:57

Volvo XC40 going electric, ice drifting in the Porsche Taycan, EVs are taking over Norway, Vistra replacing coal power plants with renewables, Japanese rail company installs Tesla Powerpacks, and are EVs really powered by coal?

Apr 03, 2019
S1 E8: Electric Mini Cooper, Taycan Cross Turismo Production Green Light, VW ID Pre-orders, Pininfarina Electric Battista Hypercar, New Nikola Motor Production Site, Model Y Unveiling and a plethora of other Tesla news
33:04

S1 E8: Electric Mini Cooper, Taycan Cross Turismo Production Green Light, VW ID Pre-orders, Pininfarina Electric Battista Hypercar, New Nikola Motor Production Site, Model Y Unveiling and a plethora of other Tesla news.

To view a more detailed outline and articles mentioned, go to www.AllThingsEV.Info.

Mar 22, 2019
S1 E7: The Model 3 $35K, Model S and X pricing changes, the Polestar 2 reveal, Rivian’s digital jerry can patent, Nissan Leaf Plus pricing, and an all electric Macan.
41:55

In S1 E7 I cover the Model 3 $35K, Model S and X pricing changes, the Polestar 2 reveal, Rivian’s digital jerry can patent, Nissan Leaf Plus pricing, and an all electric Macan.

Mar 02, 2019
S1 E6: Nikola Motor Company going all electric, VW Group surprised by Model 3 cost, Porsche expanding their European charging network, Volvo’s electric Polestar 2 event, Tesla’s Sentry Mode, and a ton more
59:25

In S1 E6 I cover Nikola Motor Company going all electric, VW Group surprised by Model 3 cost, Porsche expanding their European charging network, Volvo’s electric Polestar 2 event, Tesla’s Sentry Mode, and a ton more.

If you would like to review the articles mentioned in this podcast you can go to AllThingsEV.info/podcast.

Feb 21, 2019
S1 E5: Honda’s new battery deal, Porsche 3 years of free charging, an interview with Rivian’s CEO, EV winter driving efficiency, and a flurry of Tesla news
44:40

In S1 E5 I cover Honda’s new battery deal, Porsche 3 years of free charging, an interview with Rivian’s CEO, EV winter driving efficiency, and a flurry of Tesla news.

View full show notes: AllThingsEV.info/podcast.

Feb 09, 2019
S1 E4: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings: Elon addresses my question and other retail shareholders'
25:35

All Things EV Podcast S1 E4

 

What’s going on everyone. Welcome back to the All Things EV Podcast. In S1 E4 I cover Tesla’s Q4 2018 quarterly earning call. If you’ve watched the video version of my Q4 recap, I’d skip past this podcast episode because it is verbatim. I will publish episode 5 next week as usual and cover two week’s worth of EV news - and there has been a lot going on.

 

With that said, let’s dive in.

 

Q4 2018 quarterly call

 

Profit and Growth

Improving Service Operations

New Products

Retail Investor Questions

Institutional Investor Questions

 

 

Profit and growth

 

Last year was the most challenging year in Tesla’s history but also the most successful.

 

Tesla achieved an 80% market share of sales in US in 2018

 

They delivered more cars last year than all prior years combined

 

Even if there’s a global recession, we’re expecting deliveries to be ~50% better than 2018

 

Increased cash on hand by more than $700m dollars

 

Tesla will have enough cash to pay convertible bond

 

Elon is “optimistic about being profitable in Q1 (2019) - but not by a lot…”

 

 

Improving Service operations

 

Elon’s priority number one is improving service

 

27 new stores and service locations

 

Increased service fleet to 411 vehicles. Can scale up very rapidly.

 

Increasing functionality of Service app

 

If car detects something wrong, before the Tesla comes to a stop there is a towing or loaner on the way

 

Improving parts distribution by stocking all common parts at service centers

 

 

New Products

 

Model Y completed engineering and parts

 

75% of parts for Model Y are same as Model 3, versos Model X commonality with Model S was 30%

 

Capex for Model Y will be extremely low

 

Model Y production will most likely at Gigafactory in Nevada

 

Model Y might be 50% higher than Model 3

 

Gigafactory Shanghai has begun and expect to be in production by end of year (body, paint, final assembly, general assembly, and module production

 

 

Say.com questions

199,452 shares and $62.3M connected

 

72,082 SHARES and 311 VOTES: Owners, many of them with large followings online, are becoming very vocal about Tesla's worsening customer service experience with delivery, service, and repair. This has a severe impact on sales and returning sales. What are you doing to change this growing negative reputation?

 

69,304 SHARES and 117 VOTES: How are you feeling about demand across the production line right now? 

 

46,013 SHARES and 130 VOTES: Can you please share an update on Full Self Driving?

 

44,595 SHARES and 138 VOTES: If and when will Tesla switch to 2170 cells? What percent range improvement do you expect?

 

37,859 SHARES and 188 VOTES: Where will the Tesla Semi & Model Y be produced? Can you share a timeline on the expected production ramp of these vehicles?

 

 

 

Institutional Investors

 

JP Morgan: What will CAPEX for Shanghai look like and how will you raise capital?

 

Loop Ventures: What does Waymo have that you don’t have? How important is autonomy in the Tesla story?

 

OppenheimerFunds: What is the geographic dispersion of Model 3? What is your expectation of reduction of production costs?

 

UBS: Any color on what price point your Model 3 demand will be? Do you have a new battery supplier to accommodate demand?

 

Deutsche Bank: When should we expect the Standard Range Model 3? Do you expect a 25% gross margin on Model 3 despite introducing Standard Range? 

 

New Street Research: How will Tesla react to a potential 2019 recession?

 

Goldman Sachs: How is Europe and China Model 3 orders shaping up? And preorders?

 

Wedbush Security: What is demand like in Europe for Model 3 in by region? What logistics and delivery opportunities and challenges do you expect? How do you envision the potential competitive advantage of Shanghai Giga in 18-24 months?

 

Bernstein Research: How much of price differential of Model 3 is structural (i.e. powertrain costs)? Are unites produced or gross margin most important to Model 3 sales?

 

Macquarie Group: Where are battery costs currently and where they will be at the end of 2019? Where you made aware of the Panasonic and Toyota deal?

 

Wolfe Research: Do you plan to offer a US lease product of Model 3? What has Model S and X lease been like in the past? Is there a restructuring charge that you expect in the first quarter and is it included in your expectations of a small profit? Will the change to servicing parts have a negative impact on working capital?

 

Baird Capital: What can you share about consensus? How do you feel about global recessions in relation to Tesla’s most recent layoffs? What can energy storage add to the bottom line in 2019? 

 

 

Wrap up

 

Thank you so much for listening

 

If you’d like to get your question answered on All Things EV Podcast tweet me at @SeanMMitchell and use the hashtag #AllThingsEV.

 

If you enjoyed the episode please consider subscribing so you automatically receive new episodes.

 

Lastly, if you would like to the review the articles mentioned in this podcast you can go to AllThingsEV.info/podcast.

 

I’ll talk with you all on the next episode of All Things EV Podcast.

Feb 02, 2019
S1 E3: Porsche Taycan production hike, Toyota / Panasonic battery partnership, the F150 going electric, and a flurry of unexpected changes at Tesla
22:42

In S1 E3 I cover news about the Porsche Taycan, Toyota / Panasonic battery partnership, the F150 going electric, and a flurry of unexpected changes at Tesla.

Jan 23, 2019
S1 E2: New EVs from Nissan, Cadillac, and Audi; Tesla on track to exceed Q4 2018 and more
21:34

News

 

Nissan

 

Nissan:

 

Nissan today unveiled the Nissan LEAF e+, further broadening the appeal of the world's best-selling electric car*1 by offering a new powertrain with additional power and range.

 

The "e+" refers to the increased energy density of the model's 62 kWh battery pack and the higher output of its powertrain. The new powertrain adds to the car's range by approximately 50 percent, with EPA-estimated range of up to 226 miles (364 km), ensuring that there's a Nissan LEAF to meet the driving needs of a wider range of customers.

 

160 kW motor

250 lb-ft torque (340 Nm)

70 kW (100 kW peak) charging

 

Source: https://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa/releases/nissan-leaf-e-joins-world-s-best-selling-electric-vehicle-family

 

Cadillac

 

Cadillac:

 

GM’s future EV platform, which Cadillac will be the first to use, will be flexible, allowing the company to respond quickly to customer preferences with a relatively short design and development lead time. The Cadillac portfolio will eventually benefit from a variety of body styles that can be spun off this architecture.

 

The most advanced components within this platform are the drive units and battery cells, both of which are being designed for maximum usability throughout GM vehicle lineups in different countries. The EVs can be configured in front-, rear- or all-wheel drive, and the output of their battery systems will be adjustable based on vehicle and customer needs.

 

Source: https://media.cadillac.com/media/us/en/cadillac/home.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2019/jan/0114-cadillac-ev.html

 

Audi

 

Electrek:

 

At the debut of the Audi e-tron in the Netherlands yesterday, Andreas Mindt, Head Exterior Design at Audi, said that the company plans to unveil a “smaller e-tron SUV”, a car that is described as a compact electric SUV, according to AutoWeek Netherlands, who were present at the event.

 

Source: https://electrek.co/2019/01/10/audi-small-electric-suv-compete-tesla-model-y/

 

Tesla

 

CNBC:

 

Last year, in total, Tesla sold 145,846 Model 3s, the company's mid-size, four-door sedan that started production in 2017. That easily outpaced the 111,641 units sold by the Model 3's closest luxury vehicle competitor, the Lexus RX.

 

That Lexus luxury SUV (which is made by Toyota) finished 2018 second on the list of best-selling luxury vehicles, followed by more luxury SUVs like the Mercedes-Benz GLC (an estimated 62,435 units sold) and the Audi Q5 (61,835 units), according to Kelley Blue Book.

 

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/08/teslas-model-3-was-2018s-best-selling-luxury-car-in-us.html

 

 

Model3VINs.com:

 

The website reports that at only halfway through the first month of the quarter, Tesla has registered 54,079 Model 3 VINS to-date in Q1 2019, 73% are for markets outside of North America. 

 

For some context, their current highest VIN registration quarter was Q4 2018 where they registered 75,648, with 99% being VINs for North America.

 

Though I don’t expect for this to happen, at Tesla’s current pace for the current quarter they will register 324,474 VINs.

 

Source: http://www.model3vins.com

 

 

Research

 

Video: The reason Tesla's 75 kWh battery is going away

 

This video will cover my theory on why. 

 

1. Larger battery offerings (https://youtu.be/uJMG01wesTs)

 

We know that Tesla has the ability to offer a longer range vehicle based on what we’ve seen with the Roadster and Semi. What we don’t know is will Tesla use the current battery cells, the 18650 (18 mm x 65 mm), the 2170 (21 mm x 70 mm) or something completely different. Video: https://youtu.be/ifaE3DUJD34

 

Elon said in an interview with MKBHD that doubling the modules of the Roadster would only increase the volume of the pack 80% or 4-5 inches higher. Video: https://youtu.be/MevKTPN4ozw.

 

The potential switch also aligns with the end of Tesla and Panasonic’s agreement of 2 billion 18650 cells announced in 2013, which according to my estimates has ended. Article: https://insideevs.com/panasonic-to-su...

 

 

2. Supercharger v3

 

A breakdown of a Model 3 by the YouTube channel Ingineerix

notes that the charging cable on the Model 3 appears to be able to take a higher rate than S and X due to its diameter. Video: https://youtu.be/rDYbvI32OBE

 

Finally, if this is not convincing enough, Elon stated recently that V3 should arrive some time early 2019.

 

Conclusion

 

If Tesla moves to 2170 cells for S and X, it should by nature of the battery architecture be able to withstand an upgrade from 120 kW charge rate to something higher.

 

Both Elon and JB Straubel are on the record saying that they think 350 kW is too high.

 

Here’s what Elon had to say on a Q1 2018 quarterly call:

“We’re definitely going to be improving our Supercharger’s technology. The thing about a 350 kW charger is that it doesn’t actually make a ton of sense, unless you got a monster battery pack or have like a crazy high C rating… We think 350 kW for a single car; you’re gonna frag the battery pack if you do that. You cannot charge a high-energy battery pack at that rate, unless it’s a very high kW battery pack. So, (for us), something along the couple of hundred, 200-250 kW, maybe.” Article: https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-super...

 

If Tesla moves to a 250 kW Supercharger this ~2x improvement on it current 120 kW charge rate.

 

This could potentially get a 0-100% charge in about 30 minutes. If we apply Tesla’s current approach of charging quickly on the front end, then slowing down at the battery  gets closer to a full charge, we might see an 80% in 15 or less.

 

Could this also impact the size of the battery in S and X? Elon has said on multiple occasions that he does not see the battery going beyond 100 kWh but perhaps he meant based on the 18650 cells. 

 

 

Wrap up

 

Thank you so much for listening

 

If you’d like to get your question answered on All Things EV Podcast tweet me at @SeanMMitchell and use the hashtag #AllThingsEV.

 

If you enjoyed the episode please consider subscribing so you automatically receive new episodes.

 

Lastly, if you would like the review the articles mentioned in this podcast you can go to AllThingsEV.info/podcast.

 

I’ll talk with you all on the next episode of All Things EV Podcast.

Jan 16, 2019
S1 E1: Tesla Q4 2018 Results, Byton at CES, Toyota on CNBC, and Tesla's largest asset and liability in 2019
51:17

S1 E1: Tesla Q4 2018 Results, Byton at CES, Toyota on CNBC, and Tesla's largest asset and liability in 2019

All Things EV Podcast S1 E1 

 

Show Notes

 

Purpose of this podcast

 

Give you the listener a well-rounded look at what’s happening in the Electric Vehicle space.

 

This means that in addition to what Tesla is doing, I will also cover the electrification efforts by new entrants like Rivian, Atlis, Lucid, SF, Byton, as well as legacy automakers like GM, Ford, Kia, Audi, Porsche, and Jaguar.

 

The EV space is just one aspect, though, I also think it’ll be important to cover the renewable energy and energy storage that will power these vehicles, so I’ll be doing that as well.

  

About me

 

Model S owner in Denver, Colorado with 160K miles (257K km)

 

Denver Tesla Club with 1,000 owners and enthusiast

 

YouTube channel with nearly 10,000 subs

 

Residential real estate

 

Why am I starting this podcast?

 

A few years ago I ran a pretty successful sales podcast called RealSalesTalk. After two years I eventually discontinued it to focus on my real estate business in Denver. Somehow, though, I alway knew that I would come back to the platform.

 

Podcasts are a great way to consume content when not at a computer and on the go. They are perfect for drive-time commutes, walking, working out, or just in remote places with little to no internet access. Best of all, it’s a killer way to be productive and expand your knowledge in an otherwise lost time block of the day.

 

With that said, let’s jump in.

 

News

 

  • Q4 2018 Tesla numbers

 

Production in Q4 grew to 86,555 vehicles, 8% more than our prior all-time high in Q3. This included:

  • 61,394 Model 3 vehicles, in line with our guidance and 15% more than Q3.
  • 25,161 Model S and X vehicles, consistent with our long-term run rate of approximately 100,000 per year.

Q4 deliveries grew to 90,700 vehicles, which was 8% more than our prior all time-high in Q3. This included 63,150 Model 3 (13% growth over Q3), 13,500 Model S, and 14,050 Model X vehicles.

 

In 2018, we delivered a total of 245,240 vehicles: 145,846 Model 3 and 99,394 Model S and X. To put our growth into perspective, we delivered almost as many vehicles in 2018 as we did in all prior years combined.

 

My thoughts: This was a monumental quarter for Tesla and I expect for it to be equally profitable if not more to Q3 2018. I’m exciting about where Tesla is headed and have a personal goal to increase my stock investment into the company now that there is a visible path to consistent profit.

 

Source: http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000

 

 

  • Byton at CES

 

InsideEVs: “BYTON is well on track to secure a production license in China. If you’re going to build a standalone, fully independent car company from scratch, you also need to control your R&D, design manufacturing and assembly. With this license, we’ll be able to control our own destiny” – Daniel Kirchert- Founder

 

My thoughts: I personally am onboard with what Byton is doing for the simple fact that they have the talent and money. The majority of Byton’s employees come from many of the luxury automakers like BMW and Infinity.

 

Source: https://insideevs.com/byton-founders-exhude-confidence-at-ces/

 

 

Toyota on CNBC

 

Bob Carter, executive vice president of sales for Toyota Motor North America:

 

“Our approach is a portfolio approach. We don’t think one technology is absolutely the best solution for each customer. We are working on an entire portfolio of hybrids, which we have been selling since 1997, plug-in hybrids, and full battery-electric as well as our fuel cell vehicles.”

 

“I’d argue to the contrary. When you are looking at full electric, whether it’s Tesla or others on the market, they represented last year less than one percent of the industry and as you know, the industry had a fabulous year last year. Our strategy is to keep utilizing our hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and eventually bring in battery-electric vehicles as the market grows.”

 

This to me this is an ultra concentrative play on Toyota’s part. Essentially they are saying we are going to be all things to all people. This is a zero risk strategy. And in my opinion, this is a recipe for mediocrity and more importantly obsolescence.

 

Source: https://youtu.be/naN40spDu9c

 

Research

 

Video: Tesla’s most valuable asset.  https://youtu.be/jHB23Z0VlUA

 

My thoughts: This will continue to be a cash cow for Tesla as their customer base grows. I do not expect them to do away with the referral program. I know some have commented that most people who used an owner’s referral code had already decided to buy a Tesla so it has little impact on the purchase process. I’d say to those people you are missing the point. The purpose of the referral program is to leverage owners to to talk about Tesla and their car. By doing this, they are dominating mind share and influencer marketing for a fraction of the cost of traditional advertising.

  

Video: Tesla’s $1.8B liability in 2019. https://youtu.be/uR7N4-yMfBA

 

My thoughts: If you follow me on Twitter you know I’ve been vocal about this issue. I think Tesla needs to quickly fix this. One thing I didn’t mention in the video is how many owners I’ve talk to in the last 3-4 who are having the same issues. Because of my relationships at Tesla I’ve offered to and helped around 50-60 owners. This is becoming a common occurrence now, which is why I decided to use my platform to make an Open letter to Elon and Tesla.

  

Wrap up

 

Thank you so much for listening

 

If you’d like to get your question answered on All Things EV Podcast tweet me at @SeanMMitchell and use the hashtag #AllThingsEV.

 

If you enjoyed the episode please consider subscribing so you automatically receive new episodes.

 

Lastly, if you would like the review the articles mentioned in this podcast you can go to AllThingsEV.info/podcast.

 

I’ll talk with you all on the next episode of All Things EV Podcast.

 

 

 

Jan 09, 2019