FiveThirtyEight Politics

By FiveThirtyEight, 538, ABC News, Nate Silver

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Category: News & Politics

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Subscribers: 10474
Reviews: 54

Michael
 Jan 20, 2021
Since joining ABC their left leaning bias has become more pronounced. I followed 538 from the beginning, but sadly I deleted it this week. Note, I'm not a Trump supporter, more of a never Trump type.

Nate
 Jan 12, 2021

Steve
 Dec 19, 2020
I've been a listener and subscriber for four or five years, but have stopped listening now that Claire is gone. The former dynamic was more than the sum of its parts and that has been completely lost.

S
 Dec 15, 2020
Without Clare it's a shell of its former self

Thomas
 Dec 9, 2020
I love this podcast. Bring back Claire Malone!!!

Description

Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

Episode Date
Did Trump Change The Rules Of Politics?
3527
This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen Travers, discusses Trump's legacy, how he changed politics and what the lasting effects will be.
Jan 19, 2021
Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment
2092
On Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 232-197 to impeach President Trump a second time. In this installment of the podcast, HuffPost's polling editor, Ariel Edwards-Levy, joined Galen and Perry to discuss why the vote broke down the way it did, what the different camps within the GOP are and what happens next.
Jan 14, 2021
What Led To The Attack On The Capitol
4328
The crew unpacks some of the elements responsible for the attack on the U.S. Capitol. They also discuss the calculations being made by Democrats and Republicans about how to hold President Trump legally and/or politically accountable for the attack.
Jan 12, 2021
What Will The GOP Do Now?
2529
The team reacts to Trump supporters violently occupying the U.S. Capitol and the Democratic victories in Georgia.
Jan 07, 2021
Trump's Fraud Obsession May Hurt The GOP In Georgia
3002
The Atlanta Journal Constitution's Tia Mitchell joins the crew to discuss why Republicans are attempting to overturn the election. They also check in on the state of the runoffs in Georgia the day before Election Day.
Jan 04, 2021
Goodbye To 2020
3988
In 2020's final installment of the podcast, the crew looks back at the year that was. They consider the most surprising political stories of the year, fess up to what they think they got right (or wrong) and answer questions from listeners. They also assess whether many pollsters' decision to sit out the Georgia Senate runoffs is a "good or bad use of polling."
Dec 28, 2020
Why Georgia Isn't Like Other Battleground States
3939
The crew debates whether the recent $900 billion stimulus package is a one-off attempt to avert crisis or a model for compromise in the Washington that President-Elect Biden is inheriting. They also discuss what makes the runoff elections in Georgia different from elections in other battleground states and what we can learn about the Biden administration and the Democratic Party from his cabinet picks so far.
Dec 22, 2020
What Do 1,200 Books About Trump Really Tell Us?
2846
Carlos Lozada, the nonfiction book critic at the Washington Post, speaks with Galen Druke about what he learned from reading many of the books written about Trump from the past five years.
Dec 17, 2020
Why Republicans Still Doubt The Election Results
3672
The two biggest stories of 2020 in the U.S. -- the pandemic and the election -- are finding some closure today, though each is really just entering its next phase. The conflicts and challenges presented by both the pandemic and President Trump’s attempts to overturn the election are not over.
Dec 14, 2020
What's The Deal With Pardons?
2349
Galen speaks with Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux about why presidents have the power to pardon, how that power has been used historically and how Trump's record compares.
Dec 10, 2020
The Electoral Challenges Facing The GOP
3197
The November election was the seventh time in eight elections that Republicans lost the national popular vote and was a rare loss for an incumbent president. In this installment of the podcast, the crew asks why President Trump lost and considers the challenges facing the Republican Party electorally. They also check in on FiveThirtyEight's newly launched polling average of the Senate runoff elections in Georgia.
Dec 09, 2020
How To Make Polls Better
4372
Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them.
Dec 04, 2020
What Happened To Down-Ballot Democrats?
3262
The crew discusses the challenges Democrats faced in House, Senate and state legislature races. They also ask whether it was a good use of polling to survey preferences for the 2024 Republican primary before Trump has even left the White House.
Nov 30, 2020
Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy
3160
Three weeks after the election, President Trump is still refusing to concede and making attempts to subvert the results of the election. The team discusses the extent to which these anti-democratic efforts have been successful and what precedent they set going forward. They also consider the politics surrounding the current surge in coronavirus cases and ask what pollsters should do about falling response rates.
Nov 23, 2020
Will Georgia Stay Blue?
2005
Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution to understand the trends that flipped Georgia blue and how durable they are.
Nov 19, 2020
What Divided The Electorate In 2020
2807
The crew explores the demographic and geographic trends that divided the nation in 2020. They also ask how President Trump's refusal to concede the election will affect the nation.
Nov 16, 2020
Model Talk: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad
2801
In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss why a polling error of even four points isn't that unexpected, offer reasons for why the error occurred and discuss the usefulness of polling and modeling going forward.
Nov 12, 2020
Where The Rest Of The 2020 Races Stand
2756
The crew reviews who is leading in the outstanding races and how the two parties are reacting to the results. They also discuss what positive vaccine news could mean for Biden's first term.  
Nov 09, 2020
Biden Is Set To Be The Next President
2109
The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election.
Nov 07, 2020
Biden Could Soon Win Pennsylvania … And The Presidency
1717
As votes continue to be counted in five key battleground states, and as Biden's margins continue to improve, it looks very likely that the presidential race will eventually be called for Biden. In this installment of the podcast, the crew shares an update on where votes are still coming in and what to make of the overall results at this point.
Nov 06, 2020
Biden's Path To Victory Is Looking Clearer
2047
After our colleagues at ABC News projected Joe Biden as the winner in Michigan, the former vice president's path to victory is looking clearer. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the results so far, what's left to come in, and some of the trends in the data. They also begin to answer questions about polling errors in the 2020 election.
Nov 05, 2020
The Election Isn't Over
1073
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast reacts to the results so far on election night 2020.
Nov 04, 2020
Final Reflections Before The Election
3367
In the final pre-election installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew takes a final look at the data, reflects on the stories that have defined the 2020 campaign and shares their guide of what to follow on election night.
Nov 03, 2020
What The Deluge Of Final Polls Can Tell Us
1792
Many pollsters released their final polls of the 2020 election over the weekend. In this installment of the podcast, the crew analyzes what the recent data tells us about the state of the race in its final days.
Nov 01, 2020
How To Vote Safely In A Pandemic
1321
Our colleagues at PODCAST-19 look at the precautions states have taken to make sure people can vote safely during the coronavirus pandemic. Make sure to subscribe to PODCAST-19 wherever you get your podcasts.
Oct 31, 2020
Model Talk: There Still Isn't Evidence Of 'Shy' Trump Voters
2543
This is the final(!) pre-election installment of "Model Talk." Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the latest polling has shifted in some of the key battleground states. They also address whether there is any reason to believe that "shy Trump voters" could provide the president with an upset win on Election Day. (The evidence suggests there isn't.)
Oct 30, 2020
The Under-Covered Stories Of The 2020 Election
2618
There are only five days remaining until Election Day and former Vice President Joe Biden currently has a 89 percent chance of winning, according to our forecast. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the state of the race and also considers which important stories have been under-covered by the press during the 2020 campaign.
Oct 29, 2020
How We Expect The Electorate To Look In 2020
2921
In this installment of the podcast, the crew takes a closer look at who exactly is voting and how their preferences have changed or stayed the same compared with four years ago.
Oct 28, 2020
How The Media Projects The Winner Of An Election
2045
Galen Druke speaks with the Executive Director of Elections at ABC News, Dan Merkle, who oversees the network's Decision Desk. Merkle explains how ABC News will go about projecting the winner of individual states and the overall presidential race, as well as when we might be able to expect those projections.
Oct 27, 2020
October Surprises Don't Usually Decide Elections
2974
The crew discusses this year's October surprises and the likelihood that a late development could shake up the race for president.
Oct 26, 2020
Model Talk: National And District-Level Polls Disagree
3053
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss why national, state and district-level polls are showing different levels of competitiveness in the 2020 election. They also answer listener questions.
Oct 23, 2020
The Second Debate Is Over And The Final Stage Of The Campaign Is Here
2093
The crew reacts to the second and final presidential debate of the 2020 campaign.
Oct 23, 2020
How Voting Is Going So Far
2563
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich join the podcast to discuss how voting laws and procedures have changed ahead of the 2020 vote and how they are being litigated.
Oct 21, 2020
The Most Competitive Races In 2020
1901
Micah Cohen and Sarah Frostenson key in on the most competitive races in the 2020 election. They are not actually in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, even though those states may be the most important for winning the election.
Oct 20, 2020
Embrace The Uncertainty
3519
The crew discusses how Biden's lead is similar or different from Clinton's in 2016. They also consider what kind of agenda Democrats might pursue were they to win full control of government this fall.
Oct 19, 2020
Model Talk: Why Democrats' Chances Of Winning The Senate Have Increased
2066
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the current election forecasts and answer questions from listeners.
Oct 16, 2020
What We Learned From The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings
2790
Judge Amy Coney Barrett is on track to become the next Supreme Court Justice. Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss what we learned from her nomination hearings and how she would shape the Court.
Oct 15, 2020
The Sun Belt Could Decide Control Of The Senate
3297
The crew looks at the state of the 2020 race in the Sun Belt states and also considers how Trump might be able to pull off a re-election win.
Oct 12, 2020
Model Talk: Trump's Position Worsens
2236
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latests movements in the 2020 election forecasts.
Oct 09, 2020
Pence And Harris Evade Questions In VP Debate
1973
The crew reacts to the first and only vice presidential debate.
Oct 08, 2020
What We Know About The President's Health
2761
During the four days since President Trump was diagnosed with coronavirus, the public has received limited and conflicting information about his health status. To make sense of the limited information we do have, the crew spoke with emergency room doctor Craig Spencer and presidential scholar Lara Brown.
Oct 05, 2020
Emergency Podcast: Trump Tests Positive For COVID-19
1351
The podcast team reacts to the news that President Trump tested positive for COVID-19.
Oct 02, 2020
Is The Supreme Court Losing Legitimacy?
2985
In response to Republicans' move to fill a Supreme Court vacancy so close to the election, some Democrats have floated the idea of expanding or restructuring the court. In this installment of the podcast, law professor Daniel Epps speaks with Galen Druke about whether the legitimacy of the Supreme Court is in jeopardy and what kinds of reforms activists and scholars are considering.
Oct 01, 2020
Trump Interrupts To Point Of Chaos In First Debate
2237
The crew reacts to the first 2020 presidential election debate.
Sep 30, 2020
The Politics Of Trump's Tax Returns
3226
The New York Times reported on Sunday that President Trump paid $750 dollars in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017, and no federal income tax during ten of the previous fifteen years due to reported business losses. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew weighs the potential political implications of the report.
Sep 28, 2020
Trump Refuses To Commit To A Peaceful Transfer Of Power
2648
In this emergency episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the news that President Trump refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose the 2020 election.
Sep 24, 2020
What Comes Next In The Fight To Fill Ginsburg’s Seat
3856
So far, two Republican Senators -- Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski -- have announced their opposition to filling the Supreme Court seat that once belonged to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg prior to the 2020 election. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the political calculations for both Republicans and Democrats over how to proceed in replacing Ginsburg.
Sep 21, 2020
Emergency Podcast: The SCOTUS Vacancy
1661
In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the implications of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's passing and the new vacancy on the court.
Sep 19, 2020
Model Talk: Democrats Are Slightly Favored To Win The Senate
2548
FiveThirtyEight has launched its 2020 Senate forecast model. In this episode of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the odds the chamber will flip.
Sep 18, 2020
Trump Narrows The Gap With Latino Voters
3416
The crew talks to pollster Carlos Odio about political trends amongst Latino voters. They also ask whether polls in the Midwest have corrected their biases and if scandals still matter.
Sep 14, 2020
How Ohio Is Preparing For A Pandemic Election
2317
Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose speaks with Galen Druke about Ohio's preparations for Election Day amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Sep 11, 2020
The 2020 Electoral Map Could Get Interesting
3133
The crew discusses which states could potentially be competitive in the 2020 election and asks, "good use of polling or bad use of polling?"
Sep 08, 2020
Model Talk: Trump's Electoral College Advantage
2654
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the 2020 presidential forecast has changed and answer questions from listeners.
Sep 03, 2020
The Media Is Getting Ahead Of Itself On Kenosha
3182
The crew looks at whether there is evidence for the idea that urban unrest will harm Biden's chances in the 2020 election. They also preview the Democratic Senate primary race in Massachusetts between Rep. Joe Kennedy and Sen. Ed Markey.
Aug 31, 2020
RNC Night 4: How Trump Used His 5,680 Words
1817
The crew reacts to the fourth and final night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
Aug 28, 2020
RNC Night 3: Pence Makes A Law And Order Appeal
1547
The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
Aug 27, 2020
RNC Night 2: Cognitive Dissonance
1794
The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
Aug 26, 2020
RNC Night 1: Trumpism vs. Traditionalism
2343
The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
Aug 25, 2020
DNC Night 4: Biden Pitches Himself As A Good Guy
2466
The crew reacts to the fourth night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
Aug 21, 2020
DNC Night 3: Harris Fills A Historic Role
2069
The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
Aug 20, 2020
DNC Night 2: Democrats Aren't Sure Who They Are
1910
The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
Aug 19, 2020
DNC Night 1: Michelle Obama Rips Trump
2500
The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
Aug 18, 2020
Model Talk: The 2020 Forecast Is Live!
1978
FiveThirtyEight's 2020 presidential election forecast is live! In this edition of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke break down what is new in this year's forecast and where the uncertainty lies.
Aug 12, 2020
Emergency Podcast: Harris Is Biden's VP Pick
1803
The crew reacts to Joe Biden's announcement that Kamala Harris will be his running mate.
Aug 11, 2020
The Tokenization Of The Veepstakes
2893
Joe Biden is expected to announce his running mate this week and the crew discusses the latest speculation over who it might be. They also compare Biden's current standing in the polls to Clinton's standing at this time in 2016 -- her peak of the overall campaign.
Aug 10, 2020
It's Not Just The Economy, Stupid
3094
After the release of historically bad GDP data, the crew discusses how well economic data can predict the outcome of an election. They also discuss the potential consequences of President Trump casting doubt on the legitimacy of the 2020 election.
Aug 03, 2020
A GOP Congressman Who Might Not Vote For Trump
1626
Rep. Will Hurd of Texas’s 23rd Congressional District joins the podcast. He is one of only four Republicans in the House still representing a district that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and he is the only Black Republican in the chamber. He is also retiring at the end of his current term. As he says on the podcast, he is not yet sure whether he will vote for President Trump this fall.
Jul 30, 2020
Biden's VP Pick Could Be Days Away
4088
According to the timeframe Biden laid out, he could announce his choice for a running mate as soon as the end of this week. The crew discusses the upsides and downsides of his various choices.
Jul 27, 2020
The U.S. Still Isn't Prepared For A Pandemic Election
2346
In March, it became clear that states needed to reconfigure in-person voting and significantly scale up mail voting so that Americans could vote during a pandemic. Since then, we’ve seen postponed elections, consolidated polling places, long lines, mail ballots that never reached voters, and long delays in counting those ballots. Will the U.S. be ready in November?
Jul 23, 2020
There Aren't Secret Trump Voters
3384
A recent poll showed that the majority of Pennsylvanians think that people in their community secretly support Trump. The crew explains why that is unlikely. They also consider the future of Black politics as politicians from the Civil Rights Era -- like Rep. John Lewis -- leave office.
Jul 20, 2020
White Democrats Are Wary Of Big Ideas To Address Racial Inequality
2956
In recent weeks, public opinion has moved significantly in favor of Black Lives Matter and more people have taken the view that Black people face discrimination in America. But is there public support for policies that could address that discrimination? FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and political science professor Meredith Conroy discuss what the polls can tell us.
Jul 16, 2020
COVID-19 Deaths Are Rising. What Will The U.S. Do?
3269
The crew discusses whether Americans and politicians are in agreement on how to respond to the recent surge in coronavirus cases. The also interrogate a lesson that some Democrats took away from the 2016 election -- that the party should focus less on "identity politics."
Jul 13, 2020
Conservatives Didn’t Get The SCOTUS They Wanted This Term
1957
FiveThirtyEight legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to look back at a U.S. Supreme Court term full of consequential cases. They also unpack one the final rulings of the term, which permits prosecutors to subpoena the president's financial records.
Jul 09, 2020
How Trump Could Improve His Electoral Odds
3385
The crew considers various strategies that President Trump and Republicans could use to improve their electoral prospects this fall -- ranging from a new running mate to a vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court.
Jul 06, 2020
How The GOP Chose To Be A White Party
2465
FiveThirtyEight's Clare Malone discusses the history of how the GOP became an overwhelmingly white party. Her article on the topic is titled, "The Republican Choice: How a party spent decades making itself white."
Jul 02, 2020
Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas
2741
The crew looks at new polling that shows the clearest picture so far of the presidential race in battleground states. It isn't good for Trump.
Jun 29, 2020
New Voter Registrations Have Nosedived During COVID-19
1979
FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich and Kaleigh Rogers analyze data showing that the number of people registering to vote has fallen off a cliff during the coronavirus pandemic
Jun 25, 2020
Progressives Challenge The Democratic Establishment
2897
The crew looks at the dynamic between Democratic upstarts and the establishment as primary voters head to the polls in New York and Kentucky.
Jun 22, 2020
Model Talk: Biden Leads Trump By 9 Nationally
2461
In this edition of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss FiveThirtyEight's newly published presidential election polling averages.
Jun 18, 2020
Views Of BLM Have Shifted. What Happens Next?
3189
The crew discusses the ways that public opinion on racism has changed during the past three weeks and ask how it will affect our politics.
Jun 15, 2020
The Protests Appear To Be Working
1547
New York Times writer Mara Gay and FiveThirtyEight contributor Shom Mazumder join the podcast to discuss the efficacy of the anti-police violence protests so far.
Jun 12, 2020
Americans Don't Like How Trump Is Handling Multiple Crises
3309
The podcast crew looks at President Trump's latest polling for handling the pandemic and mass protests. They also discuss why young voters aren't enthusiastic about Biden.
Jun 08, 2020
Protests, Then And Now
2707
Prof. Yohuru Williams joins Perry Bacon Jr. and Galen Druke to discuss how today's anti-police violence protests compare with past protest movements.
Jun 04, 2020
The Data Behind Police Violence
3576
Sam Sinyangwe joins the podcast to discuss police violence data and the politics of the protests that have spread across the country.
Jun 01, 2020
What Biden's VP Picks Say About Him
2083
Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss the process of choosing a VP and what that choice says about the candidate and the party.
May 28, 2020
Questions About Biden And Trump's Bases
3702
The crew discusses a gaffe Biden made during a conversation about black voters and debates the findings of a new study about white working class voters in the 2016 election.
May 26, 2020
One Virus, A World Full Of Responses
2643
The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how many countries, with different political systems, handle a very similar crisis -- and how the public reacts.
May 21, 2020
Does Trump Really Want A Fight With Obama?
3190
The crew looks at evidence that the coronavirus response has grown more partisan. They also discuss the rationale for an election year conflict between Obama and Trump.
May 18, 2020
Why COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories Are Spreading
2701
Political scientist Joe Uscinski joins the podcast to discuss the spread of COVID-19 conspiracy theories -- why they've formed and what can be done about them.
May 14, 2020
Americans, Not Politicians, Will Decide How We Reopen
2894
The podcast crew discusses the politics and practicalities of states reopening amid the COVID-19 pandemic. They also consider which party is ahead in the race for the Senate.
May 11, 2020
What The 14.7% Unemployment Rate Means
1946
Former Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Erica Groshen joins the podcast to discuss the latest jobs report, which showed a record unemployment level.
May 08, 2020
Biden Responds To Sexual Assault Allegation
3612
The team discusses the politics of Tara Reade's accusations of sexual assault against Biden and Biden's denial. They also weigh the impact of a Justin Amash run for president.
May 04, 2020
The U.S. Is Starting To Reopen. Is It Ready?
2184
States around the country are beginning to reopen. Professor Crystal Watson of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health discusses the systems they should have in place.
Apr 30, 2020
Is COVID-19 Already Hurting Trump Politically?
3332
The crew analyzes recent data showing Trump losing ground in swing states. They also ask how much reactions to the pandemic have been based on partisanship.
Apr 27, 2020
Model Talk: Forecasting The Toll Of COVID-19
2541
Dr. Chris Murray, creator of the frequently cited IHME COVID-19 model, joins a special edition of Model Talk.
Apr 22, 2020
What Is Motivating The COVID-19 Protests?
3728
The crew discusses why protests against COVID-19 mitigation measures have popped up around the country. They also weigh the pros and cons of Biden's potential VP picks.
Apr 20, 2020
How To Hold An Election During A Crisis
3098
What has the United States done to ensure elections continue during past crises and what can the country do now to ensure this fall's election goes smoothly?
Apr 16, 2020
Our 2020 Election Priors
3156
Now that Democrats have settled on Joe Biden, the crew discusses their priors for the presidential general election. They also track where we are in the COVID-19 pandemic.
Apr 13, 2020
Emergency Podcast: Sanders Drops Out
1856
The crew reacts to Sen. Bernie Sanders's decision to suspend his campaign for president.
Apr 08, 2020
Wisconsin's Election Is A Mess
3189
The crew digs into the challenges facing Wisconsin's election, given partisanship and the COVID-19 pandemic. They also take stock of where we are in the arc of the crisis.
Apr 06, 2020
Why It's So Hard To Forecast The Impact Of COVID-19
2022
FiveThirtyEight's science writer Maggie Koerth and quantitative editor Laura Bronner join the podcast to discuss the challenges of modeling the impact of COVID-19.
Apr 02, 2020
Why Trump's Approval Rating Has Increased
3054
The crew discusses where we are in the arc of the COVID-19 crisis, how Americans are rating the president's performance, and the significance of the DPA.
Mar 30, 2020
COVID-19 Broke The Jobless Claims Chart
2049
Economics reporter Ben Casselman joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the stunning unemployment claims numbers from last week.
Mar 26, 2020
How COVID-19 Is -- And Isn't -- Changing Politics
3111
The crew discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the politics of Washington, D.C. and how it's disrupting the 2020 presidential race.
Mar 23, 2020
How COVID-19 Is Changing The Economy
2446
Economist Tara Sinclair joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic so far.
Mar 20, 2020
How COVID-19 Affected Tuesday's Vote
1808
FiveThirtyEight's Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday night's primary elections.
Mar 18, 2020
Coronavirus, Uncertainty, Politics
2961
The crew discusses the coronavirus crisis and the uncertainty and politics surrounding it.
Mar 16, 2020
Biden And Sanders Debate Amid Pandemic
1120
The crew reacts to the first Biden vs. Sanders one-on-one debate, which took place amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Mar 16, 2020
The Democratic Primary Is No Longer Competitive
1916
The crew reacts to the latest round of Democratic primary results, in which Biden far outperformed Sanders.
Mar 11, 2020
Is Even Coronavirus Partisan?
2727
The crew discusses the results of a poll on coronavirus and previews the upcoming primary races.
Mar 09, 2020
Model Talk: Biden Is A Clear Favorite
1795
Mar 06, 2020
Emergency Podcast: Warren Drops Out
1392
The crew reacts to the news that Sen. Elizabeth Warren is suspending her campaign for president.
Mar 05, 2020
Biden Won Super Tuesday. What Now?
1940
The crew reacts to Joe Biden's very strong performance on Super Tuesday and asks what comes next.
Mar 04, 2020
What's At Stake On Super Tuesday
3328
The crew previews the races that will be decided on Super Tuesday and debates the effect Buttigieg's dropout will have.
Mar 02, 2020
Biden Wins Big In South Carolina
1608
The crew reacts to Biden's big win in South Carolina and discusses what comes next in what looks to be a two person race.
Mar 01, 2020
How Rep. James Clyburn Settled On Endorsing Biden
2029
Rep. James Clyburn endorsed Joe Biden on Wednesday. Galen Druke sat down with Clyburn ahead of his endorsement to discuss Biden, South Carolina and the Democratic Party.
Feb 26, 2020
What Went Down In The South Carolina Debate
2411
The crew reacts to a messy Democratic debate in South Carolina.
Feb 26, 2020
Sanders Wins Big In Nevada
2205
Nate Silver and editor of the Nevada Independent, Jon Ralston, join the podcast from Las Vegas to discuss the results of the Nevada caucuses.
Feb 23, 2020
Bloomberg Stumbles In Chaotic Debate
2161
In a late night edition of the podcast, the crew reacts to the Nevada Democratic primary debate.
Feb 20, 2020
Can Bloomberg Win?!
3165
The crew discusses Michael Bloomberg's chances of winning the nomination. They also debate whether Bernie Sanders has a lock on the Nevada caucuses.
Feb 18, 2020
Model Talk: The Chance Of Chaos Increases
1563
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the Democratic primary forecast has updated since the New Hampshire primary.
Feb 14, 2020
Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire
1863
The crew reacts to the results of the New Hampshire primary, including a Sanders win, a close second for Buttigieg and a surprise third place finish for Klobuchar.
Feb 12, 2020
Live From Manchester: A New Hampshire Preview
4191
At a live show in Manchester, the crew previews the New Hampshire primary, debates the likelihood of a contested convention and plays a game!
Feb 10, 2020
Live From The New Hampshire Debate
1674
The crew reacts to the Democratic primary debate in New Hampshire, from the spin room.
Feb 08, 2020
The Results In Iowa
2834
The crew discusses the results -- so far -- from the Iowa caucuses. They also check in on the race in New Hampshire and the vote to acquit President Trump.
Feb 06, 2020
Chaos In Iowa
1498
The crew discusses the lack of results in the Democratic Iowa caucuses.
Feb 04, 2020
Model Talk: What To Expect From The Iowa Caucuses
2332
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latest polling in the final day before the Iowa caucuses.
Feb 02, 2020
Stacey Abrams Thinks She'll Be President By 2040
2048
As part of our When Women Run series, Clare Malone sat down with Stacey Abrams, former candidate for governor of Georgia.
Jan 31, 2020
When Women Run
3518
To better understand what it's really like to run for office as a woman, we spoke to women from every state who have done it -- 97 women in all. These are their stories.
Jan 29, 2020
The Sanders Surge
3546
The crew assesses Bernie Sanders's improvement in the polls a week before the Iowa caucuses. They also discuss reporting from John Bolton's new book.
Jan 27, 2020
The Primaries Project: There's Gotta Be A Better System...Right?
1955
This is the third installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.
Jan 23, 2020
How Senators Are Calculating Impeachment Politics
1642
FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join Galen Druke to discuss the political considerations at play in President Trump's impeachment trial.
Jan 22, 2020
Live From DC: America's Favorite Sandwich
4393
In front of a live audience in DC, the crew debates the electoral cases of the leading Democratic candidates. The also discuss electability and guess what America thinks.
Jan 20, 2020
The Primaries Project: The Effects Of Reform
2718
This is the second installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.
Jan 16, 2020
The Last Pre-Iowa Debate
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The crew reacts to the candidates' performances in the last Democratic primary debate before the Iowa caucuses.
Jan 15, 2020
A Four-Way Pileup In Iowa
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The crew discusses the latest polling in Iowa, showing a tight four-way race. They also talk about Booker's decision to dropout and Tom Steyer's polling in NV and SC.
Jan 13, 2020
Model Talk: The Primary Forecast Is Live
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FiveThirtyEight's 2020 Democratic primary forecast is live. In a new installment of "Model Talk" Nate Silver discusses what went into creating it.
Jan 10, 2020
The Primaries Project: How 1968 Changed Everything
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This is the first installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American history.
Jan 09, 2020
How The Iran Conflict Could Affect 2020
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The team discusses the political implication's of President Trump's decision to kill Iran's Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani in a drone strike.
Jan 06, 2020
The Biggest Political Moments Of 2019
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The podcast crew looks back at the biggest political moments of 2019 and looks ahead to the most pressing questions of 2020.
Dec 30, 2019
Eggnog And Listener Questions
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In this holiday installment of the podcast, the crew drinks eggnog and answers questions from listeners.
Dec 23, 2019
The House Impeaches President Trump
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President Donald Trump became the third president in American history to be impeached on Thursday. The podcast team discusses how we got here and what comes next.
Dec 19, 2019
Do Voters' Second Choices Matter?
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The crew previews what to expect from this week's likely impeachment vote and debate how much voters' second choices matter in the Democratic primary.
Dec 16, 2019
Conservatives Win Big In The UK Election
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University of Cambridge political scientists Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to break down the results of the 2019 British general election.
Dec 13, 2019
The Primary According To The Early States
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The crew shares a preview of FiveThirtyEight's polling averages in the early states. They also discuss the path Trump's presidency is on.
Dec 09, 2019
The Legal Experts And The Polls
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We review the House testimony from legal scholars on whether Trump committed an impeachable offense and check out the results of our polling collaboration with Ipsos.
Dec 04, 2019
Emergency Podcast: Harris Drops Out
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The crew reacts to Sen. Kamala Harris's decision to drop out of the Democratic primary.
Dec 03, 2019
Is The Party Deciding?
3278
The crew looks at which candidates are racking up endorsements and whether there's a meaningful trend in favor of Biden. They also take stock of Harris's troubles on the trail
Dec 02, 2019
A Very FiveThirtyEight Thanksgiving
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The crew discusses public opinion on impeachment and plays a Thanksgiving-inspired game.
Nov 25, 2019
What Went Down In The 5th Democratic Debate
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In a late night podcast, the crew reacts to the fifth Democratic primary debate.
Nov 21, 2019
Impeachment Hearings Day 4: Sondland Testifies
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The crew reacts to U.S. Ambassador to the E.U. Gordon Sondland's testimony in the fourth day of public impeachment hearings.
Nov 20, 2019
Impeachment Hearings Day 3: The Phone Call
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The crew discusses what went down during the third day of public impeachment hearings.
Nov 20, 2019
The Buttigieg Bump 2.0
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The crew discusses the latest polling out of Iowa, showing a shakeup in the race there. They also ask why education levels are such a key factor in how people vote.
Nov 18, 2019
Yovanovich Testifies, Trump Attacks
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The crew reacts to the second day of public impeachment hearings.
Nov 15, 2019
Public Impeachment Hearings Begin
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The crew reacts to the first of many public impeachment hearings on President Trump's attempt to pressure Ukraine to investigate a political rival.
Nov 13, 2019
The FiveThirtyNATE Podcast
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The New York Times's Nate Cohn joins the podcast to discuss battleground state polling, the Electoral College and the state of the Democratic primary.
Nov 11, 2019
What The 2019 Election Results Mean
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FiveThirtyEight election analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley break down the results of the 2019 elections.
Nov 06, 2019
Free-For-All In Iowa
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The crew previews the key elections on the ballot this Election Day and debates the role healthcare is playing in Sen. Elizabeth Warren's plateauing in national polls.
Nov 04, 2019
Exit Interview: Tim Ryan
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Rep. Tim Ryan exited the presidential race last week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an "exit interview."
Oct 31, 2019
What Should Republicans Do?
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The crew debates the savviest political strategy for Senate Republicans on the issue of impeachment. They also discuss the death of al-Baghdadi and disagreement in the polls.
Oct 28, 2019
The Taylor Testimony
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The crew discusses the significance of U.S. envoy to Ukraine William Taylor's testimony. He claimed Trump made military aid contingent on politically-motivated investigations.
Oct 23, 2019
Medicare For Fall
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The podcast crew discusses the politics of Medicare for All in the Democratic primary. They also look at the latest impeachment polling.
Oct 21, 2019
Warren In The Hot Seat
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The crew reacts to the fourth Democratic primary debate.
Oct 16, 2019
What To Look For In The 4th Debate
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The crew discusses the latest impeachment polling and previews the fourth Democratic primary debate.
Oct 14, 2019
Impeachment 101
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Law professor Kate Shaw joins the podcast to discuss the laws and history behind impeachment and how they apply to today.
Oct 10, 2019
Is Ukraine Getting Worse For Trump?
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The podcast crew reviews the latest news in the impeachment inquiry and discusses the two parties' strategies. They also ask if Joe Biden is the Democratic frontrunner.
Oct 07, 2019
How TV's Evolution Explains Our Politics
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New York Times TV critic James Poniewozik joins the podcast to explain how changes in television over the past forty years have shaped American politics.
Oct 03, 2019
Impeachment Is Becoming More Popular
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The crew looks at how public opinion on impeaching President Trump has changed in the week since Speaker Pelosi announced a formal inquiry.
Sep 30, 2019
The Whistleblower's Complaint
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It's only been 48 hours since we last recorded, but a lot has happened. We discuss the release of Trump's Ukraine call summary, the whistleblower's complaint and more.
Sep 26, 2019
What An Impeachment Inquiry Might Mean
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The crew gathers to discuss Nancy Pelosi's decision to launch an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. How'd we get here, and what might come next?
Sep 24, 2019
Are Democrats Ready To Impeach Trump?
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The crew discusses how the Ukraine story could change the impeachment conversation for Democrats. They also debate whether Elizabeth Warren is now the frontrunner in Iowa.
Sep 23, 2019
We Ran Into Andrew Yang At The Airport
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Nate and Galen ran into Andrew Yang waiting for the same return flight from the debate in Houston last week. They asked if he'd record a podcast and he obliged.
Sep 19, 2019
The State Of *Both* 2020 Primaries
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The crew discusses the latest post-debate polling and what the GOP primary is teaching us about Trump's electoral strengths and weaknesses.
Sep 16, 2019
What Went Down In The Third Democratic Debate
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The crew reacts to the third Democratic primary debate from the spin room floor in Houston, Texas.
Sep 13, 2019
How To Own The Debate
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The crew discusses possible strategies for the candidates on stage in the Democratic primary debate on Thursday.
Sep 09, 2019
The Gerrymandering Fight Moves To The States
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A North Carolina court panel threw out the state's legislative maps as a partisan gerrymander this week. Nancy Martorano Miller and Dave Wasserman discuss the implications.
Sep 05, 2019
And Then There Were Ten
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The crew discusses the dynamic of the third Democratic primary debate, in which ten candidates will face off on a single night. They also ask: good use or bad use of polling?
Sep 03, 2019
A Constitutional Crisis In Britain?
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Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss Boris Johnson's suspension of parliament and the politics of Brexit.
Aug 29, 2019
The Winnowing Begins
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The crew takes a look at who has dropped out of the Democratic primary and why. They also assess the political risk of a hypothetical downturn in the economy.
Aug 26, 2019
The 2019 Elections
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FiveThirtyEight elections analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley join the podcast to discuss the races on the ballot in 2019 and the current national environment.
Aug 22, 2019
Elizabeth Warren's Comeback
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The crew discusses how Elizabeth Warren gained ground after polling fifth or sixth nationally a handful of months ago. They also ask what's changed since the El Paso shooting.
Aug 19, 2019
Trump's Trade War Puts His Biggest Asset At Risk
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International economist Mary Lovely joins the podcast to discuss the effects of President Trump's trade war with China.
Aug 15, 2019
How Much Does Iowa Matter?
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Following a weekend during which the 2020 candidates flooded Iowa, the crew debates the significance of the first-in-the-nation caucus state.
Aug 12, 2019
"The Best Pollster In Politics"
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Ann Selzer, who conducts the "Iowa Poll" and has an A+ rating in FiveThirtyEight's pollster rankings, talks about the challenges of polling Iowa in 2020.
Aug 08, 2019
Can Trump's Words Incite Violence?
3194
The podcast team discusses the weekend's mass shootings and the relationship between political rhetoric and violence.
Aug 05, 2019
Live From Detroit: The State Of The Race Post-Debates
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The crew discusses the debates and the state of the 2020 Democratic primary race in downtown Detroit.
Aug 02, 2019
Democrats Battle It Out
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The left and moderate flanks of the Democratic Party debated big ideas in the second primary debate. Nate and Galen react from downtown Detroit.
Jul 31, 2019
Are Democrats Moving Too Far Left?
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The crew debates the risks for 2020 Democrats of taking unpopular positions on issues like healthcare and immigration. The also discuss Democrats' next steps on impeachment.
Jul 29, 2019
Mueller Talks
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After months of back-and-forth with Democrats, former special counsel Robert Mueller testified before the U.S. House Judiciary and Intelligence committees on Wednesday.
Jul 24, 2019
Racial Resentment As A Political Strategy
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The podcast crew discusses the role that racial resentment played in the 2016 and 2018 elections and debates whether Trump could use it to his advantage in 2020.
Jul 22, 2019
Who's Going To Win Pennsylvania In 2020?
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The podcast heads to Pennsylvania to discuss the state's political trends and what they mean for 2020.
Jul 18, 2019
Trump's Racist Tweets
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The podcast team discusses Trump's tweets appearing to target a group of congresswomen of color. They also debate the odds of a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Kentucky.
Jul 15, 2019
Exit Interview: Eric Swalwell
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Rep. Eric Swalwell exited the presidential race this week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an "exit interview."
Jul 11, 2019
Is Biden Still The Front-Runner?
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The podcast crew debates whether Joe Biden is still the front-runner in the Democratic primary race. They also discuss Rep. Justin Amash's decision to leave the GOP.
Jul 08, 2019
The Verdict On The Debates
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The podcast crew digs into data about how voters reacted to the first debates. They also discuss the new sexual assault accusation against President Trump.
Jul 01, 2019
Harris Wins Narrative. We'll See About The Voters.
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The crew reacts to night two of the first Democratic primary debates.
Jun 28, 2019
What Went Down At The First Democratic Debate
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The podcast team reacts to night one of the first Democratic primary debates.
Jun 27, 2019
Lanes Emerge In The Democratic Primary
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The crew re-assesses the significance of "lanes" in the Democratic primary and looks at Trump's Iran strategy.
Jun 24, 2019
What's At Stake In The Final Week Of SCOTUS Decisions
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Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to discuss key decisions the Supreme Court has made so far, and what is at stake in the final 12 cases.
Jun 21, 2019
Who Is Persuadable In 2020?
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As Trump kicks off his reelection campaign, the crew debates who is persuadable in 2020. They also discuss the Democratic primary debate lineups.
Jun 17, 2019