FiveThirtyEight Politics

By FiveThirtyEight, 538, ESPN, Nate Silver

Listen to a podcast, please open Podcast Republic app. Available on Google Play Store.

Category: News & Politics

Open in iTunes

Open RSS feed

Open Website

Rate for this podcast

Subscribers: 6041
Reviews: 26

 Jul 19, 2019
professional level podcast with tons of info and new episodes every week. can get a little deep into the statistical weed on occasion.

 Jun 25, 2019

 May 17, 2019

 May 14, 2019

 May 14, 2019
Willingly blind to establishment biases, and Nate seems to purposefully push his own clearly establishment biases into the causes of certain poll results. But they know the ins and outs of polling, so it's a valuable podcast to listen to.


Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

Episode Date
Trump's Trade War Puts His Biggest Asset At Risk
International economist Mary Lovely joins the podcast to discuss the effects of President Trump's trade war with China.
Aug 15, 2019
How Much Does Iowa Matter?
Following a weekend during which the 2020 candidates flooded Iowa, the crew debates the significance of the first-in-the-nation caucus state.
Aug 12, 2019
"The Best Pollster In Politics"
Ann Selzer, who conducts the "Iowa Poll" and has an A+ rating in FiveThirtyEight's pollster rankings, talks about the challenges of polling Iowa in 2020.
Aug 08, 2019
Can Trump's Words Incite Violence?
The podcast team discusses the weekend's mass shootings and the relationship between political rhetoric and violence.
Aug 05, 2019
Live From Detroit: The State Of The Race Post-Debates
The crew discusses the debates and the state of the 2020 Democratic primary race in downtown Detroit.
Aug 02, 2019
Democrats Battle It Out
The left and moderate flanks of the Democratic Party debated big ideas in the second primary debate. Nate and Galen react from downtown Detroit.
Jul 31, 2019
Are Democrats Moving Too Far Left?
The crew debates the risks for 2020 Democrats of taking unpopular positions on issues like healthcare and immigration. The also discuss Democrats' next steps on impeachment.
Jul 29, 2019
Mueller Talks
After months of back-and-forth with Democrats, former special counsel Robert Mueller testified before the U.S. House Judiciary and Intelligence committees on Wednesday.
Jul 24, 2019
Racial Resentment As A Political Strategy
The podcast crew discusses the role that racial resentment played in the 2016 and 2018 elections and debates whether Trump could use it to his advantage in 2020.
Jul 22, 2019
Who's Going To Win Pennsylvania In 2020?
The podcast heads to Pennsylvania to discuss the state's political trends and what they mean for 2020.
Jul 18, 2019
Trump's Racist Tweets
The podcast team discusses Trump's tweets appearing to target a group of congresswomen of color. They also debate the odds of a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Kentucky.
Jul 15, 2019
Exit Interview: Eric Swalwell
Rep. Eric Swalwell exited the presidential race this week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an "exit interview."
Jul 11, 2019
Is Biden Still The Front-Runner?
The podcast crew debates whether Joe Biden is still the front-runner in the Democratic primary race. They also discuss Rep. Justin Amash's decision to leave the GOP.
Jul 08, 2019
The Verdict On The Debates
The podcast crew digs into data about how voters reacted to the first debates. They also discuss the new sexual assault accusation against President Trump.
Jul 01, 2019
Harris Wins Narrative. We'll See About The Voters.
The crew reacts to night two of the first Democratic primary debates.
Jun 28, 2019
What Went Down At The First Democratic Debate
The podcast team reacts to night one of the first Democratic primary debates.
Jun 27, 2019
Lanes Emerge In The Democratic Primary
The crew re-assesses the significance of "lanes" in the Democratic primary and looks at Trump's Iran strategy.
Jun 24, 2019
What's At Stake In The Final Week Of SCOTUS Decisions
Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to discuss key decisions the Supreme Court has made so far, and what is at stake in the final 12 cases.
Jun 21, 2019
Who Is Persuadable In 2020?
As Trump kicks off his reelection campaign, the crew debates who is persuadable in 2020. They also discuss the Democratic primary debate lineups.
Jun 17, 2019
A Republican Strategist's Guide To 2020
Republican strategist and pollster Bill McInturff joins the podcast to discuss his report, "What Republicans Need to Know as We Move Toward the 2020 Election."
Jun 13, 2019
Is Elizabeth Warren Surging?
The crew examines whether the popular narrative of Elizabeth Warren's breakthrough is reflected in the data. They also discuss why Joe Biden backtracked on the Hyde Amendment.
Jun 10, 2019
The D.C. Statehood Episode
Representative Eleanor Holmes Norton and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer join the podcast to discuss Democrats' efforts to make D.C. the nation's 51st state.
Jun 06, 2019
Are Voters Sexist?
The crew discusses what we know about how voters respond to female candidates and how the women running for president in 2020 are navigating questions about their identity.
Jun 03, 2019
Are Nationalist Victories Around The World Connected?
University of Cambridge professors Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss what appear to be a string of similar outcomes in elections around the world.
May 31, 2019
Is Pelosi's Trump Strategy Working?
The crew discusses whether last week's back-and-forth between Pelosi and Trump achieved its reported goal. They also look at head-to-head polling in the Democratic primary.
May 28, 2019
What We Can Learn From Tracking Trump's Falsehoods
The Washington Post has been tracking every false or misleading claim Trump has made while in office. In this episode, we dig into the database.
May 23, 2019
Have Americans Changed Their Minds On Abortion?
The politics team examines Bill de Blasio's theory of the case, the rationale behind seemingly conflicting numbers on abortion and ask if Democrats can win the Senate in 2020.
May 20, 2019
Why Some States Are Passing New Abortion Restrictions
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey signed the most restrictive abortion law in recent U.S. history into law on Wednesday. It's part of a larger trend of changing state level abortion law.
May 16, 2019
The Politics Of Impeaching Trump
The crew debates the possible political repercussions for Democrats of moving to impeach Trump. They also look at how some on the left have tried to discredit a CNN poll.
May 13, 2019
Live From Houston: What Happened To The Bush GOP?
In a live taping from Houston, Texas, the crew discusses how and why the GOP has changed from the party of Bush to the party of Trump. They also play a 2020 primary draft.
May 09, 2019
Live From Austin: Will Texas Be A Battleground In 2020?
The crew is in Austin, Texas, where they debate whether the Lone Star State will be a battleground in 2020. They also play a heated round of trivia.
May 07, 2019
Mueller's Letter To Barr
Special Counsel Mueller wrote AG Barr a letter expressing concerns about how he'd characterized the report's findings to Congress. The podcast crew reacts.
May 01, 2019
Peto Buttichar 2020
The crew discusses the Democratic Party's reaction to Joe Biden entering the presidential race. They also ask why Sanders and Warren don't have more crossover support.
Apr 29, 2019
How Joe Biden Could Win
Former Vice President Joe Biden announced his candidacy for president on Thursday. The crew discusses the reasons he could win the nomination or come up short.
Apr 25, 2019
We Have The Mueller Report. Now What?
The crew discusses how the various players are positioning themselves now that the Mueller report is public. Plus, the Democratic primary field expanded again.
Apr 22, 2019
Emergency Podcast: The Mueller Report
The podcast team reacts to the release of the redacted Mueller report.
Apr 18, 2019
The State Of The Democratic Primary
As the first quarter of 2019 comes to a close, the crew gives an assessment of state of the 2020 Democratic primary.
Apr 15, 2019
How Good Are FiveThirtyEight Forecasts?
Our "Model Talk" series returns briefly to discuss the performance of FiveThirtyEight's forecast models over the past decade. We crunched the numbers and the results are in!
Apr 11, 2019
Do Democrats Want An Outsider In 2020?
The crew debates the appeal of a political outsider for Democrats in 2020. They also look at the class divide among white voters how that affects their political behavior.
Apr 08, 2019
The Electoral College Episode
Julia Azari and Seth Masket join the podcast to discuss the arguments for and against the Electoral College and how likely it is to actually change.
Apr 04, 2019
What Will Biden Do?
Joe Biden has been accused of inappropriately touching a former legislator at a campaign event. Will that change his calculus about whether to get in the race?
Apr 01, 2019
Can Statistics Solve Gerrymandering?
Mathematician Moon Duchin joins Nate Silver and Galen Druke to discuss a method for spotting partisan gerrymandering that the Supreme Court considered Tuesday.
Mar 28, 2019
Life After The Mueller Report
The crew reacts to the principal findings of the Mueller report, according to Attorney General Bill Barr.
Mar 25, 2019
Emergency Podcast: Mueller Has Filed His Report
In this emergency podcast, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to discuss what comes next now that Special Counsel Mueller has filed his report.
Mar 22, 2019
Live From NY: It's A 2020 Draft!
In a live taping of the podcast, the crew competes in a draft of the 2020 primary candidates. They also play "Good Use of Polling or Bad Use of Polling?"
Mar 21, 2019
Ranking 2020 Rollouts
The crew takes stock of which candidates have done the best job introducing themselves in the early months of the primary.
Mar 18, 2019
The Moment Of Truth For Brexit
David Runciman and Helen Thompson from the British "Talking Politics" podcast discuss the week in Brexit and what comes next.
Mar 15, 2019
How Beto O'Rourke Could Win
Former El Paso congressman Beto O'Rourke is running for president. The crew discusses how he could win -- or lose -- the Democratic primary.
Mar 14, 2019
How Divided Are Democrats?
The podcast crew analyzes the divisions within the Democratic Party and makes sense of why potential 2020 candidates like Sherrod Brown decided not to run.
Mar 11, 2019
Iowa And New Hampshire Can Go To Hell
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Why do those four states vote first and does the lineup make sense?
Mar 07, 2019
Should We Cancel The Electoral College?
The podcast crew discusses the latest candidate announcements, whether party endorsements matter, and the merits of the Electoral College.
Mar 04, 2019
What We Learned From Cohen's Testimony
The podcast team reacts to a day of testimony from President Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen.
Feb 28, 2019
Our Best (Or Worst) Show
The podcast crew discusses absentee ballot fraud in North Carolina and the threat of a primary challenge to Trump. They also play a round of "Guess What Americans Think."
Feb 25, 2019
All The President's Investigations
The word is that Mueller will wrap up his investigation next week. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux shares an overview of the legal troubles that will continue to follow the president.
Feb 22, 2019
How Bernie Sanders Could Win
Sen. Bernie Sanders is running for president. The team describes both his path to success and failure in the primary. They also follow up on Trump's emergency declaration.
Feb 19, 2019
National Emergency Podcast
The crew reacts to the news that President Trump plans to declare a national emergency at the southern border. Vox's Dara Lind also joins to discuss the border security deal.
Feb 14, 2019
How Amy Klobuchar Could Win
The crew discusses the arguments for and against Sen. Amy Klobuchar winning the Democratic nomination. They also assess the politics of the Green New Deal.
Feb 11, 2019
The Mess In Virginia
Democratic politics in Virginia are in upheaval. The team reacts to the scandals facing each of the top three Democrats in the state -- the governor, lt. governor and AG.
Feb 07, 2019
The Politics Of Taxing The Rich
Some Democrats are floating new taxes on the super rich. The crew discusses the politics of those proposals. They also assess Cory Booker's path to the nomination.
Feb 04, 2019
The Perot Effect
What effect do third party candidates have in a two party system? This is an audio documentary about Ross Perot and the 1992 election that originally aired in October 2016.
Feb 02, 2019
Do Americans Want A Candidate Like Howard Schultz?
In light of Howard Schultz's possible presidential run as a "centrist independent," the crew discusses the appetite for such a candidate among Americans.
Jan 31, 2019
Shutdown Lessons (And 2020 Announcements)
The crew discusses the political repercussions of the government shutdown and considers two Democratic presidential contenders -- Pete Buttigieg and Tulsi Gabbard.
Jan 28, 2019
What To Make Of Roger Stone's Indictment
In this installment of Mueller Talk, Amelia Thomson-Deveaux discusses the implications of longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone's indictment.
Jan 25, 2019
How Kamala Harris Could Win
The crew analyzes what Harris's path to the nomination could look like. They also react to Mueller's statement on the Buzzfeed report and discuss the role of the young left.
Jan 22, 2019
Emergency Podcast: The Suborn Identity
In this emergency installment, the crew reacts to a Buzzfeed News report that President Trump directed his lawyer, Michael Cohen, to lie to Congress.
Jan 18, 2019
How Kirsten Gillibrand Could Win
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is the latest in the Democratic field to make official moves toward running for president. The crew discusses her case for the nomination. Note: At 17:40, Nate Silver's audio may be a bit unclear. He says, "It's not that logical because, number one, a lot of Democrats are concerned about senators who allegedly grope people."
Jan 16, 2019
How Julian Castro Could Win
The crew discusses what Julian Castro's path to the Democratic nomination could look like. They also lay out a rubric for evaluating candidate strengths and talk shutdown.
Jan 14, 2019
Will Trump Face A Primary Challenge?
Is Trump in danger of a serious challenge for the Republican nomination in 2020? Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss.
Jan 10, 2019
How Elizabeth Warren Could Win
The crew discusses the paths to Elizabeth Warren winning -- and losing -- the 2020 Democratic nomination. They also look at the political repercussions of the shutdown.
Jan 07, 2019
The Gerrymandering Project: Arizona
In 2018, more states decided to put independent commissions in charge of redistricting. Arizona serves as an example of some of the challenges those commissions can face.
Dec 31, 2018
Our 2018 Politics Awards
The crew looks back on the year in politics and gives out made up awards. They also share resolutions for 2019.
Dec 24, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Mattis Is Out, Shutdown Is On (?)
In an emergency episode of the podcast, the crew discusses Defense Secretary Jim Mattis's departure and the looming government shutdown.
Dec 21, 2018
Should Democrats Play Dirty?
Democrats backed off a plan that would gerrymander New Jersey, while Republicans went ahead with a power grab in Wisconsin. The crew discusses why the parties play differently
Dec 17, 2018
The Brexit Episode
Two political science professors from the University of Cambridge join the podcast to explain what happened in Britain this week and what comes next.
Dec 13, 2018
Trump's Turbulent Week
President Trump is continuing to face possible legal trouble over campaign finance violations, meanwhile the White House is in the middle of another staffing shakeup.
Dec 10, 2018
Something Is Fishy In North Carolina
The crew reflects on how politics have changed since President H. W. Bush's time in office. They also speak with Prof. Michael Bitzer about possible election fraud in NC-09.
Dec 03, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Cohen Is Cooperating With Mueller
In an emergency installment, the crew reacts to news that Michael Cohen pleaded guilty for lying to Congress about the details of a potential Trump project in Moscow.
Nov 29, 2018
This Is Mueller Talk!
After months of silence, the Mueller investigation is making news again. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to make sense of a big week of revelations.
Nov 29, 2018
Can A Democrat Win In Mississippi?
The final Senate election of 2018 is scheduled for Tuesday in Mississippi. The crew discusses the fault lines at play of race, geography and class.
Nov 26, 2018
Will Pelosi Be Replaced?
The Democrats have a majority in the House, now they need a Speaker. The crew discusses whether Nancy Pelosi will be re-elected and what the vote says about the party.
Nov 19, 2018
How Our Model Did
In this post-mortem episode of "Model Talk," Nate discusses how our forecasts did and how we can improve them going forward.
Nov 15, 2018
A Post-Midterms 2020 Draft... Live!
Live from New York, the team ranks the politicians most likely to win the 2020 Democratic primary. They also debrief on the latest results from the midterms.
Nov 12, 2018
Midterms Review
The team looks at some the underlying data from the 2018 midterms to understand the trends at play.
Nov 08, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Sessions Is Out
President Trump has fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions and is replacing him with someone who may curtain the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts.
Nov 07, 2018
Election Night Wrap-Up: Write Your Own Narrative
Clare Malone, Micah Cohen, and Jody Avirgan gather in the podcast studio at the end of a long election night to talk about what we learned and what's next.
Nov 07, 2018
A Guide To Election Night
We walk you through the key races to watch, hour by hour, as the polls close on election night.
Nov 06, 2018
The Final Countdown
The crew reviews the forecasts and other indicators for a final time before Election Day. They also ask whether Trump's appeals on immigration will help Republicans.
Nov 05, 2018
How To Judge The Model's Performance
In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver explains how to judge the model's performance, given that we expect the less likely scenario to happen sometimes.
Nov 02, 2018
Debating Our Own House Forecast
We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our House forecast.
Nov 01, 2018
Debating Our Own Senate Forecast
We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our Senate forecast.
Oct 31, 2018
The Most Important Races You Aren't Watching
There are over 6,000 state legislative races on the ballot this fall and they'll play a big role in Americans' lives. Over a hundred ballot measures are also up for a vote.
Oct 30, 2018
Do Toxic Politics Lead To Violence?
The crew reacts to the spate of violence over the past week and asks whether toxic politics are to blame.
Oct 29, 2018
The Early Vote Is Not In The Model
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains why he doesn't use the early vote to help forecast election results. He also answers questions from listeners.
Oct 26, 2018
The Campaign Ads Dominating 2018
The parties are spending billions on advertising this cycle. The team looks at which topics are mentioned the most in order to understand the parties' priorities.
Oct 25, 2018
How Voting Laws Will Affect The Midterms
New voting laws in Georgia and North Dakota are under the spotlight in the run up to Election Day. We discuss how those and other voting laws can affect elections.
Oct 23, 2018
These Fundraising Numbers Are Unprecedented
House Democrats have about a two to one advantage over Republicans in individual contributions. The crew debates how to make sense of that historic advantage.
Oct 22, 2018
The Governors Forecast Is Live
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver discusses key races in the newly released governors forecast and answers listener questions.
Oct 17, 2018
Early Indicators Of Who Is Running In 2020
The team considers whether Democrats can perform well in the Midterms based on their advantages among women alone. The also look at early indicators of who is running in 2020.
Oct 15, 2018
The Forecasts Are Diverging
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains the hypotheses for why the House and Senate forecasts are diverging and answers questions from listeners.
Oct 11, 2018
Live: Are Any Of The Post-Kavanaugh Narratives Right?
At a live show in DC, the crew debates the political consequences of the Kavanaugh episode. They also weigh the importance of tipping point Senate races and play a game.
Oct 09, 2018
Collins Says Yes On Kavanaugh
The crew discusses how Brett Kavanaugh's all-but-certain confirmation to the Supreme Court might affect the midterms.
Oct 05, 2018
The Ultimate Romney-Clinton District
Galen Druke heads to a traditionally Republican district in Houston, Texas that swung 23 points towards Hillary Clinton in 2016. The district is rated as a toss-up in 2018.
Oct 03, 2018
We Have New Polling On Kavanaugh
The first batch of polls is out since Judge Brett Kavanaugh's testimony last Thursday. The crew discusses how the public is reacting.
Oct 01, 2018
Flake News!
The podcast crew reacts to Senator Jeff Flake's call for an FBI investigation into allegations against Brett Kavanaugh.
Sep 28, 2018
The Ford/Kavanaugh Testimony
The podcast team reacts to the Judiciary Committee testimony of Professor Christine Blasey Ford and Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
Sep 28, 2018
Fire Rosenstein? Withdraw Kavanaugh? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
In a special live taping of the podcast, the crew discusses the future of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
Sep 25, 2018
The Model Is 7,000 Lines Of Code
In this installment of Model Talk Nate discusses how unexpected events affect the model and answers listener questions about how long the model is and where it's stored.
Sep 20, 2018
Kavanaugh's Confirmation Is In Trouble
The crew discusses the political response to an accusation from a woman who says Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her in high school.
Sep 17, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Manafort Is Cooperating
President Trump's former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, is cooperating with the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts to the news.
Sep 14, 2018
The Senate Forecast Is Live
In the latest installment of Model Talk, Nate discusses why the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast favors Republicans.
Sep 12, 2018
Stop Catering To Idiots
The crew reacts to the latest news about the inner workings of the Trump administration and explores the Upshot's foray into live polling.
Sep 10, 2018
How Useful Are SCOTUS Confirmation Hearings?
After three days of Supreme Court nomination hearings, Perry Bacon Jr. and Oliver Roeder discuss what, if anything, they learned.
Sep 07, 2018
Is The Path Of Trump's Presidency Set?
The crew is using the Labor Day holiday to take a step back from the news of the moment and assess how President Trump is faring after more than a year and a half in office.
Sep 03, 2018
Debugging The Model
In this episode of Model Talk, Nate talks about debugging the model and answers questions from listeners, including one surprise listener by the name of Rush.
Aug 30, 2018
Impeachment: A FiveThirtyEight Debate
The crew discusses the legacy of Senator John McCain. They also debate how Democrats should approach the question of impeachment.
Aug 27, 2018
What Does It Mean To Be 'Electable'?
Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari discuss what "electability" means and consider whether it's a useful term for assessing candidates.
Aug 23, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Cohen + Manafort = !!!
The podcast crew reacts to a guilty plea from Michael Cohen and a guilty verdict for Paul Manafort on the same day.
Aug 21, 2018
Democrats Are Competing Everywhere
The crew discusses their takeaways from the new 2018 House forecast. They also sort through new data on how Trump voters' views have evolved or not since 2016.
Aug 20, 2018
The Upset Of The Season
In the heat of the news of Justice Kennedy's retirement, this podcast might have been lost forever. The team reacts to a major primary upset in New York's 14th district.
Jun 28, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Kennedy Is Retiring
The podcast team reacts to the news that Justice Anthony Kennedy is retiring from the U.S. Supreme Court.
Jun 27, 2018
Is Immigration The Issue of 2018?
The team discusses the continuing fallout from Trump's policy of separating families that illegally cross the border. They also ask why there aren't more GOP women in Congress
Jun 25, 2018
Bonus Episode: Masculinity In 2018
FiveThirtyEight partnered with WNYC's Death, Sex & Money podcast to do a survey asking what men think about being a man in 2018.
Jun 21, 2018
The Immigration Flashpoint
The team discusses the separation of children and parents at the border and the role that immigration plays in the GOP. They also react to a SCOTUS decision on gerrymandering.
Jun 18, 2018
Emergency Podcast: The Inspector General's Report
Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr. discuss the political implications of the inspector general's report on the 2016 FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton.
Jun 14, 2018
The Super Tuesday Of The Midterms
Eight states are holding primary contests on Tuesday, including California, where the top two primary system could create some interesting results.
Jun 04, 2018
The Polls Are All Right
FiveThirtyEight has updated its pollster ratings for the first time since before the 2016 election. Nate and Galen discuss the state of polling and what to expect in 2018.
May 31, 2018
Things Look Less Good For Dems
Democrats' advantage in generic ballot polling has declined in recent months. The crew debates what that tells us about their prospects this fall.
May 29, 2018
A Year Of Mueller
The team takes stock of where the Mueller probe stands one year on. They also discuss Democrats' debate over reducing the role of superdelegates in presidential primaries.
May 21, 2018
A Democratic Squabble In Texas
Does the fault line in the Democratic Party really run through Texas's 7th district? Clare and Galen compare the candidates in what's become a contentious Democratic primary.
May 17, 2018
Partisanship Is A Hell Of A Drug
The team discusses partisanship in the first of a series of conversations about the midterms called "Priors." They also look at Americans' views of Trump's foreign policy.
May 14, 2018
Special Episode: Chasing Hillary
Nate Silver and Clare Malone sit down Amy Chozick, the author of "Chasing Hillary: Ten Years, Two Presidential Campaigns, and One Intact Glass Ceiling."
May 10, 2018
Primary Season Begins
Tuesday is the fist big primary Election Day of the 2018 midterms. The team discusses the most important races to watch. They also debate whether Trump deserves more credit.
May 07, 2018
The Giuliani Rampage Podcast
President Trump's new lawyer Rudy Giuliani contradicted the president about payments to Stormy Daniels during a two-day long media rampage.
May 04, 2018
How Much Trouble Is Manchin In?
Joe Manchin is one of ten Democrats defending a Senate seat in a state Trump won. The team looks at the Republicans vying to challenge him in West Virginia.
Apr 30, 2018
About That Texas Poll
The team debates whether the Texas Senate race is actually winnable for the Democrat. They also discuss the special election in Arizona and how to responsibly cover polls.
Apr 23, 2018
The Comey Episode
The crew debates the significance of former FBI Director James Comey's new tell-all book. They also look at public opinion of the recent U.S. airstrikes in Syria.
Apr 16, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Ryan To Retire
House Speaker Paul Ryan announced Wednesday morning that he will not seek reelection in 2018. Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari react to the news.
Apr 11, 2018
The Nightmare Midterms Hack
The team describes what a nightmare elections hack scenario would look like, based on reporting by Clare Malone. They also discuss the continuous scandals at the EPA.
Apr 10, 2018
Emergency Podcast: FBI Raids Trump's Lawyer's Office
The podcast crew responds to the news that the FBI raided the office and home of President Trump's personal lawyer Michael Cohen.
Apr 09, 2018
FiveThirtyEight Family Feud
The team plays a round of "FiveThirtyEight Family Feud" to help determine Trump's strengths and weakness. They also debate the merits of census's new citizenship question.
Apr 03, 2018
Special: Cambridge Analytica, Facebook, and Political Data
Clare Malone and Jody Avirgan speak with Daniel Kreiss of UNC about the use of FB data in the 2016 election -- and beyond. Listen to the history of data and politics series here:
Mar 29, 2018
How Do We Cover Stormy Daniels?
The team debates how to cover the alleged coverup and affair between Stormy Daniels and President Trump. They also dive into new data showing Americans are as divided as ever.
Mar 26, 2018
What If Trump Fired Mueller?
President Trump tore into the investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller this weekend. The team discusses what would happen if Trump fired Mueller.
Mar 19, 2018
The GOP Should Be Freaking Out, PA Edition
Democrat Conor Lamb looks poised to win in a Pennsylvania district that voted for Trump by 20 points. The podcast team discusses what the results mean for the midterms.
Mar 14, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Rexit
President Trump announced Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's firing on twitter Tuesday morning. The podcast team reacts.
Mar 13, 2018
The Most Special Special Election Yet
The crew discusses the candidates and environment heading into Tuesday's special election in Pennsylvania's 18th district - a district that Trump won by 20 points.
Mar 12, 2018
Does Trump's Mood Matter?
The team makes sense of a week of chaos at the White House and what it says about Trump's decision making. They also discuss how academics rank presidential achievement.
Mar 05, 2018
A Turning Point On Guns?
The team discusses whether the high school shooting in Parkland, FL is a turning point in the gun debate. They also play a round of political "would you rather?"
Feb 26, 2018
The Gun Debate
This episode is dedicated entirely to discussing the gun debate. The crew looks at public opinion, political strategy and what is likely to happen next.
Feb 20, 2018
Emergency Podcast: 13 Russians Indicted
The team responds to news that 13 Russians and 3 companies have been indicted in the special counsel investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.
Feb 16, 2018
What's So Wrong With Nancy Pelosi?
The crew debates why Nancy Pelosi is such a target for Republican attacks and whether those attacks will actually move voters.
Feb 12, 2018
Has Trump Remade The GOP?
The team debates whether the Nunes memo was much ado about nothing, and discusses Trump's effect on the Republican Party.
Feb 05, 2018
Which Version Of Trump's Presidency Is Happening?
One year in, the day before Trump's first (proper) State Of The Union address, we revisit the "14 Paths" and discuss what version of President Trump we ended up with.
Jan 29, 2018
The Three-Day Shutdown
The Senate voted to end the shutdown less than three days after it began. Did Democrats get what they wanted? The team also discusses the uptick in Trump's approval rating.
Jan 22, 2018
Emergency Podcast - Government Shutdown
The politics team discusses the repercussions of the government shutdown after the Senate failed to pass a stopgap spending bill Friday night.
Jan 19, 2018
Immigration Showdown
With a government shutdown looming, Democrats and Republicans have hit an impasse over immigration policy. The crew discusses what's at stake.
Jan 16, 2018
The Gerrymandering Project: Conclusion
In the final episode of our gerrymandering series we consider some more radical electoral reforms and look back on the lessons we've learned.
Jan 11, 2018
Oprah, Palace Intrigue And Nuclear War
The crew discusses the possibility of an Oprah presidential run, a new book about the Trump White House and Trump's behavior towards North Korea.
Jan 08, 2018
The Gerrymandering Project: California
California took significant steps to try to rid redistricting of partisan politics. Politicians still sought to influence the process. Did they succeed?
Jan 04, 2018
Our Political Journalism Resolutions
2018 is here! We discuss our political reporting resolutions -- both for ourselves and the media in general -- as we head into a big new year.
Jan 01, 2018
Who's Running In 2020?
The crew throws caution to the wind and debates which Democrats are best positioned to do well in the 2020 presidential primary.
Dec 25, 2017
The Gerrymandering Project: Arizona
The number of competitive congressional elections has fallen dramatically in recent decades. Arizona tried to combat that trend.
Dec 21, 2017
Lessons From Alabama
The politics team sorts through the hot takes from last week's Senate election in Alabama. They also discuss the political implications of the proposed GOP tax overhaul.
Dec 18, 2017
The Gerrymandering Project: North Carolina
A decades long debate has raged over how to ensure minorities have a voice in America. In the third installment of our series, we look at racial gerrymandering.
Dec 14, 2017
Emergency Podcast: Doug Jones Wins
Doug Jones became the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Alabama in a quarter century. The team discusses the factors that converged to make that possible.
Dec 12, 2017
The Alabama Election Is Here
The Alabama special Senate election is Tuesday. The polls have varied significantly in an election where turnout is hard to predict. The team weighs in on what to expect.
Dec 11, 2017
The Gerrymandering Project: Wisconsin
Is partisan gerrymandering illegal? In the second installment of our gerrymandering series we look at a Supreme Court case that could reshape how we draw political boundaries.
Dec 07, 2017
Are Taxes A Pyrrhic Victory?
The Senate passed a tax overhaul bill Friday night. The team weighs the political and policy implications and follow up on the fallout from Michael Flynn's guilty plea.
Dec 04, 2017
Emergency Podcast: Flynn Flips
A quick conversation in reaction the big news that Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about conversations with Russian officials.
Dec 01, 2017
The Gerrymandering Project: Intro
What is gerrymandering? This is the first episode in a six-part series exploring the effects of gerrymandering and how reformers hope to change the system.
Nov 30, 2017
Congress's Broken Culture
Lawmakers return to Washington under pressure to confront sexual harassment by their own ranks. The podcast team also looks at the latest in the Alabama special Senate race.
Nov 27, 2017
Alabama Is Tied
The Alabama special Senate race is now tied, after numerous accusation that Republican Roy Moore molested and assaulted teenage girls. The podcast team reacts.
Nov 20, 2017
Franken Is Accused Of Harassment
Leeann Tweeden accused Senator Al Franken of kissing and groping her without her consent while on a USO tour in the Middle East. The podcast team reacts.
Nov 16, 2017
Alabama's Senate Race
Five women have accused Roy Moore, Republican candidate for Senate from Alabama, of sexual misconduct. The team assesses how this will affect the final month of the campaign.
Nov 13, 2017
2016 Anniversary Talk
A year after the 2016 election, Nate & Micah sit down to discuss what it was like to cover the race - from the mistakes FiveThirtyEight made to the emotions of the final weeks
Nov 08, 2017
A Good Night For Democrats
The podcast team responds to strong showing by Democrats across the board on Election Day 2017
Nov 07, 2017
Election Day 2017
Will Democrats begin their comeback on Election Day 2017? The podcast team shares advice on which races to watch and what the margins mean.
Nov 06, 2017
Sexual Harassment In Media And Politics
Major figures in political journalism are alleged to have been serial sexual harassers. What does it mean to have those men in charge of the way political news gets made?
Nov 04, 2017
Mueller's First Strike
Ex-chairman of the Trump campaign Paul Manafort was indicted along with two other campaign aides as part of Bob Mueller's special investigation. The team weighs in.
Oct 30, 2017
Emergency Podcast - Flake Is Out
GOP Sen. Jeff Flake from Arizona, a repeated Trump critic, announced he will not seek reelection in 2018. The podcast team discusses what that means for Arizona and the GOP.
Oct 24, 2017
Could Alabama Go Blue?
The 2017 elections are not far off. The team looks at the candidates and polling in the Virginia governor's race and Alabama's special Senate race.
Oct 23, 2017
Steve Bannon's War
Steve Bannon declared "war" on the GOP establishment at the Values Voter Summit last week. The podcast team discusses what that will mean for the 2018 midterms.
Oct 16, 2017
Corker Uncorked
GOP Senator Corker and President Trump went at each other over the weekend. The podcast weighs in on how Corker's criticism of Trump could affect GOP politics.
Oct 09, 2017
Trump's Response To Maria
The Trump administration is facing multiple crises: a mass shooting in Las Vegas, Puerto Rico recovering from hurricane Maria and rising tensions with North Korea.
Oct 02, 2017
Is Partisan Gerrymandering Illegal?
The Supreme Court is hearing a partisan gerrymandering case that could reshape how our democracy works. FiveThirtyEight brings you a deep dive into what is at stake.
Sep 28, 2017
Trump vs. The NFL
Over the weekend, President Trump targeted the NFL for player protests and was rebuked by owners, players and the players union. The podcast team weighs in.
Sep 25, 2017
Emergency Podcast: McCain Is A No
Sen. McCain is a no on the latest ACA repeal effort. The team debates what comes next.
Sep 22, 2017
Democrats Divided
As the Democratic Party increasingly embraces single payer healthcare and Clinton weighs in on her primary race against Sanders, the team discusses where the party is headed.
Sep 18, 2017
What Happened
Hillary Clinton is releasing a book this week chronicling what went wrong during her 2016 campaign from her perspective. The podcast team sizes up her assessment.
Sep 11, 2017
Immigration Politics
The White House has decided to end the DACA program. The podcast team weighs in on how voters view DACA and what Congress's options are for replacing it.
Sep 05, 2017
Harvey Tests Trump
Amid historic flooding in East Texas, the team talks about the political challenges natural disasters can pose to local officials, governors and the president.
Aug 28, 2017
How Trump Talks About Race
The team talks to political science professor Vincent Hutchings about the way Donald Trump spoke about race in the aftermath of Charlottesville.
Aug 21, 2017
Emergency Podcast - Bannon Out
In this emergency podcast, the team talks about what Steve Bannon's departure from the White House means for the people who remain.
Aug 18, 2017
Trump's Response To Charlottesville
President Trump did not condemn white supremacy by name in his initial response to the violence in Charlottesville. The team discusses the reasons and repercussions.
Aug 14, 2017
Enter The Grand Jury
The team weighs the significance of Bob Mueller empaneling a grand jury in the Russia investigation. They also look at persisting rifts in the Democratic Party.
Aug 07, 2017
Special Presentation: 30 for 30 Podcasts
A break from politics with an excerpt of a new audio documentary from 30 for 30 Podcasts, which our very own Jody Avirgan heads up. We present "The Fighter Inside," reported by Andrew Mambo. More at
Aug 05, 2017
White House Chaos
The team breaks down the latest White House staffing shakeups and asks how Chief of Staff John Kelly might correct course amid the chaos.
Jul 31, 2017
Emergency Podcast - Senate Repeal Fails
The podcast team breaks down the final votes and weighs who is most responsible for the Republican failure: Trump, McConnell or Ryan.
Jul 28, 2017
The GOP's Last(?) Ditch Health Care Push
The podcast team considers the options for Senate Republicans as they face a last ditch effort to repeal the ACA. Plus, how different would a Clinton presidency have been?
Jul 24, 2017