FiveThirtyEight Politics

By FiveThirtyEight, 538, ABC News, Nate Silver

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 Aug 3, 2020

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 Jun 17, 2020

 Apr 19, 2020


Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

Episode Date
Trump Refuses To Commit To A Peaceful Transfer Of Power
In this emergency episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the news that President Trump refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose the 2020 election.
Sep 24, 2020
What Comes Next In The Fight To Fill Ginsburg’s Seat
So far, two Republican Senators -- Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski -- have announced their opposition to filling the Supreme Court seat that once belonged to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg prior to the 2020 election. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the political calculations for both Republicans and Democrats over how to proceed in replacing Ginsburg.
Sep 21, 2020
Emergency Podcast: The SCOTUS Vacancy
In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the implications of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's passing and the new vacancy on the court.
Sep 19, 2020
Model Talk: Democrats Are Slightly Favored To Win The Senate
FiveThirtyEight has launched its 2020 Senate forecast model. In this episode of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the odds the chamber will flip.
Sep 18, 2020
Trump Narrows The Gap With Latino Voters
The crew talks to pollster Carlos Odio about political trends amongst Latino voters. They also ask whether polls in the Midwest have corrected their biases and if scandals still matter.
Sep 14, 2020
How Ohio Is Preparing For A Pandemic Election
Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose speaks with Galen Druke about Ohio's preparations for Election Day amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Sep 11, 2020
The 2020 Electoral Map Could Get Interesting
The crew discusses which states could potentially be competitive in the 2020 election and asks, "good use of polling or bad use of polling?"
Sep 08, 2020
Model Talk: Trump's Electoral College Advantage
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the 2020 presidential forecast has changed and answer questions from listeners.
Sep 03, 2020
The Media Is Getting Ahead Of Itself On Kenosha
The crew looks at whether there is evidence for the idea that urban unrest will harm Biden's chances in the 2020 election. They also preview the Democratic Senate primary race in Massachusetts between Rep. Joe Kennedy and Sen. Ed Markey.
Aug 31, 2020
RNC Night 4: How Trump Used His 5,680 Words
The crew reacts to the fourth and final night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
Aug 28, 2020
RNC Night 3: Pence Makes A Law And Order Appeal
The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
Aug 27, 2020
RNC Night 2: Cognitive Dissonance
The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
Aug 26, 2020
RNC Night 1: Trumpism vs. Traditionalism
The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
Aug 25, 2020
DNC Night 4: Biden Pitches Himself As A Good Guy
The crew reacts to the fourth night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
Aug 21, 2020
DNC Night 3: Harris Fills A Historic Role
The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
Aug 20, 2020
DNC Night 2: Democrats Aren't Sure Who They Are
The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
Aug 19, 2020
DNC Night 1: Michelle Obama Rips Trump
The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
Aug 18, 2020
Model Talk: The 2020 Forecast Is Live!
FiveThirtyEight's 2020 presidential election forecast is live! In this edition of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke break down what is new in this year's forecast and where the uncertainty lies.
Aug 12, 2020
Emergency Podcast: Harris Is Biden's VP Pick
The crew reacts to Joe Biden's announcement that Kamala Harris will be his running mate.
Aug 11, 2020
The Tokenization Of The Veepstakes
Joe Biden is expected to announce his running mate this week and the crew discusses the latest speculation over who it might be. They also compare Biden's current standing in the polls to Clinton's standing at this time in 2016 -- her peak of the overall campaign.
Aug 10, 2020
It's Not Just The Economy, Stupid
After the release of historically bad GDP data, the crew discusses how well economic data can predict the outcome of an election. They also discuss the potential consequences of President Trump casting doubt on the legitimacy of the 2020 election.
Aug 03, 2020
A GOP Congressman Who Might Not Vote For Trump
Rep. Will Hurd of Texas’s 23rd Congressional District joins the podcast. He is one of only four Republicans in the House still representing a district that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and he is the only Black Republican in the chamber. He is also retiring at the end of his current term. As he says on the podcast, he is not yet sure whether he will vote for President Trump this fall.
Jul 30, 2020
Biden's VP Pick Could Be Days Away
According to the timeframe Biden laid out, he could announce his choice for a running mate as soon as the end of this week. The crew discusses the upsides and downsides of his various choices.
Jul 27, 2020
The U.S. Still Isn't Prepared For A Pandemic Election
In March, it became clear that states needed to reconfigure in-person voting and significantly scale up mail voting so that Americans could vote during a pandemic. Since then, we’ve seen postponed elections, consolidated polling places, long lines, mail ballots that never reached voters, and long delays in counting those ballots. Will the U.S. be ready in November?
Jul 23, 2020
There Aren't Secret Trump Voters
A recent poll showed that the majority of Pennsylvanians think that people in their community secretly support Trump. The crew explains why that is unlikely. They also consider the future of Black politics as politicians from the Civil Rights Era -- like Rep. John Lewis -- leave office.
Jul 20, 2020
White Democrats Are Wary Of Big Ideas To Address Racial Inequality
In recent weeks, public opinion has moved significantly in favor of Black Lives Matter and more people have taken the view that Black people face discrimination in America. But is there public support for policies that could address that discrimination? FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and political science professor Meredith Conroy discuss what the polls can tell us.
Jul 16, 2020
COVID-19 Deaths Are Rising. What Will The U.S. Do?
The crew discusses whether Americans and politicians are in agreement on how to respond to the recent surge in coronavirus cases. The also interrogate a lesson that some Democrats took away from the 2016 election -- that the party should focus less on "identity politics."
Jul 13, 2020
Conservatives Didn’t Get The SCOTUS They Wanted This Term
FiveThirtyEight legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to look back at a U.S. Supreme Court term full of consequential cases. They also unpack one the final rulings of the term, which permits prosecutors to subpoena the president's financial records.
Jul 09, 2020
How Trump Could Improve His Electoral Odds
The crew considers various strategies that President Trump and Republicans could use to improve their electoral prospects this fall -- ranging from a new running mate to a vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court.
Jul 06, 2020
How The GOP Chose To Be A White Party
FiveThirtyEight's Clare Malone discusses the history of how the GOP became an overwhelmingly white party. Her article on the topic is titled, "The Republican Choice: How a party spent decades making itself white."
Jul 02, 2020
Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas
The crew looks at new polling that shows the clearest picture so far of the presidential race in battleground states. It isn't good for Trump.
Jun 29, 2020
New Voter Registrations Have Nosedived During COVID-19
FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich and Kaleigh Rogers analyze data showing that the number of people registering to vote has fallen off a cliff during the coronavirus pandemic
Jun 25, 2020
Progressives Challenge The Democratic Establishment
The crew looks at the dynamic between Democratic upstarts and the establishment as primary voters head to the polls in New York and Kentucky.
Jun 22, 2020
Model Talk: Biden Leads Trump By 9 Nationally
In this edition of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss FiveThirtyEight's newly published presidential election polling averages.
Jun 18, 2020
Views Of BLM Have Shifted. What Happens Next?
The crew discusses the ways that public opinion on racism has changed during the past three weeks and ask how it will affect our politics.
Jun 15, 2020
The Protests Appear To Be Working
New York Times writer Mara Gay and FiveThirtyEight contributor Shom Mazumder join the podcast to discuss the efficacy of the anti-police violence protests so far.
Jun 12, 2020
Americans Don't Like How Trump Is Handling Multiple Crises
The podcast crew looks at President Trump's latest polling for handling the pandemic and mass protests. They also discuss why young voters aren't enthusiastic about Biden.
Jun 08, 2020
Protests, Then And Now
Prof. Yohuru Williams joins Perry Bacon Jr. and Galen Druke to discuss how today's anti-police violence protests compare with past protest movements.
Jun 04, 2020
The Data Behind Police Violence
Sam Sinyangwe joins the podcast to discuss police violence data and the politics of the protests that have spread across the country.
Jun 01, 2020
What Biden's VP Picks Say About Him
Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss the process of choosing a VP and what that choice says about the candidate and the party.
May 28, 2020
Questions About Biden And Trump's Bases
The crew discusses a gaffe Biden made during a conversation about black voters and debates the findings of a new study about white working class voters in the 2016 election.
May 26, 2020
One Virus, A World Full Of Responses
The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how many countries, with different political systems, handle a very similar crisis -- and how the public reacts.
May 21, 2020
Does Trump Really Want A Fight With Obama?
The crew looks at evidence that the coronavirus response has grown more partisan. They also discuss the rationale for an election year conflict between Obama and Trump.
May 18, 2020
Why COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories Are Spreading
Political scientist Joe Uscinski joins the podcast to discuss the spread of COVID-19 conspiracy theories -- why they've formed and what can be done about them.
May 14, 2020
Americans, Not Politicians, Will Decide How We Reopen
The podcast crew discusses the politics and practicalities of states reopening amid the COVID-19 pandemic. They also consider which party is ahead in the race for the Senate.
May 11, 2020
What The 14.7% Unemployment Rate Means
Former Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Erica Groshen joins the podcast to discuss the latest jobs report, which showed a record unemployment level.
May 08, 2020
Biden Responds To Sexual Assault Allegation
The team discusses the politics of Tara Reade's accusations of sexual assault against Biden and Biden's denial. They also weigh the impact of a Justin Amash run for president.
May 04, 2020
The U.S. Is Starting To Reopen. Is It Ready?
States around the country are beginning to reopen. Professor Crystal Watson of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health discusses the systems they should have in place.
Apr 30, 2020
Is COVID-19 Already Hurting Trump Politically?
The crew analyzes recent data showing Trump losing ground in swing states. They also ask how much reactions to the pandemic have been based on partisanship.
Apr 27, 2020
Model Talk: Forecasting The Toll Of COVID-19
Dr. Chris Murray, creator of the frequently cited IHME COVID-19 model, joins a special edition of Model Talk.
Apr 22, 2020
What Is Motivating The COVID-19 Protests?
The crew discusses why protests against COVID-19 mitigation measures have popped up around the country. They also weigh the pros and cons of Biden's potential VP picks.
Apr 20, 2020
How To Hold An Election During A Crisis
What has the United States done to ensure elections continue during past crises and what can the country do now to ensure this fall's election goes smoothly?
Apr 16, 2020
Our 2020 Election Priors
Now that Democrats have settled on Joe Biden, the crew discusses their priors for the presidential general election. They also track where we are in the COVID-19 pandemic.
Apr 13, 2020
Emergency Podcast: Sanders Drops Out
The crew reacts to Sen. Bernie Sanders's decision to suspend his campaign for president.
Apr 08, 2020
Wisconsin's Election Is A Mess
The crew digs into the challenges facing Wisconsin's election, given partisanship and the COVID-19 pandemic. They also take stock of where we are in the arc of the crisis.
Apr 06, 2020
Why It's So Hard To Forecast The Impact Of COVID-19
FiveThirtyEight's science writer Maggie Koerth and quantitative editor Laura Bronner join the podcast to discuss the challenges of modeling the impact of COVID-19.
Apr 02, 2020
Why Trump's Approval Rating Has Increased
The crew discusses where we are in the arc of the COVID-19 crisis, how Americans are rating the president's performance, and the significance of the DPA.
Mar 30, 2020
COVID-19 Broke The Jobless Claims Chart
Economics reporter Ben Casselman joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the stunning unemployment claims numbers from last week.
Mar 26, 2020
How COVID-19 Is -- And Isn't -- Changing Politics
The crew discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the politics of Washington, D.C. and how it's disrupting the 2020 presidential race.
Mar 23, 2020
How COVID-19 Is Changing The Economy
Economist Tara Sinclair joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic so far.
Mar 20, 2020
How COVID-19 Affected Tuesday's Vote
FiveThirtyEight's Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday night's primary elections.
Mar 18, 2020
Coronavirus, Uncertainty, Politics
The crew discusses the coronavirus crisis and the uncertainty and politics surrounding it.
Mar 16, 2020
Biden And Sanders Debate Amid Pandemic
The crew reacts to the first Biden vs. Sanders one-on-one debate, which took place amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Mar 16, 2020
The Democratic Primary Is No Longer Competitive
The crew reacts to the latest round of Democratic primary results, in which Biden far outperformed Sanders.
Mar 11, 2020
Is Even Coronavirus Partisan?
The crew discusses the results of a poll on coronavirus and previews the upcoming primary races.
Mar 09, 2020
Model Talk: Biden Is A Clear Favorite
Mar 06, 2020
Emergency Podcast: Warren Drops Out
The crew reacts to the news that Sen. Elizabeth Warren is suspending her campaign for president.
Mar 05, 2020
Biden Won Super Tuesday. What Now?
The crew reacts to Joe Biden's very strong performance on Super Tuesday and asks what comes next.
Mar 04, 2020
What's At Stake On Super Tuesday
The crew previews the races that will be decided on Super Tuesday and debates the effect Buttigieg's dropout will have.
Mar 02, 2020
Biden Wins Big In South Carolina
The crew reacts to Biden's big win in South Carolina and discusses what comes next in what looks to be a two person race.
Mar 01, 2020
How Rep. James Clyburn Settled On Endorsing Biden
Rep. James Clyburn endorsed Joe Biden on Wednesday. Galen Druke sat down with Clyburn ahead of his endorsement to discuss Biden, South Carolina and the Democratic Party.
Feb 26, 2020
What Went Down In The South Carolina Debate
The crew reacts to a messy Democratic debate in South Carolina.
Feb 26, 2020
Sanders Wins Big In Nevada
Nate Silver and editor of the Nevada Independent, Jon Ralston, join the podcast from Las Vegas to discuss the results of the Nevada caucuses.
Feb 23, 2020
Bloomberg Stumbles In Chaotic Debate
In a late night edition of the podcast, the crew reacts to the Nevada Democratic primary debate.
Feb 20, 2020
Can Bloomberg Win?!
The crew discusses Michael Bloomberg's chances of winning the nomination. They also debate whether Bernie Sanders has a lock on the Nevada caucuses.
Feb 18, 2020
Model Talk: The Chance Of Chaos Increases
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the Democratic primary forecast has updated since the New Hampshire primary.
Feb 14, 2020
Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire
The crew reacts to the results of the New Hampshire primary, including a Sanders win, a close second for Buttigieg and a surprise third place finish for Klobuchar.
Feb 12, 2020
Live From Manchester: A New Hampshire Preview
At a live show in Manchester, the crew previews the New Hampshire primary, debates the likelihood of a contested convention and plays a game!
Feb 10, 2020
Live From The New Hampshire Debate
The crew reacts to the Democratic primary debate in New Hampshire, from the spin room.
Feb 08, 2020
The Results In Iowa
The crew discusses the results -- so far -- from the Iowa caucuses. They also check in on the race in New Hampshire and the vote to acquit President Trump.
Feb 06, 2020
Chaos In Iowa
The crew discusses the lack of results in the Democratic Iowa caucuses.
Feb 04, 2020
Model Talk: What To Expect From The Iowa Caucuses
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latest polling in the final day before the Iowa caucuses.
Feb 02, 2020
Stacey Abrams Thinks She'll Be President By 2040
As part of our When Women Run series, Clare Malone sat down with Stacey Abrams, former candidate for governor of Georgia.
Jan 31, 2020
When Women Run
To better understand what it's really like to run for office as a woman, we spoke to women from every state who have done it -- 97 women in all. These are their stories.
Jan 29, 2020
The Sanders Surge
The crew assesses Bernie Sanders's improvement in the polls a week before the Iowa caucuses. They also discuss reporting from John Bolton's new book.
Jan 27, 2020
The Primaries Project: There's Gotta Be A Better System...Right?
This is the third installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.
Jan 23, 2020
How Senators Are Calculating Impeachment Politics
FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join Galen Druke to discuss the political considerations at play in President Trump's impeachment trial.
Jan 22, 2020
Live From DC: America's Favorite Sandwich
In front of a live audience in DC, the crew debates the electoral cases of the leading Democratic candidates. The also discuss electability and guess what America thinks.
Jan 20, 2020
The Primaries Project: The Effects Of Reform
This is the second installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.
Jan 16, 2020
The Last Pre-Iowa Debate
The crew reacts to the candidates' performances in the last Democratic primary debate before the Iowa caucuses.
Jan 15, 2020
A Four-Way Pileup In Iowa
The crew discusses the latest polling in Iowa, showing a tight four-way race. They also talk about Booker's decision to dropout and Tom Steyer's polling in NV and SC.
Jan 13, 2020
Model Talk: The Primary Forecast Is Live
FiveThirtyEight's 2020 Democratic primary forecast is live. In a new installment of "Model Talk" Nate Silver discusses what went into creating it.
Jan 10, 2020
The Primaries Project: How 1968 Changed Everything
This is the first installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American history.
Jan 09, 2020
How The Iran Conflict Could Affect 2020
The team discusses the political implication's of President Trump's decision to kill Iran's Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani in a drone strike.
Jan 06, 2020
The Biggest Political Moments Of 2019
The podcast crew looks back at the biggest political moments of 2019 and looks ahead to the most pressing questions of 2020.
Dec 30, 2019
Eggnog And Listener Questions
In this holiday installment of the podcast, the crew drinks eggnog and answers questions from listeners.
Dec 23, 2019
The House Impeaches President Trump
President Donald Trump became the third president in American history to be impeached on Thursday. The podcast team discusses how we got here and what comes next.
Dec 19, 2019
Do Voters' Second Choices Matter?
The crew previews what to expect from this week's likely impeachment vote and debate how much voters' second choices matter in the Democratic primary.
Dec 16, 2019
Conservatives Win Big In The UK Election
University of Cambridge political scientists Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to break down the results of the 2019 British general election.
Dec 13, 2019
The Primary According To The Early States
The crew shares a preview of FiveThirtyEight's polling averages in the early states. They also discuss the path Trump's presidency is on.
Dec 09, 2019
The Legal Experts And The Polls
We review the House testimony from legal scholars on whether Trump committed an impeachable offense and check out the results of our polling collaboration with Ipsos.
Dec 04, 2019
Emergency Podcast: Harris Drops Out
The crew reacts to Sen. Kamala Harris's decision to drop out of the Democratic primary.
Dec 03, 2019
Is The Party Deciding?
The crew looks at which candidates are racking up endorsements and whether there's a meaningful trend in favor of Biden. They also take stock of Harris's troubles on the trail
Dec 02, 2019
A Very FiveThirtyEight Thanksgiving
The crew discusses public opinion on impeachment and plays a Thanksgiving-inspired game.
Nov 25, 2019
What Went Down In The 5th Democratic Debate
In a late night podcast, the crew reacts to the fifth Democratic primary debate.
Nov 21, 2019
Impeachment Hearings Day 4: Sondland Testifies
The crew reacts to U.S. Ambassador to the E.U. Gordon Sondland's testimony in the fourth day of public impeachment hearings.
Nov 20, 2019
Impeachment Hearings Day 3: The Phone Call
The crew discusses what went down during the third day of public impeachment hearings.
Nov 20, 2019
The Buttigieg Bump 2.0
The crew discusses the latest polling out of Iowa, showing a shakeup in the race there. They also ask why education levels are such a key factor in how people vote.
Nov 18, 2019
Yovanovich Testifies, Trump Attacks
The crew reacts to the second day of public impeachment hearings.
Nov 15, 2019
Public Impeachment Hearings Begin
The crew reacts to the first of many public impeachment hearings on President Trump's attempt to pressure Ukraine to investigate a political rival.
Nov 13, 2019
The FiveThirtyNATE Podcast
The New York Times's Nate Cohn joins the podcast to discuss battleground state polling, the Electoral College and the state of the Democratic primary.
Nov 11, 2019
What The 2019 Election Results Mean
FiveThirtyEight election analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley break down the results of the 2019 elections.
Nov 06, 2019
Free-For-All In Iowa
The crew previews the key elections on the ballot this Election Day and debates the role healthcare is playing in Sen. Elizabeth Warren's plateauing in national polls.
Nov 04, 2019
Exit Interview: Tim Ryan
Rep. Tim Ryan exited the presidential race last week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an "exit interview."
Oct 31, 2019
What Should Republicans Do?
The crew debates the savviest political strategy for Senate Republicans on the issue of impeachment. They also discuss the death of al-Baghdadi and disagreement in the polls.
Oct 28, 2019
The Taylor Testimony
The crew discusses the significance of U.S. envoy to Ukraine William Taylor's testimony. He claimed Trump made military aid contingent on politically-motivated investigations.
Oct 23, 2019
Medicare For Fall
The podcast crew discusses the politics of Medicare for All in the Democratic primary. They also look at the latest impeachment polling.
Oct 21, 2019
Warren In The Hot Seat
The crew reacts to the fourth Democratic primary debate.
Oct 16, 2019
What To Look For In The 4th Debate
The crew discusses the latest impeachment polling and previews the fourth Democratic primary debate.
Oct 14, 2019
Impeachment 101
Law professor Kate Shaw joins the podcast to discuss the laws and history behind impeachment and how they apply to today.
Oct 10, 2019
Is Ukraine Getting Worse For Trump?
The podcast crew reviews the latest news in the impeachment inquiry and discusses the two parties' strategies. They also ask if Joe Biden is the Democratic frontrunner.
Oct 07, 2019
How TV's Evolution Explains Our Politics
New York Times TV critic James Poniewozik joins the podcast to explain how changes in television over the past forty years have shaped American politics.
Oct 03, 2019
Impeachment Is Becoming More Popular
The crew looks at how public opinion on impeaching President Trump has changed in the week since Speaker Pelosi announced a formal inquiry.
Sep 30, 2019
The Whistleblower's Complaint
It's only been 48 hours since we last recorded, but a lot has happened. We discuss the release of Trump's Ukraine call summary, the whistleblower's complaint and more.
Sep 26, 2019
What An Impeachment Inquiry Might Mean
The crew gathers to discuss Nancy Pelosi's decision to launch an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. How'd we get here, and what might come next?
Sep 24, 2019
Are Democrats Ready To Impeach Trump?
The crew discusses how the Ukraine story could change the impeachment conversation for Democrats. They also debate whether Elizabeth Warren is now the frontrunner in Iowa.
Sep 23, 2019
We Ran Into Andrew Yang At The Airport
Nate and Galen ran into Andrew Yang waiting for the same return flight from the debate in Houston last week. They asked if he'd record a podcast and he obliged.
Sep 19, 2019
The State Of *Both* 2020 Primaries
The crew discusses the latest post-debate polling and what the GOP primary is teaching us about Trump's electoral strengths and weaknesses.
Sep 16, 2019
What Went Down In The Third Democratic Debate
The crew reacts to the third Democratic primary debate from the spin room floor in Houston, Texas.
Sep 13, 2019
How To Own The Debate
The crew discusses possible strategies for the candidates on stage in the Democratic primary debate on Thursday.
Sep 09, 2019
The Gerrymandering Fight Moves To The States
A North Carolina court panel threw out the state's legislative maps as a partisan gerrymander this week. Nancy Martorano Miller and Dave Wasserman discuss the implications.
Sep 05, 2019
And Then There Were Ten
The crew discusses the dynamic of the third Democratic primary debate, in which ten candidates will face off on a single night. They also ask: good use or bad use of polling?
Sep 03, 2019
A Constitutional Crisis In Britain?
Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss Boris Johnson's suspension of parliament and the politics of Brexit.
Aug 29, 2019
The Winnowing Begins
The crew takes a look at who has dropped out of the Democratic primary and why. They also assess the political risk of a hypothetical downturn in the economy.
Aug 26, 2019
The 2019 Elections
FiveThirtyEight elections analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley join the podcast to discuss the races on the ballot in 2019 and the current national environment.
Aug 22, 2019
Elizabeth Warren's Comeback
The crew discusses how Elizabeth Warren gained ground after polling fifth or sixth nationally a handful of months ago. They also ask what's changed since the El Paso shooting.
Aug 19, 2019
Trump's Trade War Puts His Biggest Asset At Risk
International economist Mary Lovely joins the podcast to discuss the effects of President Trump's trade war with China.
Aug 15, 2019
How Much Does Iowa Matter?
Following a weekend during which the 2020 candidates flooded Iowa, the crew debates the significance of the first-in-the-nation caucus state.
Aug 12, 2019
"The Best Pollster In Politics"
Ann Selzer, who conducts the "Iowa Poll" and has an A+ rating in FiveThirtyEight's pollster rankings, talks about the challenges of polling Iowa in 2020.
Aug 08, 2019
Can Trump's Words Incite Violence?
The podcast team discusses the weekend's mass shootings and the relationship between political rhetoric and violence.
Aug 05, 2019
Live From Detroit: The State Of The Race Post-Debates
The crew discusses the debates and the state of the 2020 Democratic primary race in downtown Detroit.
Aug 02, 2019
Democrats Battle It Out
The left and moderate flanks of the Democratic Party debated big ideas in the second primary debate. Nate and Galen react from downtown Detroit.
Jul 31, 2019
Are Democrats Moving Too Far Left?
The crew debates the risks for 2020 Democrats of taking unpopular positions on issues like healthcare and immigration. The also discuss Democrats' next steps on impeachment.
Jul 29, 2019
Mueller Talks
After months of back-and-forth with Democrats, former special counsel Robert Mueller testified before the U.S. House Judiciary and Intelligence committees on Wednesday.
Jul 24, 2019
Racial Resentment As A Political Strategy
The podcast crew discusses the role that racial resentment played in the 2016 and 2018 elections and debates whether Trump could use it to his advantage in 2020.
Jul 22, 2019
Who's Going To Win Pennsylvania In 2020?
The podcast heads to Pennsylvania to discuss the state's political trends and what they mean for 2020.
Jul 18, 2019
Trump's Racist Tweets
The podcast team discusses Trump's tweets appearing to target a group of congresswomen of color. They also debate the odds of a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Kentucky.
Jul 15, 2019
Exit Interview: Eric Swalwell
Rep. Eric Swalwell exited the presidential race this week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an "exit interview."
Jul 11, 2019
Is Biden Still The Front-Runner?
The podcast crew debates whether Joe Biden is still the front-runner in the Democratic primary race. They also discuss Rep. Justin Amash's decision to leave the GOP.
Jul 08, 2019
The Verdict On The Debates
The podcast crew digs into data about how voters reacted to the first debates. They also discuss the new sexual assault accusation against President Trump.
Jul 01, 2019
Harris Wins Narrative. We'll See About The Voters.
The crew reacts to night two of the first Democratic primary debates.
Jun 28, 2019
What Went Down At The First Democratic Debate
The podcast team reacts to night one of the first Democratic primary debates.
Jun 27, 2019
Lanes Emerge In The Democratic Primary
The crew re-assesses the significance of "lanes" in the Democratic primary and looks at Trump's Iran strategy.
Jun 24, 2019
What's At Stake In The Final Week Of SCOTUS Decisions
Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to discuss key decisions the Supreme Court has made so far, and what is at stake in the final 12 cases.
Jun 21, 2019
Who Is Persuadable In 2020?
As Trump kicks off his reelection campaign, the crew debates who is persuadable in 2020. They also discuss the Democratic primary debate lineups.
Jun 17, 2019
A Republican Strategist's Guide To 2020
Republican strategist and pollster Bill McInturff joins the podcast to discuss his report, "What Republicans Need to Know as We Move Toward the 2020 Election."
Jun 13, 2019
Is Elizabeth Warren Surging?
The crew examines whether the popular narrative of Elizabeth Warren's breakthrough is reflected in the data. They also discuss why Joe Biden backtracked on the Hyde Amendment.
Jun 10, 2019
The D.C. Statehood Episode
Representative Eleanor Holmes Norton and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer join the podcast to discuss Democrats' efforts to make D.C. the nation's 51st state.
Jun 06, 2019
Are Voters Sexist?
The crew discusses what we know about how voters respond to female candidates and how the women running for president in 2020 are navigating questions about their identity.
Jun 03, 2019
Are Nationalist Victories Around The World Connected?
University of Cambridge professors Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss what appear to be a string of similar outcomes in elections around the world.
May 31, 2019
Is Pelosi's Trump Strategy Working?
The crew discusses whether last week's back-and-forth between Pelosi and Trump achieved its reported goal. They also look at head-to-head polling in the Democratic primary.
May 28, 2019
What We Can Learn From Tracking Trump's Falsehoods
The Washington Post has been tracking every false or misleading claim Trump has made while in office. In this episode, we dig into the database.
May 23, 2019
Have Americans Changed Their Minds On Abortion?
The politics team examines Bill de Blasio's theory of the case, the rationale behind seemingly conflicting numbers on abortion and ask if Democrats can win the Senate in 2020.
May 20, 2019
Why Some States Are Passing New Abortion Restrictions
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey signed the most restrictive abortion law in recent U.S. history into law on Wednesday. It's part of a larger trend of changing state level abortion law.
May 16, 2019
The Politics Of Impeaching Trump
The crew debates the possible political repercussions for Democrats of moving to impeach Trump. They also look at how some on the left have tried to discredit a CNN poll.
May 13, 2019
Live From Houston: What Happened To The Bush GOP?
In a live taping from Houston, Texas, the crew discusses how and why the GOP has changed from the party of Bush to the party of Trump. They also play a 2020 primary draft.
May 09, 2019
Live From Austin: Will Texas Be A Battleground In 2020?
The crew is in Austin, Texas, where they debate whether the Lone Star State will be a battleground in 2020. They also play a heated round of trivia.
May 07, 2019
Mueller's Letter To Barr
Special Counsel Mueller wrote AG Barr a letter expressing concerns about how he'd characterized the report's findings to Congress. The podcast crew reacts.
May 01, 2019
Peto Buttichar 2020
The crew discusses the Democratic Party's reaction to Joe Biden entering the presidential race. They also ask why Sanders and Warren don't have more crossover support.
Apr 29, 2019
How Joe Biden Could Win
Former Vice President Joe Biden announced his candidacy for president on Thursday. The crew discusses the reasons he could win the nomination or come up short.
Apr 25, 2019
We Have The Mueller Report. Now What?
The crew discusses how the various players are positioning themselves now that the Mueller report is public. Plus, the Democratic primary field expanded again.
Apr 22, 2019
Emergency Podcast: The Mueller Report
The podcast team reacts to the release of the redacted Mueller report.
Apr 18, 2019
The State Of The Democratic Primary
As the first quarter of 2019 comes to a close, the crew gives an assessment of state of the 2020 Democratic primary.
Apr 15, 2019
How Good Are FiveThirtyEight Forecasts?
Our "Model Talk" series returns briefly to discuss the performance of FiveThirtyEight's forecast models over the past decade. We crunched the numbers and the results are in!
Apr 11, 2019
Do Democrats Want An Outsider In 2020?
The crew debates the appeal of a political outsider for Democrats in 2020. They also look at the class divide among white voters how that affects their political behavior.
Apr 08, 2019
The Electoral College Episode
Julia Azari and Seth Masket join the podcast to discuss the arguments for and against the Electoral College and how likely it is to actually change.
Apr 04, 2019
What Will Biden Do?
Joe Biden has been accused of inappropriately touching a former legislator at a campaign event. Will that change his calculus about whether to get in the race?
Apr 01, 2019
Can Statistics Solve Gerrymandering?
Mathematician Moon Duchin joins Nate Silver and Galen Druke to discuss a method for spotting partisan gerrymandering that the Supreme Court considered Tuesday.
Mar 28, 2019
Life After The Mueller Report
The crew reacts to the principal findings of the Mueller report, according to Attorney General Bill Barr.
Mar 25, 2019
Emergency Podcast: Mueller Has Filed His Report
In this emergency podcast, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to discuss what comes next now that Special Counsel Mueller has filed his report.
Mar 22, 2019
Live From NY: It's A 2020 Draft!
In a live taping of the podcast, the crew competes in a draft of the 2020 primary candidates. They also play "Good Use of Polling or Bad Use of Polling?"
Mar 21, 2019
Ranking 2020 Rollouts
The crew takes stock of which candidates have done the best job introducing themselves in the early months of the primary.
Mar 18, 2019
The Moment Of Truth For Brexit
David Runciman and Helen Thompson from the British "Talking Politics" podcast discuss the week in Brexit and what comes next.
Mar 15, 2019
How Beto O'Rourke Could Win
Former El Paso congressman Beto O'Rourke is running for president. The crew discusses how he could win -- or lose -- the Democratic primary.
Mar 14, 2019
How Divided Are Democrats?
The podcast crew analyzes the divisions within the Democratic Party and makes sense of why potential 2020 candidates like Sherrod Brown decided not to run.
Mar 11, 2019
Iowa And New Hampshire Can Go To Hell
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Why do those four states vote first and does the lineup make sense?
Mar 07, 2019
Should We Cancel The Electoral College?
The podcast crew discusses the latest candidate announcements, whether party endorsements matter, and the merits of the Electoral College.
Mar 04, 2019
What We Learned From Cohen's Testimony
The podcast team reacts to a day of testimony from President Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen.
Feb 28, 2019
Our Best (Or Worst) Show
The podcast crew discusses absentee ballot fraud in North Carolina and the threat of a primary challenge to Trump. They also play a round of "Guess What Americans Think."
Feb 25, 2019
All The President's Investigations
The word is that Mueller will wrap up his investigation next week. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux shares an overview of the legal troubles that will continue to follow the president.
Feb 22, 2019
How Bernie Sanders Could Win
Sen. Bernie Sanders is running for president. The team describes both his path to success and failure in the primary. They also follow up on Trump's emergency declaration.
Feb 19, 2019
National Emergency Podcast
The crew reacts to the news that President Trump plans to declare a national emergency at the southern border. Vox's Dara Lind also joins to discuss the border security deal.
Feb 14, 2019
How Amy Klobuchar Could Win
The crew discusses the arguments for and against Sen. Amy Klobuchar winning the Democratic nomination. They also assess the politics of the Green New Deal.
Feb 11, 2019
The Mess In Virginia
Democratic politics in Virginia are in upheaval. The team reacts to the scandals facing each of the top three Democrats in the state -- the governor, lt. governor and AG.
Feb 07, 2019
The Politics Of Taxing The Rich
Some Democrats are floating new taxes on the super rich. The crew discusses the politics of those proposals. They also assess Cory Booker's path to the nomination.
Feb 04, 2019
The Perot Effect
What effect do third party candidates have in a two party system? This is an audio documentary about Ross Perot and the 1992 election that originally aired in October 2016.
Feb 02, 2019
Do Americans Want A Candidate Like Howard Schultz?
In light of Howard Schultz's possible presidential run as a "centrist independent," the crew discusses the appetite for such a candidate among Americans.
Jan 31, 2019
Shutdown Lessons (And 2020 Announcements)
The crew discusses the political repercussions of the government shutdown and considers two Democratic presidential contenders -- Pete Buttigieg and Tulsi Gabbard.
Jan 28, 2019
What To Make Of Roger Stone's Indictment
In this installment of Mueller Talk, Amelia Thomson-Deveaux discusses the implications of longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone's indictment.
Jan 25, 2019
How Kamala Harris Could Win
The crew analyzes what Harris's path to the nomination could look like. They also react to Mueller's statement on the Buzzfeed report and discuss the role of the young left.
Jan 22, 2019
Emergency Podcast: The Suborn Identity
In this emergency installment, the crew reacts to a Buzzfeed News report that President Trump directed his lawyer, Michael Cohen, to lie to Congress.
Jan 18, 2019
How Kirsten Gillibrand Could Win
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is the latest in the Democratic field to make official moves toward running for president. The crew discusses her case for the nomination. Note: At 17:40, Nate Silver's audio may be a bit unclear. He says, "It's not that logical because, number one, a lot of Democrats are concerned about senators who allegedly grope people."
Jan 16, 2019
How Julian Castro Could Win
The crew discusses what Julian Castro's path to the Democratic nomination could look like. They also lay out a rubric for evaluating candidate strengths and talk shutdown.
Jan 14, 2019
Will Trump Face A Primary Challenge?
Is Trump in danger of a serious challenge for the Republican nomination in 2020? Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss.
Jan 10, 2019
How Elizabeth Warren Could Win
The crew discusses the paths to Elizabeth Warren winning -- and losing -- the 2020 Democratic nomination. They also look at the political repercussions of the shutdown.
Jan 07, 2019
The Gerrymandering Project: Arizona
In 2018, more states decided to put independent commissions in charge of redistricting. Arizona serves as an example of some of the challenges those commissions can face.
Dec 31, 2018
Our 2018 Politics Awards
The crew looks back on the year in politics and gives out made up awards. They also share resolutions for 2019.
Dec 24, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Mattis Is Out, Shutdown Is On (?)
In an emergency episode of the podcast, the crew discusses Defense Secretary Jim Mattis's departure and the looming government shutdown.
Dec 21, 2018
Should Democrats Play Dirty?
Democrats backed off a plan that would gerrymander New Jersey, while Republicans went ahead with a power grab in Wisconsin. The crew discusses why the parties play differently
Dec 17, 2018
The Brexit Episode
Two political science professors from the University of Cambridge join the podcast to explain what happened in Britain this week and what comes next.
Dec 13, 2018
Trump's Turbulent Week
President Trump is continuing to face possible legal trouble over campaign finance violations, meanwhile the White House is in the middle of another staffing shakeup.
Dec 10, 2018
Something Is Fishy In North Carolina
The crew reflects on how politics have changed since President H. W. Bush's time in office. They also speak with Prof. Michael Bitzer about possible election fraud in NC-09.
Dec 03, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Cohen Is Cooperating With Mueller
In an emergency installment, the crew reacts to news that Michael Cohen pleaded guilty for lying to Congress about the details of a potential Trump project in Moscow.
Nov 29, 2018
This Is Mueller Talk!
After months of silence, the Mueller investigation is making news again. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to make sense of a big week of revelations.
Nov 29, 2018
Can A Democrat Win In Mississippi?
The final Senate election of 2018 is scheduled for Tuesday in Mississippi. The crew discusses the fault lines at play of race, geography and class.
Nov 26, 2018
Will Pelosi Be Replaced?
The Democrats have a majority in the House, now they need a Speaker. The crew discusses whether Nancy Pelosi will be re-elected and what the vote says about the party.
Nov 19, 2018
How Our Model Did
In this post-mortem episode of "Model Talk," Nate discusses how our forecasts did and how we can improve them going forward.
Nov 15, 2018
A Post-Midterms 2020 Draft... Live!
Live from New York, the team ranks the politicians most likely to win the 2020 Democratic primary. They also debrief on the latest results from the midterms.
Nov 12, 2018
Midterms Review
The team looks at some the underlying data from the 2018 midterms to understand the trends at play.
Nov 08, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Sessions Is Out
President Trump has fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions and is replacing him with someone who may curtain the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts.
Nov 07, 2018
Election Night Wrap-Up: Write Your Own Narrative
Clare Malone, Micah Cohen, and Jody Avirgan gather in the podcast studio at the end of a long election night to talk about what we learned and what's next.
Nov 07, 2018
A Guide To Election Night
We walk you through the key races to watch, hour by hour, as the polls close on election night.
Nov 06, 2018
The Final Countdown
The crew reviews the forecasts and other indicators for a final time before Election Day. They also ask whether Trump's appeals on immigration will help Republicans.
Nov 05, 2018
How To Judge The Model's Performance
In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver explains how to judge the model's performance, given that we expect the less likely scenario to happen sometimes.
Nov 02, 2018
Debating Our Own House Forecast
We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our House forecast.
Nov 01, 2018
Debating Our Own Senate Forecast
We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our Senate forecast.
Oct 31, 2018
The Most Important Races You Aren't Watching
There are over 6,000 state legislative races on the ballot this fall and they'll play a big role in Americans' lives. Over a hundred ballot measures are also up for a vote.
Oct 30, 2018
Do Toxic Politics Lead To Violence?
The crew reacts to the spate of violence over the past week and asks whether toxic politics are to blame.
Oct 29, 2018
The Early Vote Is Not In The Model
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains why he doesn't use the early vote to help forecast election results. He also answers questions from listeners.
Oct 26, 2018
The Campaign Ads Dominating 2018
The parties are spending billions on advertising this cycle. The team looks at which topics are mentioned the most in order to understand the parties' priorities.
Oct 25, 2018
How Voting Laws Will Affect The Midterms
New voting laws in Georgia and North Dakota are under the spotlight in the run up to Election Day. We discuss how those and other voting laws can affect elections.
Oct 23, 2018
These Fundraising Numbers Are Unprecedented
House Democrats have about a two to one advantage over Republicans in individual contributions. The crew debates how to make sense of that historic advantage.
Oct 22, 2018
The Governors Forecast Is Live
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver discusses key races in the newly released governors forecast and answers listener questions.
Oct 17, 2018
Early Indicators Of Who Is Running In 2020
The team considers whether Democrats can perform well in the Midterms based on their advantages among women alone. The also look at early indicators of who is running in 2020.
Oct 15, 2018
The Forecasts Are Diverging
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains the hypotheses for why the House and Senate forecasts are diverging and answers questions from listeners.
Oct 11, 2018
Live: Are Any Of The Post-Kavanaugh Narratives Right?
At a live show in DC, the crew debates the political consequences of the Kavanaugh episode. They also weigh the importance of tipping point Senate races and play a game.
Oct 09, 2018
Collins Says Yes On Kavanaugh
The crew discusses how Brett Kavanaugh's all-but-certain confirmation to the Supreme Court might affect the midterms.
Oct 05, 2018
The Ultimate Romney-Clinton District
Galen Druke heads to a traditionally Republican district in Houston, Texas that swung 23 points towards Hillary Clinton in 2016. The district is rated as a toss-up in 2018.
Oct 03, 2018
We Have New Polling On Kavanaugh
The first batch of polls is out since Judge Brett Kavanaugh's testimony last Thursday. The crew discusses how the public is reacting.
Oct 01, 2018
Flake News!
The podcast crew reacts to Senator Jeff Flake's call for an FBI investigation into allegations against Brett Kavanaugh.
Sep 28, 2018
The Ford/Kavanaugh Testimony
The podcast team reacts to the Judiciary Committee testimony of Professor Christine Blasey Ford and Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
Sep 28, 2018
Fire Rosenstein? Withdraw Kavanaugh? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
In a special live taping of the podcast, the crew discusses the future of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
Sep 25, 2018
The Model Is 7,000 Lines Of Code
In this installment of Model Talk Nate discusses how unexpected events affect the model and answers listener questions about how long the model is and where it's stored.
Sep 20, 2018
Kavanaugh's Confirmation Is In Trouble
The crew discusses the political response to an accusation from a woman who says Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her in high school.
Sep 17, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Manafort Is Cooperating
President Trump's former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, is cooperating with the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts to the news.
Sep 14, 2018
The Senate Forecast Is Live
In the latest installment of Model Talk, Nate discusses why the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast favors Republicans.
Sep 12, 2018
Stop Catering To Idiots
The crew reacts to the latest news about the inner workings of the Trump administration and explores the Upshot's foray into live polling.
Sep 10, 2018
How Useful Are SCOTUS Confirmation Hearings?
After three days of Supreme Court nomination hearings, Perry Bacon Jr. and Oliver Roeder discuss what, if anything, they learned.
Sep 07, 2018
Is The Path Of Trump's Presidency Set?
The crew is using the Labor Day holiday to take a step back from the news of the moment and assess how President Trump is faring after more than a year and a half in office.
Sep 03, 2018
Debugging The Model
In this episode of Model Talk, Nate talks about debugging the model and answers questions from listeners, including one surprise listener by the name of Rush.
Aug 30, 2018
Impeachment: A FiveThirtyEight Debate
The crew discusses the legacy of Senator John McCain. They also debate how Democrats should approach the question of impeachment.
Aug 27, 2018
What Does It Mean To Be 'Electable'?
Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari discuss what "electability" means and consider whether it's a useful term for assessing candidates.
Aug 23, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Cohen + Manafort = !!!
The podcast crew reacts to a guilty plea from Michael Cohen and a guilty verdict for Paul Manafort on the same day.
Aug 21, 2018
Democrats Are Competing Everywhere
The crew discusses their takeaways from the new 2018 House forecast. They also sort through new data on how Trump voters' views have evolved or not since 2016.
Aug 20, 2018
The Upset Of The Season
In the heat of the news of Justice Kennedy's retirement, this podcast might have been lost forever. The team reacts to a major primary upset in New York's 14th district.
Jun 28, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Kennedy Is Retiring
The podcast team reacts to the news that Justice Anthony Kennedy is retiring from the U.S. Supreme Court.
Jun 27, 2018
Is Immigration The Issue of 2018?
The team discusses the continuing fallout from Trump's policy of separating families that illegally cross the border. They also ask why there aren't more GOP women in Congress
Jun 25, 2018
Bonus Episode: Masculinity In 2018
FiveThirtyEight partnered with WNYC's Death, Sex & Money podcast to do a survey asking what men think about being a man in 2018.
Jun 21, 2018
The Immigration Flashpoint
The team discusses the separation of children and parents at the border and the role that immigration plays in the GOP. They also react to a SCOTUS decision on gerrymandering.
Jun 18, 2018
Emergency Podcast: The Inspector General's Report
Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr. discuss the political implications of the inspector general's report on the 2016 FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton.
Jun 14, 2018
The Super Tuesday Of The Midterms
Eight states are holding primary contests on Tuesday, including California, where the top two primary system could create some interesting results.
Jun 04, 2018
The Polls Are All Right
FiveThirtyEight has updated its pollster ratings for the first time since before the 2016 election. Nate and Galen discuss the state of polling and what to expect in 2018.
May 31, 2018
Things Look Less Good For Dems
Democrats' advantage in generic ballot polling has declined in recent months. The crew debates what that tells us about their prospects this fall.
May 29, 2018
A Year Of Mueller
The team takes stock of where the Mueller probe stands one year on. They also discuss Democrats' debate over reducing the role of superdelegates in presidential primaries.
May 21, 2018
A Democratic Squabble In Texas
Does the fault line in the Democratic Party really run through Texas's 7th district? Clare and Galen compare the candidates in what's become a contentious Democratic primary.
May 17, 2018
Partisanship Is A Hell Of A Drug
The team discusses partisanship in the first of a series of conversations about the midterms called "Priors." They also look at Americans' views of Trump's foreign policy.
May 14, 2018
Special Episode: Chasing Hillary
Nate Silver and Clare Malone sit down Amy Chozick, the author of "Chasing Hillary: Ten Years, Two Presidential Campaigns, and One Intact Glass Ceiling."
May 10, 2018
Primary Season Begins
Tuesday is the fist big primary Election Day of the 2018 midterms. The team discusses the most important races to watch. They also debate whether Trump deserves more credit.
May 07, 2018
The Giuliani Rampage Podcast
President Trump's new lawyer Rudy Giuliani contradicted the president about payments to Stormy Daniels during a two-day long media rampage.
May 04, 2018
How Much Trouble Is Manchin In?
Joe Manchin is one of ten Democrats defending a Senate seat in a state Trump won. The team looks at the Republicans vying to challenge him in West Virginia.
Apr 30, 2018
About That Texas Poll
The team debates whether the Texas Senate race is actually winnable for the Democrat. They also discuss the special election in Arizona and how to responsibly cover polls.
Apr 23, 2018
The Comey Episode
The crew debates the significance of former FBI Director James Comey's new tell-all book. They also look at public opinion of the recent U.S. airstrikes in Syria.
Apr 16, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Ryan To Retire
House Speaker Paul Ryan announced Wednesday morning that he will not seek reelection in 2018. Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari react to the news.
Apr 11, 2018
The Nightmare Midterms Hack
The team describes what a nightmare elections hack scenario would look like, based on reporting by Clare Malone. They also discuss the continuous scandals at the EPA.
Apr 10, 2018
Emergency Podcast: FBI Raids Trump's Lawyer's Office
The podcast crew responds to the news that the FBI raided the office and home of President Trump's personal lawyer Michael Cohen.
Apr 09, 2018
FiveThirtyEight Family Feud
The team plays a round of "FiveThirtyEight Family Feud" to help determine Trump's strengths and weakness. They also debate the merits of census's new citizenship question.
Apr 03, 2018
Special: Cambridge Analytica, Facebook, and Political Data
Clare Malone and Jody Avirgan speak with Daniel Kreiss of UNC about the use of FB data in the 2016 election -- and beyond. Listen to the history of data and politics series here:
Mar 29, 2018
How Do We Cover Stormy Daniels?
The team debates how to cover the alleged coverup and affair between Stormy Daniels and President Trump. They also dive into new data showing Americans are as divided as ever.
Mar 26, 2018
What If Trump Fired Mueller?
President Trump tore into the investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller this weekend. The team discusses what would happen if Trump fired Mueller.
Mar 19, 2018
The GOP Should Be Freaking Out, PA Edition
Democrat Conor Lamb looks poised to win in a Pennsylvania district that voted for Trump by 20 points. The podcast team discusses what the results mean for the midterms.
Mar 14, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Rexit
President Trump announced Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's firing on twitter Tuesday morning. The podcast team reacts.
Mar 13, 2018
The Most Special Special Election Yet
The crew discusses the candidates and environment heading into Tuesday's special election in Pennsylvania's 18th district - a district that Trump won by 20 points.
Mar 12, 2018
Does Trump's Mood Matter?
The team makes sense of a week of chaos at the White House and what it says about Trump's decision making. They also discuss how academics rank presidential achievement.
Mar 05, 2018
A Turning Point On Guns?
The team discusses whether the high school shooting in Parkland, FL is a turning point in the gun debate. They also play a round of political "would you rather?"
Feb 26, 2018
The Gun Debate
This episode is dedicated entirely to discussing the gun debate. The crew looks at public opinion, political strategy and what is likely to happen next.
Feb 20, 2018
Emergency Podcast: 13 Russians Indicted
The team responds to news that 13 Russians and 3 companies have been indicted in the special counsel investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.
Feb 16, 2018
What's So Wrong With Nancy Pelosi?
The crew debates why Nancy Pelosi is such a target for Republican attacks and whether those attacks will actually move voters.
Feb 12, 2018
Has Trump Remade The GOP?
The team debates whether the Nunes memo was much ado about nothing, and discusses Trump's effect on the Republican Party.
Feb 05, 2018
Which Version Of Trump's Presidency Is Happening?
One year in, the day before Trump's first (proper) State Of The Union address, we revisit the "14 Paths" and discuss what version of President Trump we ended up with.
Jan 29, 2018
The Three-Day Shutdown
The Senate voted to end the shutdown less than three days after it began. Did Democrats get what they wanted? The team also discusses the uptick in Trump's approval rating.
Jan 22, 2018
Emergency Podcast - Government Shutdown
The politics team discusses the repercussions of the government shutdown after the Senate failed to pass a stopgap spending bill Friday night.
Jan 19, 2018
Immigration Showdown
With a government shutdown looming, Democrats and Republicans have hit an impasse over immigration policy. The crew discusses what's at stake.
Jan 16, 2018
The Gerrymandering Project: Conclusion
In the final episode of our gerrymandering series we consider some more radical electoral reforms and look back on the lessons we've learned.
Jan 11, 2018
Oprah, Palace Intrigue And Nuclear War
The crew discusses the possibility of an Oprah presidential run, a new book about the Trump White House and Trump's behavior towards North Korea.
Jan 08, 2018
The Gerrymandering Project: California
California took significant steps to try to rid redistricting of partisan politics. Politicians still sought to influence the process. Did they succeed?
Jan 04, 2018
Our Political Journalism Resolutions
2018 is here! We discuss our political reporting resolutions -- both for ourselves and the media in general -- as we head into a big new year.
Jan 01, 2018
Who's Running In 2020?
The crew throws caution to the wind and debates which Democrats are best positioned to do well in the 2020 presidential primary.
Dec 25, 2017
The Gerrymandering Project: Arizona
The number of competitive congressional elections has fallen dramatically in recent decades. Arizona tried to combat that trend.
Dec 21, 2017
Lessons From Alabama
The politics team sorts through the hot takes from last week's Senate election in Alabama. They also discuss the political implications of the proposed GOP tax overhaul.
Dec 18, 2017
The Gerrymandering Project: North Carolina
A decades long debate has raged over how to ensure minorities have a voice in America. In the third installment of our series, we look at racial gerrymandering.
Dec 14, 2017
Emergency Podcast: Doug Jones Wins
Doug Jones became the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Alabama in a quarter century. The team discusses the factors that converged to make that possible.
Dec 12, 2017
The Alabama Election Is Here
The Alabama special Senate election is Tuesday. The polls have varied significantly in an election where turnout is hard to predict. The team weighs in on what to expect.
Dec 11, 2017
The Gerrymandering Project: Wisconsin
Is partisan gerrymandering illegal? In the second installment of our gerrymandering series we look at a Supreme Court case that could reshape how we draw political boundaries.
Dec 07, 2017
Are Taxes A Pyrrhic Victory?
The Senate passed a tax overhaul bill Friday night. The team weighs the political and policy implications and follow up on the fallout from Michael Flynn's guilty plea.
Dec 04, 2017
Emergency Podcast: Flynn Flips
A quick conversation in reaction the big news that Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about conversations with Russian officials.
Dec 01, 2017
The Gerrymandering Project: Intro
What is gerrymandering? This is the first episode in a six-part series exploring the effects of gerrymandering and how reformers hope to change the system.
Nov 30, 2017
Congress's Broken Culture
Lawmakers return to Washington under pressure to confront sexual harassment by their own ranks. The podcast team also looks at the latest in the Alabama special Senate race.
Nov 27, 2017
Alabama Is Tied
The Alabama special Senate race is now tied, after numerous accusation that Republican Roy Moore molested and assaulted teenage girls. The podcast team reacts.
Nov 20, 2017
Franken Is Accused Of Harassment
Leeann Tweeden accused Senator Al Franken of kissing and groping her without her consent while on a USO tour in the Middle East. The podcast team reacts.
Nov 16, 2017
Alabama's Senate Race
Five women have accused Roy Moore, Republican candidate for Senate from Alabama, of sexual misconduct. The team assesses how this will affect the final month of the campaign.
Nov 13, 2017
2016 Anniversary Talk
A year after the 2016 election, Nate & Micah sit down to discuss what it was like to cover the race - from the mistakes FiveThirtyEight made to the emotions of the final weeks
Nov 08, 2017
A Good Night For Democrats
The podcast team responds to strong showing by Democrats across the board on Election Day 2017
Nov 07, 2017
Election Day 2017
Will Democrats begin their comeback on Election Day 2017? The podcast team shares advice on which races to watch and what the margins mean.
Nov 06, 2017
Sexual Harassment In Media And Politics
Major figures in political journalism are alleged to have been serial sexual harassers. What does it mean to have those men in charge of the way political news gets made?
Nov 04, 2017
Mueller's First Strike
Ex-chairman of the Trump campaign Paul Manafort was indicted along with two other campaign aides as part of Bob Mueller's special investigation. The team weighs in.
Oct 30, 2017
Emergency Podcast - Flake Is Out
GOP Sen. Jeff Flake from Arizona, a repeated Trump critic, announced he will not seek reelection in 2018. The podcast team discusses what that means for Arizona and the GOP.
Oct 24, 2017
Could Alabama Go Blue?
The 2017 elections are not far off. The team looks at the candidates and polling in the Virginia governor's race and Alabama's special Senate race.
Oct 23, 2017
Steve Bannon's War
Steve Bannon declared "war" on the GOP establishment at the Values Voter Summit last week. The podcast team discusses what that will mean for the 2018 midterms.
Oct 16, 2017
Corker Uncorked
GOP Senator Corker and President Trump went at each other over the weekend. The podcast weighs in on how Corker's criticism of Trump could affect GOP politics.
Oct 09, 2017
Trump's Response To Maria
The Trump administration is facing multiple crises: a mass shooting in Las Vegas, Puerto Rico recovering from hurricane Maria and rising tensions with North Korea.
Oct 02, 2017
Is Partisan Gerrymandering Illegal?
The Supreme Court is hearing a partisan gerrymandering case that could reshape how our democracy works. FiveThirtyEight brings you a deep dive into what is at stake.
Sep 28, 2017
Trump vs. The NFL
Over the weekend, President Trump targeted the NFL for player protests and was rebuked by owners, players and the players union. The podcast team weighs in.
Sep 25, 2017
Emergency Podcast: McCain Is A No
Sen. McCain is a no on the latest ACA repeal effort. The team debates what comes next.
Sep 22, 2017
Democrats Divided
As the Democratic Party increasingly embraces single payer healthcare and Clinton weighs in on her primary race against Sanders, the team discusses where the party is headed.
Sep 18, 2017
What Happened
Hillary Clinton is releasing a book this week chronicling what went wrong during her 2016 campaign from her perspective. The podcast team sizes up her assessment.
Sep 11, 2017
Immigration Politics
The White House has decided to end the DACA program. The podcast team weighs in on how voters view DACA and what Congress's options are for replacing it.
Sep 05, 2017
Harvey Tests Trump
Amid historic flooding in East Texas, the team talks about the political challenges natural disasters can pose to local officials, governors and the president.
Aug 28, 2017
How Trump Talks About Race
The team talks to political science professor Vincent Hutchings about the way Donald Trump spoke about race in the aftermath of Charlottesville.
Aug 21, 2017
Emergency Podcast - Bannon Out
In this emergency podcast, the team talks about what Steve Bannon's departure from the White House means for the people who remain.
Aug 18, 2017
Trump's Response To Charlottesville
President Trump did not condemn white supremacy by name in his initial response to the violence in Charlottesville. The team discusses the reasons and repercussions.
Aug 14, 2017
Enter The Grand Jury
The team weighs the significance of Bob Mueller empaneling a grand jury in the Russia investigation. They also look at persisting rifts in the Democratic Party.
Aug 07, 2017
Special Presentation: 30 for 30 Podcasts
A break from politics with an excerpt of a new audio documentary from 30 for 30 Podcasts, which our very own Jody Avirgan heads up. We present "The Fighter Inside," reported by Andrew Mambo. More at
Aug 05, 2017
White House Chaos
The team breaks down the latest White House staffing shakeups and asks how Chief of Staff John Kelly might correct course amid the chaos.
Jul 31, 2017
Emergency Podcast - Senate Repeal Fails
The podcast team breaks down the final votes and weighs who is most responsible for the Republican failure: Trump, McConnell or Ryan.
Jul 28, 2017
The GOP's Last(?) Ditch Health Care Push
The podcast team considers the options for Senate Republicans as they face a last ditch effort to repeal the ACA. Plus, how different would a Clinton presidency have been?
Jul 24, 2017
Six Months In
The podcast team digests the Senate's latest health care bill and debates which path Trump's presidency is on six months in.
Jul 17, 2017
Emergency Podcast - Don Jr.'s Emails
The podcast team reacts to emails in which Donald Trump Jr. accepts a meeting with a Kremlin-linked lawyer offering dirt on Hillary Clinton.
Jul 13, 2017
Why Trump Wants Voter Data
The crew discusses the Trump administration's request for voter data and why states are pushing back. Plus, with another good jobs report, can Trump claim to own the economy?
Jul 10, 2017
Trump Goes Global
Ahead of the G20 summit, the podcast team looks at changes in global perceptions of American leadership since Trump took office.
Jul 06, 2017
The Health Care Episode
The podcast team discusses the policies in the Senate GOP health care bill and debates whether it's likely to pass.
Jun 26, 2017
Emergency Podcast - Georgia And South Carolina Specials
The podcast team responds to the results of the special elections in Georgia's 6th district and South Carolina's 5th district.
Jun 20, 2017
The Most Special Special Election
The special election in Georgia's 6th district has become the most expensive House election in American history. The podcast team debates how much it matters.
Jun 19, 2017
Trump Under Investigation
The podcast team responds to new reports that President Trump is under FBI investigation for obstruction of justice.
Jun 15, 2017
The Base
The podcast team debates who actually makes up the base in each party and what role they will play in upcoming elections.
Jun 12, 2017
Emergency Podcast - Hung Parliament
No party won a majority in the U.K. election, resulting in a hung parliament. The podcast team reacts.
Jun 09, 2017
Emergency Podcast - Comey's Testimony
The podcast team reacts to former FBI Director James Comey's testimony about the events that lead up to his firing by President Trump.
Jun 08, 2017
Emergency Podcast - Comey's Prepared Testimony
The podcast team discusses former FBI Director James Comey's prepared testimony to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
Jun 07, 2017
Pittsburgh vs. Paris
The podcast team debates the political savvy of Trump's exit from the Paris climate agreement. Nate takes a look at what's going on in the crazy world of UK elections polls.
Jun 05, 2017
Do Democrats Need A Win?
The podcast team debates whether a Democratic loss in Montana's special election means challenges ahead for the party. They also parse smoke from fire in the Russia scandal.
May 30, 2017
What Now?
After the appointment of a special counsel to investigate possible ties between Trump's campaign and Russia, can the White House return to business as usual?
May 22, 2017
Emergency Podcast - The Comey Memo
The podcast crew assesses the fallout from reports of a memo by former FBI Director Comey in which he detailed conversations with President Trump.
May 17, 2017
The Scandal Meter
The podcast team sizes up how big of a scandal Comey's firing actually is. They also discuss how the census director's departure could affect the upcoming census.
May 15, 2017
Emergency Podcast: Trump Fires Comey
News broke late on Tuesday that President Trump fired FBI Director James Comey. We hop in the studio to discuss.
May 09, 2017
Health Care Winners And Losers
The podcast team talks to Anna Barry-Jester about how the GOP health care bill will affect real people. They also discuss the sizable polling miss in the French election.
May 08, 2017
Emergency Health Care Podcast II
The podcast team talks about the political implications of the AHCA health care bill passing the House.
May 05, 2017
99 Trial Balloons
The podcast team makes sense of Trump's one page tax plan with Ben Casselman. They also debate how the media has performed 100 days into the Trump presidency.
May 01, 2017
100 Days
The team assesses Trump's legislative agenda as he ends his first 100 days. They also discuss the Earth Day protests and gauge populism's appeal after the French election.
Apr 24, 2017
Georgia's 6th - Live From New York
The podcast team responds to GA-6 results live from the Comedy Cellar in New York. They also discuss upcoming European elections, play trivia and answer audience questions.
Apr 19, 2017
Trump's Paths, Revisited
The podcast team assesses the special elections in Kansas and Georgia and takes stock of President Trump's governing style as his administration approaches 100 days.
Apr 17, 2017
The Trump Doctrine (Maybe?)
The podcast team talks about Trump's decision to authorize airstrikes against Assad's regime in Syria and tracks who in Trump's circle is gaining and losing influence.
Apr 10, 2017
Sparks: Why Health Care Costs So Much
Our science team discusses Elizabeth Rosenthal's "An American Sickness." To catch part two, subscribe to What's The Point in iTunes or
Apr 08, 2017
Filibuster Time
The podcast team discusses the political calculus of Democrats filibustering Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch. The crew also plays a new game: Smoke or Fire?
Apr 03, 2017
Live From Boise
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live from the Treefort Fest in Boise, Idaho. The team talks to Mayor Dave Bieter, plays a round of political trivia and answers questions.
Mar 27, 2017
Emergency Health Care Podcast: Live From Boise
Live from the Hackfort Festival in Boise, Idaho the podcast discusses the decision by Republicans to pull their health care bill without a vote in the House.
Mar 24, 2017
Three Polls And A SCOTUS Nominee
The podcast team discusses what to expect during a week of SCOTUS confirmation hearings and debates whether Americans' views on healthcare have truly shifted.
Mar 20, 2017
The podcast team discusses whether the new GOP health care bill has a shot at becoming law. David Wasserman also joins the show to help measure trends in partisanship.
Mar 13, 2017
Hot Takedown: Politics In Sports
We bring you an excerpt from FiveThirtyEight's Hot Takedown podcast about why politics are more visible in sports today. Subscribe at (And if you're going to be at SXSW, come see Jody's events!)
Mar 09, 2017
Anatomy Of A Scandal
In light of continued questions over the Trump administration's relationship with Russia, Brandon Rottinghaus joins the podcast to talk about what can make a scandal damaging.
Mar 06, 2017
Party People
The podcast team wraps up the Party Time series and welcomes Perry Bacon Jr. to the staff, who will be covering the Trump administration from DC.
Feb 27, 2017