FiveThirtyEight Politics

By FiveThirtyEight, 538, ESPN, Nate Silver

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Category: News & Politics

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Subscribers: 7701
Reviews: 40

 Mar 4, 2020

 Feb 26, 2020
Best straight-forward data driven politics podcast!

 Feb 26, 2020
Best political podcast imo. Focus on data and insight over punditry

 Feb 19, 2020
Great, data-focused politics podcast. Their statistical analysis is much better than their punditry though.

 Feb 18, 2020


Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

Episode Date
Why It's So Hard To Forecast The Impact Of COVID-19
FiveThirtyEight's science writer Maggie Koerth and quantitative editor Laura Bronner join the podcast to discuss the challenges of modeling the impact of COVID-19.
Apr 02, 2020
Why Trump's Approval Rating Has Increased
The crew discusses where we are in the arc of the COVID-19 crisis, how Americans are rating the president's performance, and the significance of the DPA.
Mar 30, 2020
COVID-19 Broke The Jobless Claims Chart
Economics reporter Ben Casselman joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the stunning unemployment claims numbers from last week.
Mar 26, 2020
How COVID-19 Is -- And Isn't -- Changing Politics
The crew discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the politics of Washington, D.C. and how it's disrupting the 2020 presidential race.
Mar 23, 2020
How COVID-19 Is Changing The Economy
Economist Tara Sinclair joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic so far.
Mar 20, 2020
How COVID-19 Affected Tuesday's Vote
FiveThirtyEight's Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday night's primary elections.
Mar 18, 2020
Coronavirus, Uncertainty, Politics
The crew discusses the coronavirus crisis and the uncertainty and politics surrounding it.
Mar 16, 2020
Biden And Sanders Debate Amid Pandemic
The crew reacts to the first Biden vs. Sanders one-on-one debate, which took place amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Mar 16, 2020
The Democratic Primary Is No Longer Competitive
The crew reacts to the latest round of Democratic primary results, in which Biden far outperformed Sanders.
Mar 11, 2020
Is Even Coronavirus Partisan?
The crew discusses the results of a poll on coronavirus and previews the upcoming primary races.
Mar 09, 2020
Model Talk: Biden Is A Clear Favorite
Mar 06, 2020
Emergency Podcast: Warren Drops Out
The crew reacts to the news that Sen. Elizabeth Warren is suspending her campaign for president.
Mar 05, 2020
Biden Won Super Tuesday. What Now?
The crew reacts to Joe Biden's very strong performance on Super Tuesday and asks what comes next.
Mar 04, 2020
What's At Stake On Super Tuesday
The crew previews the races that will be decided on Super Tuesday and debates the effect Buttigieg's dropout will have.
Mar 02, 2020
Biden Wins Big In South Carolina
The crew reacts to Biden's big win in South Carolina and discusses what comes next in what looks to be a two person race.
Mar 01, 2020
How Rep. James Clyburn Settled On Endorsing Biden
Rep. James Clyburn endorsed Joe Biden on Wednesday. Galen Druke sat down with Clyburn ahead of his endorsement to discuss Biden, South Carolina and the Democratic Party.
Feb 26, 2020
What Went Down In The South Carolina Debate
The crew reacts to a messy Democratic debate in South Carolina.
Feb 26, 2020
Sanders Wins Big In Nevada
Nate Silver and editor of the Nevada Independent, Jon Ralston, join the podcast from Las Vegas to discuss the results of the Nevada caucuses.
Feb 23, 2020
Bloomberg Stumbles In Chaotic Debate
In a late night edition of the podcast, the crew reacts to the Nevada Democratic primary debate.
Feb 20, 2020
Can Bloomberg Win?!
The crew discusses Michael Bloomberg's chances of winning the nomination. They also debate whether Bernie Sanders has a lock on the Nevada caucuses.
Feb 18, 2020
Model Talk: The Chance Of Chaos Increases
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the Democratic primary forecast has updated since the New Hampshire primary.
Feb 14, 2020
Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire
The crew reacts to the results of the New Hampshire primary, including a Sanders win, a close second for Buttigieg and a surprise third place finish for Klobuchar.
Feb 12, 2020
Live From Manchester: A New Hampshire Preview
At a live show in Manchester, the crew previews the New Hampshire primary, debates the likelihood of a contested convention and plays a game!
Feb 10, 2020
Live From The New Hampshire Debate
The crew reacts to the Democratic primary debate in New Hampshire, from the spin room.
Feb 08, 2020
The Results In Iowa
The crew discusses the results -- so far -- from the Iowa caucuses. They also check in on the race in New Hampshire and the vote to acquit President Trump.
Feb 06, 2020
Chaos In Iowa
The crew discusses the lack of results in the Democratic Iowa caucuses.
Feb 04, 2020
Model Talk: What To Expect From The Iowa Caucuses
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latest polling in the final day before the Iowa caucuses.
Feb 02, 2020
Stacey Abrams Thinks She'll Be President By 2040
As part of our When Women Run series, Clare Malone sat down with Stacey Abrams, former candidate for governor of Georgia.
Jan 31, 2020
When Women Run
To better understand what it's really like to run for office as a woman, we spoke to women from every state who have done it -- 97 women in all. These are their stories.
Jan 29, 2020
The Sanders Surge
The crew assesses Bernie Sanders's improvement in the polls a week before the Iowa caucuses. They also discuss reporting from John Bolton's new book.
Jan 27, 2020
The Primaries Project: There's Gotta Be A Better System...Right?
This is the third installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.
Jan 23, 2020
How Senators Are Calculating Impeachment Politics
FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join Galen Druke to discuss the political considerations at play in President Trump's impeachment trial.
Jan 22, 2020
Live From DC: America's Favorite Sandwich
In front of a live audience in DC, the crew debates the electoral cases of the leading Democratic candidates. The also discuss electability and guess what America thinks.
Jan 20, 2020
The Primaries Project: The Effects Of Reform
This is the second installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.
Jan 16, 2020
The Last Pre-Iowa Debate
The crew reacts to the candidates' performances in the last Democratic primary debate before the Iowa caucuses.
Jan 15, 2020
A Four-Way Pileup In Iowa
The crew discusses the latest polling in Iowa, showing a tight four-way race. They also talk about Booker's decision to dropout and Tom Steyer's polling in NV and SC.
Jan 13, 2020
Model Talk: The Primary Forecast Is Live
FiveThirtyEight's 2020 Democratic primary forecast is live. In a new installment of "Model Talk" Nate Silver discusses what went into creating it.
Jan 10, 2020
The Primaries Project: How 1968 Changed Everything
This is the first installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American history.
Jan 09, 2020
How The Iran Conflict Could Affect 2020
The team discusses the political implication's of President Trump's decision to kill Iran's Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani in a drone strike.
Jan 06, 2020
The Biggest Political Moments Of 2019
The podcast crew looks back at the biggest political moments of 2019 and looks ahead to the most pressing questions of 2020.
Dec 30, 2019
Eggnog And Listener Questions
In this holiday installment of the podcast, the crew drinks eggnog and answers questions from listeners.
Dec 23, 2019
The House Impeaches President Trump
President Donald Trump became the third president in American history to be impeached on Thursday. The podcast team discusses how we got here and what comes next.
Dec 19, 2019
Do Voters' Second Choices Matter?
The crew previews what to expect from this week's likely impeachment vote and debate how much voters' second choices matter in the Democratic primary.
Dec 16, 2019
Conservatives Win Big In The UK Election
University of Cambridge political scientists Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to break down the results of the 2019 British general election.
Dec 13, 2019
The Primary According To The Early States
The crew shares a preview of FiveThirtyEight's polling averages in the early states. They also discuss the path Trump's presidency is on.
Dec 09, 2019
The Legal Experts And The Polls
We review the House testimony from legal scholars on whether Trump committed an impeachable offense and check out the results of our polling collaboration with Ipsos.
Dec 04, 2019
Emergency Podcast: Harris Drops Out
The crew reacts to Sen. Kamala Harris's decision to drop out of the Democratic primary.
Dec 03, 2019
Is The Party Deciding?
The crew looks at which candidates are racking up endorsements and whether there's a meaningful trend in favor of Biden. They also take stock of Harris's troubles on the trail
Dec 02, 2019
A Very FiveThirtyEight Thanksgiving
The crew discusses public opinion on impeachment and plays a Thanksgiving-inspired game.
Nov 25, 2019
What Went Down In The 5th Democratic Debate
In a late night podcast, the crew reacts to the fifth Democratic primary debate.
Nov 21, 2019
Impeachment Hearings Day 4: Sondland Testifies
The crew reacts to U.S. Ambassador to the E.U. Gordon Sondland's testimony in the fourth day of public impeachment hearings.
Nov 20, 2019
Impeachment Hearings Day 3: The Phone Call
The crew discusses what went down during the third day of public impeachment hearings.
Nov 20, 2019
The Buttigieg Bump 2.0
The crew discusses the latest polling out of Iowa, showing a shakeup in the race there. They also ask why education levels are such a key factor in how people vote.
Nov 18, 2019
Yovanovich Testifies, Trump Attacks
The crew reacts to the second day of public impeachment hearings.
Nov 15, 2019
Public Impeachment Hearings Begin
The crew reacts to the first of many public impeachment hearings on President Trump's attempt to pressure Ukraine to investigate a political rival.
Nov 13, 2019
The FiveThirtyNATE Podcast
The New York Times's Nate Cohn joins the podcast to discuss battleground state polling, the Electoral College and the state of the Democratic primary.
Nov 11, 2019
What The 2019 Election Results Mean
FiveThirtyEight election analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley break down the results of the 2019 elections.
Nov 06, 2019
Free-For-All In Iowa
The crew previews the key elections on the ballot this Election Day and debates the role healthcare is playing in Sen. Elizabeth Warren's plateauing in national polls.
Nov 04, 2019
Exit Interview: Tim Ryan
Rep. Tim Ryan exited the presidential race last week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an "exit interview."
Oct 31, 2019
What Should Republicans Do?
The crew debates the savviest political strategy for Senate Republicans on the issue of impeachment. They also discuss the death of al-Baghdadi and disagreement in the polls.
Oct 28, 2019
The Taylor Testimony
The crew discusses the significance of U.S. envoy to Ukraine William Taylor's testimony. He claimed Trump made military aid contingent on politically-motivated investigations.
Oct 23, 2019
Medicare For Fall
The podcast crew discusses the politics of Medicare for All in the Democratic primary. They also look at the latest impeachment polling.
Oct 21, 2019
Warren In The Hot Seat
The crew reacts to the fourth Democratic primary debate.
Oct 16, 2019
What To Look For In The 4th Debate
The crew discusses the latest impeachment polling and previews the fourth Democratic primary debate.
Oct 14, 2019
Impeachment 101
Law professor Kate Shaw joins the podcast to discuss the laws and history behind impeachment and how they apply to today.
Oct 10, 2019
Is Ukraine Getting Worse For Trump?
The podcast crew reviews the latest news in the impeachment inquiry and discusses the two parties' strategies. They also ask if Joe Biden is the Democratic frontrunner.
Oct 07, 2019
How TV's Evolution Explains Our Politics
New York Times TV critic James Poniewozik joins the podcast to explain how changes in television over the past forty years have shaped American politics.
Oct 03, 2019
Impeachment Is Becoming More Popular
The crew looks at how public opinion on impeaching President Trump has changed in the week since Speaker Pelosi announced a formal inquiry.
Sep 30, 2019
The Whistleblower's Complaint
It's only been 48 hours since we last recorded, but a lot has happened. We discuss the release of Trump's Ukraine call summary, the whistleblower's complaint and more.
Sep 26, 2019
What An Impeachment Inquiry Might Mean
The crew gathers to discuss Nancy Pelosi's decision to launch an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. How'd we get here, and what might come next?
Sep 24, 2019
Are Democrats Ready To Impeach Trump?
The crew discusses how the Ukraine story could change the impeachment conversation for Democrats. They also debate whether Elizabeth Warren is now the frontrunner in Iowa.
Sep 23, 2019
We Ran Into Andrew Yang At The Airport
Nate and Galen ran into Andrew Yang waiting for the same return flight from the debate in Houston last week. They asked if he'd record a podcast and he obliged.
Sep 19, 2019
The State Of *Both* 2020 Primaries
The crew discusses the latest post-debate polling and what the GOP primary is teaching us about Trump's electoral strengths and weaknesses.
Sep 16, 2019
What Went Down In The Third Democratic Debate
The crew reacts to the third Democratic primary debate from the spin room floor in Houston, Texas.
Sep 13, 2019
How To Own The Debate
The crew discusses possible strategies for the candidates on stage in the Democratic primary debate on Thursday.
Sep 09, 2019
The Gerrymandering Fight Moves To The States
A North Carolina court panel threw out the state's legislative maps as a partisan gerrymander this week. Nancy Martorano Miller and Dave Wasserman discuss the implications.
Sep 05, 2019
And Then There Were Ten
The crew discusses the dynamic of the third Democratic primary debate, in which ten candidates will face off on a single night. They also ask: good use or bad use of polling?
Sep 03, 2019
A Constitutional Crisis In Britain?
Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss Boris Johnson's suspension of parliament and the politics of Brexit.
Aug 29, 2019
The Winnowing Begins
The crew takes a look at who has dropped out of the Democratic primary and why. They also assess the political risk of a hypothetical downturn in the economy.
Aug 26, 2019
The 2019 Elections
FiveThirtyEight elections analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley join the podcast to discuss the races on the ballot in 2019 and the current national environment.
Aug 22, 2019
Elizabeth Warren's Comeback
The crew discusses how Elizabeth Warren gained ground after polling fifth or sixth nationally a handful of months ago. They also ask what's changed since the El Paso shooting.
Aug 19, 2019
Trump's Trade War Puts His Biggest Asset At Risk
International economist Mary Lovely joins the podcast to discuss the effects of President Trump's trade war with China.
Aug 15, 2019
How Much Does Iowa Matter?
Following a weekend during which the 2020 candidates flooded Iowa, the crew debates the significance of the first-in-the-nation caucus state.
Aug 12, 2019
"The Best Pollster In Politics"
Ann Selzer, who conducts the "Iowa Poll" and has an A+ rating in FiveThirtyEight's pollster rankings, talks about the challenges of polling Iowa in 2020.
Aug 08, 2019
Can Trump's Words Incite Violence?
The podcast team discusses the weekend's mass shootings and the relationship between political rhetoric and violence.
Aug 05, 2019
Live From Detroit: The State Of The Race Post-Debates
The crew discusses the debates and the state of the 2020 Democratic primary race in downtown Detroit.
Aug 02, 2019
Democrats Battle It Out
The left and moderate flanks of the Democratic Party debated big ideas in the second primary debate. Nate and Galen react from downtown Detroit.
Jul 31, 2019
Are Democrats Moving Too Far Left?
The crew debates the risks for 2020 Democrats of taking unpopular positions on issues like healthcare and immigration. The also discuss Democrats' next steps on impeachment.
Jul 29, 2019
Mueller Talks
After months of back-and-forth with Democrats, former special counsel Robert Mueller testified before the U.S. House Judiciary and Intelligence committees on Wednesday.
Jul 24, 2019
Racial Resentment As A Political Strategy
The podcast crew discusses the role that racial resentment played in the 2016 and 2018 elections and debates whether Trump could use it to his advantage in 2020.
Jul 22, 2019
Who's Going To Win Pennsylvania In 2020?
The podcast heads to Pennsylvania to discuss the state's political trends and what they mean for 2020.
Jul 18, 2019
Trump's Racist Tweets
The podcast team discusses Trump's tweets appearing to target a group of congresswomen of color. They also debate the odds of a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Kentucky.
Jul 15, 2019
Exit Interview: Eric Swalwell
Rep. Eric Swalwell exited the presidential race this week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an "exit interview."
Jul 11, 2019
Is Biden Still The Front-Runner?
The podcast crew debates whether Joe Biden is still the front-runner in the Democratic primary race. They also discuss Rep. Justin Amash's decision to leave the GOP.
Jul 08, 2019
The Verdict On The Debates
The podcast crew digs into data about how voters reacted to the first debates. They also discuss the new sexual assault accusation against President Trump.
Jul 01, 2019
Harris Wins Narrative. We'll See About The Voters.
The crew reacts to night two of the first Democratic primary debates.
Jun 28, 2019
What Went Down At The First Democratic Debate
The podcast team reacts to night one of the first Democratic primary debates.
Jun 27, 2019
Lanes Emerge In The Democratic Primary
The crew re-assesses the significance of "lanes" in the Democratic primary and looks at Trump's Iran strategy.
Jun 24, 2019
What's At Stake In The Final Week Of SCOTUS Decisions
Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to discuss key decisions the Supreme Court has made so far, and what is at stake in the final 12 cases.
Jun 21, 2019
Who Is Persuadable In 2020?
As Trump kicks off his reelection campaign, the crew debates who is persuadable in 2020. They also discuss the Democratic primary debate lineups.
Jun 17, 2019
A Republican Strategist's Guide To 2020
Republican strategist and pollster Bill McInturff joins the podcast to discuss his report, "What Republicans Need to Know as We Move Toward the 2020 Election."
Jun 13, 2019
Is Elizabeth Warren Surging?
The crew examines whether the popular narrative of Elizabeth Warren's breakthrough is reflected in the data. They also discuss why Joe Biden backtracked on the Hyde Amendment.
Jun 10, 2019
The D.C. Statehood Episode
Representative Eleanor Holmes Norton and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer join the podcast to discuss Democrats' efforts to make D.C. the nation's 51st state.
Jun 06, 2019
Are Voters Sexist?
The crew discusses what we know about how voters respond to female candidates and how the women running for president in 2020 are navigating questions about their identity.
Jun 03, 2019
Are Nationalist Victories Around The World Connected?
University of Cambridge professors Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss what appear to be a string of similar outcomes in elections around the world.
May 31, 2019
Is Pelosi's Trump Strategy Working?
The crew discusses whether last week's back-and-forth between Pelosi and Trump achieved its reported goal. They also look at head-to-head polling in the Democratic primary.
May 28, 2019
What We Can Learn From Tracking Trump's Falsehoods
The Washington Post has been tracking every false or misleading claim Trump has made while in office. In this episode, we dig into the database.
May 23, 2019
Have Americans Changed Their Minds On Abortion?
The politics team examines Bill de Blasio's theory of the case, the rationale behind seemingly conflicting numbers on abortion and ask if Democrats can win the Senate in 2020.
May 20, 2019
Why Some States Are Passing New Abortion Restrictions
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey signed the most restrictive abortion law in recent U.S. history into law on Wednesday. It's part of a larger trend of changing state level abortion law.
May 16, 2019
The Politics Of Impeaching Trump
The crew debates the possible political repercussions for Democrats of moving to impeach Trump. They also look at how some on the left have tried to discredit a CNN poll.
May 13, 2019
Live From Houston: What Happened To The Bush GOP?
In a live taping from Houston, Texas, the crew discusses how and why the GOP has changed from the party of Bush to the party of Trump. They also play a 2020 primary draft.
May 09, 2019
Live From Austin: Will Texas Be A Battleground In 2020?
The crew is in Austin, Texas, where they debate whether the Lone Star State will be a battleground in 2020. They also play a heated round of trivia.
May 07, 2019
Mueller's Letter To Barr
Special Counsel Mueller wrote AG Barr a letter expressing concerns about how he'd characterized the report's findings to Congress. The podcast crew reacts.
May 01, 2019
Peto Buttichar 2020
The crew discusses the Democratic Party's reaction to Joe Biden entering the presidential race. They also ask why Sanders and Warren don't have more crossover support.
Apr 29, 2019
How Joe Biden Could Win
Former Vice President Joe Biden announced his candidacy for president on Thursday. The crew discusses the reasons he could win the nomination or come up short.
Apr 25, 2019
We Have The Mueller Report. Now What?
The crew discusses how the various players are positioning themselves now that the Mueller report is public. Plus, the Democratic primary field expanded again.
Apr 22, 2019
Emergency Podcast: The Mueller Report
The podcast team reacts to the release of the redacted Mueller report.
Apr 18, 2019
The State Of The Democratic Primary
As the first quarter of 2019 comes to a close, the crew gives an assessment of state of the 2020 Democratic primary.
Apr 15, 2019
How Good Are FiveThirtyEight Forecasts?
Our "Model Talk" series returns briefly to discuss the performance of FiveThirtyEight's forecast models over the past decade. We crunched the numbers and the results are in!
Apr 11, 2019
Do Democrats Want An Outsider In 2020?
The crew debates the appeal of a political outsider for Democrats in 2020. They also look at the class divide among white voters how that affects their political behavior.
Apr 08, 2019
The Electoral College Episode
Julia Azari and Seth Masket join the podcast to discuss the arguments for and against the Electoral College and how likely it is to actually change.
Apr 04, 2019
What Will Biden Do?
Joe Biden has been accused of inappropriately touching a former legislator at a campaign event. Will that change his calculus about whether to get in the race?
Apr 01, 2019
Can Statistics Solve Gerrymandering?
Mathematician Moon Duchin joins Nate Silver and Galen Druke to discuss a method for spotting partisan gerrymandering that the Supreme Court considered Tuesday.
Mar 28, 2019
Life After The Mueller Report
The crew reacts to the principal findings of the Mueller report, according to Attorney General Bill Barr.
Mar 25, 2019
Emergency Podcast: Mueller Has Filed His Report
In this emergency podcast, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to discuss what comes next now that Special Counsel Mueller has filed his report.
Mar 22, 2019
Live From NY: It's A 2020 Draft!
In a live taping of the podcast, the crew competes in a draft of the 2020 primary candidates. They also play "Good Use of Polling or Bad Use of Polling?"
Mar 21, 2019
Ranking 2020 Rollouts
The crew takes stock of which candidates have done the best job introducing themselves in the early months of the primary.
Mar 18, 2019
The Moment Of Truth For Brexit
David Runciman and Helen Thompson from the British "Talking Politics" podcast discuss the week in Brexit and what comes next.
Mar 15, 2019
How Beto O'Rourke Could Win
Former El Paso congressman Beto O'Rourke is running for president. The crew discusses how he could win -- or lose -- the Democratic primary.
Mar 14, 2019
How Divided Are Democrats?
The podcast crew analyzes the divisions within the Democratic Party and makes sense of why potential 2020 candidates like Sherrod Brown decided not to run.
Mar 11, 2019
Iowa And New Hampshire Can Go To Hell
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Why do those four states vote first and does the lineup make sense?
Mar 07, 2019
Should We Cancel The Electoral College?
The podcast crew discusses the latest candidate announcements, whether party endorsements matter, and the merits of the Electoral College.
Mar 04, 2019
What We Learned From Cohen's Testimony
The podcast team reacts to a day of testimony from President Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen.
Feb 28, 2019
Our Best (Or Worst) Show
The podcast crew discusses absentee ballot fraud in North Carolina and the threat of a primary challenge to Trump. They also play a round of "Guess What Americans Think."
Feb 25, 2019
All The President's Investigations
The word is that Mueller will wrap up his investigation next week. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux shares an overview of the legal troubles that will continue to follow the president.
Feb 22, 2019
How Bernie Sanders Could Win
Sen. Bernie Sanders is running for president. The team describes both his path to success and failure in the primary. They also follow up on Trump's emergency declaration.
Feb 19, 2019
National Emergency Podcast
The crew reacts to the news that President Trump plans to declare a national emergency at the southern border. Vox's Dara Lind also joins to discuss the border security deal.
Feb 14, 2019
How Amy Klobuchar Could Win
The crew discusses the arguments for and against Sen. Amy Klobuchar winning the Democratic nomination. They also assess the politics of the Green New Deal.
Feb 11, 2019
The Mess In Virginia
Democratic politics in Virginia are in upheaval. The team reacts to the scandals facing each of the top three Democrats in the state -- the governor, lt. governor and AG.
Feb 07, 2019
The Politics Of Taxing The Rich
Some Democrats are floating new taxes on the super rich. The crew discusses the politics of those proposals. They also assess Cory Booker's path to the nomination.
Feb 04, 2019
The Perot Effect
What effect do third party candidates have in a two party system? This is an audio documentary about Ross Perot and the 1992 election that originally aired in October 2016.
Feb 02, 2019
Do Americans Want A Candidate Like Howard Schultz?
In light of Howard Schultz's possible presidential run as a "centrist independent," the crew discusses the appetite for such a candidate among Americans.
Jan 31, 2019
Shutdown Lessons (And 2020 Announcements)
The crew discusses the political repercussions of the government shutdown and considers two Democratic presidential contenders -- Pete Buttigieg and Tulsi Gabbard.
Jan 28, 2019
What To Make Of Roger Stone's Indictment
In this installment of Mueller Talk, Amelia Thomson-Deveaux discusses the implications of longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone's indictment.
Jan 25, 2019
How Kamala Harris Could Win
The crew analyzes what Harris's path to the nomination could look like. They also react to Mueller's statement on the Buzzfeed report and discuss the role of the young left.
Jan 22, 2019
Emergency Podcast: The Suborn Identity
In this emergency installment, the crew reacts to a Buzzfeed News report that President Trump directed his lawyer, Michael Cohen, to lie to Congress.
Jan 18, 2019
How Kirsten Gillibrand Could Win
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is the latest in the Democratic field to make official moves toward running for president. The crew discusses her case for the nomination. Note: At 17:40, Nate Silver's audio may be a bit unclear. He says, "It's not that logical because, number one, a lot of Democrats are concerned about senators who allegedly grope people."
Jan 16, 2019
How Julian Castro Could Win
The crew discusses what Julian Castro's path to the Democratic nomination could look like. They also lay out a rubric for evaluating candidate strengths and talk shutdown.
Jan 14, 2019
Will Trump Face A Primary Challenge?
Is Trump in danger of a serious challenge for the Republican nomination in 2020? Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss.
Jan 10, 2019
How Elizabeth Warren Could Win
The crew discusses the paths to Elizabeth Warren winning -- and losing -- the 2020 Democratic nomination. They also look at the political repercussions of the shutdown.
Jan 07, 2019
The Gerrymandering Project: Arizona
In 2018, more states decided to put independent commissions in charge of redistricting. Arizona serves as an example of some of the challenges those commissions can face.
Dec 31, 2018
Our 2018 Politics Awards
The crew looks back on the year in politics and gives out made up awards. They also share resolutions for 2019.
Dec 24, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Mattis Is Out, Shutdown Is On (?)
In an emergency episode of the podcast, the crew discusses Defense Secretary Jim Mattis's departure and the looming government shutdown.
Dec 21, 2018
Should Democrats Play Dirty?
Democrats backed off a plan that would gerrymander New Jersey, while Republicans went ahead with a power grab in Wisconsin. The crew discusses why the parties play differently
Dec 17, 2018
The Brexit Episode
Two political science professors from the University of Cambridge join the podcast to explain what happened in Britain this week and what comes next.
Dec 13, 2018
Trump's Turbulent Week
President Trump is continuing to face possible legal trouble over campaign finance violations, meanwhile the White House is in the middle of another staffing shakeup.
Dec 10, 2018
Something Is Fishy In North Carolina
The crew reflects on how politics have changed since President H. W. Bush's time in office. They also speak with Prof. Michael Bitzer about possible election fraud in NC-09.
Dec 03, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Cohen Is Cooperating With Mueller
In an emergency installment, the crew reacts to news that Michael Cohen pleaded guilty for lying to Congress about the details of a potential Trump project in Moscow.
Nov 29, 2018
This Is Mueller Talk!
After months of silence, the Mueller investigation is making news again. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to make sense of a big week of revelations.
Nov 29, 2018
Can A Democrat Win In Mississippi?
The final Senate election of 2018 is scheduled for Tuesday in Mississippi. The crew discusses the fault lines at play of race, geography and class.
Nov 26, 2018
Will Pelosi Be Replaced?
The Democrats have a majority in the House, now they need a Speaker. The crew discusses whether Nancy Pelosi will be re-elected and what the vote says about the party.
Nov 19, 2018
How Our Model Did
In this post-mortem episode of "Model Talk," Nate discusses how our forecasts did and how we can improve them going forward.
Nov 15, 2018
A Post-Midterms 2020 Draft... Live!
Live from New York, the team ranks the politicians most likely to win the 2020 Democratic primary. They also debrief on the latest results from the midterms.
Nov 12, 2018
Midterms Review
The team looks at some the underlying data from the 2018 midterms to understand the trends at play.
Nov 08, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Sessions Is Out
President Trump has fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions and is replacing him with someone who may curtain the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts.
Nov 07, 2018
Election Night Wrap-Up: Write Your Own Narrative
Clare Malone, Micah Cohen, and Jody Avirgan gather in the podcast studio at the end of a long election night to talk about what we learned and what's next.
Nov 07, 2018
A Guide To Election Night
We walk you through the key races to watch, hour by hour, as the polls close on election night.
Nov 06, 2018
The Final Countdown
The crew reviews the forecasts and other indicators for a final time before Election Day. They also ask whether Trump's appeals on immigration will help Republicans.
Nov 05, 2018
How To Judge The Model's Performance
In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver explains how to judge the model's performance, given that we expect the less likely scenario to happen sometimes.
Nov 02, 2018
Debating Our Own House Forecast
We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our House forecast.
Nov 01, 2018
Debating Our Own Senate Forecast
We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our Senate forecast.
Oct 31, 2018
The Most Important Races You Aren't Watching
There are over 6,000 state legislative races on the ballot this fall and they'll play a big role in Americans' lives. Over a hundred ballot measures are also up for a vote.
Oct 30, 2018
Do Toxic Politics Lead To Violence?
The crew reacts to the spate of violence over the past week and asks whether toxic politics are to blame.
Oct 29, 2018
The Early Vote Is Not In The Model
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains why he doesn't use the early vote to help forecast election results. He also answers questions from listeners.
Oct 26, 2018
The Campaign Ads Dominating 2018
The parties are spending billions on advertising this cycle. The team looks at which topics are mentioned the most in order to understand the parties' priorities.
Oct 25, 2018
How Voting Laws Will Affect The Midterms
New voting laws in Georgia and North Dakota are under the spotlight in the run up to Election Day. We discuss how those and other voting laws can affect elections.
Oct 23, 2018
These Fundraising Numbers Are Unprecedented
House Democrats have about a two to one advantage over Republicans in individual contributions. The crew debates how to make sense of that historic advantage.
Oct 22, 2018
The Governors Forecast Is Live
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver discusses key races in the newly released governors forecast and answers listener questions.
Oct 17, 2018
Early Indicators Of Who Is Running In 2020
The team considers whether Democrats can perform well in the Midterms based on their advantages among women alone. The also look at early indicators of who is running in 2020.
Oct 15, 2018
The Forecasts Are Diverging
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains the hypotheses for why the House and Senate forecasts are diverging and answers questions from listeners.
Oct 11, 2018
Live: Are Any Of The Post-Kavanaugh Narratives Right?
At a live show in DC, the crew debates the political consequences of the Kavanaugh episode. They also weigh the importance of tipping point Senate races and play a game.
Oct 09, 2018
Collins Says Yes On Kavanaugh
The crew discusses how Brett Kavanaugh's all-but-certain confirmation to the Supreme Court might affect the midterms.
Oct 05, 2018
The Ultimate Romney-Clinton District
Galen Druke heads to a traditionally Republican district in Houston, Texas that swung 23 points towards Hillary Clinton in 2016. The district is rated as a toss-up in 2018.
Oct 03, 2018
We Have New Polling On Kavanaugh
The first batch of polls is out since Judge Brett Kavanaugh's testimony last Thursday. The crew discusses how the public is reacting.
Oct 01, 2018
Flake News!
The podcast crew reacts to Senator Jeff Flake's call for an FBI investigation into allegations against Brett Kavanaugh.
Sep 28, 2018
The Ford/Kavanaugh Testimony
The podcast team reacts to the Judiciary Committee testimony of Professor Christine Blasey Ford and Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
Sep 28, 2018
Fire Rosenstein? Withdraw Kavanaugh? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
In a special live taping of the podcast, the crew discusses the future of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
Sep 25, 2018
The Model Is 7,000 Lines Of Code
In this installment of Model Talk Nate discusses how unexpected events affect the model and answers listener questions about how long the model is and where it's stored.
Sep 20, 2018
Kavanaugh's Confirmation Is In Trouble
The crew discusses the political response to an accusation from a woman who says Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her in high school.
Sep 17, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Manafort Is Cooperating
President Trump's former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, is cooperating with the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts to the news.
Sep 14, 2018
The Senate Forecast Is Live
In the latest installment of Model Talk, Nate discusses why the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast favors Republicans.
Sep 12, 2018
Stop Catering To Idiots
The crew reacts to the latest news about the inner workings of the Trump administration and explores the Upshot's foray into live polling.
Sep 10, 2018
How Useful Are SCOTUS Confirmation Hearings?
After three days of Supreme Court nomination hearings, Perry Bacon Jr. and Oliver Roeder discuss what, if anything, they learned.
Sep 07, 2018
Is The Path Of Trump's Presidency Set?
The crew is using the Labor Day holiday to take a step back from the news of the moment and assess how President Trump is faring after more than a year and a half in office.
Sep 03, 2018
Debugging The Model
In this episode of Model Talk, Nate talks about debugging the model and answers questions from listeners, including one surprise listener by the name of Rush.
Aug 30, 2018
Impeachment: A FiveThirtyEight Debate
The crew discusses the legacy of Senator John McCain. They also debate how Democrats should approach the question of impeachment.
Aug 27, 2018
What Does It Mean To Be 'Electable'?
Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari discuss what "electability" means and consider whether it's a useful term for assessing candidates.
Aug 23, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Cohen + Manafort = !!!
The podcast crew reacts to a guilty plea from Michael Cohen and a guilty verdict for Paul Manafort on the same day.
Aug 21, 2018
Democrats Are Competing Everywhere
The crew discusses their takeaways from the new 2018 House forecast. They also sort through new data on how Trump voters' views have evolved or not since 2016.
Aug 20, 2018