FiveThirtyEight Politics

By FiveThirtyEight, 538, ESPN, Nate Silver

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 Nov 30, 2018
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Nonpartisan analysis of politics and elections based on statistics.

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 Oct 12, 2018


Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

Episode Date
The Brexit Episode
Two political science professors from the University of Cambridge join the podcast to explain what happened in Britain this week and what comes next.
Dec 13, 2018
Trump's Turbulent Week
President Trump is continuing to face possible legal trouble over campaign finance violations, meanwhile the White House is in the middle of another staffing shakeup.
Dec 10, 2018
Something Is Fishy In North Carolina
The crew reflects on how politics have changed since President H. W. Bush's time in office. They also speak with Prof. Michael Bitzer about possible election fraud in NC-09.
Dec 03, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Cohen Is Cooperating With Mueller
In an emergency installment, the crew reacts to news that Michael Cohen pleaded guilty for lying to Congress about the details of a potential Trump project in Moscow.
Nov 29, 2018
This Is Mueller Talk!
After months of silence, the Mueller investigation is making news again. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to make sense of a big week of revelations.
Nov 29, 2018
Can A Democrat Win In Mississippi?
The final Senate election of 2018 is scheduled for Tuesday in Mississippi. The crew discusses the fault lines at play of race, geography and class.
Nov 26, 2018
Will Pelosi Be Replaced?
The Democrats have a majority in the House, now they need a Speaker. The crew discusses whether Nancy Pelosi will be re-elected and what the vote says about the party.
Nov 19, 2018
How Our Model Did
In this post-mortem episode of "Model Talk," Nate discusses how our forecasts did and how we can improve them going forward.
Nov 15, 2018
A Post-Midterms 2020 Draft... Live!
Live from New York, the team ranks the politicians most likely to win the 2020 Democratic primary. They also debrief on the latest results from the midterms.
Nov 12, 2018
Midterms Review
The team looks at some the underlying data from the 2018 midterms to understand the trends at play.
Nov 08, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Sessions Is Out
President Trump has fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions and is replacing him with someone who may curtain the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts.
Nov 07, 2018
Election Night Wrap-Up: Write Your Own Narrative
Clare Malone, Micah Cohen, and Jody Avirgan gather in the podcast studio at the end of a long election night to talk about what we learned and what's next.
Nov 07, 2018
A Guide To Election Night
We walk you through the key races to watch, hour by hour, as the polls close on election night.
Nov 06, 2018
The Final Countdown
The crew reviews the forecasts and other indicators for a final time before Election Day. They also ask whether Trump's appeals on immigration will help Republicans.
Nov 05, 2018
How To Judge The Model's Performance
In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver explains how to judge the model's performance, given that we expect the less likely scenario to happen sometimes.
Nov 02, 2018
Debating Our Own House Forecast
We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our House forecast.
Nov 01, 2018
Debating Our Own Senate Forecast
We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our Senate forecast.
Oct 31, 2018
The Most Important Races You Aren't Watching
There are over 6,000 state legislative races on the ballot this fall and they'll play a big role in Americans' lives. Over a hundred ballot measures are also up for a vote.
Oct 30, 2018
Do Toxic Politics Lead To Violence?
The crew reacts to the spate of violence over the past week and asks whether toxic politics are to blame.
Oct 29, 2018
The Early Vote Is Not In The Model
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains why he doesn't use the early vote to help forecast election results. He also answers questions from listeners.
Oct 26, 2018
The Campaign Ads Dominating 2018
The parties are spending billions on advertising this cycle. The team looks at which topics are mentioned the most in order to understand the parties' priorities.
Oct 25, 2018
How Voting Laws Will Affect The Midterms
New voting laws in Georgia and North Dakota are under the spotlight in the run up to Election Day. We discuss how those and other voting laws can affect elections.
Oct 23, 2018
These Fundraising Numbers Are Unprecedented
House Democrats have about a two to one advantage over Republicans in individual contributions. The crew debates how to make sense of that historic advantage.
Oct 22, 2018
The Governors Forecast Is Live
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver discusses key races in the newly released governors forecast and answers listener questions.
Oct 17, 2018
Early Indicators Of Who Is Running In 2020
The team considers whether Democrats can perform well in the Midterms based on their advantages among women alone. The also look at early indicators of who is running in 2020.
Oct 15, 2018
The Forecasts Are Diverging
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains the hypotheses for why the House and Senate forecasts are diverging and answers questions from listeners.
Oct 11, 2018
Live: Are Any Of The Post-Kavanaugh Narratives Right?
At a live show in DC, the crew debates the political consequences of the Kavanaugh episode. They also weigh the importance of tipping point Senate races and play a game.
Oct 09, 2018
Collins Says Yes On Kavanaugh
The crew discusses how Brett Kavanaugh's all-but-certain confirmation to the Supreme Court might affect the midterms.
Oct 05, 2018
The Ultimate Romney-Clinton District
Galen Druke heads to a traditionally Republican district in Houston, Texas that swung 23 points towards Hillary Clinton in 2016. The district is rated as a toss-up in 2018.
Oct 03, 2018
We Have New Polling On Kavanaugh
The first batch of polls is out since Judge Brett Kavanaugh's testimony last Thursday. The crew discusses how the public is reacting.
Oct 01, 2018
Flake News!
The podcast crew reacts to Senator Jeff Flake's call for an FBI investigation into allegations against Brett Kavanaugh.
Sep 28, 2018
The Ford/Kavanaugh Testimony
The podcast team reacts to the Judiciary Committee testimony of Professor Christine Blasey Ford and Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
Sep 28, 2018
Fire Rosenstein? Withdraw Kavanaugh? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
In a special live taping of the podcast, the crew discusses the future of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
Sep 25, 2018
The Model Is 7,000 Lines Of Code
In this installment of Model Talk Nate discusses how unexpected events affect the model and answers listener questions about how long the model is and where it's stored.
Sep 20, 2018
Kavanaugh's Confirmation Is In Trouble
The crew discusses the political response to an accusation from a woman who says Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her in high school.
Sep 17, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Manafort Is Cooperating
President Trump's former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, is cooperating with the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts to the news.
Sep 14, 2018
The Senate Forecast Is Live
In the latest installment of Model Talk, Nate discusses why the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast favors Republicans.
Sep 12, 2018
Stop Catering To Idiots
The crew reacts to the latest news about the inner workings of the Trump administration and explores the Upshot's foray into live polling.
Sep 10, 2018
How Useful Are SCOTUS Confirmation Hearings?
After three days of Supreme Court nomination hearings, Perry Bacon Jr. and Oliver Roeder discuss what, if anything, they learned.
Sep 07, 2018
Is The Path Of Trump's Presidency Set?
The crew is using the Labor Day holiday to take a step back from the news of the moment and assess how President Trump is faring after more than a year and a half in office.
Sep 03, 2018
Debugging The Model
In this episode of Model Talk, Nate talks about debugging the model and answers questions from listeners, including one surprise listener by the name of Rush.
Aug 30, 2018
Impeachment: A FiveThirtyEight Debate
The crew discusses the legacy of Senator John McCain. They also debate how Democrats should approach the question of impeachment.
Aug 27, 2018
What Does It Mean To Be 'Electable'?
Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari discuss what "electability" means and consider whether it's a useful term for assessing candidates.
Aug 23, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Cohen + Manafort = !!!
The podcast crew reacts to a guilty plea from Michael Cohen and a guilty verdict for Paul Manafort on the same day.
Aug 21, 2018
Democrats Are Competing Everywhere
The crew discusses their takeaways from the new 2018 House forecast. They also sort through new data on how Trump voters' views have evolved or not since 2016.
Aug 20, 2018
The Upset Of The Season
In the heat of the news of Justice Kennedy's retirement, this podcast might have been lost forever. The team reacts to a major primary upset in New York's 14th district.
Jun 28, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Kennedy Is Retiring
The podcast team reacts to the news that Justice Anthony Kennedy is retiring from the U.S. Supreme Court.
Jun 27, 2018
Is Immigration The Issue of 2018?
The team discusses the continuing fallout from Trump's policy of separating families that illegally cross the border. They also ask why there aren't more GOP women in Congress
Jun 25, 2018
Bonus Episode: Masculinity In 2018
FiveThirtyEight partnered with WNYC's Death, Sex & Money podcast to do a survey asking what men think about being a man in 2018.
Jun 21, 2018
The Immigration Flashpoint
The team discusses the separation of children and parents at the border and the role that immigration plays in the GOP. They also react to a SCOTUS decision on gerrymandering.
Jun 18, 2018
Emergency Podcast: The Inspector General's Report
Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr. discuss the political implications of the inspector general's report on the 2016 FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton.
Jun 14, 2018
The Super Tuesday Of The Midterms
Eight states are holding primary contests on Tuesday, including California, where the top two primary system could create some interesting results.
Jun 04, 2018
The Polls Are All Right
FiveThirtyEight has updated its pollster ratings for the first time since before the 2016 election. Nate and Galen discuss the state of polling and what to expect in 2018.
May 31, 2018
Things Look Less Good For Dems
Democrats' advantage in generic ballot polling has declined in recent months. The crew debates what that tells us about their prospects this fall.
May 29, 2018
A Year Of Mueller
The team takes stock of where the Mueller probe stands one year on. They also discuss Democrats' debate over reducing the role of superdelegates in presidential primaries.
May 21, 2018
A Democratic Squabble In Texas
Does the fault line in the Democratic Party really run through Texas's 7th district? Clare and Galen compare the candidates in what's become a contentious Democratic primary.
May 17, 2018
Partisanship Is A Hell Of A Drug
The team discusses partisanship in the first of a series of conversations about the midterms called "Priors." They also look at Americans' views of Trump's foreign policy.
May 14, 2018
Special Episode: Chasing Hillary
Nate Silver and Clare Malone sit down Amy Chozick, the author of "Chasing Hillary: Ten Years, Two Presidential Campaigns, and One Intact Glass Ceiling."
May 10, 2018
Primary Season Begins
Tuesday is the fist big primary Election Day of the 2018 midterms. The team discusses the most important races to watch. They also debate whether Trump deserves more credit.
May 07, 2018
The Giuliani Rampage Podcast
President Trump's new lawyer Rudy Giuliani contradicted the president about payments to Stormy Daniels during a two-day long media rampage.
May 04, 2018
How Much Trouble Is Manchin In?
Joe Manchin is one of ten Democrats defending a Senate seat in a state Trump won. The team looks at the Republicans vying to challenge him in West Virginia.
Apr 30, 2018
About That Texas Poll
The team debates whether the Texas Senate race is actually winnable for the Democrat. They also discuss the special election in Arizona and how to responsibly cover polls.
Apr 23, 2018
The Comey Episode
The crew debates the significance of former FBI Director James Comey's new tell-all book. They also look at public opinion of the recent U.S. airstrikes in Syria.
Apr 16, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Ryan To Retire
House Speaker Paul Ryan announced Wednesday morning that he will not seek reelection in 2018. Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari react to the news.
Apr 11, 2018
The Nightmare Midterms Hack
The team describes what a nightmare elections hack scenario would look like, based on reporting by Clare Malone. They also discuss the continuous scandals at the EPA.
Apr 10, 2018
Emergency Podcast: FBI Raids Trump's Lawyer's Office
The podcast crew responds to the news that the FBI raided the office and home of President Trump's personal lawyer Michael Cohen.
Apr 09, 2018
FiveThirtyEight Family Feud
The team plays a round of "FiveThirtyEight Family Feud" to help determine Trump's strengths and weakness. They also debate the merits of census's new citizenship question.
Apr 03, 2018
Special: Cambridge Analytica, Facebook, and Political Data
Clare Malone and Jody Avirgan speak with Daniel Kreiss of UNC about the use of FB data in the 2016 election -- and beyond. Listen to the history of data and politics series here:
Mar 29, 2018
How Do We Cover Stormy Daniels?
The team debates how to cover the alleged coverup and affair between Stormy Daniels and President Trump. They also dive into new data showing Americans are as divided as ever.
Mar 26, 2018
What If Trump Fired Mueller?
President Trump tore into the investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller this weekend. The team discusses what would happen if Trump fired Mueller.
Mar 19, 2018
The GOP Should Be Freaking Out, PA Edition
Democrat Conor Lamb looks poised to win in a Pennsylvania district that voted for Trump by 20 points. The podcast team discusses what the results mean for the midterms.
Mar 14, 2018
Emergency Podcast: Rexit
President Trump announced Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's firing on twitter Tuesday morning. The podcast team reacts.
Mar 13, 2018
The Most Special Special Election Yet
The crew discusses the candidates and environment heading into Tuesday's special election in Pennsylvania's 18th district - a district that Trump won by 20 points.
Mar 12, 2018
Does Trump's Mood Matter?
The team makes sense of a week of chaos at the White House and what it says about Trump's decision making. They also discuss how academics rank presidential achievement.
Mar 05, 2018
A Turning Point On Guns?
The team discusses whether the high school shooting in Parkland, FL is a turning point in the gun debate. They also play a round of political "would you rather?"
Feb 26, 2018
The Gun Debate
This episode is dedicated entirely to discussing the gun debate. The crew looks at public opinion, political strategy and what is likely to happen next.
Feb 20, 2018
Emergency Podcast: 13 Russians Indicted
The team responds to news that 13 Russians and 3 companies have been indicted in the special counsel investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.
Feb 16, 2018
What's So Wrong With Nancy Pelosi?
The crew debates why Nancy Pelosi is such a target for Republican attacks and whether those attacks will actually move voters.
Feb 12, 2018
Has Trump Remade The GOP?
The team debates whether the Nunes memo was much ado about nothing, and discusses Trump's effect on the Republican Party.
Feb 05, 2018
Which Version Of Trump's Presidency Is Happening?
One year in, the day before Trump's first (proper) State Of The Union address, we revisit the "14 Paths" and discuss what version of President Trump we ended up with.
Jan 29, 2018
The Three-Day Shutdown
The Senate voted to end the shutdown less than three days after it began. Did Democrats get what they wanted? The team also discusses the uptick in Trump's approval rating.
Jan 22, 2018
Emergency Podcast - Government Shutdown
The politics team discusses the repercussions of the government shutdown after the Senate failed to pass a stopgap spending bill Friday night.
Jan 19, 2018
Immigration Showdown
With a government shutdown looming, Democrats and Republicans have hit an impasse over immigration policy. The crew discusses what's at stake.
Jan 16, 2018
The Gerrymandering Project: Conclusion
In the final episode of our gerrymandering series we consider some more radical electoral reforms and look back on the lessons we've learned.
Jan 11, 2018
Oprah, Palace Intrigue And Nuclear War
The crew discusses the possibility of an Oprah presidential run, a new book about the Trump White House and Trump's behavior towards North Korea.
Jan 08, 2018
The Gerrymandering Project: California
California took significant steps to try to rid redistricting of partisan politics. Politicians still sought to influence the process. Did they succeed?
Jan 04, 2018
Our Political Journalism Resolutions
2018 is here! We discuss our political reporting resolutions -- both for ourselves and the media in general -- as we head into a big new year.
Jan 01, 2018
Who's Running In 2020?
The crew throws caution to the wind and debates which Democrats are best positioned to do well in the 2020 presidential primary.
Dec 25, 2017
The Gerrymandering Project: Arizona
The number of competitive congressional elections has fallen dramatically in recent decades. Arizona tried to combat that trend.
Dec 21, 2017
Lessons From Alabama
The politics team sorts through the hot takes from last week's Senate election in Alabama. They also discuss the political implications of the proposed GOP tax overhaul.
Dec 18, 2017
The Gerrymandering Project: North Carolina
A decades long debate has raged over how to ensure minorities have a voice in America. In the third installment of our series, we look at racial gerrymandering.
Dec 14, 2017
Emergency Podcast: Doug Jones Wins
Doug Jones became the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Alabama in a quarter century. The team discusses the factors that converged to make that possible.
Dec 12, 2017
The Alabama Election Is Here
The Alabama special Senate election is Tuesday. The polls have varied significantly in an election where turnout is hard to predict. The team weighs in on what to expect.
Dec 11, 2017
The Gerrymandering Project: Wisconsin
Is partisan gerrymandering illegal? In the second installment of our gerrymandering series we look at a Supreme Court case that could reshape how we draw political boundaries.
Dec 07, 2017
Are Taxes A Pyrrhic Victory?
The Senate passed a tax overhaul bill Friday night. The team weighs the political and policy implications and follow up on the fallout from Michael Flynn's guilty plea.
Dec 04, 2017
Emergency Podcast: Flynn Flips
A quick conversation in reaction the big news that Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about conversations with Russian officials.
Dec 01, 2017
The Gerrymandering Project: Intro
What is gerrymandering? This is the first episode in a six-part series exploring the effects of gerrymandering and how reformers hope to change the system.
Nov 30, 2017
Congress's Broken Culture
Lawmakers return to Washington under pressure to confront sexual harassment by their own ranks. The podcast team also looks at the latest in the Alabama special Senate race.
Nov 27, 2017
Alabama Is Tied
The Alabama special Senate race is now tied, after numerous accusation that Republican Roy Moore molested and assaulted teenage girls. The podcast team reacts.
Nov 20, 2017
Franken Is Accused Of Harassment
Leeann Tweeden accused Senator Al Franken of kissing and groping her without her consent while on a USO tour in the Middle East. The podcast team reacts.
Nov 16, 2017
Alabama's Senate Race
Five women have accused Roy Moore, Republican candidate for Senate from Alabama, of sexual misconduct. The team assesses how this will affect the final month of the campaign.
Nov 13, 2017
2016 Anniversary Talk
A year after the 2016 election, Nate & Micah sit down to discuss what it was like to cover the race - from the mistakes FiveThirtyEight made to the emotions of the final weeks
Nov 08, 2017
A Good Night For Democrats
The podcast team responds to strong showing by Democrats across the board on Election Day 2017
Nov 07, 2017
Election Day 2017
Will Democrats begin their comeback on Election Day 2017? The podcast team shares advice on which races to watch and what the margins mean.
Nov 06, 2017
Sexual Harassment In Media And Politics
Major figures in political journalism are alleged to have been serial sexual harassers. What does it mean to have those men in charge of the way political news gets made?
Nov 04, 2017
Mueller's First Strike
Ex-chairman of the Trump campaign Paul Manafort was indicted along with two other campaign aides as part of Bob Mueller's special investigation. The team weighs in.
Oct 30, 2017
Emergency Podcast - Flake Is Out
GOP Sen. Jeff Flake from Arizona, a repeated Trump critic, announced he will not seek reelection in 2018. The podcast team discusses what that means for Arizona and the GOP.
Oct 24, 2017
Could Alabama Go Blue?
The 2017 elections are not far off. The team looks at the candidates and polling in the Virginia governor's race and Alabama's special Senate race.
Oct 23, 2017
Steve Bannon's War
Steve Bannon declared "war" on the GOP establishment at the Values Voter Summit last week. The podcast team discusses what that will mean for the 2018 midterms.
Oct 16, 2017
Corker Uncorked
GOP Senator Corker and President Trump went at each other over the weekend. The podcast weighs in on how Corker's criticism of Trump could affect GOP politics.
Oct 09, 2017
Trump's Response To Maria
The Trump administration is facing multiple crises: a mass shooting in Las Vegas, Puerto Rico recovering from hurricane Maria and rising tensions with North Korea.
Oct 02, 2017
Is Partisan Gerrymandering Illegal?
The Supreme Court is hearing a partisan gerrymandering case that could reshape how our democracy works. FiveThirtyEight brings you a deep dive into what is at stake.
Sep 28, 2017
Trump vs. The NFL
Over the weekend, President Trump targeted the NFL for player protests and was rebuked by owners, players and the players union. The podcast team weighs in.
Sep 25, 2017
Emergency Podcast: McCain Is A No
Sen. McCain is a no on the latest ACA repeal effort. The team debates what comes next.
Sep 22, 2017
Democrats Divided
As the Democratic Party increasingly embraces single payer healthcare and Clinton weighs in on her primary race against Sanders, the team discusses where the party is headed.
Sep 18, 2017
What Happened
Hillary Clinton is releasing a book this week chronicling what went wrong during her 2016 campaign from her perspective. The podcast team sizes up her assessment.
Sep 11, 2017
Immigration Politics
The White House has decided to end the DACA program. The podcast team weighs in on how voters view DACA and what Congress's options are for replacing it.
Sep 05, 2017
Harvey Tests Trump
Amid historic flooding in East Texas, the team talks about the political challenges natural disasters can pose to local officials, governors and the president.
Aug 28, 2017
How Trump Talks About Race
The team talks to political science professor Vincent Hutchings about the way Donald Trump spoke about race in the aftermath of Charlottesville.
Aug 21, 2017
Emergency Podcast - Bannon Out
In this emergency podcast, the team talks about what Steve Bannon's departure from the White House means for the people who remain.
Aug 18, 2017
Trump's Response To Charlottesville
President Trump did not condemn white supremacy by name in his initial response to the violence in Charlottesville. The team discusses the reasons and repercussions.
Aug 14, 2017
Enter The Grand Jury
The team weighs the significance of Bob Mueller empaneling a grand jury in the Russia investigation. They also look at persisting rifts in the Democratic Party.
Aug 07, 2017
Special Presentation: 30 for 30 Podcasts
A break from politics with an excerpt of a new audio documentary from 30 for 30 Podcasts, which our very own Jody Avirgan heads up. We present "The Fighter Inside," reported by Andrew Mambo. More at
Aug 05, 2017
White House Chaos
The team breaks down the latest White House staffing shakeups and asks how Chief of Staff John Kelly might correct course amid the chaos.
Jul 31, 2017
Emergency Podcast - Senate Repeal Fails
The podcast team breaks down the final votes and weighs who is most responsible for the Republican failure: Trump, McConnell or Ryan.
Jul 28, 2017
The GOP's Last(?) Ditch Health Care Push
The podcast team considers the options for Senate Republicans as they face a last ditch effort to repeal the ACA. Plus, how different would a Clinton presidency have been?
Jul 24, 2017
Six Months In
The podcast team digests the Senate's latest health care bill and debates which path Trump's presidency is on six months in.
Jul 17, 2017
Emergency Podcast - Don Jr.'s Emails
The podcast team reacts to emails in which Donald Trump Jr. accepts a meeting with a Kremlin-linked lawyer offering dirt on Hillary Clinton.
Jul 13, 2017
Why Trump Wants Voter Data
The crew discusses the Trump administration's request for voter data and why states are pushing back. Plus, with another good jobs report, can Trump claim to own the economy?
Jul 10, 2017
Trump Goes Global
Ahead of the G20 summit, the podcast team looks at changes in global perceptions of American leadership since Trump took office.
Jul 06, 2017
The Health Care Episode
The podcast team discusses the policies in the Senate GOP health care bill and debates whether it's likely to pass.
Jun 26, 2017
Emergency Podcast - Georgia And South Carolina Specials
The podcast team responds to the results of the special elections in Georgia's 6th district and South Carolina's 5th district.
Jun 20, 2017
The Most Special Special Election
The special election in Georgia's 6th district has become the most expensive House election in American history. The podcast team debates how much it matters.
Jun 19, 2017
Trump Under Investigation
The podcast team responds to new reports that President Trump is under FBI investigation for obstruction of justice.
Jun 15, 2017
The Base
The podcast team debates who actually makes up the base in each party and what role they will play in upcoming elections.
Jun 12, 2017
Emergency Podcast - Hung Parliament
No party won a majority in the U.K. election, resulting in a hung parliament. The podcast team reacts.
Jun 09, 2017
Emergency Podcast - Comey's Testimony
The podcast team reacts to former FBI Director James Comey's testimony about the events that lead up to his firing by President Trump.
Jun 08, 2017
Emergency Podcast - Comey's Prepared Testimony
The podcast team discusses former FBI Director James Comey's prepared testimony to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
Jun 07, 2017
Pittsburgh vs. Paris
The podcast team debates the political savvy of Trump's exit from the Paris climate agreement. Nate takes a look at what's going on in the crazy world of UK elections polls.
Jun 05, 2017
Do Democrats Need A Win?
The podcast team debates whether a Democratic loss in Montana's special election means challenges ahead for the party. They also parse smoke from fire in the Russia scandal.
May 30, 2017
What Now?
After the appointment of a special counsel to investigate possible ties between Trump's campaign and Russia, can the White House return to business as usual?
May 22, 2017
Emergency Podcast - The Comey Memo
The podcast crew assesses the fallout from reports of a memo by former FBI Director Comey in which he detailed conversations with President Trump.
May 17, 2017
The Scandal Meter
The podcast team sizes up how big of a scandal Comey's firing actually is. They also discuss how the census director's departure could affect the upcoming census.
May 15, 2017
Emergency Podcast: Trump Fires Comey
News broke late on Tuesday that President Trump fired FBI Director James Comey. We hop in the studio to discuss.
May 09, 2017
Health Care Winners And Losers
The podcast team talks to Anna Barry-Jester about how the GOP health care bill will affect real people. They also discuss the sizable polling miss in the French election.
May 08, 2017
Emergency Health Care Podcast II
The podcast team talks about the political implications of the AHCA health care bill passing the House.
May 05, 2017
99 Trial Balloons
The podcast team makes sense of Trump's one page tax plan with Ben Casselman. They also debate how the media has performed 100 days into the Trump presidency.
May 01, 2017
100 Days
The team assesses Trump's legislative agenda as he ends his first 100 days. They also discuss the Earth Day protests and gauge populism's appeal after the French election.
Apr 24, 2017
Georgia's 6th - Live From New York
The podcast team responds to GA-6 results live from the Comedy Cellar in New York. They also discuss upcoming European elections, play trivia and answer audience questions.
Apr 19, 2017
Trump's Paths, Revisited
The podcast team assesses the special elections in Kansas and Georgia and takes stock of President Trump's governing style as his administration approaches 100 days.
Apr 17, 2017
The Trump Doctrine (Maybe?)
The podcast team talks about Trump's decision to authorize airstrikes against Assad's regime in Syria and tracks who in Trump's circle is gaining and losing influence.
Apr 10, 2017
Sparks: Why Health Care Costs So Much
Our science team discusses Elizabeth Rosenthal's "An American Sickness." To catch part two, subscribe to What's The Point in iTunes or
Apr 08, 2017
Filibuster Time
The podcast team discusses the political calculus of Democrats filibustering Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch. The crew also plays a new game: Smoke or Fire?
Apr 03, 2017
Live From Boise
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live from the Treefort Fest in Boise, Idaho. The team talks to Mayor Dave Bieter, plays a round of political trivia and answers questions.
Mar 27, 2017
Emergency Health Care Podcast: Live From Boise
Live from the Hackfort Festival in Boise, Idaho the podcast discusses the decision by Republicans to pull their health care bill without a vote in the House.
Mar 24, 2017
Three Polls And A SCOTUS Nominee
The podcast team discusses what to expect during a week of SCOTUS confirmation hearings and debates whether Americans' views on healthcare have truly shifted.
Mar 20, 2017
The podcast team discusses whether the new GOP health care bill has a shot at becoming law. David Wasserman also joins the show to help measure trends in partisanship.
Mar 13, 2017
Hot Takedown: Politics In Sports
We bring you an excerpt from FiveThirtyEight's Hot Takedown podcast about why politics are more visible in sports today. Subscribe at (And if you're going to be at SXSW, come see Jody's events!)
Mar 09, 2017
Anatomy Of A Scandal
In light of continued questions over the Trump administration's relationship with Russia, Brandon Rottinghaus joins the podcast to talk about what can make a scandal damaging.
Mar 06, 2017
Party People
The podcast team wraps up the Party Time series and welcomes Perry Bacon Jr. to the staff, who will be covering the Trump administration from DC.
Feb 27, 2017
Party Time: 'Establishment' Democrats
In the final installment of "Party Time," Galen Druke and Clare Malone speak with so-called "establishment" Democrats about what went wrong in 2016 and what's to come.
Feb 23, 2017
A Month Of Trump
The Trump administration is one month old. The podcast team reflects on the biggest changes so far.
Feb 21, 2017
Party Time: The Bernie Sanders Party
In the third installment of "Party Time," Galen Druke and Clare Malone speak with Bernie Sanders supporters about their vision for the future of the Democratic Party.
Feb 16, 2017
Emergency Podcast: This Russia Stuff
Nate Silver, Jody Avirgan, and Micah Cohen jump into the studio to discuss what's smoke and what's fire in the latest reporting around the Donald Trump camp's ties to Russia.
Feb 15, 2017
Tea Party Parallels
Political observers are drawing parallels between today's anti-Trump protests and the tea party protests of 2009. The podcast crew digs into whether the comparisons are apt.
Feb 13, 2017
Party Time: Republicans Skeptical Of Trump
In the second installment of "Party Time," Galen Druke and Clare Malone speak with Republicans who are wary of Trump about where the GOP is headed.
Feb 09, 2017
Trump Vs. The Courts
The podcast team weighs in on Trump's response after a judge temporarily blocked his travel ban. They also discuss Trump's take on negative polls and his economic plan.
Feb 06, 2017
Party Time: The GOP Under Trump
In the first episode of our mini-series "Party Time," Galen Druke and Clare Malone speak with Trump allies about where the Republican Party is headed in the era of Trump.
Feb 02, 2017
Emergency Podcast: The SCOTUS Battle Ahead
The usual crew is joined by 538's Oliver Roeder (aka @ollie) to discuss the nomination of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court, his history on the bench, and what comes next.
Feb 01, 2017
Chaos At The White House
President Trump's first week in office proved chaotic. The podcast crew looks for a strategy behind the chaos and talks to Meenekshi Bose about the shakeup in NSC membership.
Jan 30, 2017
The Beginning Of The Trump Presidency
Donald Trump's first few days as president were marked by executive orders, "alternative facts" and mass protests. Julia Azari and Erica Chenoweth help make sense of it.
Jan 23, 2017
Trump Vs. The Polls -- Vol. II
President-elect Trump is waging a new battle against polling, arguing his approval rating is "rigged." We break down the difference between approval rating and horserace polls
Jan 17, 2017
Trump And The Senate
The podcast team looks at the budding relationship between the Trump administration and the U.S. Senate. Confirmation hearings begin this week and ACA debate is underway.
Jan 09, 2017
Data Under Trump
A special episode on government data and the coming Trump administration. Featuring our usual crew and 538's Ben Casselman, Maggie Koerth-Baker, and Carl Bialik.
Jan 02, 2017
538 + The West Wing Weekly (Live)
Audio from our live show at LA's Crest Theater this summer discussing the use of polling in The West Wing. Subscribe to TWWW here!
Dec 26, 2016
2016 Final Thoughts
The podcast takes a moment to look back on 2016. They also discuss the latest from North Carolina's legislature and assess the future of Midwest electoral politics.
Dec 19, 2016
Russian Interference
The podcast crew discusses the latest news on Russia's interference in the presidential election and Amy Walter joins the show to talk about "draining the swamp."
Dec 12, 2016
Still Processing...
Nate and Harry report on a post-election forum where it was clear that emotions are still very raw. Then, economics editor Ben Casselman discusses Trump's new deals.
Dec 05, 2016
Recount, Really?
The team discusses whether Jill Stein's push for ballot recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania defies norms. They also debate how to cover Trump's tweets.
Nov 28, 2016
Americans Don't Trust Their Institutions
Julia Azari joins the show to talk about the historical precedent for Trump's administration thus far. Clare Malone talks about her latest reporting on trust in institutions.
Nov 21, 2016
The Transition Begins
The podcast crew uses new data to assess the conventional wisdom about the election and looks at President-elect Trump's first decisions in his new role.
Nov 14, 2016
Model Talk Debriefs The 2016 Results
Good Use Of Polling Or Bad Use Of Polling: The Model
Nov 11, 2016
President Trump
The day after Donald Trump won the 2016 election, our podcast crew gathered to discuss the path he took to secure the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.
Nov 09, 2016
Long Night; We'll Be Back In The Morning
Just a quick note to tell you that we're going to do a podcast mid-morning Wednesday to process Election Day 2016. Talk then.
Nov 08, 2016
It's Here - Final Election Preview
In our final preview of the 2016 election we assess the forecast model, discuss defining moments of the campaign and prepare for Election Day.
Nov 07, 2016
2 Days Left - House And Senate Preview
Dave Wasserman and Harry Enten discuss what to expect on Tuesday in key House and Senate races. We'll do our final presidential preview on Monday.
Nov 06, 2016
Bonus: Our Elections Docs
Revisit our three audio documentaries on past political moments. The Real Dean Scream | Obama/Wright (starts at 30:15) | Perot The Spoiler? (starts at 1:07:30)
Nov 06, 2016
3 Days Left (Diner Pod!)
Jody, Clare and Farai head to the diner to talk about the final days of the campaign, Latino turnout, lessons from Brexit and more.
Nov 05, 2016
4 Days Left
Today we talk about recent polls, how the media is covering the final days, and look at a vague Florida ballot initiative. Today's vid:
Nov 04, 2016
5 Days Left
The team discusses Clinton's polling trend lines, one Ohio bellwether county, and minimum wage initiatives. Today's vid:
Nov 03, 2016
6 Days Left
Today the crew discusses why there are fewer polls this cycle, how to read early voting numbers, and WA's proposed carbon tax. Today's vid:
Nov 02, 2016
7 Days Left
In today's episode the crew talks about remaining surprises, how the model makes final calculations, and CA's proposition conundrum. Today's vid:
Nov 01, 2016
8 Days Left
In the latest of our daily podcasts, the crew talks about the media's response to James Comey's letter to Congress and discusses which states are in play in the final week.
Oct 31, 2016