Thoughts on the Market

By Morgan Stanley

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Description

Short, thoughtful and regular takes on recent events in the markets from a variety of perspectives and voices within Morgan Stanley.


Episode Date
Andrew Sheets: The Critical Calls of Financial Referees
00:03:18

Governments and central banks face two issues: A flight to liquidity and a global economy that showed signs of fatigue even before the pandemic. For investors seeking opportunities, it’s an important distinction.

Mar 27, 2020
Special Episode: Can $2 Trillion Flatten the Unemployment Curve?
00:06:27

As a record 3.28 million workers file for unemployment, our Chief U.S. Economist and Chief U.S. Public Policy researcher weigh potential effects from the fiscal package now before Congress.

Mar 26, 2020
Michael Zezas: Sizing Up the Stimulus Package
00:02:51

Congressional leaders have reached a deal on a $2 trillion stimulus bill to deal with fallout from the coronavirus crisis. Will it work? Two criteria to watch for.

Mar 25, 2020
Mike Wilson: The Underlying Reasons for Recession
00:03:48

Mike Wilson looks beyond the coronavirus outbreak at the two key conditions which have made the markets vulnerable to a recession.

Mar 23, 2020
Andrew Sheets: First, Improve on Uncertainty
00:03:19

On this episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says that the 4%+ swings in equities markets have made investors skeptical about jumping back in. More U.S. testing could help.

Mar 20, 2020
Andrew Sheets: Why We Think Risk/Reward Is Improving
00:03:45

Although the sell-off may not be over and the global economy has tough days ahead, a growing number of factors suggest that risk/reward in markets may be getting better.

Mar 19, 2020
Special Episode: Imagining the Shape of Recovery
00:07:29

As central banks and governments weigh a litany of stimulus efforts, what could the journey to economic recovery look like? Our Chief U.S. Economist and Head of U.S. Public Policy Research sum up the debates.

Mar 18, 2020
Michael Zezas: Inside the Municipal Bond Liquidity Trap
00:02:35

When markets get volatile, strange things start to happen in markets you might not expect. That's both a sign of stress, and in some cases, a sign of opportunity.

Mar 17, 2020
Mike Wilson: The End of The Cyclical Bear Market?
00:04:24

Just three months ago, market expectations were likely overoptimistic. That's how tops are made. Today, they are maybe too pessimistic… and that's how bottoms are made.

Mar 16, 2020
Andrew Sheets: The Comfort of Market Patterns
00:03:01

Although current market swings suggest that we are in serious, unpredictable times, a look through market history may reveal where we’re headed next.

Mar 13, 2020
Michael Zezas: Oil Exporter Tensions Add to Market Worries
00:02:18

The dual challenges of the coronavirus and the collapse of the OPEC plus arrangement intensifies the need for a fiscal response from Washington. Head of Public Policy Research Michael Zezas explains.

Mar 11, 2020
Special Episode: The Road Ahead
00:08:00

Investors reacted strongly as oil prices and coronavirus worries disrupted markets. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Chief U.S. Economist Ellen Zentner debate what’s next.

Mar 10, 2020
Mike Wilson: Revisiting the Rolling Bear Market
00:04:32

The recent correction in equity markets suggests that the fourth quarter rally in 2019 may have been a false breakout—and the rolling bear has unfinished business.

Mar 09, 2020
Andrew Sheets: Patience as an Investing Virtue
00:02:39

Two competing forces—hopes for further central bank moves vs. coronavirus uncertainty—are driving a notable rise in volatility. What signal should investors watch for signs of a potential rebound?

Mar 06, 2020
Michael Zezas: Lessons from Super Tuesday
00:03:57

From an investment standpoint, are there lessons to be learned from Joe Biden’s strong showing on Super Tuesday? Yes, but not the ones you might think.

Mar 04, 2020
Special Episode: A Policy Fix Isn’t Easy
00:02:54

U.S. stocks fell Tuesday despite a half point rate cut by the Fed. Is conventional wisdom wrong that lower interest rates and central bank support are positives for stocks?

Mar 03, 2020
Andrew Sheets: Coronavirus: Are Markets Overreacting?
00:03:15

Global equity markets have endured several days of losses as worries over the coronavirus continue. The question for many investors is “What to do now?”

Feb 27, 2020
Special Episode: Coronavirus as Catalyst
00:03:19

Markets have spent the week increasingly concerned about the coronavirus, but Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says there’s a lot more going on beyond the headlines.

Feb 26, 2020
Michael Zezas: Medicare for All… for Investors
00:02:50

Senator Bernie Sanders’ recent primary wins are causing some to debate the impact of potential new health care reform on markets. Head of U.S. Public Policy Research Michael Zezas shares three insights.

Feb 26, 2020
Mike Wilson: All Hail the 50/50 Portfolio?
00:04:05

In a world of low interest rates and low growth expectations, one portfolio strategy seems likely to continue working for investors. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains.

Feb 24, 2020
Andrew Sheets: Why 2020 May Be Tricky for Investors
00:03:23

Although current stock market performance suggests strong economic health, below the surface the story looks a bit different. Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains.

Feb 21, 2020
Michael Zezas: Coronavirus and “Slowbalization”
00:01:50

On today's episode: The impact of the coronavirus underscores the risks of unexpected disruptions of global supply chains. A look at the cost-benefits of globalization.

Feb 18, 2020
Andrew Sheets: Will Returns Be Front-Loaded in 2020?
00:03:10

On today's episode: Investors are faced with a number of uncertainties from public health concerns to trade to central bank policy. But as the year plays out, those uncertainties could actually grow.

Feb 14, 2020
Michael Zezas: Notes from New Hampshire
00:02:24

On today's episode: With no shortage of pundits weighing in on the Democratic primaries, it’s easy for investors to lean on assumptions. But Head of Public Policy Research Michael Zezas suggests some caution.

Feb 12, 2020
Mike Wilson: Knowing Where to Look
00:04:17

On today's episode: The recent, relatively small, overall market correction masks more significant shifts between asset classes. Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer, on the implications for our understanding of market optimism and future growth. 

Feb 10, 2020
Andrew Sheets: Supply Also Matters
00:03:07

On today's episode, Discussions about financial markets often center on issues of demand. Andrew Sheets takes a look at the supply trends that may impact debt and equity markets globally in 2020.

Feb 07, 2020
Michael Zezas: The Limited Lives of Multiple Narratives
00:02:32

On today's episode, Recent events have added little clarity to the policy choices U.S. voters will face in the November presidential elections, but that won't last forever.

Feb 05, 2020
Mike Wilson: The Tug of War for U.S. Equites
00:03:54

On today's episode, U.S. equities face concerns over global growth—caused by the coronavirus and other catalysts—but plentiful liquidity from the Fed. Thoughts on positioning from Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson.

Feb 04, 2020
Jonathan Garner: What Can SARS Tell Us About the Coronavirus?
00:03:11

On today's episode, To understand the impact of the Coronavirus on humanity, economics and markets, Chief Asia and Emerging Markets Equity Strategist Jonathan Garner draws parallels with the 2002 SARS outbreak.

Jan 31, 2020
Andrew Sheets: Coronavirus Affects the Narrative
00:02:29

On today's episode, Nations try to address the public health impact of the coronavirus alongside uncertainty about the global outlook for 2020. Perspective from Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist.

Jan 30, 2020
Andrew Sheets: Are More Countries Saying Deficits Don’t Matter?
00:03:36

On today's episode, Only a decade ago, market analysts and political observers were saying sovereign deficits were bad. Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains why that view may be changing.

Jan 29, 2020
Michael Zezas: Taxation Complicates U.S.-EU Trade
00:01:48

On today's episode, Although the U.S and China have found a way forward on trade negotiations, a clear path for U.S.-EU trade is getting slightly more complicated.

Jan 27, 2020
Andrew Sheets: As 2020 Begins, Investors Get Optimistic
00:03:25

On today's episode, Skepticism was the prevailing investor attitude for most of 2019, but what a difference a quarter can make. So what changed? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets talks changing sentiment as 2020 kicks off.

Jan 24, 2020
Michael Zezas: Do Incumbents Always Win with a Strong Economy?
00:02:04

On today's episode, How reliable is the maxim that a good economy means a presidential incumbent re-election? Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas looks at history.

Jan 22, 2020
Mike Wilson: Pressure Testing the Bull Case
00:03:59

On today's episode, Progress on trade and Brexit, upbeat sentiment and central bank support have investors optimistic on the bull case narrative. Even so, it’s worth a quick inspection for surprises.

Jan 21, 2020
Andrew Sheets: Remember Fundamentals?
00:02:40

On today's episode, Central bank support and low interest rates helped drive markets higher in 2019 despite lackluster earnings. But 2020 could remind investors why earnings trends are still what matters.

Jan 17, 2020
Michael Zezas: The Other Concern for U.S. Trade
00:02:04

On today's episode, Although negotiations are progressing for U.S-China trade, investors shouldn’t overlook possible tensions with another key trading region: The EU.

Jan 15, 2020
Jonathan Garner: An Underappreciated Turnaround Story?
00:03:19

Jonathan Garner, Chief Asia and Emerging Markets equity strategist kicks off his premiere episode with what is likely the most interesting—and overlooked—turnaround story in equity markets.


Jan 14, 2020
Mike Wilson: The Other Type of Income Inequality
00:03:53

On today's episode, Rising labor, regulatory and cyber security costs are weighing heavily on many small caps. Is corporate income inequality as urgent an issue as individual inequality?

Jan 13, 2020
Andrew Sheets: Mapping the Future of Oil Prices
00:02:44

On today's episode, Geopolitical tensions have driven oil prices—and volatility—higher. But a quick glance at 2022 oil futures prices can tell us a lot about the market’s longer-term view.

Jan 10, 2020
Michael Zezas: What’s Next on U.S.-China Trade?
00:01:57

On today's episode, As a Phase One trade deal nears completion, can investors worry less about the risks of tariff escalations? Not so fast, says head of U.S. public policy Michael Zezas.

Jan 08, 2020
Mike Wilson: Weighing Fed Intervention, Geopolitics
00:03:42

On today's episode, As 2020 begins, central bank moves and reawakened geopolitical risk promise to be key market catalysts. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson details the potential impact on portfolios.

Jan 07, 2020
Andrew Sheets: A New Chapter for the United Kingdom
00:03:14

On today's episode, For three and a half years, Brexit has been a source of uncertainty for the United Kingdom and its markets. Now, with some business uncertainty reduced, a new narrative may be emerging.

Jan 03, 2020
Mike Wilson: 2020 and the Return to Reflation
00:04:22

On today's episode, why escalating labor costs, deglobalization and central bank policies may mean positioning portfolios toward stocks that benefit from rising inflation.

Dec 23, 2019
Andrew Sheets: 3 Lessons from 2019… for 2020
00:03:45

On today's episode, What important factors from 2019 could give investors context on the investing climate ahead? Consider valuations, policy and inflation.

Dec 20, 2019
Michael Zezas: Markets Mull the “Phase One” Deal
00:02:15

On today's episode, What will the U.S-China “Phase One” trade deal mean for the global economy, corporate confidence and markets? Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas weighs in.

Dec 18, 2019
Mike Wilson: A Trifecta of Positive Catalysts
00:03:41

On today's episode, A dovish Fed, progress on trade and a path toward a potentially orderly Brexit are driving global equities higher but how much of the global recovery is already priced?

Dec 16, 2019
Andrew Sheets: 2020 Playbook: Analyzing the Bull Case
00:02:51

In this special two part bull/bear series, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets shares insight on the catalysts that could drive strong market returns in 2020.

Dec 13, 2019
Special Episode: Manufacturing Data Sends an Upbeat Signal
00:02:35

On this episode with special guest Chetan Ahya, the firm’s Chief Global Economist, Trade tensions have put a damper on global manufacturing, but is the tide poised to turn after the first broad-based sentiment uptick in seven months?

Dec 12, 2019
Michael Zezas: U.S.-China Trade: What Happens in 2020?
00:02:03

On today's episode, Although some reports have suggested progress on a phase one deal, markets are still seeking a clear signal forward on trade—and that means tackling the more difficult phase two deal.

Dec 11, 2019
Mike Wilson: The Virtuous Circle of Excess Liquidity
00:04:11

On today's episode, Central banks seem likely to continue their balance sheet expansion into next year, driving lower volatility, more cash into equities… and some great expectations.

Dec 09, 2019
Andrew Sheets: 2020 Playbook: Analyzing the Bear Case
00:02:56

In this special two part bull/bear series, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets shares insight on the catalysts that could hamper market returns in 2020.

Dec 06, 2019
Michael Zezas: How Do Close U.S. Elections Affect Markets?
00:01:53

On today's episode, On average, election-year market performance varies by about 9% for elections that are narrow contests vs. elections with a clear frontrunner. So how could 2020 pan out?

Dec 04, 2019
Mike Wilson: A Volatility Reprieve
00:04:07

On today's episode, Whether it's called quantitative easing or not, the recent expansion in central bank balance sheets is having a profound impact on volatility - Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains why.

Dec 02, 2019
Michael Zezas: Optimism Over the U.S.-EU Auto Tariffs?
00:01:54

On today's episode, With a key deadline for U.S. tariffs on EU autos now past, could European stocks outperform in 2020? Head of Public Policy Michael Zezas shares some analysis.

Nov 27, 2019
Mike Wilson: Global Reflation: To Be or Not to Be?
00:04:32

On this episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains why global reflation may be back—and could be a powerful longer-term theme for portfolio allocations.

Nov 25, 2019
Andrew Sheets: Commodities Outlook 2020: Too Much of Everything?
00:02:36

On this episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says oversupply may spell headwinds for commodities in 2020 but there are exceptions.

Nov 22, 2019
Michael Zezas: The 2020 Election: 4 Sectors to Watch
00:02:13

On this episode, Head of Public Policy Michael Zezas says performance in four key sectors could be a bellwether for how investors view the outcome of next year’s elections.

Nov 20, 2019
Andrew Sheets: As Global Growth Improves, What to Watch
00:03:20

On this episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says global growth should pick up in 2020, but unevenly. The key for investors will be identifying the right opportunities.

Nov 18, 2019
Andrew Sheets: Will Markets See End-of-Year Holiday Cheer?
00:02:46

On this episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets analyzes the historical phenomenon of the “end-of-year equities rally.” Will 2019 follow suit?

Nov 15, 2019
Michael Zezas: The Power of Unified Government
00:02:32

On this episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas says a potential boost to the U.S. economy has less to do with political parties than it does a unified policy vision.

Nov 13, 2019
Mike Wilson: The Return of the Secular Bull Market?
00:03:56

On this episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson shares three reasons why equities markets have rallied over the past few months… and where they could go from here.

Nov 11, 2019
Andrew Sheets: A Tough Road Ahead for the 60/40 Portfolio?
00:03:42

On this episode, Chief-Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets continues his discussion on the 10-year outlook for the U.S. and Europe—and identifies the challenges ahead.

Nov 08, 2019
Michael Zezas: The 2020 Election Outlook for Investors
00:02:23

On this episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas says one thing has become clear as we approach 2020: Investors need to plan today for market reactions next year.

Nov 07, 2019
Special Episode: Weighing a Global Growth Recovery
00:02:32

On this episode, special guest Chetan Ahya, the firm’s Chief Global Economist, says a global growth recovery could be possible in 2020… assuming two key forces align.

Nov 07, 2019
Mike Wilson: Amid New Highs, Uncertainty Remains
00:03:45

On this episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says the jury may be out on whether we’re at a trough for the U.S. economy, but two international markets may hold promise for investors.

Nov 04, 2019
Andrew Sheets: The Cost of Easy Policy: A 10 Year Outlook
00:03:29

On today's episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets takes a look at expected market returns over the next decade and explains how current policy affects future returns.

Nov 01, 2019
Michael Zezas: How Do Markets View Major Policy Proposals? (Replay)
00:02:02

On today's episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas takes a look at transformative policy proposals by 2020 Presidential candidates. How could big policies like Medicare-for-All reshape markets?

Oct 30, 2019
Mike Wilson: Are U.S. Equities Defying Gravity?
00:03:28

On today’s episode, a curious paradox: Although major indices are making new highs, many defensive stocks are leading the pack. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains why.

Oct 28, 2019
Andrew Sheets: Can Sentiment Alone Drive Markets Higher?
00:03:10

On today's episode, Optimism in markets has risen significantly over the past three weeks. But Chief-Across Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets asks, “Is optimism enough?”

Oct 25, 2019
Michael Zezas: Could “Phase One” Be the Turning Point?
00:01:56

On this episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas explains why a global growth rebound could largely hinge on trade negotiations ahead of the December 15th tariffs.

Oct 23, 2019
Mike Wilson: 5 Pockets of Opportunity for Equities Investors
00:03:42

On today's episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says investors may want to steer clear of expensive growth stocks in favor of some defensive and cheaper-priced stocks.

Oct 21, 2019
Andrew Sheets: One Market We Feel Good About
00:02:42

On today’s episode, Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets highlights the one market in which the currency, government bonds and equities may all be solid defensive plays.

Oct 18, 2019
Michael Zezas: A “Durable Pause” on U.S.-China Trade Tensions?
00:02:04

On today’s episode, Head of Public Policy Michael Zezas says unlike prior tariff pauses, the “phase one” agreement could have durability. However, much uncertainty remains.

Oct 16, 2019
Mike Wilson: How Will the “Phase One” Trade Deal Impact Earnings?
00:03:48

On today's episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says the U.S.-China trade deal is a step in the right direction, but the real story is still the corporate profits outlook.

Oct 14, 2019
Andrew Sheets: Is the Dollar Losing It’s Safe Haven Status?
00:02:38

On today's episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains how three of the dollar’s most attractive qualities could be shifting right before our eyes.

Oct 11, 2019
Michael Zezas: The Key Variable in U.S.-China Trade Talks
00:02:01

On today's episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas says when it comes to trade, movement toward a meaningful compromise will likely come down to one fundamental variable.

Oct 09, 2019
Mike Wilson: An Unsatisfying Market for Bulls and Bears?
00:03:31

On today’s episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says both bulls and bears were likely a bit frustrated trying to trade last week's sell-off and rally. So what’s the next move for investors?

Oct 07, 2019
Andrew Sheets: The 3 Most Powerful Market Indicators?
00:03:04

On today's episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says despite the myriad models used to assess the direction of markets, three simple indicators may be the most valuable.

Oct 04, 2019
Michael Zezas: U.S.-China Trade: The Outlook for Fall
00:02:11

On today's episode, A number of trade-related events on the fall calendar could mean progress—or an escalation—on the trade impasse. Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas provides an overview.

Oct 02, 2019
Special Series: U.S. Housing Faces a Generational Turning Point
00:03:23

On this special episode, Equity Analyst Richard Hill examines the coming seismic shift for investors as Baby Boomers pass the housing baton to Millennials and Generation Z.

Oct 01, 2019
Mike Wilson: Are Markets Rethinking Pricey Growth Stocks?
00:03:10

On today’s episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains why markets may be having a change of heart on expensive—and sometimes unprofitable—growth stocks.

Sep 30, 2019
Andrew Sheets: A Tale of Two Oil Price Spikes
00:02:58

On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says oil prices tend to spike for two very different reasons and the distinction for investors is quite important.

Sep 27, 2019
Michael Zezas: How Do Markets View Major Policy Proposals?
00:01:57

On today's episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas takes a look at transformative policy proposals by 2020 Presidential candidates. How could big policies like Medicare-for-All reshape markets?

Sep 25, 2019
Special Series: Is NextGen Reinventing the Banking Experience?
00:04:34

On this special episode, Betsy Graseck, global head of banking research, explains how Millennials and Gen Z are reshaping the financial industry in their tech-savvy, mobile-first image.

Sep 24, 2019
Mike Wilson: Looking Toward Q3 Earnings
00:03:28

On today’s podcast, investors are watching for progress on trade and signs of future Fed policy. But according to Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson, it still comes down to Q3 earnings season.

Sep 23, 2019
Andrew Sheets: Are Lower Interest Rates Always Beneficial?
00:02:44

On today's episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says although lower interest rates help boost economic activity, the full impact is more complicated.

Sep 20, 2019
Michael Zezas: Investors Look for Progress on U.S-China Trade
00:02:45

On today’s podcast, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas says a potential improvement in some key U.S. economic indicators will need real progress on trade—not just headlines.

Sep 18, 2019
Special Series: Which Way is U.S. Spending Trending?
00:02:33

Which generations spend more: Boomers or Millennials/Gen Z? On this special episode, equity analyst Lauren Cassel takes a look at which sectors stand to gain in the years ahead.

Sep 17, 2019
Mike Wilson: Value Stocks Have Their Moment
00:03:10

On today’s podcast, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson dives into last week’s historic reversal between value and growth stocks. Can the value rally last?

Sep 16, 2019
Andrew Sheets: Is There a Downside to Cutting Interest Rates?
00:02:48

On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets asks the timely question, “If lower interest rates stimulate growth, why wouldn’t central banks lower them?”

Sep 13, 2019
Special Series: From Baby Boom to Youth Boom
00:04:20

Is America’s next heyday ahead? On this special episode, Chief U.S. Economist Ellen Zentner explains why America’s youth may be set to power U.S. GDP in the coming years.

Sep 10, 2019
Mike Wilson: Home on the Range Bound?
00:02:48

On today's podcast, Investors may be feeling some déjà vu as upbeat news on trade drives a new rally. Could markets break out this time or is another correction ahead? Analysis from Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson.

Sep 09, 2019
Andrew Sheets: What Happens When the Price Isn’t Right?
00:03:11

On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says as global growth weakens, investors tend to focus on the most desirable companies (which are already priced to perfection). So what does that mean for returns?

Sep 06, 2019
Michael Zezas: Pondering a World of Unresolved Trade Issues
00:01:43

On today’s podcast, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas takes a moment to consider the long-term effects regardless of whether or not the U.S. and China are unable to negotiate a meaningful trade arrangement.


Sep 04, 2019
Mike Wilson: New Data Sends Concerning Signs for U.S. Stocks
00:03:32

On today's podcast, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says a popular narrative forecasted a rebound for the second half of 2019. However, new data on lower U.S. factory activity could counter that expectation.

Sep 03, 2019
Andrew Sheets: Title: Can Central Banks Cure Market Woes?
00:03:15

On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets examines central bank actions to boost markets and the negative effects—intended or not—that these moves could have.

Aug 30, 2019
Michael Zezas: U.S.-China Trade and “The Prisoner’s Dilemma” (Replay)
00:02:14

On today’s episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas explains why a key principle of game theory could help investors navigate markets amid rising trade tensions.

Aug 28, 2019
Mike Wilson: On Recession Risks, Perspective Matters
00:03:05

On today’s podcast, would stock markets be full steam ahead with a healthy dose of Fed rate cuts or a lack of concerns over trade? Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson provides some much needed perspective on the rising risks of recession.

Aug 26, 2019
Andrew Sheets: All Hail the U.S. Consumer?
00:03:23

On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets dives into a key debate on the U.S. economy: How could the risk of recession be rising when consumer activity is so strong?

Aug 23, 2019
Michael Zezas: Time to Rethink Allocations?
00:02:07

On today’s podcast: Amid a bond rally and stock volatility, August has been quite a ride. How should investors think about their allocations? Analysis from Michael Zezas, Head of Public Policy and Municipal Strategy.

Aug 21, 2019
Mike Wilson: Back Next Week
00:00:06

Mike Wilson is off this week. Please check back Wednesday for more Thoughts on the Market. 

Aug 19, 2019
Andrew Sheets: The Yield Curve Inverts for a Reason
00:03:13

On today’s podcast, Chief Across-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets shares three takeaways from this week’s inversion of the yield curve, historically the signal of a possible recession.

Aug 16, 2019
Michael Zezas: The Story Behind Falling Bond Yields
00:02:06

On today’s podcast, Head of U.S. Public Policy and Municipal Strategy Michael Zezas explains how the challenges facing U.S. farmers can provide insight on the current bond market.

Aug 14, 2019
Mike Wilson: Navigating the Q3 Dog Days
00:03:08

On today’s podcast, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson identifies several catalysts that could drive increased Q3 volatility. Are markets still facing a correction this quarter?

Aug 12, 2019
Andrew Sheets: Can Central Banks Keep Up with Market Expectations?
00:03:09

On today’s podcast, Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets looks at how the expectations markets are placing on central banks, as much as the actions of the banks themselves, are affecting outcomes.

Aug 09, 2019
Michael Zezas: The Potential Impact of Lasting Tariffs
00:02:15

On this episode, Head of Public Policy Research Michael Zezas walks investors through the current impasse on U.S.-China trade. How might new tariffs heighten downside risks for the U.S. economy?

Aug 07, 2019
Mike Wilson: Markets Face a “Sell the News” Moment
00:03:57

On today’s podcast, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson asks whether the Fed rate cut and reemergence of trade tensions rattled markets or simply revealed the possibility of deteriorating fundamentals.

Aug 05, 2019
Andrew Sheets: The Fed’s Great Expectations Quandary
00:03:32

On today's podcast, Markets met the Fed rate cut with a collective shrug. Could investor expectations make it harder for the Fed to succeed? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets provides analysis.

Aug 02, 2019
Michael Zezas: Trade Uncertainty and Corporate Confidence
00:02:00

On today’s podcast, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas examines how continued trade policy uncertainty is weighing on corporate confidence and spending. Is a turning point ahead?

Jul 31, 2019
Mike Wilson: Will the Fed Surprise on a Rate Cut?
00:03:40

On today’s podcast, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson gauges the reaction to a potential Wednesday Fed rate cut. Have markets already priced in any rally?

Jul 29, 2019
Special: Access & Opportunity Preview
00:04:44

Morgan Stanley's Carla Harris talks with Charles Hudson, founder and Managing Partner at Precursor Ventures, a seed-stage investor bringing an institutional perspective to startups in the earliest stages of their development.

Jul 26, 2019
Michael Zezas: The Fed Rate Cut Debate for Bond Investors
00:02:45

On today’s podcast, Head of Public Policy and Municipal Strategy Michael Zezas considers the debate between the consensus view of a potential 25 basis point Fed rate cut vs a 50 basis point cut.

Jul 24, 2019
Mike Wilson: Weighing a Potential Fed Rate Cut
00:03:48

On today’s podcast, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says what matters for markets now isn't how much the Fed or other central banks could cut—but why they would cut.

Jul 22, 2019
Andrew Sheets: 3 Consensus Views Worth Questioning
00:04:10

On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-asset Strategist Andrew Sheets digs into three key debates around central bank policy expectations, valuations and investor sentiment.

Jul 19, 2019
Michael Zezas: 2020 Election: How Likely Is Medicare-for-All?
00:02:11

On today’s podcast, Head of U.S. Public Policy research Michael Zezas asks “Would a Democratic presidential win mean the end of the road for private health care insurance?

Jul 17, 2019
Mike Wilson: For the S&P 500, Breaking Out Is Hard to Do
00:04:07

On today’s podcast, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says a sustained breakout above 3,000 has eluded the S&P 500. Will the Fed’s potential rate cut be the catalyst?

Jul 15, 2019
Andrew Sheets: A Second (and Third) Opinion for Equity Markets
00:04:14

On this episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets examines the models for stock performance, and how they are all leading to a similar conclusion. 

Jul 12, 2019
Michael Zezas: Healthcare Reform - Here We Go Again?
00:02:42

On today’s podcast, as the 2020 Election nears, healthcare reform is a central debate once again. Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas shares potential outcomes for patients—and investors.

Jul 10, 2019
Mike Wilson: 3 Summer Surprises Investors Could Be Missing
00:03:21

On today’s podcast, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says markets are typically savvy on how and when to price news events. But are markets overlooking some potential bad news?

Jul 08, 2019
Andrew Sheets: A Narrow Path
00:03:32

On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says that while conditions could line up for market success, the variables that need to align are many and diverse.  

Jul 05, 2019
Michael Zezas: How Markets View the Pause on Trade Tariffs
00:02:39

On today’s podcast, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas says a pause on trade tariffs should be good news for markets and growth, but is the path forward any clearer?

Jul 03, 2019
Mike Wilson: A G20 Trade Truce?
00:03:49

On today’s podcast, markets are cheering this weekend’s pause on U.S.-China trade tensions. But is the potential progress enough to extend the longest business cycle in history?

Jul 01, 2019
Andrew Sheets: What to Watch from the G20
00:03:45

On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets shares three possible trade outcomes from the G20—and how markets may react to a pause on new tariffs.

Jun 28, 2019
Michael Zezas: Indirect Impacts
00:03:32

In today’s podcast, Head of U.S. Public Policy strategy Michael Zezas discusses how the great debate playing out in markets around trade is about more than direct impacts.

Jun 26, 2019
Mike Wilson: Are Markets Putting Stock in Trade?
00:03:25

With corporate confidence softening, could movement on U.S.-China trade at the G20 be the catalyst for growth in the second half of the year? Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson has analysis.

Jun 24, 2019
Andrew Sheets: Let’s Say the Fed Cuts Rates in July…
00:03:45

Morgan Stanley's economics team now expects the Fed to cut interest rates by half a percent possibly as soon as July. On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets examines how markets could react.

Jun 21, 2019
Michael Zezas: Three Possible Trade Paths from the G20
00:02:57

On today’s podcast, Head of U.S. Public Policy strategy Michael Zezas says three likely U.S.-China trade scenarios will come out of the G20. But a tariff pause might be the trickiest for investors.

Jun 19, 2019
Mike Wilson: How Confident Are U.S. Businesses in the Economy?
00:03:21

On today’s episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson shares a readout on the firm’s proprietary Business Conditions Index. Are the data softening more than investors realize?

Jun 17, 2019
Andrew Sheets: The Dangers of Cheering for Weaker Data
00:03:31

On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-asset Strategist Andrew Sheets provides a bit of historical perspective on the logic of rooting for weaker data and lower interest rates.

Jun 14, 2019
Michael Zezas: Why ‘Slowbalization’ May Be Feeding Trade Tensions
00:03:13

Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas says that independent of current trade concerns, the trend toward globalized supply chains is fading, as companies respond both to political and market incentives.

Jun 12, 2019
Mike Wilson: Why Trade Tensions Are Only Part of the Story
00:03:27

Investors and media have been hyper-focused on trade and Fed policymaking. But according to Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson, some key economic data points are the real story to watch.

Jun 10, 2019
Andrew Sheets: For Markets, Signs, Signs, Everywhere Signs
00:03:29

On today’s podcast, Chief Cross-asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says that while discussion of a Fed rate cut may have helped markets rebound, several longer-term signals are troubling.

Jun 07, 2019
Michael Zezas: U.S.-Mexico Trade Adds to Recession Risks
00:02:00

On today’s episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas says further escalation of trade tensions could come with a cost. Are the risks of a global recession increasing?

Jun 05, 2019
Mike Wilson: U.S. Equities: How Much Correction is Ahead?
00:03:37

On today’s TOTM, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says trade tensions may be rattling markets, but the fundamentals are the real culprit behind the correction. So where are equities headed next?

Jun 03, 2019
Andrew Sheets: Fed to the Rescue? Maybe Not.
00:03:37

On today’s podcast, Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets examines the notion that the Fed stands willing and able to reduce interest rates and support markets.

May 31, 2019
Michael Zezas: U.S.-China Trade and “The Prisoner’s Dilemma”
00:02:15

On today’s episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas explains why a key principle of game theory could help investors navigate markets amid rising trade tensions.

May 29, 2019
Mike Wilson: Are U.S. Economic Indicators Flashing Yellow?
00:03:28

On today’s podcast, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says although some investors may assume recent equities volatility is based on trade worries, some key data points may be the real culprit.

May 27, 2019
Thoughts On The Market Podcast Trailer
00:00:36

A quick preview of what you'll hear on the Thoughts On The Market podcast, which features short, thoughtful and regular takes on recent events in the markets from a variety of perspectives and voices within Morgan Stanley.

May 26, 2019