Bloomberg Surveillance

By Bloomberg Radio

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Michael
 Jan 8, 2020
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Description

Tom Keene, Jon Ferro, and Paul Sweeney have the economy and the markets "under surveillance" as they cover the latest in finance, economics and investment, and talk with the leading voices shaping the conversation around world markets.

Episode Date
Surveillance: Tariff Rollback Unlikely, Kudlow Says
2604
Jeffrey Rosenberg, Senior Portfolio Manager on BlackRock's Systematic Fixed Income Team, believes it will be a long time before consumer behavior and confidence is restored in the U.S. Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist, says a strong social safety net will keep a coronavirus recession from becoming a depression. Larry Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, says he does not expect to see any movements in regards to tariffs right now. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Chief Oil Analyst, says no amount of oil supply cut will take care of the demand losses.
Apr 03, 2020
Surveillance: Historic Jobless Claims With Gapen
1767
Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets, says the end of March market rally was due to a positive reaction out of Washington. Jason Furman, Harvard University professor and Former Obama Economic Advisor, says there will be very high unemployment for the rest of this year and next year. Michael Gapen, Barclays Chief U.S. Economist, says March jobs report is already old news; jobless claims data is the most important information we have. Jonathan Miller, Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants, details how the housing market is dealing with fallout from the coronavirus.
Apr 02, 2020
Surveillance: Post-Virus Recovery with Dudley
2175
Olivier Blanchard, Peterson Institute Senior Fellow, says getting the infection rate down is an absolute priority. Bill Dudley, Former New York Fed President, says the post-pandemic economic recovery will not be as powerful as hoped because of higher debt burdens. Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs Advisory Director & Senior Investment Strategist, says that U.S. monetary and fiscal policy is moving in the right direction. Michael Shaoul, Marketfield Asset Management Chairman & Portfolio Manager, says there is nothing normal about where markets are today. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman, breaks down his interview with Former U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis.
Apr 01, 2020
Surveillance: Virus Impact on Americans With Gallup's Younis
2397
Carmen Reinhart, Harvard Kennedy School Professor of the International Finance System, says the coronavirus, Saudi-Russia oil war, and risk of debt defaults have created a perfect storm for emerging markets. Mohamed Younis, Gallup Editor in Chief, reports that 52% of working Americans say their financial situation has already been affected by the coronavirus. Oliver Chen, Cowen Senior Equity Research Analyst, says the speed and viability of consumer spending post-crisis will be challenging. Shahab Jalinoos Credit Suisse Head of FX and Macro Trading Strategy, expects dollar strength to be relatively short-term. Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives Founder & President, says the effectiveness of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures will determine if businesses can stay open and restart operations.
Mar 31, 2020
Surveillance: Fed's Balance Sheet With Bullard
2643
Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Global Head of Commodities & Derivatives Research, expects to see the steepest decline in global oil consumption before the summer. James Bullard, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President, says the Fed has capacity to carry 10% more debt. Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist and Managing Director of Global Research, says he wouldn't be surprised to see more Fed action. Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President, says the United States will become less dependent on single supply sources in the future as a result of the coronavirus. Sebastien Galy, Nordea Bank Senior Macro Strategist, believes the Fed will continue to surprise and adapt to this brutal situation.
Mar 30, 2020
Surveillance: Fed's Virus Response With Kaplan & Bostic
2826
Catherine Mann, Citi Global Chief Economist, says there will be no second half rebound in 2020 if businesses that do not borrow bonds go bankrupt. Robert Kaplan, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President, sees a substantial contraction in the second quarter, but says the economy will get stronger heading into 2021. Raphael Bostic, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President, says the economy may rebound quite robustly once the public health crisis is under control. Darrell Cronk, Wells Fargo Wealth & Investment Management CIO, says it is still a good idea to remain defensive on stocks. Dr. Krutika Kuppalli, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security Fellow and Infectious Disease Physician, says there will be a resurgence in the number of coronavirus cases if businesses open too soon.
Mar 27, 2020
Surveillance: Record Jobless Claims with Porcelli
1818
David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, says the economy should be held in suspended animation until coronavirus is under control. Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, says this is just the beginning of jobless claims being elevated. Leslie Vinjamuri, Chatham House Head of U.S. and Americas Programme, says the Senate's $2 trillion stimulus package is extraordinary but the cause of the coronavirus pandemic must still be dealt with. Karen G. Mills, Former Head of the U.S. Small Business Administration, estimates more than half of the 3.3 million U.S. jobs lost were from small businesses.
Mar 26, 2020
Surveillance: Coronavirus Response With Rajan
2266
Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, believes we are entering a steep recession with tremendous policy response to follow. Raghuram Rajan, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Professor and former RBI Governor, discusses what India needs to do to combat the coronavirus crisis as the country locks down its population of 1.3 billion people. Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Founder & Chief Economist, says we don't know the state of the economy of any major country in the world right now. Pavlina Tcherneva, Bard College Associate Professor of Economics, says the U.S. fiscal stimulus plan's focus on income support is the right thing to do. Jared Bernstein, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Senior Fellow, says state fiscal relief is an essential missing part of congress's coronavirus stimulus package.
Mar 25, 2020
Surveillance: Expect More Virus Cases, Rasmussen Says
2186
Julian Emanuel, BTIG Chief Equity & Derivatives Strategist, says sellers are exhausted and a bottoming process is starting. Angela Rasmussen, Columbia University Virologist, says opening back up parts of the U.S. economy is a bad idea without further virus testing. Randall Kroszner, Former Federal Reserve Board Member, says the Fed's actions have been crucial in avoiding a financial crisis so far. Bob Crandall, Former AMR Corp. President, CEO & Chairman, says the government needs to make a public investment in the airline industry in order to keep it functional. Leland Miller, China Beige Book CEO, says the idea of a full economic recovery any time soon is nonsense.
Mar 24, 2020
Surveillance: Congress Must Act Now, Swonk Says
1593
Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank Global Head of Economic Research, says there is no question that the economy is going into free-fall in the near term. Mike Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, says the Fed is starting to get some traction as the central bank announces a massive second wave of initiatives to support the U.S. economy. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, says congress must act now to help all sides of the economy. Ben Laidler, Tower Hudson Research CEO, expects a lot more pain for the financials.
Mar 23, 2020
Surveillance: U.S. GDP to Drop 12% in 2Q, BofA Says
1702
Steve Wieting, Citi Private Bank Global Chief Investment Strategist, says this is a bad time to sell investments. Patrick Armstrong, Plurimi Wealth CIO, says earnings are going to be decimated for a lot of industries in Q2. Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Global Head of Commodities & Derivatives Research, says the hardest part of this crisis is not knowing the demand growth we'll get in Q2. Michelle Meyer, Bank of America Head of U.S. Economics predicts U.S. GDP will drop 12% in the second quarter.
Mar 20, 2020
Surveillance: Time for Governments to Try MMT?
1727
Jack Ablin, Cresset Wealth Advisors CIO & Founding Partner, explains why Modern Monetary Theory could be part of the fiscal and monetary policy response to the coronavirus crisis. Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of U.S. Rates Strategy, says I've never seen this kind of volatility in the treasury market. Nathan Sheets, PGIM Fixed Income Economist and Macroeconomic Research, says we should expect over one trillion dollars in fiscal stimulus within the next ten days. Sam Stovall, CFRA Chief Investment Strategist, says the Fed could reopen its arsenal activities used to combat the financial crisis of 2008.
Mar 20, 2020
Surveillance: The Fed Needs Fiscal Help, Dudley Says
1662
Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, says signs are showing that a bottoming process has begun in stocks. Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Former New York Fed President, says the Fed can do very little about the initial demand shock from the coronavirus. Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Economics Chief U.S. Economist, says the Fed is taking market stabilizing measures, but not looking to stimulate the economy. Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist & Head of Macro Strategy, says the coronavirus has been a shock that has slowed down the U.S. consumer.
Mar 17, 2020
Surveillance: We're Headed For a Recession, Wilson Says
1698
Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says the Euro is currently giving misleading signs. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says we are headed for a global recession. Gershon Distenfeld, AB Co-Head of Fixed Income, says fear is taking over and in certain industries the economy is already shutting down. Randy Kroszner Former Fed Board Governor, says the fed is trying to get ahead of the curve.
Mar 16, 2020
Surveillance: We Are Likely In A Recession, Shilling Says
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Julian Emanuel, BTIG Chief Equity & Derivatives Strategist, says the single most important thing that we could see as a sign of backstopping confidence in the financial markets right now would be a meeting between President Trump and Speaker Pelosi and Senator Schumer. Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, says the market sell-off is sheer panic. Christian Schulz, Citi Economics Team Director, discusses the need to "socialize losses" as central banks and governments combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus. Gary Shilling, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & A. Gary Shilling & Co. President, says we are probably in a recession already. Marcus Ashworth, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says the world is looking at the U.S. to do something big and soon.
Mar 12, 2020
Surveillance: Central Bank Stimulus With Blanchflower
2081
Rupert Harrison, BlackRock Multi-Asset Strategies Portfolio Manager, says the U.K. is going to do everything possible to avoid permanent economic damage from coronavirus disruption. David Blanchflower, Former BOE Policy Committee Member and Dartmouth College Professor, questions the ECB's ability to coordinate with other governments. Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates Chairman & CEO, says collapsing oil prices are a benefit for the real economy. Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, predicts flat earnings growth for 2020. Megan Greene, Harvard Kennedy Senior Fellow, says the ECB is likely to cut rates, but that cutting rates is unlikely to help much.
Mar 11, 2020
Surveillance: Oil Price War With Yergin
2289
Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says the correction we're going through now is just a continuation of the correction that began two years ago. Dan Yergin, IHS Markit Vice Chairman, says there is a grudge match going on between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Philipp Hildebrand, BlackRock Vice Chairman & Steven Major, HSBC Fixed Income Research Managing Director, discuss the low interest rate environment. Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Group Head of Research Strategy, says Chinese leadership is more concerned about containing the coronavirus outbreak than getting the economy back up to speed. Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of U.S. Rates Strategy, says the bond market is pricing a zero rate interest policy.
Mar 10, 2020
Surveillance: Market Plunge With El-Erian
3089
Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz Chief Economic Adviser & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, foresees a "whatever it takes" approach for central banks. Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Global Head of Commodities & Derivatives Research, says brent oil could dip into the $20s. John Wraith, UBS Head of U.K. Rates Strategy, says the markets are anticipating rates getting close to zero. Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, says panicked behavior creates opportunity for investors. Luke Kawa, Bloomberg Corss-Asset Reporter, discusses volatility in the U.S. 10-year yield.
Mar 09, 2020
Surveillance: Growth Is Likely To Slow, Kudlow Says
2403
Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO US Economist, says growth shock can lead to market panic. Farley Cleghorn, Palladium Health Director, discusses the issues surrounding testing for the coronavirus. Jeff Rosenberg, Senior Portfolio Manager on BlackRock's Systematic Fixed Income Team, says payroll report shows the strength of the economy going into the virus shock. Lawrence Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, says growth is likely to slow, but the virus impact will be temporary.
Mar 06, 2020
Surveillance: Markets Negative For A While, Ward Says
2572
Howard Ward, Gabelli Funds CIO of Growth Equities, says we may reach new lows if earnings go negative. Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs Global Head of Commodities Research, says oil price correction may have run its course. Jim Bianco, Bianco Research and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, talks rates and when he thinks the market will get to zero. Jean Claude Trichet, Former ECB President, says a coordinated interest-rate cut this week could have induced panic and wasn’t warranted. Tim Ryan, PwC U.S. Chairman and Senior Partner, says the coronavirus is a great example of how CEOs have to be prepared for anything.
Mar 05, 2020
Surveillance: Get Used To Low U.S. Yields, Caron Says
2233
Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Fixed-Income Portfolio Manager, says we should start getting used to lower yields in the U.S. Howard Dean, Former DNC Chair & Former Governor of Vermont, is incredibly disturbed by the low turnout among younger voters. Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives President & Founder, says the Fed is running out ammo and fiscal policymakers will need to pick up the ball. Jared Bernstein, Center on Budget and Policy Senior Fellow, says the U.S. Economy will likely be growing well below trend by the time people vote for U.S. President. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Host of Bloomberg's Peer to Peer Conversations, reflects on his conversation with Yasir Al-Rumayyan, Governor of Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund who predicts the fund will grow to $2 trillion by 2030.
Mar 04, 2020
Surveillance: 2020 Is The Year Of Virus, Kelly Says
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David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, says we are only in the early chapters of what the coronavirus could mean for the global economy. Chris Verrone, Strategas Partner & Head of Technical & Macro Strategy, says conditions are in place for a tradable low. Mohamed Younis, Gallup Poll Editor in Chief, says 63 percent of Americans agree with the way President Trump is running the economy. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, says rate cuts won't be enough to cure the coronavirus crisis.
Mar 03, 2020
Surveillance: Health of Financial System With Weinberg
1454
Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist & Managing Director discusses the health of the financial system as the coronavirus continues to cloud the outlook for global growth. Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Advisory Founder says presidential candidate Joe Biden can beat President Trump. Michael Shaoul, Marketfield Asset Management, says the bond market is just as prone to stresses as other parts of the market. Jennifer Rohn, UCL Micro Biologist, says washing hands more important than wearing face mask to protect against coronavirus.
Mar 02, 2020
Surveillance: Fed Needs To Act Soon, Darda Says
1742
Mike Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, says central banks, by doing nothing, are actually allowing financial conditions to tighten. Bob Michele, JPMorgan AM CIO and Head of Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities, says to expect central rate cuts across the globe. Steve Wieting, Citi Private Bank Global Chief Investment Strategist, says fiscal easing is needed to avoid damaging economic potential in times of crisis. Erik Nielsen, Unicredit Group Chief Economist, says there is little monetary policy can do to offset a supply shock. Jim Bianco, Bianco Research President and Macro Strategist, says the coronavirus might be a bigger deal than the financial crisis.
Feb 28, 2020
Surveillance: Correction Has Room To Go, Rochester Says
1677
Jordan Rochester, Nomura G-10 FX Strategist, says markets are not used to a supply shock of the magnitude caused by the ecoronavirus. Dr. Adam Bernheim, Mount Sinai Hospital Cardiothoracic Radiologist, explains how lung scans could lead to quicker detection and diagnosis of coronavirus. Patrick Armstrong, Plurimi Wealth CIO, thinks the bond rally has probably gone too far. Shannon Cross, Cross Research co-founder, shares her outlook for tech as more companies issue profit warnings fueled by coronavirus concerns.
Feb 27, 2020
Surveillance: V-Shaped Recovery Is Nonsense, Roubini Says
2429
Greg Boutle BNP Paribas U.S. Head of Equity and Derivative Strategy, expects a lot more market volatility from here. Jean-Sébastien Jacques, Rio Tinto CEO, says the company is prepared for uncertainty from the coronavirus. Jimmy Whitworth, professor of international public health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, warns of the potential impact of the coronavirus on sub-Saharan Africa. Nouriel Roubini, NYU Stern School of Business Professor and Roubini Macro Associates Chairman, says markets are delusional about the coronavirus's impact on the global economy. Jeanne Zaino, Iona College Political Science Professor and Bloomberg Political Contributor, says the Democratic primary process does not work to the benefit of the Democratic party. Michael Nathanson, Moffettnathanson Senior Research Analyst, says Bob Chapek was the natural choice to replace Bob Iger as Disney CEO.
Feb 26, 2020
Surveillance: U.S. Equities In Good Shape, Laidler Says
1823
Ben Laidler, Tower Hudson Research CEO, thinks U.S. equities are in much better shape than many people think they are. Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist, thinks the Fed could be close to the point of taking action on the coronavirus. Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, says market uncertainty makes in almost impossible to take a three-year view. Dr. Peter Hotez, Baylor College of Medicine Dean, breaks down the most recent efforts to combat the coronavirus. Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg Chief Washington Correspondent, says tonight's debate is most critical for Joe Biden.
Feb 25, 2020
Surveillance: Market Sell-Off With Matus
3251
Drew Matus, MetLife Investment Management Chief Market Strategist, says 2021 is when we really have to start thinking about there being a recession in the U.S. Todd Mariano, Eurasia Group U.S. Director, says there is a sense among campaign strategists that it may be too late for other candidates to catch up to Bernie Sanders. Selina Wang, Bloomberg China Correspondent, says the rate of new coronavirus cases in Hubei province seem to be stabilizing. Stuart Kaiser, UBS Head of Equity Derivatives Research, says the VIX at 25 or 30 would suggest "indiscriminate hedging." Kristina Hooper, Invesco Chief Global Market Strategist, says the Fed must be measured and thoughtful in its response to coronavirus risks.
Feb 24, 2020
Surveillance: Markets Not Pricing Risk, Coronado Says
2636
Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives President & Founder, says there is a lot of complacency in market pricing right now. David Lebovitz, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, says the big tech names have been keeping the rest of the tech sector afloat. Jonathan Fenby TS Lombard Chairman of China Research, says the coronavirus outbreak is a big test for the leadership in China. Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO Market Strategist and Portfolio Manager, says the global economy may hit stall speed because of the coronavirus. Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics & Policy Advisor, discusses his interview with ECB Board Member Philip Lane.
Feb 21, 2020
Surveillance: Democratic Debate with Howard Dean
2070
Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Advisory Founder, says the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is more muddled after the Nevada debate. Howard Dean, Former Democratic Presidential Candidate & Former DNC Chairman, thinks that all six candidates who participated in Nevada's debate still have a chance of winning the nomination. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg Finance Reporter, breaks down what we know Morgan Stanley's plan to buy E*Trade. Julian Emanuel, BTIG Chief Equity & Derivatives Strategist, says the public has become an engaged buyer of stocks. Brett Ryan, Deutsche Bank Senior U.S. Economist, says firms are reluctant to lay workers off because of the tight labor market. Michael Bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News.
Feb 20, 2020
Surveillance: Monetary Policy with Goolsbee
2152
Chuck Gabriel, Capital Alpha President, thinks we could know whether Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic presidential nominee by the end of March. Austan Goolsbee, University of Chicago Professor and Former Adviser to President Barack Obama, says conventional monetary policy matters less now than it ever has before. Stephen Roach, Yale Professor and Author, explains why the world economy may be headed for a "temporary recession." Sophie Huynh, Societe Generale Multi Asset Strategist, says gold is one of the best preferred protections for asset allocation. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Executive Chairman and Host of Peer to Peer Conversations discusses his interview with Charles Schwab.
Feb 19, 2020
Surveillance: Expect Others to Follow Apple, Campling Says
1586
David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, says U.S. GDP growth may slow to 1% or less in first quarter. Neil Campling, Mirabaud Securities Global Thematic Strategy Group Head of TMT Research, expects other companies to follow Apple in cutting their outlook. Elaine Kamarck, Brookings Senior Fellow in the Governance Studies, discusses which candidates she expects to have the momentum going into the Nevada Democratic debate. Michael Holland, Holland & Co. Chairman, says although he's mindful of the valuations in the big-cap names, he's not so concerned that he's a seller.
Feb 18, 2020
Surveillance: China's Economy in Jeopardy, Hotez Says
2237
Steve Wieting, Citi Private Bank Global Chief Investment Strategist, says this is an unlikely time for U.S. outperformance to wane. Dr. Peter Hotez, Baylor College of Medicine Dean, calls for international cooperation in combating the coronavirus. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, discusses the tension between the U.S. and China over the coronavirus and trade. Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank Chief Economist, says the labor market, including wages and job growth, is slowing down greatly. Jason Bordoff, Columbia Professor and former U.S. National Security Council and Director of Energy & Climate Change, says in his opinion, it’s an encouraging shift to see republicans recognizing climate change as a serious reality.
Feb 14, 2020
Surveillance: China Growth May Be Flat, Kasman Says
1904
Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist & Head of Global Research, says Chinese growth may be flat in the first quarter of 2020. Dr. Jennifer Rohn, University College London Micro Biologist, says the coronavirus is looking just as contagious as flu and just as lethal. Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley Chief Cross Asset Strategist, says we still have a global market recovery that is being delayed rather than derailed. Tavis McCourt, Raymond James Institutional Equity Strategist, says the coronavirus has upset market expectations in a way that is similar to the U.S.-China trade war.
Feb 13, 2020
Surveillance: Disputed Convention Possible, Valliere Says
2276
Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, says it is a little too early to write Joe Biden off. Kate Moore, Head of Thematic Strategy for BlackRock's Global Allocation Investment Team, says the majority of returns from the equity market has to come from earnings. James Bevan, CCLA Investment Management Chief Investment Officer, says equity valuations are too low. Neil Shearing, Capital Economics Chief Economist, says we are still in a Goldilocks period of low but positive growth. Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity Chief Market Strategist, says the valuation of the market is fair and earnings are unclear.
Feb 12, 2020
Surveillance: Fed Needs To Be Flexible, Laidler Says
2395
Ben Laidler, Tower Hudson Research CEO, thinks valuations are very well supported for U.S. markets. Representative John Yarmuth, Democrat from Kentucky and Chairman of the Budget Committee, says Donald Trump is the biggest motivating factor for Democrats right now. Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Magazine Editor, says the Chinese threat to U.S. hegemony is a long term challenge rather than an immediate crisis. Stephen Stanley, Amherst Pierpont Chief Economist, doesn't see the Fed moving on rates anytime before the U.S. election. John Butler, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Telecoms Analyst, says the T-Mobile-Sprint deal will allow T-Mobile to move more aggressively on 5G.
Feb 11, 2020
Surveillance: Global Economy is Resilient, Stoltzfus Says
1825
John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist, says there is a remarkable resilience built into the global economy. Jared Bernstein, Senior Fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and Former Chief Economist and Economic Adviser to Vice President Joseph Biden, argues that Republicans want to get rid of safety net programs that bridge the gap between what people earn and what they actually need. Kit Juckes, Societe Generale Chief FX Strategist, does not see much that can prevent U.S. growth from slowing further. Sarah House, Wells Fargo Securities Senior Economist, says as the economy slowed over the past year, demand for labor has shifted downward.
Feb 10, 2020
Surveillance: Credit Suisse Chairman Should Resign, Herro Says
2154
David Herro, Harris Associates Chief Investment Officer, calls for Credit Suisse chairman Urs Rohner to resign. Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist, talks about jobs and salaries, and the recent income trend for people moving into prime of life. Elisa Martinuzzi, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says Credit Suisse's strategy will not take a turn under the new leadership of incoming CEO Thomas Gottstein. Lawrence Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, says the U.S. is engaged with China over export purchases.
Feb 07, 2020
Surveillance: Virus Causing Oil Shock, Says Goldman's Currie
2123
David Folkerts-Landau, Deutsche Bank Chief Economist, says there is no question that the movement away from the political center is infecting monetary and fiscal policy. Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs Global Head of Commodities Research, says the biggest impact from the coronavirus is coming from the quarantine. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, says Senator Romney will receive significant backlash for his conviction vote against President Trump. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says we are in a liquidity driven bull market and the market is being traded very defensively. Lanhee Chen, Hoover Institution Research Fellow and Policy Director for Mitt Romney's 2012 Presidential Campaign, reacts to Senator Mitt Romney's decision to vote to convict President Trump of abusing his power.
Feb 06, 2020
Surveillance: Eisman Ends Bet Against Tesla
2477
Steve Eisman, Eisman Group Neuberger Berman Senior Portfolio Manager, discusses the companies he is currently shorting. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, talks about parabolic moves, like the one in Tesla, reminding they almost always return to the point of breakout; also Kass explains why he thinks shares of Amazon will trade $5000 a share by 2023. John Hudak, Brookings Senior Fellow Governance Studies, hopes this is the end of the Iowa caucuses. Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Head of Global Commodities & Derivatives Research, says that the Fed cutting rates has created a huge tailwind for risk assets and commodities. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says moderate growth is the new normal for 2020.
Feb 05, 2020
Surveillance: Tesla Deserves Apple-Like Valuation, Munster Says
2107
Jens Nordvig, Exante Data Founder & CEO, says the drop in Chinese tourism as a result of the coronavirus will be a major hit to other countries' economies. Leslie Vinjamuri, Chatham House Head of U.S. & Americas Programme, says the delay in the Iowa Caucus could cast a shadow over the results. Michael Nathanson, Moffettnathanson Senior Research Analyst, says the cost inflection point may have come come for cord-cutting. Dr. Anthony Fauci Director of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, says the coronavirus looks increasingly like a pandemic. Gene Munster, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Loup Ventures, says Tesla deserves a valuation like Apple because it is a combination of hardware, software, and services.
Feb 04, 2020
Surveillance: Citi's Morse on Oil Downgrade
2406
John Ryding, Brean Capital Chief Economic Advisor, says the coronavirus is more of a supply shock than a demand shock outside of China. Miranda Carr, Haitong Securities Senior Analyst, says consumption might see a bigger hit from the coronavirus than manufacturing. Dr. Amesh Adalja, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Senior Scholar, expects the 2% fatality rate from the coronavirus to come down as we gain more patient data. Mickey Levy, Berenberg Capital Markets Chief Economist U.S., Americas & Asia, says China’s coronavirus is dampening effects on global trade and could postpone a widely anticipated pickup. Edward Morse, Citi Global Head of Commodities, discusses their latest cut in oil prices forecast.
Feb 03, 2020
Surveillance: Coronavirus With Eurasia Group's Sumpter
1899
Dr. Peter Hotez, Dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, says the coronavirus is just as capable of being transmitted as SARS, but it is not as lethal. Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Group Head of Research Strategy, details how China's political system is affecting its response to the coronavirus. Antony Phillipson, British Consul General to New York and Her Majesty's Trade Commissioner for North America, discusses next steps after the U.K. leaves the EU today. Margaret Patel, Wells Fargo Senior Portfolio Manager, says low inflation will be with us for the foreseeable future. Eileen Burbidge, Passion Capital Partner, says Amazon "absolutely" has more room to run from here.
Feb 03, 2020
Surveillance: Central Banks With Blanchflower & Kroszner
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David Blanchflower, Dartmouth College Economist and former BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member, says the Fed is now paying the consequences of its rate rises. Randall Kroszner, Former Fed Board Governor and University of Chicago Booth School Professor, says central banks not reaching their inflation goals is potentially raising questions about their credibility. Daniel Morris, BNP Paribas Senior Investment Strategist, says U.S. GDP Growth looks quite solid. Mark Mahaney, RBC Analyst, thinks that we have reached peak regulation in big tech.
Jan 30, 2020
Surveillance: Repo Response Not Fueling Market, Dudley Says
2592
Vincent Reinhart, BNY Mellon Asset Management Chief Economist says central banks do not create extra demand; they borrow it. William Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Former Fed President, discusses his latest column on the repo market. Austan Goolsbee, University of Chicago Booth School Professor and Former White House Economic Adviser to President Obama, says there are parts of the economy that are quite weak despite the unemployment rate being low. Dr. Jennifer Rohn, University College London Principal Research Associate, says there may be a delay of developing information surrounding the coronavirus coming from China. Dan Ives, Wedbush Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, says the IPhone 11 product cycle is much stronger than anyone could have anticipated, especially in China.
Jan 29, 2020
Surveillance: Can't Rely On Central Banks, El-Erian Says
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Gabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, says the market will bottom once the number of coronavirus infections stabilizes. Walter Piecyk, Lightshed Technology, Media & Telecom Analyst and Partner, says the valuation of Apple is at a new realm and premium. Stephen Pagliuca, Bain Capital Co-Chairman & Boston Celtics Co-Owner, reflects on the life and legacy of Kobe Bryant. Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz Chief Economic Adviser and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says we cannot rely on central banks to keep the whole game going. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup Global Markets Chief U.S. Economist, says there is so much uncertainty in the economy because of the coronavirus.
Jan 28, 2020
Surveillance: Market Sell-Off with Weinberg
2108
Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist and Managing Director, says the the Coronavirus uncertainty hit may be smaller than markets are currently pricing in. Thomas Mulier, Bloomberg Healthcare Editor, says China is trying to 'catch-up' to the Coronavirus outbreak, as new medical facilities are being built in Wuhan. Kit Juckes, Societe Generale Chief FX Strategist, says emerging markets are going to have a rough time if the U.S. economy is growing slowly. Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist, says investors are using the Coronavirus as an opportunity to cash in on profits. Jared Bernstein, Center on Budget & Policy Senior Fellow and former Chief Economist & Economic Adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, says the political middle in the U.S. has shifted from 10 years ago.
Jan 27, 2020
Surveillance: ECB Not On Autopilot, Lagarde Says
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Christine Lagarde, European Central Bank President, warns markets not to assume that ECB policy is on autopilot. Sheila Patel, Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chairman, says we are in a better place with liquidity compared to a year ago. Jacob Frenkel, JPMorgan Chase International Chairman, says the greatest danger to the economy's growth is fragmentation. Angel Gurria, OECD Secretary General, says we must now defend multilateralism. Stephen Pagliuca, Bain Capital Co-Chairman, says the returns in private equity are still world-class.
Jan 24, 2020
Surveillance: Don't Expect Much From Fed, Solomon Says
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Ken Moelis, Moelis & Company Chairman, CEO & Founder, says markets are pretty much priced for perfection right now. Soren Skou, Maersk CEO, doesn't expect trade growth to pick up in 2020. Mark Rutte, Dutch Prime Minister, is optimistic about a trade deal between the U.S. and the EU. Bill Winters, Standard Chartered CEO, says peace is prevailing in Hong Kong. Stacey Cunningham, NYSE President, talks about 'trading in the dark' as well as finding the best price in the market. David Solomon, Goldman Sachs Chairman & CEO, doesn't see any booms or busts happening anytime soon.
Jan 23, 2020
Surveillance: Davos Day 2
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Bruno Le Maire, French Finance Minister, says postponing a digital tax on the U.S. until the year's end is a fair compromise. Elaine Chao, U.S. Secretary of Transportation, says there is no timetable for returning the grounded Boeing 737 Max. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Co-Chairman, discusses changes in private equity. James Gorman, Morgan Stanley CEO, says we are in a very benign period with relative global stability. Scott Minerd, Guggenheim Global CIO, says the U.S. Federal Reserve is encouraging investor behavior that fuels a bubble in U.S. corporate credit markets. Bloomberg's Sonali Basak discusses major themes at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Jan 22, 2020
Surveillance: We Have Reached Peak Globalization, Bremmer Says
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Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group Founder, says we have absolutely reached the peak of globalization. Stephen Schwarzman, Blackstone CEO, says investing in technology has enormous benefits. Michael Corbat, Citigroup CEO, says the consumer remains the backbone of the U.S. Economy. Martin Flanagan, Invesco CEO, expects clients to return once the firm has fully absorbed OppenheimerFunds. Roberto Azevedo, World Trade Organization Director General says it is good to see U.S.-China tensions contained by the Phase-One trade deal.
Jan 21, 2020
Don't Underestimate The Fed, Hooper Says
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Julian Emanuel, BTIG Chief Equity & Derivatives Strategist, believes this could be the year the public fully engages with the U.S. equity market. Kristina Hooper, Invesco Chief Global Market Strategist, says we can't underestimate the power of the Fed. George Evans, CIO of Global Equities and Portfolio Manager for the Invesco Oppenheimer International Growth Fund, says emerging markets are led by commodities. Margaret Brennan, Face the Nation Host, reflects on the opening of President Trump's impeachment trial. Chris Whalen, Whalen Global Advisors Chairman, details 4 global banks that he says are not efficient at making money.
Jan 17, 2020
Surveillance: Record High Stocks With BNP's Morris
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David Pearl, Epoch Co-Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager, says Morgan Stanley is now the king of wealth management. Mary Lovely, Peterson Institute Senior Fellow & Syracuse University Professor, says escalation could happen very quickly under the Phase-One trade deal between the U.S. and China. Daniel Morris, BNP Paribas Senior Investment Strategist, says 2020 market risks aren't much different from those in 2019. Dana Peterson, Citi Global Economist, says department stores are losing market share to non-store retailers.
Jan 16, 2020
Surveillance: Banks Are Underpriced, Leon Says
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Ken Leon, CFRA Director Equity Research, says banks are underpriced relative to the market. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Managing Partner & Head of Economic Policy, says investors sense that President Trump cares specifically about the stock market. Megan Greene, Harvard Kennedy Senior Fellow, says there is plenty of evidence for low growth and inflation for years to come. Jim Paulsen, Leuthold Weeden Capital Management Chief Investment Strategist, expects small cap stocks to have a year of outperformance. Stephen Schork, Schork Group President, says we are concerned about the ongoing industrial recession in the U.S.
Jan 15, 2020
Surveillance: Bank Earnings With Tom Michaud
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Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Head of FX Macro Trading Strategy, says there are no macro risks affecting monetary policy. Tom Michaud, KBW CEO, breaks down results from JPMorgan and discusses the future of big U.S. banks. Geoffrey Yu, UBS Wealth Management Head of U.K. Investment Office, says central banks are going to stay lower for a very long time to come. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Investment Management Chief Strategist, says cyclical sectors are beginning to show signs of life, even as data remains soft.
Jan 14, 2020
Surveillance: Stimulus in the market through repo , Misra says
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Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President, believes the U.S. and Iran must agree to a reasonable deal in order to ease protester tensions. Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Rates Strategy, says the Fed has put a lot of stimulus in the system through the repo market. Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley Global Head of Banks & Diversified Finance Research says as banks report earnings we expect to see net interest margin under pressure in 4Q. Doug Holtz-Eakin, American Action Forum President & Former Director of the Congressional Budget Office says raising taxes and dodging the spending budget is bad news.
Jan 13, 2020
Surveillance: Everything In Place On China Deal, Kudlow Says
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Steven Cook, CFR Senior Fellow for Middle East And Africa Studies, says the U.S. is engaging in psychological warfare with Iran and not deescalating tensions with the region. Ellen Zenter, Morgan Stanley's Chief US Economist, says there is no indication businesses are broadly laying off workers. Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Professor and Former Fed Governor, says the fed is more likely to stay on hold. Lawrence Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, says everything is completely in place for the Phase One U.S.-China trade deal.
Jan 10, 2020
Surveillance: Slower Jobs Growth in 2020, Glassman Says
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Jim Glassman, JPMorgan Senior Economist, says 2020 will be the year we see slower job growth. Jeffrey Rosenberg, Senior Portfolio Manager on BlackRock's Systematic Fixed Income Team, says the economy has moved in tiny increments. Admiral James Stavridis, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander says Soleimani was a dangerous enemy of the U.S. and taking his skills away from the Iranian regime is a tactical plus. Brooke Sutherland, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, discusses the next steps for Boeing.
Jan 09, 2020
Surveillance: Iran Risk Has Gone Down, Eurasia's Rome Says
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Henry Rome, Eurasia Group Global Macro Analyst, says the risk of a major military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran has gone down. Robert Hormats, Kissinger Associates Vice Chairman, says the U.S. must now help stabilize the situation in Iraq. Greg Farrell, Bloomberg Legal Reporter, discusses next steps for Carlos Ghosn after press conference from Lebanon. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Executive Chairman, discusses his interview with Dangote Group Founder Aliko Dangote.
Jan 08, 2020
Surveillance: Growth Composition Is Improving, Dutta Says
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Adam Posen, Peterson Institute President, says there are very fundamental causes of low rates. Steven Cook, CFR Senior Fellow For Middle East And Africa Studies, says the U.S. can continue to fight terrorism without as large of a footprint in the Middle East. Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, says volatility stays low as prices advance. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Head of Economic Research, says the composition of growth is improving.
Jan 07, 2020
Surveillance: 2020 Is A Tipping Point, Eurasia's Bremmer Says
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Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President & Founder, says 2020 is a tipping point for the big global trends out there. Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Group Head of Research Strategy & Operations, says a trade conflict was expected between the U.S. and China year ago, but it was expected to be resolved. Henry Rome, Eurasia Group Iran Analyst, believes the killing of Qasem Soleimani will come to be seen as a miscalculation from the U.S. Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia Group Managing Director for Europe, says the EU doesn't have a great strategic answer for the U.K.'s exit. And Amy Myers Jaffe, CFR David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment & Director of the Program on Energy Security and Climate Change, offers her insight on recent events in the Middle East and energy.
Jan 06, 2020
Surveillance: Iran Has Capable Cruise Missiles, Stavridis Says
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Nick Wadhams, Bloomberg State Department Reporter, brings us an update on President Trump's strategy in the Middle East. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Chief Oil Analyst, says there will be a lot of pressure on Iraq to push out pro-U.S. forces. Marc Champion, Bloomberg News Senior Reporter for International Affairs, discusses Iran's sphere of influence. Admiral James Stavridis, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Former NATO Alliance Supreme Allied Commander, says the U.S. military is prepared for Iran's response. Mark Kimmitt, Former Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs, says President Trump is taking a risk with this latest foreign policy move. And Margaret Brennan, CBS Face the Nation Host, says the silence from the U.S. State Department was "deafening" last night.
Jan 03, 2020
Surveillance: 2020 To Be Year Of Reckoning, Albertson Says
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Robert Albertson, Sandler O'Neill Chief Investment Strategist, says 2020 will be a year of reckoning. Chris Bryant, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, provides an update on former Renault-Nissan Head Carlos Ghosn's escape from Japan to Lebanon. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Managing Partner & Head of Economic Policy, is not optimistic about Phase Two negotiations taking place in the near future. And Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University Professor, says the U.S. political system is broken.
Jan 02, 2020
Surveillance: No Recession in 2020, Emanuel Says
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John Ryding, Chief Economic Advisor to Brean Capital, says we are entering 2020 with no fear of a recession. Dana Khraiche, Bloomberg News, reports that Lebanese officials will help and support Carlos Ghosn, who is viewed as a national hero. Julian Emanuel, BTIG Chief Equity & Derivatives Strategist, says more public interest in stocks will drive bond yields higher in 2020. Alexandra Harris, Bloomberg Gov't Bonds & FX Reporter, analyzes how the Fed succeeded in thwarting major year-end turmoil in funding markets.
Dec 31, 2019
Surveillance: China's PMIs Showing Resilience, Haque Says
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Kona Haque, ED&F Man Head of Research, says China's government has to continue to apply stimulus to keep growth momentum ticking. Mike Gallagher, Continuum Economics Managing Director of Macro and Strategy, doesn't expect China to get a major lift from a trade truce. Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence U.S. Rates Strategist, details what to watch for in the next Fed minutes. Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst: U.S. Media, predicts that Netflix might become a victim of its own success.
Dec 30, 2019
Surveillance: Citi's Hollenhorst Weighs 2020 Risks
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Bloomberg's Paul Sweeney and Sonali Basak host today's show. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief U.S. Economist, discusses the transition to automation by urging the creation of new opportunities and engines of growth. Karen Leigh, Bloomberg News Greater China Government Editor, gives an update on the protests in Hong Kong as the region braces for more demonstrations in the new year. Kevin Book, Clearview Energy Partners Head of Research, says the trade war between the U.S. and China is far from over. And David Kirkpatrick, Techonomy Media CEO & Founder, provides a forecast for tech and government regulation in 2020.
Dec 27, 2019
Surveillance: Negative Rates with Mohamed El-Erian
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Michael Holland, Holland & Co. Chairman and Founder, thinks the Fed is far more important for markets than a U.S.-China trade deal. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO & Chief Research Officer, believes retailers will follow in Amazon's footsteps with one-day shipping. Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz Chief Economic Adviser and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says it is not up to central banks to get out of the negative rates experiment. Mike Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, says investors should be tactically cautious going into 2020. David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors Co-Founder & CIO, says negative interest rates are at a peak.
Dec 24, 2019
Surveillance: Boeing's Rough Year
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Catherine Mann, Citi Global Chief Economist, says the U.S.-China Phase 1 agreement looks similar to the deal proposed earlier this year in May. Kit Juckes, Societe Generale Chief FX Strategist, thinks the Chinese Yuan is as important as the Euro or the U.S. dollar now. George Ferguson, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Aerospace and Airline Analyst discusses the implications of Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg stepping down. Brooke Sutherland, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says Boeing is at serious risk of losing its competitive edge. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief U.S. Policy Strategist thinks that President Trump's 2017 tax cuts continue to fuel the market rally today.
Dec 23, 2019
Surveillance: The Future of Capitalism With Gideon Rose
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Dr. Randall Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Professor, says the Fed is going to gradually increase its balance sheet to provide liquidity. Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Magazine Editor, discusses the future of capitalism. Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg Chief Washington Correspondent, gives a briefing on the latest Democratic debate from Los Angeles. John Butler, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst of Telecoms, says he's surprised to see Apple is exploring satellites. And Margie Patel, Wells Fargo Wells Fargo Asset Management Senior Portfolio Manager, says China's growth is clearly slowing down.
Dec 20, 2019
Surveillance: Trump Has United Republicans, Valliere Says
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Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Head of FX and Macro Trading Strategy, observes rising interest rates across the Eurozone area. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, was surprised to see House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may delay next steps in the impeachment process. Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter Author, discusses his decision to retire his famous morning note. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President & Founder, calls in to ask a question to Gartman. And Margaret Franklin, CFA Institute CEO & President, says she still sees high demand for chartered holders.
Dec 19, 2019
Surveillance: Secular Forces Keeping Inflation Low, Mai Says
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Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank Securities Global Head of Economic Research, sees inflation remaining below 2% over the next year. Nicola Mai, PIMCO Portfolio Manager & Sovereign Credit Analyst, does not foresee significant increases in inflation next year. Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, says the idea of a recession is funny. And Emily Wilkins, Bloomberg Government Reporter, provides an update on where impeachment motions stand.
Dec 18, 2019
Surveillance: What Is China's Worst Nightmare With LSE's Jin
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Jerome Schneider, PIMCO Head of Short-Term Portfolio Management and Manager of the $14 Billion Cash Management Fund, PIMCO Mint, says we should expect volatility in repo rates. Keyu Jin, LSE Economics Professor, says there has been a divergence in business and consumer sentiment. Kallum Pickering, Berenberg Senior Economist, says the ECB does not have the firepower to start a recovery in Europe. And Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says it remains to be seen whether there is an appetite among Fed officials for a change in policy strategy. ------
Dec 17, 2019
Surveillance: Expect Easing Mid-2020, Misra Says
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Jens Nordvig, Exante Data Founder & CEO, says global growth is the most important variable for the dollar. David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, says rising trade tensions hurt the rest of the world more than the U.S. Priya Misra, TD Securities Managing Director & Global Head of Rates Strategy, expects the Fed to restart easing by mid-2020. And Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, says she could see further delays in trade talks between the U.S. and China.
Dec 16, 2019
Surveillance Special from Westminster Green
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Tom Keene and Jon Ferro broadcast a Surveillance Special on TV and Radio from the Westminster Green. Alan Wager, U.K. In a Changing Europe Researcher, says Boris Johnson now has to focus on uniting the U.K. after a landslide victory. Trevor Greetham, Royal London Asset Management Head of Multi-Asset, provides an outlook for sterling and gilts. Rosalind Mathieson, Bloomberg International Government Editor, predicts what Boris Johnson's new cabinet may look like. Ben Ritchie, Aberdeen Asset Management Senior Investment Manager, thinks U.K. bond yields have remained surprisingly low during the uncertainty of Brexit. And Maria Demertzis, Bruegel Deputy Director, thinks that the U.K. and the EU could reach a trade agreement in less than a year.
Dec 13, 2019
Surveillance: Lagarde's Optimistic Note For The Economy
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Steven Major, HSBC Global Head of Fixed Income Research, is taking any increase in yield as a buying opportunity. Frederik Ducrozet, Pictet Wealth Management Strategist, says the first action the ECB has to take next year is to ease. Ted Alden, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow, says he expects the U.S.-China trade deal to be delayed this week. Christine Lagarde, ECB President, says she sees signs of stabilization in euro zone. Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg News Head of Economics, reacts to the ECB press conference and President Trump's tweets on a nearing trade deal.
Dec 12, 2019
Surveillance: U.K.'s Tories Vs. Labour With Cavendish
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Roger Bootle, Capital Economics Founder & Chairman, says the U.K.'s Conservative Party has been inching toward the center of the political spectrum. Camilla Cavendish, Former Head of Policy for U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, says the Tories are aspiring to be the voice of the working class. Lale Topcuoglu, JOHCM Senior Fund Manager, says Chairman Powell has been very clear he does not see us at QE. Wendy J. Schiller, Brown University Chair of Political Science, discusses the history of impeachment in the House and Senate. And David Blanchflower, Author & Dartmouth Professor of Economics, says employment rates are still below where they were a decade ago.
Dec 11, 2019
Surveillance: Trichet On Negative Interest Rates
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Seema Shah, Principal Global Investors Chief Strategist, expects equities to rise next year, giving "vertigo" discomfort to investors. Jonathan Fenby, TS Lombard European Politics Managing Director & China Chairman, says the silence between the U.S. and China shows negotiations are very serious. Jean-Claude Trichet, Former President of the European Central Bank, says the positive effects of negative interest rates outweigh the negative. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says economic activity in the United States is still strong. Matt Winkler, Bloomberg Editor-In-Chief Emeritus, discusses his latest Bloomberg Opinion piece. And Emily Wilkins, Bloomberg Government Congressional Reporter, wraps the impeachment news of day.
Dec 10, 2019
Surveillance: Phase One Chances Are Slim, Says NABE's Hunter
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Alberto Gallo, Algebris Investments Head of Macro Strategies, says many global positive-yielding bonds could be zombies. Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist, sees an uptick in inflation expectations for 2020. Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs International Global Head of Commodities Research, says the U.S.-China trade war is exacerbating structural issues in the oil market, not causing them. And Constance Hunter, KPMG Chief Economist and NABE President, thinks the chances for a phase one trade deal are slim.
Dec 09, 2019
Surveillance Special: Paul Volcker's Legacy
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In this Surveillance Special, Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney remember the life and legacy of Paul Volcker, Former Chair of the Federal Reserve. We hear from Bloomberg's Bob Moon, Former SEC Chair Arthur Levitt, Bloomberg's Michael McKee, Grant Thornton's Diane Swonk and RDQ Economics' John Ryding.
Dec 09, 2019
Surveillance: America Is Working, NEC's Kudlow Says
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Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives President and Founder, says Europe does not have an engine of growth. Jim Glassman, JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking Head Economist, and Michael Collins, PGIM Fixed Income Senior Portfolio Manager, react to the massive jobs report surprise. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO U.S. Economist, says the United States economy and job creation is accelerating. And Larry Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, says the U.S. cannot permit unfair trading practices from our allies or non-allies.
Dec 06, 2019
Surveillance: The Unilateral Trade Road With CFR's Alden
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Roger Diwan, IHS Markit Vice President of Financial Services, says it is not clear how much ability other OPEC countries will have to follow Saudi Arabia's oil supply cuts. Luigi Zingales, University of Chicago Booth School Finance Professor, discusses the fundamental difference between climate change and climate risk for banking. Anat Admati, Stanford Finance Professor, says problems plaguing democracy and capitalism are rooted between corporations and governments. And Ted Alden, CFR Senior Fellow, says we have gone "far down" a unilateral trade road with this administration.
Dec 05, 2019
Surveillance: NATO Summit With Adm. Stavridis & Vinjamuri
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Savita Subramanian, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Head of U.S. Equity & Quantitative Strategy, thinks cyclicals could see a strong rally on a skinny trade deal. Leslie Vinjamuri, Chatham House Head of U.S. & Americas Programme, says the vast majority of Americans still want to be in NATO. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, thinks U.K.-EU trade talks could bring back a no-deal Brexit risk next year. James Stavridis, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says he is concerned about Turkey’s direction and their willingness to partner so closely with Russia in Syria. And Brian Wieser, Group M Global President of Business Intelligence, discusses the changing nature of ad breaks.
Dec 04, 2019
Surveillance: Anti-Tariff Pressure Strongest Ever, says Treyz
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Troy Gayeski, SkyBridge Capital Co-Chief Investment Officer, thinks the U.S. dollar has finally topped out. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, believes the pressure on the administration not to impose tariffs is stronger than it has ever been. Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter Editor and Publisher, shares memories of his iconic newsletter ahead of its planned last edition on Dec. 31. Margie Patel, Wells Fargo Asset Management Senior Portfolio Manager, thinks mid-single digit returns may be the best-case scenario for 2020.
Dec 03, 2019
Surveillance: The Retail Transformation with Cowen's Chen
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Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Founder & Chief Economist, doesn't see an end to the industrial recession as long as inventories are rising. Oliver Chen, Cowen Senior Equity Research Analyst, details research which suggests a niche area of apparel is growing double digits, despite weakness in the broad sector. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, says consumers are showing signs of weakness just as businesses are finally showing signs of life. Bill Smead, Smead Capital Chief Investment Officer & Founder, expects millennials to double their use of gasoline in the next 10 years. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg Finance Reporter, previews what's in store in the next decade for Goldman Sachs.
Dec 02, 2019
Surveillance: Macy's Needs To Amaze Again, Telsey Says
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John Authers, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says populist politicians have played their hands poorly in 2019. Joseph Abboud, Clothing Designer & Tailored Brands Creative Director, says Black Friday matters more for accessories and sportswear than custom suits. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO & Chief Research Officer, teases the item poised to become the “fashion must-have” of the 2019 holiday season! And Elaine Sciolino, Former NYT Correspondent & Author of “The Seine," details the famous river.
Nov 29, 2019
Surveillance: Negative Interest Rates With Kotok
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Greg Boutle, BNP Paribas U.S. Head of Equity and Derivative Strategy, expects U.S. manufacturing weakness to start broadening out to the rest of the economy. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief U.S. Economist, says the stock market gains are not experienced widely across the economy. David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors Chairman & CIO, says ECB's Christine Lagarde has a difficult task right now. And Karen Ubelhart, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst for Machinery, provides an industrial outlook for 2020.
Nov 27, 2019
Surveillance: LVMH's Tiffany & Co. Buy Is Win-Win, Sadove Says
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Brian Levitt, Invesco Global Market Strategist, says we are returning to an environment of more stable growth. Stephen Sadove, Senior Adviser for Mastercard and former Saks CEO, thinks LVMH buying Tiffany & Co. is a win-win. Sarah House, Wells Fargo Securities Senior Economist, foresees one more rate cut in their forecast. Adm. James Stavridis, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, discusses President Trump's recent decisions regarding the Navy SEALs. And Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence U.S. Media Analyst, says Disney's performance this year has been phenomenal. ------
Nov 26, 2019
Surveillance: Goldman's Currie Says Get Long Commodities
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Chris Marangi, Gabelli Funds Co-CIO, says the market is pivoting towards value from momentum. Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs International Global Head of Commodities Research, recommends getting long commodities today. Geoffrey Yu, UBS Private Banking CIO, says the dollar has topped out but it doesn't mean we're starting a dollar bear trend. Deborah Aitken, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst of Luxury Goods, sees the LVMH Tiffany tie-up as mutually beneficial for both companies, particularly when it comes to expanded market share in the luxury jewelry sector. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg TV & Radio Finance Reporter, says Charles Schwab aims to diversify their business in buying TD Ameritrade.
Nov 25, 2019
Surveillance: Beijing Will not Simply Yield to WH, says Hormats
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Luke Tilley, Wilmington Trust Chief Economist, is optimistic equities will see a positive impact from a looming Phase One deal. Robert Hormats, Kissinger Associates Vice-Chair, says after visiting China, he thinks the Chinese are committed to a tariff deal but adds Beijing will not yield to White House demands simply because its economy is slowing. Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities Managing Director of Equity Research, says Tesla's 'Cybertruck' may be dead on arrival when it hits the market in 2022. Margaret Brennan, Face the Nation Host, says many conversations surrounding President Trump's hearings don't seem to have been moved forward by this week's testimonies. Priya Misra, TD Securities Managing Director & Global Head of Rates Strategy, is worried that cracks in the consumer are beginning to appear.
Nov 22, 2019
Surveillance: The Foothills Of A Cold War With Baucus
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Laurence Boone, OECD Chief Economist, expects growth to remain stuck for the next two years due to trade uncertainty. Joe Quinlan, Head of CIO Market Strategy for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, says Europe is looking "less bad" as global markets continue to bottom out. Lale Topcuoglu, JOHCM (USA) Inc. Senior Fund Manager, believes there is no such thing as cash on the sidelines. Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist, says yields are not that attractive to take on duration risks. And Max Baucus, Former U.S. Ambassador to China, says President Xi is clearly nationalistic.
Nov 21, 2019
Surveillance: Value In International Stocks, Santos Says
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Gabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, says there is value in international stocks. Bill Dudley, Former New York Fed President, says contrary to the recent Fed report, he thinks there are two significant economic risks on the horizon. Todd Mariano, Eurasia Group U.S. Director, believes there is a veto-proof majority in support of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy bill. Megan Greene, Harvard Kennedy School Senior Fellow, says global growth will look better next year because emerging markets will be less squeezed. Dan Alpert, Westwood Capital Founding Managing Partner, says jobs numbers have been dented by the lack of government spending on infrastructure.
Nov 20, 2019
Surveillance: AT&T Downgraded To Sell With Moffett
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Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Fixed-Income Portfolio Manager, explains why interest rates are just one piece of the dollar puzzle. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Managing Partner & Director of Economic Policy Research, says she doesn't think the phase one trade deal will come. David Herro, Harris Associates CIO of International Equities, discusses his outlook on the U.S. economy, as well as his expectations for the S&P sectors. Gregory Zuckerman, author of "The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution," outlines the advantages of quantitative thought. And Craig Moffett, Moffettnathanson Founding Partner & Senior Research Analyst, explains his early morning bear call on AT&T.
Nov 19, 2019
Surveillance: Phase One Deal Will Be Cosmetic, Coronado Says
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Dan Ahn, BNP Paribas Chief U.S. Economist & Head of Markets 360 North America and Former U.S. Department of State Chief Economist, expects another round of insurance cuts from the Fed. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, says Saudi Aramco's $25 billion IPO is not just about capital for the company. Bloomberg's Anna Edwards sat down with Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn and he says his party have a 'good relationship' with BOE Governor Mark Carney. Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives President & Founder, says the issues that divide the U.S. and China are not easily resolved. And Georgette Boele, ABN Amro Senior FX & Previous Metals Strategist, says right now, investors are very long gold.
Nov 18, 2019
Surveillance: Global Growth Is Bottoming, Cantrill Says
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Howard Ward, Gabelli Funds CIO of Growth Equities, thinks it's time for the White House to "stop manipulating the market" when it comes to trade deal progress. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO Head of Public Policy, says uncertainty and tensions with China are not going away any time soon. Molly Smith, Bloomberg Corporate Finance Reporter, says this week's strong demand for Abbvie's bonds show there's a lot of confidence in the tie-up between Abbvie & Allergan. John Authers, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, details the deep economic links between China and emerging markets. And Lord Adair Turner, House of Lords & G-30 Member, says in terms of pensions, Sweden has made some sensible policies.
Nov 15, 2019
Surveillance: Infrastructure Investment Needed, Swonk Says
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Steven Wieting, Citi Private Bank Global Chief Investment Strategist, expects a new all-time high in profits next year. Mary Lovely, Peterson Institute Non-Resident Senior Fellow, says it will be wise for President Trump to make a deal with China. Nicola Mai, PIMCO Sovereign Credit Analyst, says it's very difficult for the ECB to raise inflation without help from the fiscal authorities. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, says what we really need for U.S. eco growth is infrastructure investment. And Sarah Halzack, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says Walmart's grocery division, which accounts for 56% of its U.S. sales, has an advantage over Amazon due to its infrastructure nationwide.
Nov 14, 2019
Surveillance: Pessimism Of Summer Reversed, Shaoul Says
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Michael Shaoul, Marketfield Asset Management Chairman, Portfolio Manager & CEO, thinks the deep market pessimism of the summer is returning to normal. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Chief Strategist, says cyclical sectors are beginning to show signs of life even as data remains somewhat soft. Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Advisory Founder, says the U.S. is ultimately pursuing for an "enforceable" deal with China. Karen Leigh, Bloomberg Greater China Government Editor, reports retail and travel have taken a hit in recent months in Hong Kong. And Chris Rupkey, Chief Financial Economist at MUFG Union Bank, says it sounds like President Trump is still taking a hard line on trade with China.
Nov 13, 2019
Surveillance: Outlook For Manufacturing Isn't Great, Amoa Says
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Diana Amoa, JPMorgan Asset Management Senior Portfolio Manager, says a lot of the concerns about global growth that were weighing on sentiment have been priced out of the market. Neil Shearing, Capital Economics Group Chief Economist, says we are in a new era of structurally weaker growth in emerging and developed markets. Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Head of Global Commodities & Derivatives Research, says America's energy boom has boosted U.S. immunity to the trade war with China. And Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence U.S. Media Analyst, says Disney+ is the linchpin for Disney's direct-to-consumer strategy.
Nov 12, 2019
Surveillance: Forward-Looking Data Is Up, Achuthan Says
2019
George Bory, Wells Fargo Securities Head of Fixed Income Research, says the current, positively-sloped U.S. yield curve is a good indicator for future economic growth. Yvonne Man, Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Anchor, says riot police are still in the streets in Hong Kong. Saira Malik, Nuveen Global Equities CIO, says China's economy will rebound if trade talks continue to make progress. Stephen Schork, Schork Group President, sees global oil demand peaking well before 2035. And Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI Co-Founder, says disruptive tech innovations can change the contour of the business cycle.
Nov 11, 2019
Surveillance: Risks Still Out There, Atlanta Fed's Bostic Says
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Stephen Stanley, Amherst Pierpont Securities Chief Economist, says that the bulk of the damage done to the U.S. economy is due to uncertainty from trade rather than tariffs themselves. Miranda Carr, Haitong International Senior Macro Strategist, says the trade war is hurting, but not destroying China’s economy. Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence Media Analyst, says Disney is firing on all cylinders with a 'streaming first' mentality. Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Federal Reserve President & CEO, says the Fed is 'slightly accommodative.'
Nov 08, 2019
Surveillance: Only So Much ECB Can Do, Rai Says
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Guy Johnson, Bloomberg Markets European Close Anchor, recaps the Bank of England's decision to leave rates unchanged. Max Kettner, HSBC Multi Asset Strategist, says if yields continue to spike, financial conditions will tighten. Bipan Rai, CIBC Capital Markets Senior Macro Strategist, says the trade risk between the U.S. & the EU is currently underappreciated by markets. Shira Ovide, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says Uber would benefit if it disclosed cash-in and cash-out figures. And Max Chafkin, Bloomberg Businessweek Columnist, discusses Sheryl Sandberg's comments on Facebook's anti-trust issues.
Nov 07, 2019
Surveillance: Tech Disruption Wasn't All Bad, Kirkpatrick Says
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Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, thinks it would take significant deterioration for the Fed to make additional cuts next year. David Kirkpatrick, Techonomy CEO & Founder, thinks that SoftBank's Masayoshi Son has positively contributed to the idea that digital technology can transform global economies. Geoff Yu, UBS Wealth Management Head of U.K. Investment Office, says the U.K. still has a long way to go before establishing its long-term relationship with the EU. And Esther Law, Amundi Asset Management Emerging Markets Debt Senior Investment Manager, says monetary policy on a global level has made EM look very attractive.
Nov 06, 2019
Surveillance Special: A Conversation With Chicago Fed's Evans
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Charles Evans, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President & CEO, sits down with Tom Keene at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. They discuss inflation expectations, negative rates, and where the Fed is headed.
Nov 06, 2019
Surveillance: We're De-Risking, Topcuoglu Says
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Brian Weinstein, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Head of Global Fixed Income, says that the promise of lower yields is driving people into equity markets. Phoenix Kalen, Societe Generale Director of EM Strategy, says China's slowdown has intricately impacted regions like Germany, exposing manufacturing troubles. Joseph Ricketts, TD Ameritrade Founder and Author of "The Harder You Work the Luckier You Get," says if the U.S. does not retain a free enterprise system, the country will be negatively impacted. And Lale Topcuoglu, JOHCM USA Senior Fund Manager, says there are sectors of the credit market that are greatly mispriced.
Nov 05, 2019
Surveillance: Surveillance: McDonald's In A Good Place, Says Senatore
1821
Mike Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, thinks the U.S. economic outlook has reached a "soft landing" point, as the consumer continues to carry the economy. Seema Shah, Principal Global Advisors Chief Strategist, says emerging markets are starting to look very attractive. Sara Senatore, Sanford Bernstein Senior Research Analyst, says McDonald's is still in a pretty good place despite firing their CEO. And Bloomberg's David Westin shares a clip of his interview with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Nov 04, 2019
Surveillance: We Are Not Late Cycle, Clarida Says
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Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist, expects to see business investment improve before the consumer cracks. Jeffrey Rosenberg, BlackRock Financial Senior Portfolio Manager, says a stronger than expected jobs report eases concerns of manufacturing uncertainty. Richard Clarida, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, says the economy is in the trend of range growth. And Lawrence Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, says phase one trade talks are not complete but are going well.
Nov 01, 2019
Surveillance: Both Parties See China As Rival, Eichengreen Says
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Frances Donald, Manulife Asset Management Head of Macroeconomic Strategy, says we have not experienced a period of such heightened trade tensions since the 1930s. Barry Eichengreen, University of California Berkeley Economics Professor, says if there is to be progress on trade with China, it will have to be incremental. Shannon Cross, Cross Research Co-Founder, says the entire tech-hardware industry is moving toward service models, centered around recurring payments from consumers. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, says U.S. voters are still concerned about the economy but less so than during the recession. And Demian Flowers, Commerzbank Automotive Analyst, says in order to profit from autos, overall manufacturing costs must go down.
Oct 31, 2019
Surveillance: Hawkish Cut a Mistake, says Crescenzi
1983
Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO Market Strategist and Portfolio Manager, says a hawkish cut is a mistake in this environment. David Kirkpatrick, Techonomy CEO & Founder, says Apple is an astonishingly resilient company. Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief U.S. Rates Strategist, says the Fed can sound more dovish than the market expects. And Therese Raphael, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says at the moment, this is Boris Johnson's election to lose.
Oct 30, 2019
Surveillance: Hawkish Cut From Fed, Luzzetti Expects
2055
Russ Koesterich, BlackRock Global Allocation Fund Portfolio Manager, says as long as the consumer continues to grow at its current pace, we can be "reasonably confident" we're not on the cusp of a recession. Peter Dixon, Commerzbank Global Equities Economist, says the European economy looks very sluggish compared to the United States. Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist, explains why Jerome Powell will orchestrate a hawkish cut tomorrow. Cheryl Miller, AutoNation CEO, says the majority of vehicles are purchased on credit and she feels good about the consumer. And Jennifer Bartashus, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst, says Beyond Meat is more like a technology company than a food one.
Oct 29, 2019
Surveillance: Tragic Irony To Brexit Debate, Kelly Says
2019
Michael Purves, Tallbacken Capital Advisors CEO, thinks that earnings season so far has been an important affirmation of what the bulls would like to see. Axel Christensen, BlackRock Chief Investment Strategist For Latin America, says Chile's President-elect Alberto Fernandez will have to negotiate deep structural changes in Argentina. Stephanie Kelly, Aberdeen Standard Senior Political Economist, says U.K. growth has been very weak relative to its potential. Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says that heading into third quarter earnings, investors were very bearish. And Sameer Samana, Wells Fargo Investment Institute Senior Global Market Strategist, says macro events like trade uncertainty and Brexit affect levels of volatility, but the market is primarily driven by the Fed.
Oct 28, 2019
Surveillance: Earnings Growth Not Significant, Levitt Says
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Brian Levitt, Invesco Global Market Strategist, thinks the market is looking for the next catalyst to push higher. James Athey, Aberdeen Standard Investments Senior Investment Manager, says the Brexit "purgatory" is suiting no one. Brett Bruen, Global Situation Room Director and Former Global Engagement Director in the Obama White House, says President Trump's decision to pull out of the Iran Nuclear Deal makes a deal with North Korea much less likely. Nela Richardson, Edward Jones Investment Strategist, says earnings growth will continue to slow but still sees "bright lights" when it comes to the consumer.
Oct 25, 2019
Surveillance: Mario Draghi's ECB Legacy
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Kate Moore, BlackRock Global Allocation Investment Team Head of Thematic Strategy, explains why we haven't seen the worst of it, despite some signs of life in third-quarter earnings. Jens Nordvig, Exante Data Founder & CEO, discusses Mario Draghi's legacy at the European Central Bank and the impact of a Lagarde presidency on the euro. Francesco Papadia, Former ECB Director General of Market Operations, explains why he thinks bank loans are the new asset the ECB is most likely to buy. Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell, Former ECB Executive Board Member, says that the negative effects of low interest rates are visible in the economy.
Oct 24, 2019
Surveillance: SoftBank's WeWork Rescue With Galloway
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Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Editor, says Trump would like to unwind U.S. commitments in the Middle East. Catherine Barnard, The U.K. in a Changing Europe Senior Fellow, says, "the ball is currently in the EU's court" after Boris Johnson begrudgingly has asked for an extension on Brexit. Wei Li, BlackRock Head of iShares EMEA Investment Strategy, says the low rate environment is contagious. Scott Galloway, NYU Stern Professor, thinks that Softbank's $9.5B WeWork rescue will go down as the costliest exercise in saving face in the history of the private markets. And Michael Nathanson, Moffettnathanson Senior Research Analyst, says we are heading towards a "race to the bottom" in a pivotal time for the media industry.
Oct 23, 2019
Surveillance: Trade War Takes Toll on Manufacturing, Swonk Says
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Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says about 80% of companies are beating expectations this Q3. Daniel Katzive, BNP Head of FX Strategy North America, says the immediate risk of a no-deal Brexit has been removed. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg News, says WeWork is gravitating towards SoftBank with the hopes it will be "more patient." Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, says the trade war has taken a toll on manufacturing activity. And Sara Senatore, Sanford C Bernstein Consumer Analyst, says McDonald's is doing well in developed economies.
Oct 22, 2019
Surveillance: Stay The Course, Kantor Says
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Edward Evans, Bloomberg Opinion Managing Editor, thinks that we are in for intense Parliamentary warfare over the next few days. Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Group Head of Research Strategy, thinks that Boris Johnson is within touching distance of getting the majority that he needs. Charles Kantor, Neuberger Berman Long Short Fund Senior Portfolio Manager, says there's no lack of worries in the global stock market. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says the manufacturing sector is weak. And Frank Bennack, Hearst Executive Vice Chairman & “Leave Something on the Table” Author, says distribution is "King Kong."
Oct 21, 2019
Surveillance: Breakup Of Euro Is A Bad Bet, Citi's Mann Says
2060
Catherine Mann, Citi Global Chief Economist, says anybody who is betting on the breakup of the euro is making a bad bet. Jacob Frenkel, JPMorgan Chase International Chairman, says monetary policy has been the only game in town and we are paying the price for it now. Mij Rahman, Eurasia Group Managing Director of Europe, says a hard Brexit remains a risk. Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank Securities Chief Economist, says the trade war between the U.S. and China appears to be escalating rather than diminishing. And John Hudak, Brookings Senior Fellow in Governance Studies, underlines the parallels between the current impeachment inquiry and Richard Nixon's in 1974.
Oct 18, 2019
Surveillance: Outcomes For Sterling With Rabobank's Foley
1640
Rosalind Mathieson, Bloomberg Executive Editor for International Government, says U.K. PM Boris Johnson still needs to win the backing of U.K. lawmakers for a Brexit deal. Huw Van Steenis, UBS Senior Adviser to CEO and Former Senior Adviser to BOE's Mark Carney, says it's "striking" Johnson was able to get the EU to back him. Jason Furman, Former White House Economic Adviser to Pres. Obama and current Harvard Kennedy School Professor, reflects on the accomplishments of the winners of the 2019 Nobel Prize in Economics. Mona Mahajan, Allianz Global Investors U.S. Investment Strategist, says trade uncertainty has a negative impact on businesses. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy & Senior Analyst, thinks there will be some rebels within the Labour party who will vote for a deal.
Oct 17, 2019
Surveillance: Global Risks Are Interconnected, Bremmer Says
2039
Ian Bremmer Eurasia Group Founder & President and Thomas Buberl, AXA CEO, launch a co-authored report looking at the key emerging risks facing the world in the next 5-10 years. Alison Williams, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst, dissects Bank of America's third-quarter results. Admiral James Stavridis, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Former Supreme Allied Commander at NATO, sees bipartisan agreement that the current crisis in Syria is considered a failure of American foreign policy. Leo Tilman, "Agility" Author and Financier, explains why strategic and tactile agility should be practiced at any organization to thrive. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg TV & Radio Finance Reporter, says revenue at investment banks is not "winning."
Oct 16, 2019
Surveillance: U.S. Consumer Banking Very Strong, Cassidy Says
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Oct 15, 2019
Surveillance: Trade Friction Ahead, CIBC's Stretch Says
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Tom Orlik, Bloomberg Economics Chief Economist, updates us on trade talks between the U.S. and China. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief U.S. Economist, says the slowdown in Chinese manufacturing began before we had an escalation of trade tensions. Jeremy Stretch, CIBC Head of G10 FX Strategy, discusses why scheduled tariffs will be pushed "further into the distance" if progress is made. Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research, discusses what to watch as U.S. banks report third-quarter earnings this week. And David Sowerby, Ancora Managing Director & Portfolio Manager, says what we know for certain is that CEOs don't like uncertainty.
Oct 14, 2019
Surveillance: This Is the Decade of Banking and Tech, Mayo Says
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Anthony Crescenzi, PIMCO Market Strategist, says uncertainty is driving the bond market.  Rupert Harrison, Multi-Asset Strategies Portfolio Manager at BlackRock, discusses Brexit and says the European Union and Ireland have an incentive to wait things out to see what an election delivers. Mary Lovely, Peterson Institute Senior Fellow, explains why the Chinese are very wary of making a deal with President Trump right now. Brooke Sutherland, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says General Electric is trying to put a cap on viability spending in order to acclimate for new interest rates. Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research Head, says as banks report earnings, investors should pay attention to how banks are using technology to stay efficient.
Oct 14, 2019
Surveillance: Economy is Slowing But Still Growing, Rhame Says terminal: Surveillance: Slowing But Still Growing, Rhame Says (Podcast)
2029
Tom Orlik, Bloomberg Economics Chief Economist, says the fact that the Chinese delegation are in the U.S. suggests they want a trade deal. Kathy Fisher, Bernstein Head of Wealth & Investment Strategies, foresees slower economic growth. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief U.S. Economist, discusses why it's critical to get the next rounds of tariff hikes suspended. Lionel Laurent, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, thinks the worst-case scenario for Brexit just improved. And Gene Munster, Loup Ventures Co-Founder, says Apple's wearable products will likely drive the company's stock higher in the future.
Oct 11, 2019
Surveillance: Trade Dispute Creating Uncertainty, Kaplan Says
2206
Ebrahim Rahbari, Citi Global Head of FX Analysis, explains why the currency issue between the U.S. and China will be easy to resolve. Steven Cook, CFR Senior Fellow for Middle East & Africa Studies, discusses how the Turkish incursion has the potential to affect politics in Europe and the U.S. David Pearl, Epoch Investment Partners Co-Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager, says Saudi Aramco's upcoming IPO is less about growth and more about increasing ownership value. Robert Kaplan, Dallas Fed President, says any future rate adjustments should be restrained and modest.
Oct 10, 2019
Surveillance Special: Schwarzman On "What It Takes"
1430
Stephen Schwarzman, Blackstone CEO and Chairman, discusses his new book, "What it Takes: Lessons on the Pursuit of Excellence." He also weighs in on U.S.-China trade negotiations and notes their permanence after President Trump.
Oct 10, 2019
Surveillance: Trump Has Abandoned Kurds, Kamarck Says
1823
Drew Matus, Metlife Investment Management Chief Market Strategist, says that if the U.S.-China trade war ends with a partial truce then the whole conflict has been a waste. Priya Misra, TD Securities Global Head of Rates Strategy, thinks that negative rates in the U.S. would potentially break the financial system. Lale Topcuoglu, JOHCM Fund Head of Credit & Senior Fund Manager, discusses why a top-down approach can be misleading for investors. And Elaine Kamarck, Brookings Senior Fellow, says the Kurds have been the U.S.A.'s best allies in the Middle East region.
Oct 09, 2019
Surveillance: Debt is Creating Vulnerabilities, Adrian Says
1684
Bill Lee, Milken Institute Chief Economist says, the trade dispute has spilled over into a capital market dispute. Tobias Adrian, IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department Director, says rising debt around the world is creating certain vulnerabilities. Jihad Azour, IMF Middle East and Central Asia Department, says only the private sector can help build the economic state of Middle Eastern countries, prioritizing"inclusive growth." Sarah House, Wells Fargo Senior Economist, explains why she expects to see a dip to a run rate economy below 2% over the next couple of quarters. Tom Petrie, Petrie Partners Chairman, says major oil companies in North America are behind the curve on the shale revolution.
Oct 08, 2019
Surveillance: Trouble with U.S. Economy is Europe, Kudlow Says
3004
Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, says average hourly earnings is the most important number to pay attention to from the U.S. Employment Report because it provides insight about consumers' ability to drive consumption. Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist, says the Fed's dot plot can be confusing at times but is here to stay. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Systematic Fixed Income Team Senior Portfolio Manager, says we are heading in the direction of slow employment growth. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO U.S. Economist, says Friday's mixed jobs data coupled with disappointing ISM data suggests that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in October and could lead to more easing in December. Larry Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, says the real economic trouble for the United States is the collapse of the European economy, not the ongoing trade war with China.
Oct 04, 2019
Surveillance: Treasury Curve Immune to Equity Moves, Patel Says
1651
Krishna Memani, Invesco Vice Chairman of Investments, says the U.S. economy will be able to grow at a reduced rate, despite trade tensions and manufacturing weakness, because of the momentum in the consumer and service sectors. Margaret Patel, Wells Capital Management Senior Portfolio Manager, thinks that the treasury curve is pretty much immune to short-term fluctuations in stocks. Shuli Ren, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says U.S. investors see China as a big country with "a lot" of demand, but no supply. Dean Curnutt, Macro Risk Advisors CEO, discusses the implications of a global economic slowdown on the VIX index.
Oct 03, 2019
Surveillance: No End in Sight for Slowdown, Zingales Says
2093
Luigi Zingales, University of Chicago Booth School Finance Professor, says the global slowdown is going to continue until Germany delivers a major fiscal package, which is unlikely to happen any time soon. Rosalind Mathieson, Bloomberg International Government Executive Editor, says Prime Minister Johnson will crash out if he gets a no-deal Brexit. John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer & Co. Chief Investment Strategist, thinks that the demand for equities is likely to increase. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Global Markets Chief U.S. Economist, details the current growth scare saying, “it’s harder to attribute this growth scare to something transitory.” David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Host of Bloomberg's Peer to Peer Conversations, reflects on his conversation with Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg who reiterated her belief in incremental justice.
Oct 02, 2019
Surveillance: Clear Slow Down In Labor Market, Page Says
2104
David Page, AXA Investment Managers Senior Economist U.S. & U.K., says that we are close to a tipping point in the labor market. Timothy Graf, State Street Bank Head of EMEA Macro Strategy, says the Fed is more dovish than what markets anticipate. Alessio de Longis, Invesco Investment Solutions Senior Portfolio Manager, says emerging market growth is what will lead us into a rotation trade. Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Group Head of Research Strategy, says China is working to ease current tensions but is not interested in pursuing the kind of structural reforms that Trump and Washington say are necessary. And Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, says we don't have the tools we once had to stimulate the economy.
Oct 01, 2019
Surveillance: Xi Jinping's Vision With CFR's Economy
1881
Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist, says China has given up on President Trump. Elizabeth Economy, CFR Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies, says the Chinese government will continue to use all the mechanisms they have at their disposal to keep the economy stable. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy Research, discusses developments in the potential trading restrictions between U.S. and Chinese companies. And Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says the consumer remains resilient because the labor market is strong.
Sep 30, 2019
Surveillance: Impeachable Offenses With Newman
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Russ Koesterich, BlackRock Global Allocation Fund Portfolio Manager, says inflation is low. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg TV & Radio Finance Reporter, discusses what's ahead for new Wells Fargo CEO Charles Scharf. Lindsay Newman, Chatham House U.S. and the Americas Programme Senior Research Fellow, says the partisan divide is key in impeachment proceedings. And Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, discusses Brexit's impact on how the BOE will operate as October 31st nears.
Sep 27, 2019
Surveillance Special: Ken Burns on "Country Music" (Podcast)
1077
Ken Burns, Documentary Filmmaker, joins Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney for a discussion on his latest film, "Country Music." Burns discusses iconic Martin guitars, the modernization of the genre, and country music's role in U.S. history.
Sep 27, 2019
Surveillance: A Preview of the U.S. House Hearing
3000
Marty Schenker, Bloomberg Chief Content Officer, says President Donald Trump is his own counsel. Steven Wieting, Citi Private Bank Global Chief Investment Strategist, says U.S. shares are the best performing assets. Leslie Vinjamuri, Chatham House Head of U.S. & Americas Programme, discusses the rationality of an impeachment inquiry. Hugo Rogers, Deltec Chief Investment Strategist, predicts a general election in the U.K. and says Boris Johnson will be the catalyst. Joyce Chang, JPMorgan Global Research Chair, says every 1% decline in China's growth is about .4% off of global growth. And Justin Sink, Bloomberg News White House Correspondent, previews the House hearing with Acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire today.
Sep 26, 2019
Behind the Scenes With Bill Dudley, Former New York Fed President
75
Bill Dudley, senior research scholar at Princeton University, and former New York Fed President, discusses the benefits of Federal Reserve repo operations, a politicized Fed and his role during the 2008 financial crisis. He spoke to Bloomberg's Tom Keene.
Sep 26, 2019
Surveillance: Bloomberg Global Business Forum
945
Surveillance comes to you from the Bloomberg Global Business Forum today. In conversation with  International Monetary Fund Acting Managing Director David Lipton.
Sep 25, 2019
Surveillance: Bloomberg Global Business Forum
2902
Surveillance comes to you from the Bloomberg Global Business Forum today. We speak with policy makers, CEOs and strategists.
Sep 25, 2019
Surveillance: This Is The New Normal, Amoa Says
1605
Diana Amoa, JPMorgan Asset Management Senior Portfolio Manager, argues that this low interest rate environment is the "new normal." Marilyn Watson, BlackRock Head of Global Fundamental Fixed Income Strategy, says trade tensions and fiscal stimulus are both core components of global growth. Thomas Raines, Chatham House Head of Europe Programme, defines the Boris Johnson versus Nigel Farage Brexit-voters. And Wei Li, Blackrock Head of iShares EMEA Investment Strategy, says they've recently upgraded European equities from underweight to neutral.
Sep 24, 2019
Bill Dudley on Fed's Repo Facility, Negative Rates, Trade War
1602
Bill Dudley, senior research scholar at Princeton University, and former New York Fed President, discusses the benefits of Federal Reserve repo operations, a politicized Fed, the prospect of negative interest rates, and the economic impact of the U.S.-China trade war. He spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Jonathan Ferro.
Sep 23, 2019
Surveillance: Fiscal Vs. Monetary Policy With Buiter
1583
Willem Buiter, Citi Special Economic Adviser, says in Europe, there has not been a thorough "cleaning up" of the bank balance sheet. Wendy J. Schiller, Brown University Chair of Political Science, says politicians do not like uncertainty. Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives President & Founder, offers her take on U.S. economic data. Admiral James Stavridis, former Supreme Allied Commander at NATO and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says anytime domestic politics assert themselves into international security concerns, there is a great risk.
Sep 23, 2019
Surveillance: The Fed's Options With Kroszner
1614
Today we start with a segment from Bloomberg Surveillance TV. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, says excess reserves in repo systems are ultimately not doing their job. Randall S. Kroszner, University of Chicago Professor and Former Federal Reserve Board Member, explains why the Fed should allow the balance sheet to continue to grow. Seema Shah, Principal Global Investors Chief Strategist, says people still have some optimism about Brexit. Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macro's Chief Economist & Founder, says that the trade war might actually be helping consumer spending right now. And Rett Wallace, Triton Research CEO, reviews WeWork's IPO.
Sep 20, 2019
Surveillance: It's Time to Move Into Fiscal Gear, Boone Says
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Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, says the Fed is "absolutely" going to start purchasing assets again. Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist, explains the Repo market. Laurence Boone, OECD Chief Economist, says if governments continue to rely solely on monetary policy, it will be difficult to put a break on the global growth slide. Greg Peters, PGIM Senior Portfolio Manager, says we have lots of room to run before we get a negative yield. And it's that time of year again -- Harvard University Football Coach Tim Murphy tells us what to watch this college football season.
Sep 19, 2019
Surveillance: Fed Day with Citi's Mann
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Catherine Mann, Citi Global Chief Economist, doesn't think the Fed's march towards 100 basis point cuts is a done deal. Jack Ablin, Cresset Wealth Advisors Founding Partner and CIO, says recession is the new expansion. Stephen King, HSBC Senior Economic Advisor, says low unemployment appears positive but can often be a sign of wage pressures beginning to build. And Austan Goolsbee, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Professor of Economics & Former Council of Economic Advisers Chair, thinks people are putting too much weight in that the "Fed can save us."
Sep 18, 2019
Surveillance: Aramco Has Built-In Resiliency, Wald Says
2405
Michael Holland, Holland & Company Chairman, discusses the origin of WeWork's "budding fiasco." Robert Shiller, 2013 Nobel Prize Winner, says President Trump's narrative has had immense power. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Global Energy Center Non-Resident Senior Fellow & Transversal Consulting President, says due to their built-in resiliency, Aramco may be back online sooner than expected. Paul Sankey, Mizuho Securities Oil Analyst, says the attacks on Aramco are a challenge for China, given their dependence on Middle Eastern oil. And Anat Admati, Stanford Professor of Finance & Economics, says the size of big tech companies become a symptom of the problems they are facing.
Sep 17, 2019
Surveillance: Saudi Oil Supply With Tchilinguirian
2168
Harry Tchilinguirian, BNP Head of Commodity Markets Strategy, breaks down the market risk surrounding the recent attack on Saudi oil supply. Michael Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, says based on the data released today, there are structural reasons why China is slowing down. Ted Alden, CFR Senior Fellow, says the global economy needs leadership. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy Research, has her eye on how China and Iran will interact following the oil turbulence in Saudi Arabia. And Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex Chief Market Strategist, explains what it means when countries "borrow dollars."
Sep 16, 2019
Surveillance: Optimistic On China's Eco Growth, Fisher Says
1865
Kathy Fisher, Bernstein Head of Wealth and Investment Strategies, says the tolerance for deficit spending is greater than ever. Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Group Head of Research Strategy, says neither China nor the U.S. are desperate enough to reach a trade agreement. Simon French, Panmure Gordon Chief Economist, says the Federal Reserve is under political pressure to follow the actions of the ECB. Giles Turner, Bloomberg News EMEA Tech Reporter, says WeWork needs to IPO to maintain its growth momentum. And Brian Rehling, Wells Fargo Investment Institute Co-Head of Fixed Income Strategy, discusses the predictive power of yield curve inversions.
Sep 13, 2019
Surveillance: ECB Restarts Quantitative Easing
2311
Joyce Chang, JPMorgan Securities Global Research Chair, says negative rates are here to stay. Alberto Gallo, Algebris Portfolio Manager, says European governments can now act on negative interest rates, for better or for worse. Marcus Ashworth, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says Mario Draghi is leaving a "smorgasbord" of policy options for Christine Lagarde. Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg TV & Radio Chief Washington Correspondent, and Chuck Gabriel, Capital Alpha President, tell Surveillance what to expect from tonight's U.S. Democratic debate in Houston. And we finish the show by remembering oil man T. Boone Pickens with Bloomberg Radio's Robert Moon.
Sep 12, 2019
Surveillance: 18 Years On, Remembering 9/11
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Bloomberg Surveillance remembers Sept. 11, 2001. We hear from Bloomberg Government Homeland Security Reporter Michaela Ross, Bloomberg News Europe Deals Reporter Sarah Syed, Leuthold Group Chief Investment Officer Doug Ramsey, Passion Capital Partner Eileen Burbidge, and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Chris Hughes.
Sep 11, 2019
Surveillance: Big Tech Break Up Has Begun, Galloway Says
2189
David Kirkpatrick, Techonomy Media CEO & Founder, says the arrogance of Silicon Valley is being broken already, with the help of Facebook's errors. Derek Halpenny, MUFG Head of European Global Markets Research, says the central bank easing course is "done and dusted." George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank Global Head of FX Research, says Europe is at a point with the ECB right now where "less is more." Nancy Ognanovich, Bloomberg Government Congressional Leadership Reporter, says we're looking at a 35% chance of another government shutdown this year. And Scott Galloway, NYU Stern Professor, warns of a consolidation of players in the streaming wars.
Sep 10, 2019
Surveillance: Negative Rates Are Crushing, Eisman Says
1902
Steve Eisman, Eisman Group Neuberger Berman Senior Portfolio Manager, thinks negative rates are "crushing" and a massive policy mistake. Steven Englander, Standard Chartered Global Head of G10 FX Strategy, looks ahead to the ECB meeting on Thursday. Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist, says the U.S. economy is going to be okay despite the headwinds coming from trade. And Therese Raphael, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says there is a movement towards reviving labor unions in the U.K.
Sep 09, 2019
Surveillance: Labor Market Story Strong, Says Kudlow
2811
Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist says significant increases in optimism in the labor market can lead to higher participation rates. James Mayger, Bloomberg China Economy Editor & Beijing Deputy Bureau Chief, breaks down what the PBOC cutting its reserve requirement ratio means for the Chinese economy. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Systematic Fixed Income Senior Portfolio Manager, explains why the August U.S. Job growth report is a"temporary" low. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO U.S. Economist, says the jobs report confirms the trend that the labor market is slowing. Larry Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, reacts to the jobs report, says "tempers are calmer" as China and the U.S. prepare for talks and believes Former Fed President Dudley linking monetary policy to the election is a "new low."
Sep 06, 2019
Surveillance: Not Optimistic For Trade Deal, Alden Says
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Jacob Kirkegaard, Peterson Institute for International Economics Senior Fellow, lays out the possible outcomes for another U.K. general election. Esther Reichelt, Commerzbank AG FX Strategist, forecasts that unconventional monetary policy measures will drive the euro-dollar. John Authers, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says Brexit is unsolvable without a solution between Ireland and the U.K. And Ted Alden, CFR Senior Fellow & Author, "Failure to Adjust: How Americans Got Left Behind in the Global Economy," says we're in a more dangerous phase of the trade war now.
Sep 05, 2019
Surveillance: Global Order Is Shifting, Gallo Says
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Stephen Gallo, BMO Capital Markets Head of FX Strategy, says these are dramatic times and the entire global order is shifting. Steve Tsang, University of London SOAS China Institute Director, says Carrie Lam's announcement to withdraw the controversial extradition bill means mainland China is taking a softer approach to Hong Kong. David Sowerby, Ancora Managing Director & Portfolio Manager, brings us an update on the Mid-Cap investing space. And Anne Stevenson-Yang, J Capital Research Directory & Co-Founder, says China is working "mightily" to avoid a crash in the Hong Kong market.
Sep 04, 2019
Surveillance: Economy Could Use More Fed Support, Memani Says
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Rob Carolan, Bloomberg Meteorologist, brings us an update on Hurricane Dorian. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, says retail sentiment is quite bearish. Dan Ahn, Former U.S. Department of State Chief Economist, doesn't think that weakness appearing in both the U.S. & world economy is driven solely by trade tensions. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, explores why global manufacturing has fallen into a slump and how it will impact global growth. And Krishna Memani, Invesco Vice Chairman of Investments, says valuations in EM are extraordinarily attractive.
Sep 03, 2019
Bonus: Behind the Scenes with GAMCO Investors CEO Mario Gabelli
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For an episode of Bloomberg's podcast Behind the Scenes, Bloomberg Surveillance’s Tom Keene sits down with GAMCO Investors CEO Mario Gabelli to discuss value investing, philanthropy and Warren Buffett.
Aug 30, 2019
Surveillance: Interest Rates Are Very Very Very Low, Fuss Says
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Lakshman Achuthan, Economic Cycle Research Co-Founder, thinks we would still be in a global slowdown without the U.S.-China trade war. Dan Fuss, Loomis Sayles Vice Chairman & Portfolio Manager, says the bid for dollar-based bonds is still very strong. Simon Usherwood, 'The UK in a Changing Europe' Deputy Director, says it's not clear what would happen if there is a general election in the U.K. Sarah House, Wells Fargo Securities Senior Economist, expects a consumption slowdown heading into the coming quarter. And Admiral James Stavridis, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, offers advice: "you've got to lead from the inside out."
Aug 30, 2019
Surveillance: Monetary Policy In A Bind, Romer Says
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Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief U.S. Economist, thinks that there is some recognition in the bond market that global growth may be slow for a long time. Mij Rahman, Eurasia Group Managing Director of Europe, says the economic cycle in Europe is not robust due to broader concerns about trade disputes. Jordan Rochester, Nomura FX Strategist, says the ECB has few options left for inflation. Peggy Collins, Bloomberg News Managing Editor U.S. Economy, says Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has left the question of currency up in the air. And Paul Romer, Nobel Laureate & NYU Stern School of Business Professor of Economics, thinks we've been slow to react to some of the negative effects of new technology.
Aug 29, 2019
Surveillance: Dudley Irresponsible, Posen Says
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Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says he is waiting for full acknowledgement of a U.S. recession. Adam Posen, PIIE President, discusses why Chairman Powell has to be wary of not predicting the outcomes of the U.S.-China trade war, but rather react to them. Tara Lachapelle, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says the Philip Morris-Altria reunion will benefit both companies. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Chief Strategist, says to expect a range-bound market while uncertainty over trade is at its peak. And Ferdinando Giugliano, Bloomberg Opinion Editor, discusses whether or not there's a place for politics in central bank decisions.
Aug 28, 2019
Surveillance: Markets Are Pressing The Fed, El-Erian Says
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Mohamed El-Erian, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Allianz Chief Economic Adviser describes how he thinks central banks are being held hostage by markets. Maddi Dessner, JPMorgan Asset Management Managing Director, says the U.S. consumer remains resilient in the wake of raising tariffs. Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity Chief Market Strategist, says it's better to react to market conditions rather than try to anticipate the next move. Catherine Mann, Citi Global Chief Economist, says currency intervention does not have a lasting impact. And Mario Gabelli, GAMCO Investors CEO, weighs in on the TV streaming wars.
Aug 27, 2019
Surveillance: Currency Intervention Risk With Nordvig
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Jens Nordvig, Exante Data Founder & CEO, analyzes dollar strength, in relation to the G-7 and U.S.-China trade talks. Margie Patel, Wells Fargo Asset Management Senior Portfolio Manager, says the Fed's new approach will allow the economy to grow. Ashwin Alankar, Janus Global Head of Asset Allocation & Risk Management, explains why monetary policy may not be able to do much to quell trade war uncertainty. John Hudak, Brookings Governance Studies Senior Fellow, questions whether there is a Democratic nominee who will work well with China on trade.
Aug 26, 2019
Surveillance: Fed Rate Cut Divergence In Jackson Hole
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Bloomberg's Michael McKee joins us with a series of interviews from the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. First, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard says U.S. farmers are in a down economy. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan says, "I'm open to adjusting rates but would prefer not to." Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester is "confident" inflation is moving back toward the Fed's goal. And Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker thinks the Fed should stay its course and see "how things unfold."
Aug 23, 2019
Surveillance: Easing Policy Is Not Free, Fed's George Says
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Dana Peterson, Citi Global Economist, says in respect to the trade war between the U.S. and China, the damage to the global economy has already been done. Esther George, Kansas City Fed President, joins Bloomberg's Michael McKee at Jackson Hole and says she is not ready to provide more policy accommodation. Robert Hormats, Kissinger Vice Chair & former Goldman Sachs International Vice-Chair, says a resolution to Brexit would ease volatility. And Brian Wieser, GroupM President, discusses ad business in the streaming age.
Aug 23, 2019
Surveillance: How Low Can Rates Go, Foley Asks
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Nick Bennenbroek, Wells Fargo Securities Head of Currency Strategy, predicts the U.S. dollar will remain stable or slightly stronger. Ralf Preusser, Bank of America Merrill Lynch International Global Head of Rates Strategy, says this is not a normal rate cut cycle for the Fed. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, questions whether or not there will be stimulus from Germany. And Brian Hook, Pompeo Senior Policy Adviser & U.S. Special Representative for Iran, says the White House's sanctions on Iranian oil have been successful.
Aug 21, 2019
Surveillance: U.S. Economy To Slow, Daco Predicts
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Greg Daco, Oxford Economics Chief U.S. Economist, says they're expecting the U.S. economy to slow this year. Ken Leon, CFRA Research Global Director of Research, says REITs, particularly healthcare REITs, are recession-resistant. Terry Haines, Pangea Policy Advisory Founder, says frustrations from trade talks stem from China not wanting to make an enforceable agreement. And Katherine Chiglinsky, Bloomberg Finance Reporter, says it's been surprising to investors over the years to see how connected GE still is to the insurance market.
Aug 20, 2019
Surveillance: Monetary Policy Can't Do It All, Says Rissmiller
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Don Rissmiller, Strategas Research Chief Economist, looks ahead to Jackson Hole and says monetary policy "can't do it all." Claus Vistesen, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Euro-Zone Economist, predicts Germany will enter a technical recession. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief U.S. Economist, says she expects the U.S. economy to slow to uncomfortably low levels but not a recession. Rob Schiffman, Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst, doesn't see much risk to Apple's cash flow regardless of the tariff situation.
Aug 19, 2019
Surveillance: Don't Press Panic Button, says Crescenzi
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Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO Market Strategist and Portfolio Manager, dismisses the idea of "pressing the panic button," given the economy's current outlook. Dana Peterson, Citi Global Economist, says the U.S. is participating in a global trade and manufacturing slump. Michael Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist and Macro Strategist, says central banks need to get ahead of the yield curve. Kevin Carey, New America Education Policy Vice President, explains the complications of existing federal student loan programs.
Aug 16, 2019
Surveillance: Job Market Still Resilient, Herrmann Says
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Russ Koesterich, BlackRock's Global Allocation Team Portfolio Manager, says our economy is increasingly dependent on the consumer. Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs Global Head of Commodities Research, says iron ore is the "canary in the coal mine." Sarah Halzack, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, recaps Walmart earnings. John Herrmann, Mufg Securities Americas Director of U.S. Rate Strategy, says the U.S. job market is still resilient. And Julian Jackson, "De Gaulle" Author, discusses France's history and its reflection on present day politics.
Aug 15, 2019
Surveillance: Recession Likely Within Year, Misra Says
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Priya Misra, TD Securities Global Head of Rates Strategy, says a recession is very likely within the next 12 months. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, believes the core issue with the trade war is actually how it's affecting business confidence, capex and hiring. George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures Founder and Chairman, explains why Beijing is deeply worried about Hong Kong protests. Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist, analyzes global yield curves. And Brian Kelly, The Points Guy Founder, says it's unstable times for tourism in Hong Kong. ------
Aug 14, 2019
Surveillance: Foreign Business in China To Decline, Rose Thinks
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Yvonne Mann, Bloomberg Markets Asia Anchor, reports Hong Kong protesters plan for another march on Sunday. Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Magazine Editor, predicts foreign business in China will decline. Brian Weinstein, Head of Global Fixed Income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, says Fed easing may keep us alive but it can't spur the global economy. Willem Sels, HSBC Private Banking Chief Market Strategist, is not yet buying the dip because he sees room for further shake-ups in the market. And Marie Owens Thomsen, Credit Agricole Indosuez Wealth Management Chief Economist, says the European banking sector is "a bit under-loved" right now.
Aug 13, 2019
Surveillance: We're Off The Grid Now For Yields, Weinberg Says
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Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist and Managing Director, saysthe longer we go, the greater the risk of a systemic failure caused by negative interest rates. Yvonne Man, Bloomberg TV Anchor, reports from Hong Kong that there are areas in the city that are still safe. Jeffrey Wright, Eurasia Group North America Analyst, says trade issues with China and the U.S. are longstanding. And Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives Founder & President, weighs in on the rate cut debate.
Aug 12, 2019
Surveillance: Ben Carson On Jobs, Housing, & The 2nd Amendment
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Ben Carson, U.S. Housing & Urban Development Secretary, says opportunity zones will bring investment into areas that were previously economically-deprived. Ron Temple, Lazard Asset Management Co-Head of Multi-Asset & Head of U.S. Equity, says the Fed is tackling a mid-cycle adjustment. Gregory Valliere, AFG Investments Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, says there's uncertainty for farmers in the midst of U.S., China trade tensions. And Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Strategist, says there are "likely more unpleasant headlines" for the markets in September.
Aug 09, 2019
Surveillance: Trade Issue Front & Center, Kostin Says
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Steve Wieting, Citi Private Bank Chief Investment Strategist, doubts that the Fed has any insight of what's next on trade. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs Chief Equity Strategist, says the gap between bond and earnings yields is the highest we've seen in a long time. Sonia Meskin, Standard Chartered U.S. Economist, discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy. And Annie Massa, Bloomberg Asset Management Reporter, discusses her Bloomberg Businessweek story, "Asset Managers With $74 Trillion on Brink of Historic Shakeout."
Aug 08, 2019
Surveillance: Trade War Is Unquantifiable Force, Normand Says
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Conrad DeQuadros, RDQ Economics Senior Economist & Founding Partner, hopes the Fed realizes their role in driving the markets. David Pearl, Epoch Investment Partners Co-CIO and Portfolio Manager, says monetary policy in Europe has run out of gas. Fred Bergsten, Peterson Institute for International Economics Founding Director, thinks the Chinese have been quite careful not to manipulate in the sense of "driving their currency down." John Normand, JPMorgan Head of Cross Asset Fundamental Strategy, calls the risk of a trade war an "unquantifiable force." And Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, says until a China-U.S. trade breakthrough is accomplished, the markets are going to remain very volatile.
Aug 07, 2019
Surveillance: Forecasting Year-End Bunds At -0.80%, Says Major
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Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, encourages diversification in this market environment. Robin Brooks, IIF MD & Chief Economist, says China's overall trade surplus is still large. Steven Major, HSBC Managing Director & Global Head of Fixed Income Research, cuts his year-end-2019 U.S. 10-year yield forecast to 1.50%. Lawrence Summers, Former U.S. Treasury Secretary, says we're in quite "uncharted territory" with President Trump weighing in on monetary policy and dollar strength. And Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley Chief Economist & Global Head of Economics, points to the surge in patent requests in China as a sign of growth.
Aug 06, 2019
Surveillance: CNY Weakness with Ruskin
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Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex Chief Market Strategist and Managing Partner, discusses the unintended consequences of U.S.-China tensions. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, says the U.S.-China trade war is more political than economic. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Securities Managing Director & Chief International Strategist, sees a level of disruption that could come from trade war escalation that's not being fully priced into the market. Lale Topcuoglu, JOHCM Senior Fund Manager, says investors are mis-pricing liquidity premiums. And Mark Connors, Credit Suisse Global Head of Prime Brokerage Portfolio & Risk Advisory, says a 1% yield on the U.S. 10-Year Treasury is more of a probability than a possibility.
Aug 05, 2019
Surveillance: Tariff Impact Very Small, NEC's Kudlow Says
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Michelle Meyer, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Head of U.S. Economics, says markets are encouraged by the dovish central bank pivot. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, does not expect President Trump's tariff threat to make China purchase more U.S. agricultural products. Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist, says the Fed failed to be aggressive enough. Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist, explains why average wage growth is being held down. Larry Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, says the consumer impact from China tariffs is very small.
Aug 02, 2019
Surveillance: The BOE Is Trapped, PIIE's Posen Says
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Adam Posen, Peterson Institute President, says the Bank of England can't do anything ahead of Brexit. Willem Buiter, Citi Special Economic Advisor, only sees the BOE hiking rates in response to a soft Brexit. Vincent Reinhart, Standish Mellon Asset Management Chief Economist, says he no longer takes "Japanification" as a bad term. Andrew Slimmon, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Senior Portfolio Manager, does a deep dive into consumer staple stocks. And Amanda Renteria, Clinton 2016 Presidential Campaign National Political Director, says a fighting spirit is more important than policy proposals for the Democratic candidates.
Aug 01, 2019
Surveillance: Focus On Fed's Forward Guidance, Stanley Says
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Stephen Stanley, Amherst Pierpont Chief Economist, doesn't think the Fed is paying a lot of attention to growth. Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Group Head of Research Strategy & Operations, says Washington and Shanghai are not getting to "core issues." Priya Misra, TD Securities Global Head of Rates Strategy, says we could get a post-ECB-type reaction if the market doesn’t get an explicit commitment to more cuts. And Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg Chief Washington Correspondent, joins us from the Democratic debates in Detroit with a preview for tonight.
Jul 31, 2019
Surveillance: Grim Outlook for Sterling with Rochester
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Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says the Fed is optimistic in terms of growth and inflation. Jordan Rochester, Nomura G-10 FX Strategist, discusses the grim outlook for the British Pound in the case of a no-deal Brexit. Jennifer Hillman, CFR Senior Fellow for Trade & International Political Economy and Former Commissioner at the U.S. International Trade Commission, thinks it will be extremely hard for the U.S. & China to reach a trade deal this week. And Jennifer Bartashus, Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst for Food Retail, says Beyond Meat's partnerships are keeping their momentum alive.
Jul 30, 2019
Surveillance: Dollar Has Peaked In This Cycle, Jalinoos Says
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Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Head of FX & Macro Trading Strategy, says the dollar has already peaked in this cycle. Terry Haines, Pangea Policy Advisory Founder, says the threat of direct Chinese intervention in Hong Kong is still there. Admiral James Stavridis, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, says that we have entered a red zone of miscalculation in the conflict with Iran. Tara Lachapelle, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, explores Dish CEO Charlie Ergen's current position after recent M&A in the sector.
Jul 29, 2019
Surveillance: U.S. Economy's Canary in Coal Mine with Rosenberg
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Peter Schaffrik, RBC Capital Markets Global Markets Strategist, says as long as the consumer stays strong, U.S. growth will keep a steady pace. Paul Sweeney, Bloomberg Surveillance Radio Anchor, recaps Amazon's second quarter results and previews the outlook for the e-commerce company. David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff Chief Economist, reacts to U.S. Second-quarter GDP and says he thinks small business employment serves as the canary in the coal mine for the economy. Tara Lachapelle, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, looks ahead to the anticipated approval of the T- Mobile-Sprint deal by the Department of Justice, which she says will do little to curtail the competitive advantage of the two merging companies.
Jul 26, 2019
Surveillance: Currencies Increasingly Politicized, Stretch Says
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Seema Shah, Principal Global Investors Chief Strategist, says the ECB is "laying the groundwork" for action in September by holding rates steady in July. Jeremy Stretch, CIBC Head of G10 FX Strategy, says currencies are becoming increasingly politicized. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group co-founder and host of "Peer-to-Peer Conversations," discusses his latest episode with Lorne Michaels and how the SNL creator has evolved the show's humor. Shira Ovide, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, thinks scrutiny of big tech is having a positive impact on business.
Jul 25, 2019
Surveillance: Economic Data Is Decelerating, Golub Says
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Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics & Policy Correspondent, discusses the impact of weakening German manufacturing data ahead of the ECB's rate decision tomorrow. Bob Hormats, Kissinger Associates Vice Chair, says incoming U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's proposed cabinet reflects the diversity of the Tory Party. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Chief Strategist, says global negative yields are inescapable in the U.S. Tim O'Brien, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says only legislators who have read the full Mueller report should be allowed to ask questions in the hearings today. And Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, does not expect falling interest rates to be good for stocks.
Jul 24, 2019
Surveillance: The U.K. Is Split, Cambridge's Barnard Says
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Gabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, is bearish on European equities in the short term. Catherine Barnard, Cambridge University Professor, discusses the challenges incoming U.K. Tory Leader Boris Johnson could face if he has to govern without a majority. Narayana Kocherlakota, Bloomberg View Columnist & former Minneapolis Fed President, says Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has proven himself to be a consensus builder. Gita Gopinath, IMF Chief Economist, says inflation is "undershooting for most of the major economies." And Francine Lacqua, Bloomberg Surveillance TV Anchor, discusses who Boris Johnson may appoint to his cabinet.
Jul 23, 2019
Surveillance: Inflation Picture on Weak Side, Hooper Says
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Robert Feldman, Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Senior Advisor, discusses Japan's Prime Minster Abe's slim victory and his plan to hike tax rates. Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank Securities Economic Research Global Head, says he expects several rate cuts by the end of this year assuming trade tensions worsen. Brooke Sutherland, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says aerospace is still a safe space to be invested in. Jonathan Portes, Kings College Economics and Public Policy Professor, says that none of the options on the table will make Brexit go away.
Jul 22, 2019
Surveillance: The Fed's Dramatic Pivot with Citi's Mann
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James Sweeney, Credit Suisse Chief Economist, forecasts the Fed will cut rates from 25-50 basis points. Catherine Mann, Citigroup Global Chief Economist, says the incoming data from the U.S. and global economies do not warrant "dramatic" market pricing. Lisa Ellis, MoffettNathanson Partner, discusses how IBM's recent acquisition of Red Hat will strengthen its position in cloud computing. Anat Admati, Stanford Finance Professor, doesn't think the U.S. financial system is fundamentally safer than it was before the financial crisis. Mia Fineman, The Metropolitan Museum of Art Associate Curator & lead on, "Apollo's Muse: The Moon In The Age of Photography," and Bob Moon, Bloomberg Radio Anchor, remember the moon landing, 50 years on.
Jul 19, 2019
Surveillance: Potential Rate Cuts with RBC's Porcelli
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Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management CIO, warns U.S. Treasury yields are heading "all the way down to zero" over the next couple of years. Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, explains why there is "no economic justification" for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Equity Research Director, discusses overall bank earnings, noting the numbers were "slightly below expectations" across the board. Shira Ovide, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says Netflix subscriber numbers are the one thing that investors care about...and they sunk. Michael Nathanson, MoffettNathanson Founding Partner, discusses why he was shocked by Netflix's results.
Jul 18, 2019
Surveillance: Bright Spot Is The Consumer, Marangi Says
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Taylor Riggs, Bloomberg News Reporter, breaks down Bank of America's earnings. Chris Marangi, Gabelli Funds Co-Chief Investment Officer, recaps commonalities in the major bank reports. Bloomberg's Maria Tadeo calls in from Chantilly, France to discuss her conversation with French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire and his distaste for Facebook's Libra. Mitch Roschelle, PWC Partner & Business Development Leader, examines June housing starts, noting U.S. new-home construction fell for a second month. Michael Feroli, JPMorgan Chief U.S. Economist, thinks a powerful consumer and strong government spending will keep the U.S. ahead. And Bloomberg's Nathan Hager remembers Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens in a special report.
Jul 17, 2019
Surveillance: The Sweet Spot of Banking with Michaud
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Sonali Basak, Bloomberg News Investment Banking Reporter, notes JP Morgan's net interest is on the decline. Tom Michaud, KBW Chief Executive, discusses why the dynamic of smaller to larger banks is shifting. John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Co. Chief Investment Strategist, says financials are a good place to be as a shareholder. Taylor Riggs, Bloomberg Reporter, notes there were "no big surprises" in Wells Fargo's earnings. Mark McCormick, TD Bank Global Head of FX Strategy, explains how he gauges the dollar in the midst of trade tensions. Diane Swonk, Grant Thorton Chief Economist, discusses the "pretty stunning" gains in online retail sales.
Jul 16, 2019
Surveillance: Europe's New Leaders with Kirkegaard
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Jacob Kirkegaard, Peterson Institute Senior Fellow, thinks Europe will have a pragmatic new leadership team if Ursula von der Leyen is approved for Commission president. Bloomberg's Taylor Riggs reacts to Citigroup's second-quarter results. Ken Leon, CFRA Director, Equity Research previews this week's bank earnings and is enthused about U.S. banks' new ability to return cash. Duncan Fox, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Industry Analyst, sees AB InBev's Asian IPO Suspension as a signal that there is little room for consolidation in the region. Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Alex Webb and Greg Boutle of BNP Paribas discuss Alan Turing's legacy in artificial intelligence and mathematics as the U.K. announces him as the face of the new 50-pound note.
Jul 15, 2019
Surveillance: China Waiting on Huawei Details, Broderick Says
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Willem Buiter, Citi Special Economic Adviser, says Europe is yet to clean up the banking system following the financial crisis. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says the South African rand is the most obvious EM FX trade. Susan Lund, McKinsey Partner, discusses her report, "The Future of work in America." And Kelsey Broderick, Eurasia Group China Analyst, says President Trump and his trade negotiators have different goals in talks with China.
Jul 12, 2019
Surveillance: No Recession Anytime Soon, Doll Says
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Bob Doll, Nuveen Asset Management Chief Equity Strategist, explains the real issues the U.S. faces today but "doesn't see a recession any time soon." Chris Grisanti, Grisanti Capital Management CEO, shares best practices in investing and discusses value with the S&P 500 near record highs. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Chief Strategist, says, "The Fed's actions today are going to support the riskiest parts of the market." Paul Sweeney, Bloomberg Radio Anchor, calls in from Sun Valley where the top names in tech and media are gathered for the 2019 Allen & Co. Conference.
Jul 11, 2019
Surveillance: Deutsche Bank Will Survive, Albertson Says
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Stephen Stanley, Amherst Pierpont Chief Economist, says that if the Fed is not planning on cutting in July, it needs to tell markets soon. Robert Albertson, Sandler O'Neill Chief Investment Strategist, thinks Deutsche Bank will "survive" their $8.3 billion overhaul plan. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, discusses Trump's position on Huawei in the aftermath of the G-20. Paul Sweeney, Bloomberg Radio Anchor, surveys the media sector from the Allen & Co. Conference in Sun Valley. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman and "Peer-to-Peer Conversations" Host, previews his conversation with Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi.
Jul 10, 2019
Surveillance: Dollar's Power Here to Stay, Bloom Says
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Lindsey Bell, CFRA Investment Strategist, says that while defensive stocks are performing well, the technology sector is "the best performing sector on a year-to-date basis." Chris Whalen, a former debt rater at Kroll Bond Rating Agency and now Whalen Global Advisors Chairman, has bearishly low expectations for Deutsche Bank's future. David Bloom, HSBC Global Head of FX Strategy, thinks that the power of the U.S. dollar is here to stay. Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, argues the economy does not need rate cuts but does need "a Fed that is going to show support." And Paul Sweeney, Bloomberg Radio Anchor, joins us from the Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference to preview his upcoming media and tech interviews.
Jul 09, 2019
Surveillance: Deutsche Bank Cuts, Restructures
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Filippo Alloatti, Hermes Senior Credit Analyst, says Deutsche Bank must now work with regulators on a new investment strategy to be "less of a problem" in the future. Alison Williams, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst of Global Investment Banks & Asset Managers, thinks Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing has made "the best of bad choices" with the company's latest restructuring plan. Marcus Ashworth, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, examines the embattled Deutsche Bank's retreat out of investment banking, saying the German lender is not going to be "the Goldman Sachs of Europe." And Krishna Memani, Invesco Vice Chair of Investments, thinks the U.S. Economy is going to pick up in the second half.
Jul 08, 2019
Surveillance: Fed Should Take Back Rate Hike, Kudlow Says
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Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives President and Founder, explains how the Fed must ideally move ahead of risks instead of waiting on data. Jason Furman, Former White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman, predicts what the stronger than expected U.S. jobs report might mean for the Fed. Michael Darda, MKM Holdings Chief Economist & Market Strategist,  doesn't think the strong employment report should be enough to prevent the Fed from easing policy. Larry Kudlow, White House National Economic Council Director, says that the Federal Reserve should "take back" the interest rate hike because of positive economic and market indicators. Simon Kennedy, Bloomberg Economics Executive Editor, reports that European government are actively discussing nominating BOE Governor Mark Carney as the next head of the IMF.
Jul 05, 2019
Surveillance: USTR-China Meeting to Happen Soon, Navarro Says
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Kathy Fisher, Bernstein Head of Wealth & Investment Strategies, identifies the need for adaptability in a disruptive global economy. Frederik Ducrozet, Pictet Wealth Management Strategist, is pleasantly surprise by the choice to have Christine Lagarde take the helm from Mario Draghi. Peter Navarro, Assistant to the President for Trade and Manufacturing Policy, says U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will soon meet face to face with China Vice Premier Liu He. Rick Atkinson, author of "The British Are Coming," reflects on the legacy of the Revolutionary War in the first volume of his new trilogy.
Jul 03, 2019
Surveillance: Borrowers Simply not Borrowing, Caron Says
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Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Fixed-Income Portfolio Manager, identifies one of the contributing factors to increased negative-yielding European debt: "borrowers are simply not borrowing." Jeffrey Wright, Eurasia Group U.S. Analyst, believes that the administration's reasoning behind no firm deadline in U.S.-China trade discussions is to avoid market pressure. Megan Greene, Harvard Kennedy School Senior Fellow, explains why the Fed will most likely cut rates. Jai Jacob, Lazard Asset Management Managing Director, says market uncertainty is being driven by trade, monetary and fiscal policy.
Jul 02, 2019
Surveillance: Growth Overall Is Coming Down, Weinberg Says
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Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist & Founder, says the industrial recession in Europe is ongoing with "no clear end in sight." Bob Profusek, Jones Day Global Chair of M&A, talks potential takeovers in the second half and what he's watching. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says durable goods and inventories are important market economic data points. And Daniel Ives, Wedbush Securities Analyst, explains how forthcoming trade talks between the U.S. and China will impact Apple's shares and production.
Jul 01, 2019
Surveillance: The Best G-20 Outcome With Hormats
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Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, explains why she thinks small cap stocks deserve to be underperforming. Robert Hormats, Kissinger Associates Vice-Chair, says rather than focusing on China, the U.S. ought to strengthen its own competitive capability. Shira Ovide, Bloomberg Opinion Technology Columnist, doesn't think there's a software guru at Apple. And Lawrence Ferrara, NYU Professor of Music, says copyright infringement claims have greatly increased over the past several years.
Jun 28, 2019
Bloomberg Special: The Americans Are Coming, MLB In London
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In this special, the Surveillance team does a deep dive on Major League Baseball's debut in the U.K. Robert Manfred Jr., MLB Commissioner, speaks on the profound financial opportunities of bringing Major League Baseball to Europe. And Sam Kennedy, Boston Red Sox CEO, illustrates the severity of the need to grow the MLB on an international scale.
Jun 28, 2019
Surveillance: Energy Stocks Are Unloved, Emanuel Says
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Julian Emanuel, BTIG Chief Equity and Derivatives Strategist, explains why he thinks energy stocks are currently unloved. Shawn Donnan, Bloomberg Senior Writer, examines a potential pause in tariffs at the G-20 in Osaka - where Huawei could be a detrimental factor in trade discussions. Brooke Sutherland, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, analyzes a new technical malfunction for Boeing and what it could mean for the current share value. And Joseph Abboud the Chief Creative Director at Tailored Brands, the parent company of Men's Wearhouse, shares how European and American men's fashion differ.
Jun 27, 2019
Surveillance: We've Had Too Little Globalization, Mann Says
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Joyce Chang, JPMorgan Chair of Global Research, says, "it's not all about the Fed," expecting fixed income yields to lower. Catherine Mann, Citi Managing Director and Global Chief Economist, hones in on the "most pivotal" issue: the interaction of financial markets and the real economy based on the G20. Tim O'Brien, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, expects moderate and progressive discussions during tonight's Democratic debate. Stephen Stanley, Amherst Pierpont Chief Economist, explains why he thinks productivity growth may be accelerating. And Seema Shah, Bloomberg Intelligence Consumer Senior Analyst, says there's no money to be made in the The RealReal's luxury consignment business.
Jun 26, 2019
Surveillance: China Could Wait Out Trump, Crebo-Rediker Says
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Tobias Levkovich, Citi Investment Research Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, shares why he has been bullish on healthcare equipment services. Liz Krutoholow, Bloomberg Intelligence Healthcare Analyst, describes the horizon for Allergan's long term growth as "unimpressive." Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Council on Foreign Relations Adjunct Senior Fellow, thinks a trade war ceasefire is the best we can hope for from a Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20. And Golnar Montevalli, Bloomberg Reporter in Tehran, doubts personal sanctions against religious leaders will have a tangible impact on the economy.
Jun 25, 2019
Surveillance: Tariffs Have Many Uses, Peter Navarro Says
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Dan Tannebaum, PwC Global Sanctions Leader, discusses how the U.S. could continue to pressure Iran despite running low on additional things to sanction. Mary E. Lovely, Peterson Institute Senior Fellow & Syracuse University Professor, considers the possible outcomes of the forthcoming meeting between President Trump and President Xi. And Peter Navarro, Assistant to the President and Director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, says Mexico and the United States are significantly closer now. And Former Rep. Joe Sestak Jr., Democratic Presidential Candidate, says his military experience sets him apart when it comes to foreign policy.
Jun 24, 2019
Surveillance: Adm. Stavridis on Worsening Iran Conflict
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William Lee, Milken Institute Chief Economist, parses the Fed message with conflicting economic signals resulting in new emphasis on next jobs report. Leslie Falconio, UBS Global Wealth Management's Chief Investment Office Senior Strategist, shares her preferred market strategy — overweight equity versus fixed income. Dan Yergin, IHS Markit Vice Chairman, is surprised at how well the market has adjusted to the cessation of Iranian and Venezuelan oil. Diane Jaffee, TCW Group Senior Portfolio Manager, says business uncertainty will lead to decreased capital expenditures. And Adm. James Stavridis, Carlyle Group Adviser & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says President Trump's "military policy by tweet" is "so unhelpful."
Jun 21, 2019
Surveillance Special: Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida
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In an exclusive conversation with Tom Keene, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida says the argument in favor of cutting interest rates has strengthened recently as cross currents buffet the U.S. economy, amid heightened uncertainty. Clarida also brushed aside concerns that the Fed’s political autonomy is at risk from President Donald Trump.
Jun 21, 2019
Surveillance: U.S. Not In Liquidity Trap, Henry Says
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Diana Amoa, JPMorgan Asset Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, discusses why the Fed needs to act into a deeper cutting cycle. Bill Smead, Smead Capital Management Founder, says the U.S. economy is pretty strong. Janet Henry, HSBC Bank Global Chief Economist, says a trade deal would be good news for equities. And Shira Ovide, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, indicates Slack is not raising capital today.
Jun 20, 2019
Surveillance: Blackstone's Schwarzman On Lower Rates
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We kick off with a segment from our TV broadcast with Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman. He tells Francine Lacqua & Tom Keene that lower rates would be great "symbolically" but it wouldn't change business decisions. Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives President and Founder, outlines the Fed's difficult communication challenge. Krishna Memani, Invesco OFI CIO, says growth is moderating but not to a catastrophic level. And Vincent Reinhart, Mellon Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, echoes Coronado's take that central banks have "a hard time anchoring" communications.
Jun 19, 2019
Surveillance: ECB Policy Not Targeted At USD, Posen Says
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We kick off with a segment from our Bloomberg TV show with Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Nordea Asset Management's Sebastian Galy. They weigh in on Facebook's new Libra cryptocurrency. Adam Posen, Peterson Institute President, says ECB policy is not targeted at the U.S. dollar. General Stanley McChrystal, Former Commander of U.S. and International Forces in Afghanistan, says "leadership requires character." Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says today's U.S. housing starts paint a negative picture for the second quarter. And Gary Shilling, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says the Fed does not want to go negative on rates.
Jun 18, 2019
Surveillance: The State of Employment with Blanchflower
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David Blanchflower, Former BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member and Dartmouth Professor, answers the question he asks in his new book: "Not Working: Where Have All the Good Jobs Gone?" Priya Misra, TD Securities Managing Director and Global Head of Rates Strategy, expects the Fed to signal readiness to ease policy in their next meeting, but that they will stop short of committing to a near-term cut. Bloomberg's Stephen Engle, reports live from Hong Kong, where protests continue. Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Group Head Of Research Strategy and Operations, expects Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam to continue to fight to hold on to her job. Elisa Martinuzzi, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says investors are disappointed in the vision that Deutsche Bank has given for its future since they walked away from merger discussions with Commerzbank.
Jun 17, 2019
Surveillance: U.S. Rates Near 0% in 5 Years, Crescenzi Says
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Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO Market Strategist and Portfolio Manager, sees U.S. rates collapsing toward 0% over the next five years. In a banking roundtable, Gerard Cassidy, Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy for RBC Capital Markets defends the profitability of U.S. investment banks, while Jonathan Tyce, Bloomberg Intelligence European Banking Analyst, says Barclays is better than Europe but still lagging its American peers. Alexia Howard, Bernstein Analyst, recently downgraded Beyond Meat because she saw the valuation get overstretched too quickly. Bill Keenan, Author & Retired Professional Ice Hockey Player, talks the transition from professional hockey to Wall Street.
Jun 14, 2019
Surveillance: Golden Age for Security Selection With Kantor
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Anthony DiPaola, Bloomberg Middle East Energy Markets Reporter, updates us on the attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Jason Gammel, Jefferies Energy Research Analyst, says both demand and supply concerns together are driving volatility in oil prices. Charles Kantor, Neuberger Berman Long Short Fund Senior Portfolio Manager, says the golden age for stock-picking is when factors drive underlying securities. Kathy Jones, Schwab Center for Financial Research Chief Fixed Income Strategist, says credit spreads remain narrow on expectations of Fed easing. And Bloomberg Businessweek Reporters, Max Abelson and Rebecca Greenfield, report parental leave is easier to get than to take for Wall Street dads.
Jun 13, 2019
Surveillance: Paul Tudor Jones on Making Money with 'Just Capital'
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Karen Leigh, Bloomberg China Government Editor, explains what sets the current protests in Hong Kong apart from previous demonstrations. Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Magazine Editor, says the trends in Hong Kong's autonomy are not going in the right direction. Spencer Dale, BP Group Chief Economist & Former BOE Official, says BP needs to shift from being an oil and gas company to an energy company. Paul Tudor Jones, Founder of Tudor Investment Corporation and Robin Hood Foundation, details the concept of 'just' company rankings and how those rankings translate into stock performance. And David Herro, Harris Associates CIO of International Equities, says if the instability in Hong Kong continues to lower pricing, there could be buying opportunities.
Jun 12, 2019
Surveillance: Goldman's Currie Calls for Cheaper Oil
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Jun 11, 2019
Surveillance: The UTX and Raytheon Deal With Heymann
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Mona Mahajan, Allianz Global Investors U.S. Investment Strategist, says the idea of one or two rate cuts by year end is starting to make sense. Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex Chief Market Strategist, expects the Chinese renminbi to break through the 7.00 level within the next three months. Ben LaBolt, Obama 2012 Presidential Campaign Press Secretary, says Democrats need to attack the notion that immigration is affecting the average worker's job. Nick Heymann, William Blair Co-Group Head–Global Industrial Infrastructure, says Raytheon and United Tech are targeting an audience beyond institutional investors.
Jun 10, 2019
Surveillance: Moving Forward on Tariffs, Says CEA's Hassett
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Jason Furman, Former Council of Economics Chair, says issues with Mexico might be more important than the tensions with China. Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives President and Founder, says prime age participation in the labor force has room to grow. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Financial Management Senior Portfolio Manager, says the ECB will have to continue to support the euro-area with perpetual negative interest rates. And Kevin Hassett, White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman, says the President is set to weigh his options on Mexico tariffs.
Jun 07, 2019
Surveillance: Conservatives Are Without Party, Says George Will
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Today's episode begins with a conversation from Bloomberg TV with Antony Phillipson, British Consul General to New York, on the 75th Anniversary of D-Day. Following, Neil Shearing, Capital Economics Group Chief Economist, says that Mexico may fold to the U.S. in trade negotiations. George Will, "The Conservative Sensibility" Author, says conservatives are an orphan without a political party. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg Investment Banking Reporter, characterizes Wall Street's mood for the summer as "bored." Austan Goolsbee, Former White House Economic Adviser to President Obama, discusses the late Alan Krueger's book, "Rockonomics: A Backstage Tour of What the Music Industry Can Teach Us about Economics and Life."
Jun 06, 2019
Surveillance: Trade Talks Are Unpredictable, Hewson Says
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David Page, AXA Investment Managers U.S. & U.K. Senior Economist, says there is a small risk of a Fed cut in two weeks. Stephanie Baker, Bloomberg News Senior Writer, updates us on trade negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico. Victoria Hewson, Institute of Economic Affairs Senior Counsel, International Trade and Competition Unit, says President Trump is using powers not related to day-to-day trade policy. Jim Caron, Fixed-Income Portfolio Manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, discusses his latest note, "What is the Rates Market Telling Us." And David Rubenstein, The Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Executive Chairman, previews his upcoming episode of "Peer to Peer Conversations" with Melinda Gates.
Jun 05, 2019
Surveillance Fed Special: Low Inflation Nerves with Evans
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Michael McKee, Bloomberg News International Economics & Policy Correspondent, sits down with two Federal Reserve Presidents. First, Robert Kaplan of the Dallas Fed says the yield curve reflects heightened trade tensions. And Charles Evans of the Chicago Fed says he is "a little bit nervous" about low inflation. Following, Simon Kennedy, Bloomberg News Executive Editor of Economics, says the center of gravity has moved towards a rate cut. And Yelena Shulyatyeva, Bloomberg Economics Senior U.S. Economist, says in the U.S. economy, key cyclical momentum is still there.
Jun 05, 2019
Surveillance: Johnson & Trump Dissimilar, Diamond Says
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Jenny Leonard, Bloomberg Trade Reporter, and David Merritt, Bloomberg Senior Executive Editor, discuss what a trade deal could look like between the U.S. and a post-EU U.K. Mike Ryan, UBS Wealth Management Chief Investment Strategist, says the notion of fixing the issues between U.S. and China in the coming months is a little naïve after decades in the making. Guy Johnson, Bloomberg TV & Radio Anchor, provides insight into the press conference with President Trump and Prime Minister May. Bob Diamond, Atlas Merchant Capital CEO, says the financial services community want Brexit certainty.
Jun 04, 2019
Surveillance: Yen Stands to Benefit from Trade War, Says Barth
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Marvin Barth, Barclays Head of FX Strategy, believes that the dollar is ultimately the beneficiary of a volatile, global environment. Lorenzo Codogno, LSE Visiting Professor & Former Italian Treasury Chief Economist, says the government framework of Europe is still unfinished. Margaret Talev, Bloomberg White House Correspondent, discusses President Trump's tweets on London Mayor Sadiq Khan this morning. And Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, thinks the President's tariffs on Mexico also have to do with immigration at the border.
Jun 03, 2019
Surveillance: U.S. Is Now A Service Economy, Treyz Says
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Eric Farnsworth, Council of Americas Vice President, says the U.S. is going down a path that requires Mexico to react negatively. Laura Rosner, Macropolicy Perspectives Senior Economist, expects inflation to revert back to 2% over the next 6-12 months. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, recommends stacking up on avocados, in case the U.S. increases tariffs on Mexico. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, advises to buy utility stocks today because they have "relative immunity" to trade war fears.
May 31, 2019
The Age of Disruption with PIMCO
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In conversation with Bloomberg Surveillance and The Open's Jonathan Ferro, PIMCO CEO and CIO present their bearish view of corporate credit and what they expect when it comes to volatility and long term returns.
May 31, 2019
Surveillance: Fed Vs. The Markets With MUFG's Rupkey
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Chris Rupkey, MUFG Union Bank Chief Financial Economist, previews Fed Vice Chair Clarida's speech, saying it's the Fed versus the markets right now. Joel Levington, Bloomberg Intelligence Director of Credit Research, reacts to PIMCO's Scott Mather's call that this is "probably the riskiest credit market ever." Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Group Head of Research & Strategy Operations, says the U.S. restrictions on Huawei caught Beijing by surprise. And Democratic presidential candidate Gov. Steve Bullock (D-Montana) tells us he's the best candidate to win in Trump country.
May 30, 2019
Surveillance: Big Risks In Manufacturing Sector, Sweeney Says
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James Sweeney, Credit Suisse Chief Economist & Americas CIO, sees big risks in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Jerome Schneider, PIMCO MD & Head of Short Term Portfolio Management, says the movement in rates seems to indicate that a recessionary environment is on the rise. Beth Maclean, PIMCO EVP Portfolio Manager, offers investment advice for high risk environments. Hugo Rogers, Deltec CIO, thinks China is in a weaker position than the U.S. in the trade war.
May 29, 2019
Surveillance: China Can Stand Tariffs' Shock, Weinberg Says
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Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist, doesn't expect any agreement between the U.S. and China. Jacob Kirkegaard Peterson Institute for International Economics Senior Fellow, thinks a second Brexit referendum is "on the table." Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says consumer spending is not matching consumer confidence. Brian Kelly, The Points Guy, shares tips for finding cheap flights to Europe.
May 28, 2019
Surveillance Special: Telecom in 2019
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Rich Greenfield, BTIG Managing Director & TMT Analyst, says SNAP is their single best buy on the long side. Walter Piecyk, BTIG Managing Director & TMT Analyst, says Sprint and T-Mobile want Trump to see the deal as a way to beat China to 5G. Craig Moffet, MoffettNathanson Senior Research Analyst, discusses cable video losses.
May 24, 2019
Surveillance: Americans Are Underinvested In EM, Santos Says
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Steve Wieting, Citi Private Bank Global Chief Investment Strategist, says he has no doubt the American economy will continue to grow throughout the year. Anna Edwards, Bloomberg TV & Radio Anchor, says bringing together the Conservative will be the first challenge for their next leader. Gabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, thinks that structurally, 10% of portfolios should be EM.
May 24, 2019
Surveillance: Market Gives Trump Slack With China, Marangi Says
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Chris Marangi, Gabelli Funds Co-Chief Investment Officer, advises to be more cautious with companies that have exposure in China. Sonia Meskin, Standard Chartered U.S. Economist, says this Fed understands the interconnectedness of the U.S. and global economy. Gene Munster, Loup Ventures Co-Founder, says Tesla's demand is unknown in the near term. Don Gimbel, Sr. VP and Investment Professional for CIBC Private Wealth Management, says the U.S. will survive the trade war.
May 23, 2019
Bloomberg and Wondery Present: The Shrink Next Door
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Marty Markowitz had his share of problems. His parents had recently died. He had troubles at work. A failing relationship. He needed someone to help him through this rough patch in his life. So he decided to get some professional help from a psychiatrist. What he did not count on, was what happened in his life over the next twenty-nine years. This is a story about power, control, and turning to the wrong person for help.  Listen now at bloomberg.com/shrinknextdoor
May 22, 2019
Surveillance: Europe Disappeared From Investors Map, Gallo Says
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Daragh Maher, HSBC Securities US Head of FX Strategy, says outside of the U.S., there's no appetite for fiscal stimulus. Kathy Jones, Schwab Center For Financial Research Chief Fixed Income Strategist, expects inflation to stay “pretty stable even with tariffs.” Alberto Gallo, Algebris Investments Portfolio Manager, says Europe has disappeared from the map of many investors. Therese Raphael, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says governing a minority government has been the main reason she can’t get her deal passed. Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg Washington Correspondent, says Democrats will continue pushing for Trump's tax records to be released.
May 22, 2019
Surveillance: China Is Not A Small Player Anymore, Kelly Says
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Troy Gayeski, Skybridge Capital Co-CIO, says as the trade war escalates, the probability of a rate hike decreases. David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, says we are almost at a bipolar world in terms of economic spheres of influence. Bob Diamond, Atlas Merchant Capital CEO, says Deutsche Bank lacks a strong domestic retail business. Seema Shah, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Consumer Analyst, says its an unknown for Home Depot if they will be impacted by tariffs.
May 21, 2019
Surveillance: Fed's Bostic Doesn't Foresee Rate Hike
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Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse Chief US Equity Strategist, says the likelihood of a recession is very low. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg Investment Banking Reporter, discusses the possibility of a leadership change at Deutsche Bank. Bill Schneider, George Mason Professor & Author, "Standoff: How America Became Ungovernable", thinks Joe Biden's candidacy represents a return to normal. Raphael Bostic, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President, does not see a rate cut this year.
May 20, 2019
Surveillance: China Is Overconfident, Carr Says
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Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Head of FX and Macro Trading Strategy, sees a permanent dollar shortage in China. Miranda Carr, Haitong International China Macro Strategist, thinks China is overconfident about how little tariffs impact their economy. Kate Bedingfield, Biden Deputy Campaign Manager, discusses Joe Biden's middle class roots. Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management Global CIO and Head of Global Fixed Income, notes the amount of money in money market funds is the highest since the financial crisis. Amy Myers Jaffe, CFR Senior Fellow for Energy & the Environment and Director of the Program on Energy Security & Climate Change, says the oil market is too relaxed for the current level of risk.
May 17, 2019
Surveillance: A Trade War Isn't Inflationary, Emanuel Says
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Ann Cairns, Mastercard Vice Chair, says it's important to introduce girls to STEM careers. Julian Emanuel, BTIG Chief Equity & Derivatives Strategist, says a trade war is not inflationary. Joe Feldman, Telsey Senior Research Analyst, says Walmart is less exposed than other retailers to tensions with China. Paul Donovan, UBS Global Chief Economist, thinks the slowdown in 2018 was somewhat caused by trade tensions. Gabriel Felbermayr, Kiel Institute for the World Economy President, posits that, although a "tariff pass-through"takes time to occur, a full pass-through to the American consumers would be highly unusual.
May 16, 2019
Surveillance: Possible Outcomes of Trade Talks With Spence
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Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley Chief Economist & Global Head of Economics, thinks trade tensions were the cause of China's slowdown. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, expects modest earnings growth in 2019. Emma Ross-Thomas, Bloomberg Brexit Editor, brings us a Brexit update. Mike Spence, NYU Professor, says it's confusing what the U.S. and China really want.
May 15, 2019
Surveillance: Trade Should Be Enhanced, Mann Says
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Catherine Mann, Citigroup Global Chief Economist, says closing the door to trade doesn't enhance an economy. Jens Nordvig, Exante Data Founder & CEO, analyzes the trade dispute's impact on the renminbi. Mark Lehmann, JMP Securities President, says China has more to lose than the U.S. and Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO & Chief Research Officer, discusses actions taken by retailers to alleviate the impact of tariffs.
May 14, 2019
Surveillance: Tariffs Are Attacks On Importers, Roach Says
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Michael Purves, Weeden Chief Global Strategist, says credit spreads have yet to back up. Stephen Roach, Yale Professor, Former Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman and Author of "Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China", says tariffs are attacks on importers and the U.S. is the importer. Keyu Jin, London School of Economics & Political Science Professor, thinks U.S. tariffs have caused a surge of nationalism in China. Ted Alden, CFR Senior Fellow, Author of "Failure to Adjust: How Americans Got Left Behind in the Global Economy", says Trump's complaints about China are legitimate but his tactics aren't.
May 13, 2019
Surveillance: China Will Retaliate If No Deal Today, Woo Says
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Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, says the burden of tariffs will fall on U.S. consumers. David Kirkpatrick, Techonomy Media CEO & Founder, says Uber will have to rise prices soon. Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, says the Fed is keeping a close eye on inflation. Devin McDermott, Morgan Stanley Executive Director and Head of North American Exploration & Production and Integrated Oil Research, sees nice opportunities for synergies at Anadarko. David Woo, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Head of Global Rates & FX Strategy, thinks different markets priced in different probabilities of a U.S.-China deal.
May 10, 2019
Surveillance: Being Against China Is Popular, Treyz Says
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Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank Global Head of Economic Research, thinks it's unlikely that China or the U.S. will back off. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Managing Partner & Director of Economic Policy Research, says being against China is "extraordinarily popular" in the U.S. Steve Ricchiuto, Mizuho Securities Chief Economist & Managing Director, says trade deals never solve trade deficit problems. Haran Segram, NYU Stern Professor, says it's not advisable to compare Uber with Amazon or Facebook for its valuation.
May 09, 2019
Tariffs Are A Job Killer, PIIE's Lovely Says
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Mary Lovely, Peterson Institute Senior Fellow & Syracuse University Professor, says U.S. businesses are negatively impacted by the tariffs imposed on China. David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff Chief Economist & Strategist, says there's way too much risk in the market. Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Interest-Rates Strategy, doesn't foresee a recession in the data. Golnar Motevalli, Bloomberg Iran Reporter, says the U.S. and Europe are on different sides when negotiating with Iran.
May 08, 2019
Surveillance: Nobody Wins A Trade War, Adm. Stavridis Says
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Willem Buiter, Citi Special Economic Adviser, says the full package of sanctions on China would be in nobody's interest. Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Group Head of Research Strategy and Operations, expects onward tariffs and confrontation after a U.S.-China deal. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, sees chances of a recession in 2020. Admiral James Stavridis, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, Carlyle Group Advisor & Former Supreme Allied Commander at NATO, says when studying European history, he learned nobody wins a trade war.
May 07, 2019
Surveillance: Equity Markets Still Pretty Good, Patel Says
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Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity Chief Market Strategist, thinks it's impossible to make an investment decision off of a tweet. Elaine Kamarck, Brookings Center For Effective Public Management Director, discusses Trump's negotiating tactics with China. Margie Patel, Wells Fargo Asset Management Senior Portfolio Manager, says the outlook for equity markets is still pretty positive. And Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, analyzes Amazon's challenges.
May 06, 2019
Surveillance: Capitalism Works, Langone Says
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Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, offers insights on output gap measurements. Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University Economics Professor, says professionalism is key in the Fed. Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist, thinks it's a relief that Stephen Moore's nomination was pulled. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock’s Systematic Fixed Income Team Senior Portfolio Manager, says today's jobs data continues a sequence of strong reports. Ken Langone, Author of "I Love Capitalism" & Home Depot Co-Founder, says capitalism can be brutal but it works.
May 03, 2019
Surveillance: A Long Way To Full Employment, Blanchflower Says
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Steven Englander, Standard Chartered Bank Global Head of FX, says the Fed's inflation forecast record isn't brilliant. Jerome Schneider, PIMCO Head of Short-Term Portfolio Management, expects the next Fed move to be higher in rates. Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth Professor & Former BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member, says there's still quite a long way to full employment. Sarah House, Wells Fargo Securities Senior Economist, expects a slowdown in the labor market.
May 02, 2019
Surveillance: People Are No Longer With Maduro, O'Neil Says
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Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, believes we will avoid an earnings recession this year. Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities Managing Director, says Apple will make new highs over the coming months. Shannon O'Neil, CFR Senior Fellow for Latin American Studies, highlights that the military is not fully under Maduro's control. Randy Kroszner, Univ. of Chicago Professor & Former Fed Governor, says the Fed being under political pressure is nothing new.
May 01, 2019
Surveillance: Venezuelans Want Regime Change, Jimenez Says
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Joe Quinlan, Head of CIO Market Strategy for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, sees signs of hope in European eco. Maryhen Jimenez Morales, Oxford University Politics Lecturer, says 90% of Venezuelans want a peaceful regime change. Alex Conant, Former Marco Rubio Presidential Campaign Communications Director, says the political unrest in Venezuela is destabilizing for the region. Brooke Sutherland, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, brings us an update on GE. Michael Purves, Weeden & Co-Chief Global Strategist, says that solid (but not spectacular) earnings and GDP growth have become the new normal.
Apr 30, 2019
Surveillance: The U.S. Is Still The Driest Towel, Chandler Says
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Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Foreign Exchange Chief Market Strategist & Managing Partner, says the U.S. is still the driest towel in the global economy. Catherine Yeung, Fidelity Investment Director, says the Belt and Road Initiative aims at increasing China's soft power. Alastair Newton, Alavan Business Advisory Director, says the Spanish populist party is eurosceptic but not anti-European. Dr. Peter Hotez, Dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, discusses the anti-vaccine movement and measles. Craig Moffett, MoffettNathanson Senior Research Analyst, says no one else can follow Disney's strategy because no one else has the advantages of being Disney.
Apr 29, 2019
Surveillance: GDP, Not That Positive Under The Hood, Greene Says
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Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO, says the last decade has been "a magical time" for companies to raise capital. George Bory, Wells Fargo Head of Fixed Income Research, says there's a real conundrum in the bond market. Eileen Burbidge, Passion Capital Partner, says Twitter's success will depend on their ability to control abusive behavior on their platform. Megan Greene, Manulife Asset Management Global Chief Economist, thinks GDP data are not as positive as the headline might suggest.
Apr 26, 2019
Surveillance: Dollar Strength Is Unsustainable, Tirupattur Says
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Matt Miller, Bloomberg TV & Radio Anchor, says most German politicians were against the Deutsche Bank-Commerzbank merger. Jonathan Tyce, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior European Banks Analyst, thinks it makes sense to consolidate small domestic banks. Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley Head of Fixed Income Research & Director of Quantitative Research, says dollar strength is unsustainable. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, says Joe Biden will be the centrist of the 2020 race. Shira Ovide, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, thinks Facebook still has many privacy challenges ahead. And Scott Galloway, Leonard Stern School of Business Marketing Professor, discusses the tech earnings bonanza.
Apr 25, 2019
Surveillance: Progressive Capitalism With Joseph Stiglitz
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Marcus Ashworth, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says the Fed is absolutely on hold. Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Laureate and Author of "People, Power and Profits," says the government has a role in progressive capitalism. Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives President & Founder, says it's not all sunshine and roses in corporate earnings. Paul Sankey, Mizuho Securities Oil & Gas Analyst and Managing Director, offers his insights on Occidental's purchase of Anadarko. Paul Smith, CFA Institute President & CEO, says we need to reattach finance to a sense of purpose.
Apr 24, 2019
Surveillance: I Don't Think Inflation Is Dead, Hatzius Says
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Jose Rasco, HSBC Chief Investment Strategist at HSBC Private Bank Americas, expects the Fed to remain on hold this year. Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist & Head of Global Economics and Markets Research, doesn't think inflation is dead. Dan Tannebaum, PwC United States Principal and Global Sanctions Leader, thinks it's unlikely that Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, predicts negative economic growth in 2020.
Apr 23, 2019
Surveillance: The U.S. Economy Is Strong, Rupkey Says
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Chris Rupkey, MUFG Union Bank Chief Financial Economist, says the U.S. economy is strong. Todd Mariano, Eurasia Group U.S. Director, discusses next steps in the Mueller investigation. Liz Young, BNY Mellon Investment Management Director of Market Strategy, expects earnings and U.S. growth to be heavier in the end of the year. Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, argues that in labor force terms, unemployment claims are at all time lows.
Apr 22, 2019
Surveillance: Justice Dept Highly Politicized, Valliere Says
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Taylor Riggs, Bloomberg News Reporter, discusses JPMorgan's succession plans. Michael Shaoul, Marketfield Asset Management Chairman, Portfolio Manager & CEO, doesn't think the Mueller report will have an impact on trade talks. Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Magazine Editor and Peter G. Peterson Chair, says Trump's foreign policy isn't sustainable or effective. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, says the justice department is a highly politicized agency.
Apr 18, 2019
Apple Settlement Validates Qualcomm's IP: Srinivasan
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Anand Srinivasan, Senior Semiconductor and Hardware Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on the Qualcomm-Apple settlement and what it means for chip stocks. Doug Duncan, Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, on the spring buying season, outlook for mortgage rates, and consumer attitudes on housing. Tuna Amobi, CFRA Research’s media and entertainment analyst, on Netflix and big media earnings. Jitendra Waral, Senior Analyst: Internet & Consumer Products for Bloomberg Intelligence, on Pinterest's IPO.
Apr 17, 2019
Surveillance: Europe Is The Catch Up Trade, Fowler Says
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Yalman Onaran, Bloomberg Senior Writer, analyzes Morgan Stanley's earnings report. Gerry Fowler, Aberdeen Standard Investments Multi-Asset Strategist, says Europe is the Catch-up trade. Simon Johnson, MIT Sloan School of Management Global Economics Professor, highlights the need of spreading opportunities out of the coastal cities. Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst of Media, thinks Netflix results show fairly significant pricing power. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO Head of Public Policy, doesn't expect to see a Democratic nominee until late spring or summer.
Apr 17, 2019
Surveillance: Notre Dame's Past & Future
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Mona Mahajan, Allianz Global Investors U.S. Investment Strategist, says banks doesn't thrive in a flattening yield curve environment. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy and Large Cap Bank Analyst, thinks that technology will complement, not substitute the human component on the banking sector. Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence Media Analyst, predicts Netflix and Disney will emerge as winners in the streaming sector. Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist, says 2% GDP growth is the new normal. Bloomberg's Bob Moon says Notre Dame has always managed to rise again.
Apr 16, 2019
Surveillance: Paying Tribute to Notre Dame
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The mood in Paris today is somber after a fire ripped through the Notre Dame Cathedral. The iconic structure took more than 200 years to build and just a few hours to burn. It's rich with history, serving as a setting to crown kings and celebrate the liberation of Paris from the Nazis. As French authorities assess the damage and craft plans to rebuild the monument, Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Bob Moon and Annmarie Hordern reflect on the moment.
Apr 16, 2019
Surveillance: Trump Doesn't Impact Powell, Bremmer Says
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Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President, says Fed Chairman Powell is a "capable, qualified and independent" chief. Fred Cannon, KBW Global Director of Research, will focus on net interest margins during this bank earnings season. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg Banking Reporter, talks banking and IPOs. Diane Swonk, Grant Thorton Chief Economist, says the Federal Reserve Board hasn't always been as strong as it is now.
Apr 15, 2019
Surveillance: JPMorgan Is Fairly Valued, Whalen Says
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Catherine Mann, Citi Global Chief Economist, and Lupin Rahman, PIMCO Head of EM Sovereign Credit, discuss China's latest economic data. Adam Posen, Peterson Institute President, says low interest rates in Europe are the scariest development in bond markets he has ever seen. Chris Whalen, RC Whalen Global Advisers, thinks JPMorgan is fairly valued. Adrienne Elrod, Democratic Strategist & Clinton 2016 Campaign Director of Strategic Communications, says Bernie Sanders is the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Apr 12, 2019
Surveillance: I Want Openness & Sunlight On The Fed, Moore Says
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Troy Gayeski, Skybridge Capital Partner & Senior Portfolio Management, sees a higher probability of a Fed cut than a hike. Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley Head of Banks & Diversified Finance Research, expects weak numbers in this banks earnings season. Bill Lee, Milken Institute Chief Economist, says that Europe is the last place he would invest. Stephen Moore, Heritage Foundation Distinguished Visiting Fellow, wants "openness and sunlight on the Fed" if he joined the board. Representative Debbie Dingell, Democrat from Michigan, points out the lack of a regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles in the U.S.
Apr 11, 2019
Surveillance: "Wait And See" Mode After Draghi, Coronado Says
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Julian Emanuel, BTIG Chief Equity & Derivatives Strategist, expects two Fed rate cuts and stocks to go higher in 2019. Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Head of FX and Macro Trading Strategy, thinks the Euro will move to the downside. Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives Founder, thinks markets were not expecting Draghi to deliver a lot-and he didn't. Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities Senior Analyst, says it's time to increase the effectiveness of bank regulations.
Apr 10, 2019
Surveillance: Tech Is Keeping Inflation Muted, Rosner Says
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Drew Matus, Metlife Investment Management Chief Market Strategist, says it's very difficult to drive the U.S. into a recession from overseas. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, thinks protecting NAFTA is the main priority of the business community. Laura Rosner, Macropolicy Perspectives Senior Economist, says technology is keeping inflation muted. Martin Indyk, Council on Foreign Relations Distinguished Fellow & Former Ambassador to Israel, says whoever wins the Israeli elections will need a coalition with small parties to govern. Sarah McGregor, Bloomberg U.S. Economic Policy Team Leader, says the silver lining in the IMF report is that it highlights that things will potentially improve in the second half of next year.
Apr 09, 2019
Surveillance: NATO Is A Transatlantic Bridge With Stavridis
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Vasileios Gkionakis, Banque Lombard Odier Global Head of FX Strategy, says the Fed has maintained its full independence. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says the dollar is behaving as a safe heaven. Admiral James Stavridis, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, says it's good value for the U.S. to stay in NATO. Roland Rudd, Finsbury Public Relations Founder and Chairman of Business for News, says recently, Parliament has reaffirmed its authority.
Apr 09, 2019
Surveillance: Everyone Is Scrambling For Yield, Michele Says
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Davide Serra, Algebris Investments CEO, says there are too many banks in Europe. Ebrahim Rahbari, Citi Global Head of FX Analysis, doesn't think this is a "dollar-sell" environment. Catherine Barnard, Cambridge University Professor, believes it would have been smart to have cross-party discussions since the Brexit referendum. Bob Michele, JP Morgan Chief Investment Officer, sees everyone scrambling for yield right now.
Apr 08, 2019
Surveillance Special: Views From The Ambrosetti Spring Workshop
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Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua host from the Ambrosetti Spring Workshop in Cernobbio, Italy. In this episode, we feature our TV & Radio interviews with: Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz Chief Economic Adviser & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, Laurence Boone, OECD Chief Economist, Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates CEO, Jacob Frenkel, JPMorgan Chase International Chairman, Luigi Zingales, Chicago Booth School Professor, and Jim O'Neill, Chatham House Chair.
Apr 05, 2019
Surveillance: U.S. Economy Really Coming Back, Kudlow Says
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Jim Glassman, JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking Head Economist, does not think wage growth is translating into inflation. Mike Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, sees solid job growth without signs of overheating. Larry Kudlow, U.S. National Economic Council Director, says the U.S. economy is "really coming back." Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO U.S. Economist, highlights the improvements in labor market participation.
Apr 05, 2019
Surveillance: We Must Take The Yield Curve Seriously, Fels Says
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Joachim Fels, PIMCO Global Economic Advisor, says the yield curve predicts and also causes recessions. Derek Halpenny, MUFG European Head of Global Markets Research, says central banks have a significant appetite for the Euro. Kristina Hooper, Invesco Chief Global Market Strategist, considers it hyperbolic to say we are going into an earnings recession. Brian Deese, BlackRock Global Head of Sustainable Investing, talks climate change and risks to investors.
Apr 04, 2019
Surveillance: U.S. Treasuries Look Cheap Globally, Major Says
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Steven Major, HSBC Global Head of FI Research, thinks U.S. bonds look cheap globally.  Emma Ross-Thomas, Bloomberg Brexit Editor, updates us on Parliament's plans to avoid a no-deal Brexit. David Page, AXA Investment Managers Senior Economist U.S. & U.K., expects some euro appreciation. Jim Paulsen, The Leuthold Group Chief Investment Strategist, thinks this is a good environment for stocks.
Apr 02, 2019
Surveillance: FX Market Has Become Very Political, Bloom Says
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Lord Andrew Adonis, Former U.K. Secretary of State For Transport, speaks in favor of a second referendum. David Bloom, HSBC Global Head of FX Strategy, says the FX market has become very political. Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management Global CIO & Head Of Global Fixed Income, thinks the Fed is holding rates for the next two years. Sarah House, Wells Fargo Senior Economist, foresees U.S. growth bouncing back in the coming months. And Matt Hornbach, Morgan Stanley Global Head of Interest Rate Strategy, says he's currently neutral on the bond market.
Apr 01, 2019
Surveillance: I'm Not A Buy And Hold Advocate, Shiller Says
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Chris Verrone, Strategas Partner & Head of Technical Strategy, thinks sentiment is too extreme with the long bond call. Robert Shiller, Yale Professor, says he is not a buy and hold advocate. Catherine Barnard, Cambridge University Professor & 'The UK in a Changing Europe' Sr. Fellow, says there are parties within parties in U.K. Parliament. Logan D. Green and John Zimmer, Lyft Inc Co-Founders, see a shift from the car ownership to the sharing model.
Mar 29, 2019
Surveillance: Monetary Policy Tools Are Ineffective, Kelly Says
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David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, says monetary policy tools are ineffective. Frances Donald, Manulife Asset Management Head of Macroeconomic Strategy, expects a recession in 2020. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, is cautious about EM. Max Nisen, Bloomberg Opinion Healthcare Columnist, says 20 million people would lose coverage if Obamacare is struck down.
Mar 28, 2019
Surveillance: Investing in Lyft With NYU’s Segram (Correct)
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Luigi Zingales, University of Chicago Booth School Finance Professor, talks bank mergers and the benefits of being "too big to fail." Haran Segram, NYU Leonard N. Stern School of Business Professor, says Lyft investors are paying for the future instead of the current state of affairs of the company. Brooke Sutherland, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, talks about the latest developments in the Boeing investigation. (Corrects to remove segment on Chatham Asset Management)
Mar 27, 2019
Surveillance: Equality in Hollywood With Giese
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Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist, says commodity prices are too volatile a measure to use to judge the economy. Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Rates Strategy, says interest rates have some room to raise. Maria Giese, Feature Film Director, Activist & TEDx Speaker, “The Battle for Women’s Voices in Entertainment Media," says equal employment laws in Hollywood lack enforcement. Paul Sankey, Mizuho Americas Oil & Gas Analyst & Managing Director, notes Saudi Arabia is discussing a price range for oil. Ida Liu, Citi Private Bank Senior Private Banker, says many of her clients are interested in gender lens investing.
Mar 27, 2019
Surveillance: Global Economic Data Will Hold Up, Hooper Says
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David Folkerts-Landau, Deutsche Bank Head of Research and Group Chief Economist, says Europe needs a unified banking system. Bloomberg's Anna Edwards discusses the U.K. Parliament's next steps. Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs Global Head of Commodities Research, says there's slower demand for copper and other base metals in China. Kristina Hooper, Invesco Chief Global Market Strategist, expects global economic data to hold up.
Mar 26, 2019
Surveillance: New Political Focus After Mueller, Hormats Says
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Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO Market Strategist & Portfolio Manager, says it's not improbable that interest rates will stay low until 2030. Robert Hormats, Kissinger Associates Vice-Chair, thinks U.S. political focus will shift following the release of the Mueller's report. Mary Lovely, Peterson Institute for International Economics Senior Fellow & Syracuse University Professor, discusses the pressures that Xi Jinping confronts domestically. Doug Thornell, Former DNC Senior Adviser, says Democrats should keep the focus on kitchen table issues.
Mar 25, 2019
Surveillance: Dynamic Ownership With RTR's Hyman
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Greg Daco, Oxford Economics Chief U.S. Economist, doesn't see much momentum upward for yields going forward. Antony Phillipson, British Consul General for the U.S., says there's no more important trade partnership for the U.K. than the one it has with North America. Jenn Hyman, Rent The Runway CEO, says her company is more often linked with the sharing economy than retail. Margaret Brennan, CBS Face the Nation Host, expects the U.S. and China negotiations to focus on the details of goods trading rather than China's business practices.
Mar 22, 2019
Surveillance: The Economy Is Shifting Gears, Piegza Says
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Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, says although the business community want tariffs to end, D.C. politicians are comfortable with them. Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Chief U.S. Interest Rates Strategist, and Jeanna Smialek, Bloomberg Economy Reporter, highlight the Fed's cautiousness. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, thinks the economy is shifting gears but it's at a very early stage. Francine Lacqua, Bloomberg Surveillance Anchor, updates us on Brexit talks from Brussels at the European Leaders Summit.
Mar 21, 2019
Surveillance: Defaults Are A Necessary Evil, Kong Says
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Kate Moore, BlackRock Investment Institute Chief Equity Strategist, says the opportunity in equities is on quality. Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Economics Chief U.S. Economist, and Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics & Policy Correspondent, share their expectations for today's Fed meeting. Theresa Kong, Matthews Asia Head of Fixed Income & Portfolio Manager, says Chinese defaults will slowly increase but they are a necessary evil. Therese Raphael, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says the option of a no-deal Brexit is still on the table at the end of June.
Mar 20, 2019
Surveillance: Alan Krueger's Economic Legacy
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Remembering Princeton University's Alan Krueger with Dartmouth Professor of Economics Danny Blanchflower, Bloomberg International Economics & Policy Correspondent Michael McKee, University of Michigan Associate Professor for Public Policy & Former U.S. Department of Labor Chief Economist Betsey Stevenson, and Bloomberg Businessweek Economics Editor Peter Coy.
Mar 19, 2019
Surveillance: This AI Cycle Is Different, NYU's Dhar Says
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Jerome Schneider, PIMCO Head of Short-Term Bond Portfolios, says investors must calibrate expectations taking into account higher volatility. Brian Wieser, GroupM Global President of Business Intelligence, talks the future of the ad industry. Vasant Dhar, NYU Stern Professor, explains why this AI cycle is different. Viviana Hurtado, Bloomberg Reporter, details exciting new developments from New York City's new Hudson Yards. Barry Strauss, Cornell Professor of History, discusses his book "Ten Caesars" on the Ides of March.
Mar 15, 2019
Surveillance: U.K. Unprepared For No-Deal Brexit, Dimon Says
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Steve Eisman, Neuberger Berman Senior Portfolio Manager, discusses his three U.K. bank shorts. Patricia Mosser, Columbia University Economic Policy Management Program Director, says China and Europe are slowing the U.S. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chairman and CEO, says trade imbalances could cause a financial recession. David Rubenstein, The Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Executive Chairman, says there's no evidence that going to elite schools will make children do better in life. Ambassador William J. Burns, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace President, discusses his new book "The Back Channel: A Memoir of American Diplomacy and the Case for Its Renewal."
Mar 14, 2019
Surveillance: EM Valuations Are Very Cheap, Memani Says
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Raghuram Rajan, Former RBI Governor and University of Chicago Booth School of Business, says the college admissions scandal is a "blow to the system". Brian Levitt, OppenheimerFunds Senior Investment Strategist, says he is starting to see stabilization in Chinese growth. Krishna Memani, OppenheimerFunds CIO, says EM investing is about companies rather than geographies. Laura Francis, Bloomberg Law Senior Legal Editor, says it's highly unlikely that the budget bill passes Congress. Christina Boris, OppenheimerFunds Client Research Head, says most of their clients are focused on long term investment.
Mar 13, 2019
Surveillance: RBC Open To Tactical Acquisitions, McKay Says
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Dave McKay, RBC President & CEO, says the company is open to "tactical" acquisitions. Howard Ward, Gabelli Funds CIO of Growth Equities, believes that orders of the Boeing 737 MAX 8 will remain intact.  Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says wage growth came too little and too late. Christopher Jasper, Bloomberg European Transportation Deputy Team Leader, explains the differences between the Boeing 737 MAX 8 and previous models.
Mar 12, 2019
Surveillance: Trade Spat Impact Is Overstated, Weinberger Says
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Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist, doesn't think the trade spat is directly behind China's slow economic growth. Nick Lardy, Peterson Institute for International Economics Senior Fellow, highlights that consumption is now the major source of growth in China. Chris Bryant, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says it's unclear if the cause of the Ethiopian crash was a Boeing design flaw. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, doubts that fair trade will be negotiated between the U.S. and China.
Mar 11, 2019
Surveillance: Household Survey Was Up, Kudlow Notes
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Lawrence Kudlow, White House National Economic Council Director, joins Jonathan Ferro to discuss this month's surprising jobs report.
Mar 08, 2019
Surveillance: Labor Force Growth Is Slowing, Joseph Cohen Says
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To celebrate International Women's Day, Bloomberg Surveillance brings you top voices in the worlds of finance, economics and international affairs. Mona Mahajan, Allianz Global Investors Director & U.S. Investment Strategist, says at some point, Europe could become interesting from a dividend perspective. Kathy Jones, Schwab Center for Financial Research Chief Fixed Income Strategist, expects 10-year Treasury yields to go below 2.5%. Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives President & Founder, says service sector dynamics can be resilient in the next global slowdown. Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs Advisory Director & Senior Investment Strategist, says women remain "dramatically underrepresented" in universities. And Elaine Kamarck, Brookings Senior Fellow, discusses candidates in the presidential race.
Mar 08, 2019
Surveillance: The EU Needs A Weaker Euro, Rosenberg Says
1720
David Rosenberg, Gluskin Scheff Chief Economist & Strategist, says the EU needs a weaker euro to stimulate the manufacturing sector. Bill Lee, Milken Chief Economist, says global equity markets would crash if President Trump walked away from a deal with China. David Owen, Jefferies International Chief European Financial Economist, talks the challenges of the "large and fragmented" EU banking sector. Louise Yamada, Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors, feels more constructive about gold.
Mar 07, 2019
Surveillance: Fed Tightening May Be Back In 2019, Dudley Says
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Vince Cable, U.K. Liberal Democrat Party Leader, says India will overtake China. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Global Co-Head of FX Strategy, says the ECB has its hands tied.  William Dudley, Princeton Senior Research Scholar & Former Federal Reserve Bank Of New York President, thinks Fed tightening might be on the table in the second half of 2019. Sarah House, Wells Fargo Securities Senior Economist, notes financial conditions are the easiest since last October. Saleha Mohsin, Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Department Reporter, says markets and China want a deescalation of tariffs.
Mar 06, 2019
Surveillance Special: China's Economic Slowdown
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Elizabeth Economy, CFR Senior Fellow & Director for Asia Studies, says there's a sense of political malaise in China. David Ingles, Bloomberg Markets Reporter, joins us from Beijing to report on China's lowering of its growth target. Marianne Petsing-Schneider, Chatham House U.S. Geo-Economics Fellow for U.S. and the Americas Programme, says the U.S. is now in a stronger negotiating position for trade talks with China. Daniel Katzive, BNP Head of FX Strategy North America, says the renminbi is increasingly more market determined. Steve Wieting, Global Chief Investment Strategist, discusses China's moves to reinvigorate its economy.
Mar 05, 2019
Surveillance: Europe Remains Our Weak Sister, Chandler Says
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Russ Koesterich, BlackRock Global Allocation Team Portfolio Manager, is concerned about companies with business models dependent on a growing economy. Liz Young, BNY Mellon Investment Management Director of Market Strategy, thinks we have overdone this rally "a little bit." Liz McCormick, Bloomberg News FX & Bonds Reporter, discusses modern monetary theory. Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex Chief Market Strategist & Managing Partner, says Europe remains the weak sister. Haran Segram, NYU Leonard N. Stern School of Business Professor, breaks down how he valuates a tech company.
Mar 04, 2019
Surveillance: The Fed Is Probably Not Done Hiking, Dudley Says
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Willam Dudley, Former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President, thinks the Fed is probably not done yet with hiking. Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Interest-Rates Strategy, recommends to keep duration risk light. Shira Ovide, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, doesn't think there is a do-over in Amazon coming to New York City. Bill Gross, Janus Capital Management Fund Manager, tells Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker how having Asperger's syndrome has helped him in his career.
Mar 01, 2019
Surveillance: Far From Denuclearization, Collins Says
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Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg TV & Radio Chief Washington Correspondent, brings us an update from Hanoi. Chris Grisanti, Grisanti Capital Management CEO, says for growth, China needs stimulus and a trade deal. Lisa Collins, Center for Strategic & International Studies Fellow, highlights the challenges ahead for Kim Jong Un as he aims to open up his country. Katherine Moon, Wellesley College Professor of Political Science & Brookings Institution Nonresident Senior Fellow, thinks the Hanoi summit was not a failure but it was constructive. And Alejandro Werner, IMF Monetary Fund Director of the Western Hemisphere Department, updates us on the economic situation in Venezuela. ------
Feb 28, 2019
Surveillance: Solving The Nuclear Problem With Adm. Stavridis
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Todd Mariano, Eurasia Group U.S. Director, and Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Head of FX & Macro Trading Strategy, discuss their expectations for the Trump and Kim summit. Iain Marlow, Bloomberg South Asia Government Reporter, says India is unlikely to engage in talks with Pakistan. Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Economics Chief U.S. Economist, and Jeanna Smialek, Bloomberg Fed Reporter, update us on what to look for in Powell's second day of testimony. James Stavridis, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, Carlyle Group Advisor & Former Supreme Allied Commander at NATO, says the chances of Kim Jong Un giving up his nuclear weapons are equal to [as slim as] Mexico paying for the wall. And June Grasso, Bloomberg Radio Host, says "fasten your seat belts" for Michael Cohen's hearing today.
Feb 27, 2019
Surveillance: My View Of Capitalism Is Localism, Rajan Says
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Raghuram Rajan, Author of "The Third Pillar" and Former Reserve Bank of India Governor, advocates for pushing decision making back to the local level. Julian Emanuel, BTIG Chief Equity and Derivatives Strategist, wants a break in the rally because we could get a performance chase. Diane Swonk, Grant Thorton Chief Economist, says there is a blind faith in China's ability to provide growth and command. Taylor Riggs, Bloomberg News Reporter, brings us an update from the JPMorgan Investor Day.
Feb 26, 2019
Surveillance: EM Could Outperform DM, Greg Boutle Says
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Greg Boutle, BNP Paribas U.S. Head of Equity and Derivative Strategy, explains the confluence of factors that could lead EM to outperform DM. Karen Ubelhart, Bloomberg Intelligence Industrials Analyst, says selling Danaher solves a big chunk of GE's debt problem. Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives President & Founder, expects another flattening of the dot plot in the March Fed's meeting. Jean Case, "Be Fearless" Author, talks the role of failure in success stories.
Feb 25, 2019
Surveillance: Not Trade War But Tech Theft, Feldstein says
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Marty Feldstein, Harvard University Professor of Economics, says China is focused on trade deficits to divert from trade theft. Tara LaChapelle, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, blames Kraft Heinz's fall on the company's short-sighted strategy. Kathy Jones, Schwab Center for Financial Research Chief Fixed Income Strategist, says we're still not clear about what the Fed is doing. Anne Mathias, Vanguard Group Senior Strategist of Global Rates & FX, says trade disputes are a proxy for worries about global growth. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO, Founder & Chief Research Officer, says next week, investors will focus on inventory levels at department stores.
Feb 22, 2019
Surveillance: The Equity Market Can Rally, Calvasina Says
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Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist, says Chinese numbers are more stable than ours [in the U.S.]. John Micklethwait, Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief, discusses his latest piece on the end of the Anglosphere, the global influence of the U.S. and Britain. Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter Editor, says we are still in a bull market. Lori Calvasina, RBC Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, thinks there is still "a little bit of room" in equity markets.
Feb 21, 2019
Surveillance: We Will See More Volatility, Warne Says
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Andreas Utermann, Allianz Global Investors CEO, and David Herro, Harris Associates CIO of International Equities, debate active and passive investment. Philippe Reines, Former Hillary Clinton Adviser, says Republicans are now less focused on social values and more on economics. Mark Connors, Credit Suisse Managing Director and Global Head of Portfolio & Risk Advisory, discusses upcoming challenges for hedge funds. Kate Warne, Edward Jones Investment Strategist, sees more investment opportunities outside of the U.S.
Feb 20, 2019
Surveillance: Nothing As Cheap As European Stocks, Kelly Says
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Ruchir Sharma, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Chief Global Strategist & "Democracy on the Road" Author, discusses India's sociopolitical landscape. David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, says "nothing in the world" is as cheap as European stocks in terms of risk assets. Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg's Chief Washington Correspondent, thinks Bernie Sanders is front runner for the 2020 election. Sarah Halzack, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, remembers Chanel's Karl Lagerfeld as a "taste maker." Jim Suva, Citi Managing Director, joins us to talk tech.
Feb 19, 2019
Surveillance: EM Story Isn't Overplayed, Santos Says
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Gabriela Santos, JPM Asset Management Global Market Strategist, doesn't think the EM story is overplayed. Bipan Rai, CIBC Head of North American Foreign-Exchange Strategy, thinks the dollar is overvalued 12% to 15%. Isaac Boltansky, Compass Point Director of Policy Research, highlights that both China and the U.S. are incentivized to continue negotiations. Amaka Anku, Eurasia Group Practice Head of Africa, says no candidate in the Nigerian elections is tackling the problem of revenue generation.
Feb 15, 2019
Surveillance Special: David Herro On Patience & Investment
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David Herro, Harris Associates CIO of International Equities, highlights the importance of patience in investing, especially in periods like last year when certain sectors got highly devalued. He also discusses the merger of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank and how he expects this to help European banks from a price perspective.
Feb 14, 2019
Surveillance: Quite Muted Growth In 2019, Marangi Says
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Chris Marangi, Gabelli Funds Co-Chief Investment Officer, says growth will be quite muted in 2019. Carolynn Look, Bloomberg Economy & ECB Reporter, says fundamentals are still strong in Europe. Matt Freund, Calamos Advisors Head of Fixed Income Strategies & Co-CIO, says it is not just one bond market but a market of bonds. Mona Mahajan, Allianz U.S. Investment Strategist, says the December pullback had to do with U.S. recession fears.
Feb 14, 2019
Surveillance: U.S.-China, A New Cold War, Buiter Says
1515
Willem Buiter, Citi Special Economic Adviser, says the trade relationship between the U.S. and China is part of a wider new Cold War. George Goncalves, Nomura Securities Managing Director & Head of Americas Fixed Income Strategy, thinks the bond market is nervous about a downturn. Laura Davison, Bloomberg Tax Reporter, says only Democrats in the North East are addressing the new limit on federal deductions for state and local tax payments. Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, sees a greater risk of an earnings recession than an economic recession.
Feb 13, 2019
Surveillance: Risks of Silly Leftism & Silly Rightism With Rose
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Marilyn Watson, BlackRock Head of Global Fundamental Fixed Income Strategy, and Edmund Shing, BNP Paribas Global Head of Equity & Derivatives Strategy, discuss dollar strength. Bill Lee, Milken Institute Chief Economist, says economic dynamism lessens social problems. Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Magazine Editor, says social democracy is the price of avoiding socialism. Austan Goolsbee, University of Chicago's Booth School of Business Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics, reflects on U.S.-China relations.
Feb 12, 2019
Surveillance: The U.S. Cannot Escape Global Slowdown, Mann Says
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Angel Gurria, OECD Secretary General, says he is not predicting a recession. Catherine Mann, Citi Research Global Chief Economist, says even the U.S. cannot escape the global slowdown. Gary Shilling, A. Gary Shilling President, says strong economic growth brings income polarization. Miranda Carr, Haitong International China Macro Strategist, says nobody is expecting a final deal between the U.S. and China by March 1.
Feb 11, 2019
Surveillance: Bond Guys Tend To Have It Right, Bailin Says
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David Bailin, Citi Private Bank Global Head of Investments, says bond guys tend to have it right. Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments Chief Global Strategist, thinks the Republicans are less divided than the Democrats. David Stubbs, JPMorgan Global Market Strategist, says the U.S. economy will slow significantly in 2020. Margaret Brennan, Face the Nation Host, says President Trump remains very confident on his convictions despite being embattled.
Feb 08, 2019
Surveillance: Nominee Malpass's Vision For The World Bank
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Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics President, says the BOE's Monetary Policy Committee members have much more independence than the members of the FOMC. Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth College Professor of Economics, says it is tough days to be a forecaster at the BOE's MPC. David Malpass, World Bank President Nominee, is optimistic that more progress can be made on extreme poverty. Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, says fair value for the S&P is still a big higher than current levels.
Feb 07, 2019
Surveillance Special: State Of The Union Address
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Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg News Chief Washington TV & Radio Correspondent, shares his takeaways from Pres. Trump's second State of the Union address. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R-Tennessee), says Trump is exceedingly popular in his district. James Stavridis, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, discusses U.S. foreign policy under the current administration. Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives President & Founder, brings us an update on U.S. markets and the Fed. Cheryl Bolen, Bloomberg Government White House Reporter, says Stacey Abrams discussed many of the same themes as the SOTU in her Democratic response.
Feb 06, 2019
Surveillance: Trump Has Remade The Republican Party, Haass Says
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Gene Frieda, PIMCO Global Strategist, and Therese Raphael, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, discuss why markets don't price in the scenario of a no-Brexit. Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President, says Trump has remade the Republican party. Brian Jacobsen, Wells Capital Management Chief Portfolio Strategist, says one of the cardinal rules of successful investment is diversification and patience. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, expects the spend line of Disney to ramp up, causing the share price to stumble.
Feb 05, 2019
Surveillance Exclusive: Bill Gross On His Retirement
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In an exclusive interview with Tom Keene, Bill Gross announces his retirement and reveals his plans for the future.
Feb 04, 2019
Surveillance: Fed in Extended Pause, Kasman Says
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Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist & Managing Director of Global, notes that the Fed seems to be in an extended pause. Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse Securities Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, doesn't see the U.S. going into recession. Margaret Brennan, Face the Nation Host, previews her interview with President Trump. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says price momentum makes people feel more bullish.
Feb 01, 2019
Surveillance: Not Much Inflation In The Fed Data, Kantor Says
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Charles Kantor, Neuberger Berman Long Short Fund Senior Portfolio Manager, says there's not a lot of inflation in the Fed data due to the impact of technology and globalization. Mary Lovely, Peterson Institute Senior Fellow, emphasizes that there is a will to get something done between the U.S. and China. Rich Greenfield, BTIG Technology, Media & Telecom Analyst, believes that Instagram will be a bigger business than Facebook in totality long-term. Chuck Leavell, Musician and Mother Nature Network Co-Founder, shares his experience working with music legends.
Jan 31, 2019
Surveillance: Fed Will Emphasize Patience, Kroszner Says
1991
Anna Edwards, Bloomberg News Anchor, gives us an update on Brexit negotiations. Stephen Stanley, Amherst Pierpont Chief Economist, says markets are still talking about recession. Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Professor & Former Fed Governor, discusses whether the tight labor market could lead to inflation. Deborah Lehr, Paulson Institute Vice Chairman, expects some kind of framework trade deal between the U.S. and China. Al Broaddus, Former Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President, says Former Fed officials Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen did a great job handling the 2008 financial crisis.
Jan 30, 2019
Surveillance: Brexit Is Bad News For NATO, Stavridis Says
1946
Troy Gayeski, SkyBridge Capital Partner, says the U.S. economy is the most isolated from other markets. Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs Head of Commodities Research, favors oil out of the cyclical commodities. Will Power, Baird Senior Research Analyst, says Apple can capitalize on the 1.4 billion active devices they have globally. Julia Coronado, President & Founder of Macropolicy Perspectives, says she will focus on balance sheet comments in tomorrow's Fed meeting. And Admiral James Stavridis, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, says Brexit is bad news for NATO.
Jan 29, 2019
Surveillance: Markets Aren't Telling Anything, Dwyer Says
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Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity Chief Market Strategist, is more focused on the Fed than on trade tensions. Stewart Patrick, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow, doesn't see a new global hegemon on the horizon. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, expects data to confirm that in the fourth quarter, we were in solid footing. Dean Curnutt, Macro Risk Advisors CEO, says current volatility comes from a mix of both micro and macro trends.
Jan 28, 2019
Surveillance: Oil Not A Story Anymore For Russia, Oreshkin Says
1986
Marty Schenker, Bloomberg Chief Content Officer, says the indictment of Roger Stone is not related to the crime but the cover-up. Maxim Oreshkin, Russia's Economy Minister, says oil is not a story for Russia anymore. Ricardo Hausmann, Harvard's Kennedy School of Government Professor, says Venezuela's Juan Guaido has massive support. Shannon O'Neil, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies, says we should be watching what happens with the protests in Venezuela.
Jan 25, 2019
Surveillance: VW CEO Diess Still Optimistic About Trade
2635
Herbert Diess, Volkswagen CEO, is optimistic about trade. Jason Bordoff, Columbia University Professor and Former Special Assistant to President Obama, says we need to move much faster to a clean energy transition. Nadia Calviño Santamaría, Spanish Economy Minister, says the Spanish economy will grow above the EU average in 2019. Mark Rutte, Netherlands Prime Minister, says the economy has to deliver to the people. Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, warns that Russia is not complying with the INF Treaty.
Jan 24, 2019
Surveillance: Global Growth At Center Stage In Davos Day Two
2073
Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director, ranks trade tensions as the top risk for the global economy. Brian Moynihan, Bank of America CEO, says economic data in December were strong enough for a rate rise. Stephen Pagliuca, Bain Capital Co-Chairman, thinks the key in this private equity environment is to be selective. Scott Minerd, Guggenheim CIO, explains the impact of ETFs becoming a bigger player in markets.
Jan 23, 2019
Surveillance: Europe Better Off Without the Euro, Bootle Says
1841
John Normand, JPMorgan Head of Cross-Asset Fundamental Strategy, Morris Reid, Mercury LLC Partner, and Tony Gardner, Former U.S. Ambassador to the EU, discuss their expectations for the World Economic Forum starting Monday in Davos. Julian Emanuel, BTIG Chief Equity & Derivatives Strategist, expects favorable news regarding an easing of sanctions to Chinese imports. Pippa Malmgren, H Robotics Co-Founder & Former U.S. Presidential Advisor to President George W. Bush, shares her optimist outlook for the world economy. Roger Bootle, Capital Economics Founder & Chairman, says Europe would be better off without the euro.
Jan 23, 2019
Surveillance: World Economic Forum in Davos Kicks Off
2529
Laura Cha, Hong Kong Exchange Chair, says there's a lot the Chinese government can do in opening up the financial market. Mohammed Barkindo, OPEC Secretary General, says the Organization is transparent as a fishbowl. Arne Sorenson, Marriott International CEO, thinks Democrats and Republicans ought to arrive at a consensus on immigration. Amin Nasser, Saudi Aramco CEO, says the company is in discussions to acquire 70% of SABIC. George Osborne, London Evening Standard Editor and Former Chancellor of the Exchequer, thinks it's not acceptable for the U.K. to leave the EU without a deal.
Jan 22, 2019
Surveillance: The Phillips Curve Is Still In Play, Posen Says
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Arthur Levitt, Former SEC Chairman, remembers John Bogle's legacy. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy & Senior Currency Analyst, says the  fundamentals of both the euro and the dollar are deteriorating. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy & Large Cap Bank Analyst, talks how U.S. banks were forced to become bank holding companies after the crisis. Simon French, Panmure Gordon Chief Economist, compares the economic outlook in the U.S. and Europe. Adam Posen, PIIE President and former member of BOE Monetary Policy Committee, says the Phillips curve is definitely still in play.
Jan 17, 2019
Surveillance: Cameron Landed Us In This Mess, Skidelsky Says
2045
Charles Peabody, Portales Partners LLC President, recaps U.S. bank earnings with us. Lord Robert Skidelsky, House of Lords Member, says David Cameron landed the U.K. in the Brexit mess without adequate preparation. Chuck Robbins, Cisco Chairman and CEO, says the migration to cloud is driving their growth. Baroness Helena Kennedy, House of Lords Member, says the DUP have Theresa May "by the tail" over the Northern Ireland border agreement.
Jan 16, 2019
Surveillance: Shutdown Won't Impact Economy, Taylor Says
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Sonali Basak, Bloomberg Investment Banking Reporter, joins us to break JPMorgan's earnings. Brian Levitt, Oppenheimer Funds Senior Investment Strategist, says the U.S. is slowing back to trend. Ken Leon, CFRA Global Director of Research, says to be cautious on banks. Victoria Hewson, Institute of Economic Affairs' International Trade & Competition Unit Senior Counsel, discusses trade scenarios under Brexit. John B. Taylor, Stanford University Professor of Economics, does not think the government shutdown will impact the economy.
Jan 15, 2019
Surveillance: Brexit Is A Stagflation Event, Weinberg Says
2002
Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist, says Brexit is a stagflation event. Fred Cannon, KBW Global Director of Research, previews the U.S. bank earnings coming up this week. Leslie Vinjamuri, Chatham House Head of U.S. & Americas Programme, thinks Republicans will have to present the President with a plan to break the gridlock. John Butler, Bloomberg Intelligence TMT Team Leader, discusses Apple music versus Spotify.
Jan 14, 2019
Surveillance: Still More Work To Do, GM's Barra Says
2136
John Ryding, RDQ Economics Chief Economist & Founding Partner, says the U.S. is in a stronger place than it was several years ago despite what is going on inside the Beltway. Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank Chief Economist, says we need more training for those who lose their jobs to trade and technology. Mary Barra, General Motors Chairman & CEO, foresees a healthy U.S. market for GM. Laurence Ball, Johns Hopkins University Professor of Economics & Department Chair and Author of "The Fed and Lehman Brothers", critiques how central bankers have discussed the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.
Jan 11, 2019
Surveillance: Recession Likelihood with Bandholz & Kiesel
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Mark Kiesel, PIMCO CIO of Credit, thinks markets have overestimated the likelihood of a recession while Harm Bandholz, Unicredit Bank Chief U.S. Economist thinks the U.S. could see a recession in 2020. Miranda Carr, Haitong International Senior Macro Strategist & Senior Analyst, doesn't see China's latest inflation numbers as reflective of a huge slump in all of its upstream pricing. Chris Bryant, Bloomberg Opinion Industrials Columnist, believes recent cuts at Ford & Jaguar Land Rover are just the start for the automotive industry.
Jan 10, 2019
Surveillance: A Fed Minutes Preview With Vincent Reinhart
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Vincent Reinhart, Mellon Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, discusses what's he's looking to in the Fed Minutes. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) says the President's border wall is a 14th century solution to a 21st century problem. John Brabender, Brabenderbox Chief Creative Officer & Republican Strategist, discusses fractures in the GOP. Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley Global Head of Banks and Diversified Financials Research, says she has her eye on big bank buybacks. ------
Jan 09, 2019
Surveillance: A New Era In The U.S.-China Relationship
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Chris Verrone, Strategas Partner & Head of Technical Strategy, says there's a dichotomy between global and domestic tech. Michael Hirson, Eurasia Group Director of Asia, discusses China's slowdown and what it could mean for trade talks with the U.S. Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex Chief Market Strategist, foresees the dollar weakening. Taylor Riggs, Bloomberg News Correspondent, brings us an update from the JPMorgan Healthcare conference in San Francisco.
Jan 08, 2019
Surveillance: Top Risks 2019 With Eurasia Group
1994
Bloomberg Surveillance is on location at Eurasia Group today. Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President, defines "innovation winter." Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Rates Strategy, says several forward-looking economic measures are concerning. Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Group Head of Research Strategy & Operations, discusses market volatility in relation to U.S. politics. Sallie Krawcheck, Ellevest CEO & Co-Founder, discusses the gender gap in retirement investing.
Jan 07, 2019
Surveillance: No Recession In Sight, Kudlow Says
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Jim Glassman, JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking Head Economist, says growth for the working age population has slowed dramatically. Miranda Carr, Haitong International China Macro Strategist, says further liquidity is needed in China for its infrastructure projects. Alan Krueger, Princeton University Professor of Economics, and Mike Darda, MKM Holdings Chief Economist & Chief Market Strategist, join us for instant reaction to the U.S. jobs number (312k). Larry Kudlow, White House National Economic Council Director, says there is no recession in sight.
Jan 04, 2019
Surveillance: Fed's Kaplan Advocates For Taking No Action
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Freya Beamish, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Asia Economist, says the Chinese economy is much weaker than the official headlines show. Walter Piecyk, BTIG Telecom, Wireless and Communication Equipment Analyst, says Apple's lowering of revenue estimates is a major sign of economic issues in China. Robert Kaplan, Federal Reserve of Dallas President, thinks the Fed should not take any further action on interest rates. Admiral James Stavridis, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, argues that the U.S. has to remain engaged in the Pacific. Asthika Goonerwardene, Bloomberg Intelligence Biotech & Pharma Analyst, says Bristol's bid for Celgene is a financial transaction to buy cash flows.
Jan 03, 2019
Surveillance: Financial Conditions Do Matter, Crescenzi Says
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Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO Market Strategist & Portfolio Manager, believes there is a strong case for the Fed to pause. Freya Beamish, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Asia Economist, expects a deeper deterioration of the Chinese economy before the stimulus comes through. Dana Peterson, Citigroup Economist, highlights the importance of the January Fed meeting. Oscar Decotelli, DXA Investments CEO, says the Brazilian elite seem to be positive about the country's new President Jair Bolsonaro.
Jan 02, 2019
Surveillance: Happy 2019 For CPTPP Countries, Sumpter Says
2225
Brett Ryan, Deutsche Bank Senior Economist, expects 3 rate hikes and 2.4% economic growth next year. Bob Profusek, Jones Day Global Chair of M&A, says M&A are driven by technology and globalization not by credit markets. Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Research Strategy & Operations Head, says the countries in the CPTPP will see roughly 99% of tariffs among them eliminated. Jack Ablin, Cresset Wealth Advisors CIO & Founding Partner, says emerging markets are "downright cheap."
Dec 31, 2018
Surveillance: Market Volatility Not A Macro Story, Greene Says
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Megan Greene, Manulife Asset Management Chief Economist, says the government shutdown isn't a huge story for the U.S. economy. John Sfakianakis, Gulf Research Center Foundation Director of Economics Research, doesn't think Saudi Arabia sees oil as a strategic weapon. Martin Indyk, CFR Distinguished Fellow & Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel, talks the impact of the U.S. pullout from Syria on the "cold war" between Iran and Israel. David Kirkpatrick, Techonomy CEO & Founder, talks the risk of Amazon achieving the status of "commerce king."
Dec 28, 2018
Surveillance: Relative Dollar Strength in 2019, Barth Says
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Don Rissmiller, Strategas Research Partners, thinks the Fed should increase clarity on housing and inflation expectations. Kona Haque, ED&F MAN Head of Commodities Research, says the trade story will drive commodities' sentiment in 2019. Marvin Barth, Barclays Head of FX & EM Macro Strategy Research, says President Trump has realized it is a mistake to undermine people's confidence in institutions. Mark McCormick, TD Securities Head of FX Strategy North America, thinks reserve currencies will strengthen again next year.
Dec 27, 2018
Surveillance: Trade Wars Are Scaring People, Stringham Says
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Edward Stringham, President of the American Institute for Economic Research, doesn't buy that the Fed is responsible for all the problems of the economy. Ivan Feinseth, Tigress Financial CIO, says now is the time to take advantage of the post-Christmas sale on Wall Street. Brian Egger, Bloomberg Senior Gaming & Lodging Analyst, thinks we are only in the early innings of the sports betting legalization process. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO, says the combination of online and brick-and-mortar is powerful for retailers.
Dec 26, 2018
Surveillance: Markets Listen To The President, Spindel Says
1625
Bob Hormats, Kissinger Associates Vice-Chair, describes the demographic challenges China is facing. Margaret Talev, Bloomberg's White House Correspondent, zooms in on the question of how the shutdown will impact the economy. Mark Spindel, "The Myth of Independence: How Congress Governs the Federal Reserve" Author, says markets have listened to President Trump on his criticisms of the Fed. Chris Verrone, Strategas Partner & Head of Technical Strategy, says investors are selling what they can and not what they want.
Dec 24, 2018
Surveillance: Risk Tolerance Has Changed, Joseph Cohen Says
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Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs Advisory Director & Senior Investment Strategist, thinks the risk tolerance of investors has changed. Bill Lee, Milken Institute Chief Economist, says the Fed still has to define what they mean by "asymmetry." John Hudak, Brookings Governance Studies Senior Fellow, says General Mattis' resignation is connected to the "unstable behavior" and "erratic decision-making" of Trump. Stephen Gallo, BMO Capital Markets Head of European FX Strategy, expects the dollar to be stronger the first half of 2019.
Dec 21, 2018
Surveillance: A Data Dependent Fed With Citi's Mann
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Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth University Professor, says either the market is wrong or the Fed is wrong. Howard Ward, Gabelli Funds CIO of Growth Equities, thinks tightening eight times in the course of two years is too rapid a move. Catherine Mann, Citi Global Chief Economist, says there is a divorce between data from the real economy and data from financial markets. Narayana Kocherlakota, Former Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President, says we should get rid of the FOMC Dot Plot.
Dec 20, 2018
Surveillance: Fed Can't Be A Slave To The Market, Kroszner Says
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Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley Chief Cross-Asset Strategist, says bond markets are adjusting to slower growth in developed economies next year. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Chief Oil Analyst, says oil demand concerns stem from the U.S. and China trade war. Randy Kroszner, Former Fed Governor, says the Fed cannot be a slave to the market. Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments Chief Global Strategist, sees a 55% probability of impeachment for Trump.
Dec 19, 2018
Surveillance: Fed Is Probably Already At Neutral, Darda Says
1919
Mike Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Chief Market Strategist, says the justification to continue rising rates has evaporated. Jim O'Neill, Chatham House Chair and Goldman Sachs Former Chief Economist, says changing the manager will not solve the dilemmas of Manchester United. Terry Haines, Evercore ISI Senior Political Strategist & Head of Political Analysis, says a government shutdown would only affect 25% of federal funding. Freya Beamish, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Asia Economist, says better credit conditions in China haven't translated into liquidity.
Dec 18, 2018
Surveillance: Science Is The Key To Progress, Romer Says
1970
Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Magazine Editor and Peter G. Peterson Chair, discusses the latest edition of Foreign Affairs. Andrea Felsted, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, talks Brexit fears for U.K. retailers. Paul Romer, 2018 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences Co-Recipient, says people have less confidence in science than they had 20 years ago. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, is worried about the lack of cooperation between global superpowers.
Dec 17, 2018
Surveillance: In The Long Term, Cash Is Trash, Sowerby Says
2009
Kate Moore, BlackRock Investment Institute Chief Equity Strategist, discusses the implications of a slower growth rate next year. David Sowerby, Ancora Managing Director & Portfolio Manager, says in the long term, cash is trash. Dean Curnutt, Macro Risk Advisors CEO & Founder, talks the financialization of the VIX from an index to a trading instrument. Gabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, thinks consumer data do not support the general view of a recession in 2019 or 2020.
Dec 14, 2018
Surveillance: May Vote Was A Distraction, Mills Says
1867
Chi Onwurah, Labour MP & Shadow Minister of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, thinks the fundamental fractures in British Parliament can't be solved in two weeks. Eoin Drea, Martens Centre for European Studies Senior Research Officer, defines the Irish border as a symbol of peace and reconciliation. John Mills, JML Founder and Chairman, says the confidence vote was a bit of a distraction. Steven Major, HSBC Bank Global Head of Fixed Income Research, joins us to react to the ECB's rate decision.
Dec 13, 2018
Surveillance: Bad Timing For Confidence Vote, Huddleston Says
1326
Nigel Huddleston, Conservative Member of Parliament for Mid Worcestershire, says Theresa May would be in a very strong position if she won the vote. Guy Johnson, Bloomberg Anchor, and Erik Nielsen, Unicredit Group Chief Economist, join us for a Brexit update. Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Interest-Rates Strategy, advises to be opportunistic in every asset class in 2019. Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics President, thinks sterling relief is related to anti-Corbyn sentiment.
Dec 12, 2018
Surveillance: We Are Near The End Of The Cycle, Ruskin Says
2297
Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Securities Managing Director & Chief International Strategist, says market participants seem to expect volatility to be sticky for a while. Luke Kawa, Bloomberg Cross-Asset Reporter, says markets are pricing in some kind of inflection point for the Fed over the next two years. Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth Professor & Former BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member, defines the current situation of the U.K. as one of "chaos" and "rage". Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives Founder, explains that technology is a deflationary force. Baroness Helena Kennedy, House of Lords Member, remarks that the Irish border question was not in the mind of the voters when the Brexit referendum took place.
Dec 11, 2018
Surveillance: We're In A Very Deflationary World, Shilling Says
1804
Neil Shearing, Capital Economics Group Chief Economist, says the key question now is whether Theresa May can go back to Brussels to negotiate changes. Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex Strategist & Managing Partner, says there will be downward pressure in the rupee until the Indian central bank's independence is reestablished. Gary Shilling, A. Gary Shilling & Co. President & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, thinks we are in a very deflationary world. Cheryl Bolen, Bloomberg Government’s White House Reporter, discusses the responsibilities of the next White House Chief of Staff.
Dec 10, 2018
Surveillance: The Market Moves In Mysterious Ways, Krueger Says
1872
Alan Krueger, Princeton University Professor of Economics, says markets are reacting to the end of the sugar high. James Glassman, JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking Head Economist, thinks the Fed is more cautious as we near neutral. Michael Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Chief Market Strategist, says the Fed should be focused on the nominal economy. Margaret Brennan, CBS Face the Nation Host, discusses who may be the next candidate for White House Chief of Staff.
Dec 07, 2018
Surveillance: Chances of No-Deal Brexit Small, Tony Blair Says
2171
Tony Blair, Former U.K. Prime Minister, joins Francine Lacqua and Tom Keene on Bloomberg Surveillance TV to discuss Brexit. Tim Culpan, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says cybersecurity has played a role in Huawei's CFO's arrest. David Rubenstein, The Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Executive Chairman, reflects on the global admiration for former President George H.W. Bush. Tina Davis, Bloomberg Energy & Commodities Americas, joins us to wrap headlines from the OPEC+ meetings.
Dec 06, 2018
Surveillance: Remembering President George H.W. Bush
1903
Bloomberg Surveillance remember former President George H.W. Bush in today's episode. Diana Furchtgott-Roth, Former Office of Policy Planning Associate Director for George H.W. Bush, discusses the former President's economic policies. Ron Bonjean, The Bonjean Company Founder, discusses the future of the Republican party. Admiral James Stavridis, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander for Europe, says George H.W. Bush was one of the biggest supporters of NATO in history. Bill Hoagland, Bipartisan Policy Center Senior Vice President, says the former President was pragmatic about deficits.
Dec 05, 2018
Surveillance: 2020 Will Be Quite Weak, Shepherdson Says
1927
Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist, says wage growth is much more likely to head North than South. Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence U.S. Rates Strategist, discusses the yield curve flattening. Kevin Book, Clearview Energy Partners Head of Research, brings us an update on oil markets. Emma Ross Thomas, Bloomberg Brexit Editor, says BOE Governor Mark Carney is no stranger to criticism.
Dec 04, 2018
Surveillance: The U.S. Economy Is In Good Shape, Clarida Says
1550
Richard Clarida, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, says the U.S. Economy is in good shape right now. Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics & Policy Correspondent, says the market is pricing in a much lower path for rate hikes for the Fed in 2019. Marianne Schneider-Petsinger, Chatham House Geoeconomics Fellow for U.S. & the Americas, says it is not clear what the Trump administration wants to achieve with China. Freya Beamish, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Asia Economist, highlights the divergent outlook of monetary policy for the PBOC and the Fed. Former Senator Alan Simpson, (R) Wyoming, remembers President George H.W. Bush.
Dec 03, 2018
Surveillance: China Was Caught Off Balance By Trump, Fenby Says
2493
Jonathan Fenby, TSLombard Chairman, says the trade war has come at an inconvenient time for Xi Jinping. Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent, updates us on the USMCA signing in Buenos Aires. Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives Founder & President, does not expect the G-20 meetings to resolve trade issues. Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President & Founder, says a framework agreement between Xi and Trump would be a huge win. And Garrett Graff, Author of "Threat Matrix", offers an inside look into political drama in Washington.
Nov 30, 2018
Surveillance: Normalization With Former ECB President Trichet
3074
Thu Lan Nguyen, Commerzbank FX Strategist, and Daniel Morris, BNP Paribas Asset Management Senior Investment Strategist, discuss the market impact of various Brexit outcomes. Jean-Claude Trichet, Former ECB President, says the 2008 crisis put central banks close to a financial stability mandate. Don Gimbel, Geneva Advisors Portfolio Manager, thinks China and the U.S. may reach an agreement at the G-20 summit. Leon Cooperman, Omega Advisors Chairman & CEO, discusses the algorithms that bring volatility to the markets. Eric Garcetti, Los Angeles Mayor, says mayors are the political first responders to natural disasters.
Nov 29, 2018
Surveillance: Fiscal Cliff Coming In 2020, Crescenzi Says
2418
Bloomberg Surveillance is live from the Bloomberg link for the Year Ahead Summit. Miranda Carr, Haitong International China Macro Strategist, says the Chinese government will have to take strong measures to avoid volatility in the yuan. Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO Market Strategist & Portfolio Manager, expects a fiscal cliff in 2020. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman & Co-Founder, discusses the humility of Former Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy, the guest on his show "Peer to Peer Conversations". Luca Solca, Exane BNP Paribas Head of Luxury Goods Research, says that the Chinese consumer represents a third of the luxury market. Nick Colas, DataTrek Research Co-Founder, says bitcoin is a cloudy market.
Nov 28, 2018
Surveillance: Auto Workers Losing For Decades Now, Alden Says
1812
Arlene Foster, U.K. Democratic Unionist Party Leader, tells us why her party doesn't support May's Brexit deal. Kevin Tynan, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Automotive Analyst, says GM is going through this "painful transition" in order to be relevant in the future. Edward Alden, CFR Senior Fellow and Author of "Failure To Adjust: How Americans Got Left Behind In The Global Economy", says China is a bigger market for GM than the U.S. Andrew Wood, Chatham House Associate Fellow for their Russia and Eurasia Programme, does not think there will be new sanctions on Russia.
Nov 27, 2018
Surveillance: Unemployment Rate Is Going Nowhere, Sweeney Says
2118
Nicky Morgan, U.K. Member of Parliament & Chair of Treasury Select Committee, and Rupert Harrison, BlackRock Multi-Asset Strategies Portfolio Manager, talk the challenges of getting the Brexit deal through Parliament. James Sweeney, Credit Suisse Chief Economist & Head of Global Fixed Income & Economic Research, says returns aren't great but the unemployment rate is going nowhere. Oliver Chen, Cowen Senior Equity Research Analyst, discusses Cyber Monday for a generation that needs "instagramable moments." Abhishek Deshpande, Head of JP Morgan's Global Oil Market Research & Strategy Team, thinks oil's falling prices are partly policy led.
Nov 26, 2018
Surveillance: Oil Prices Boost Consumer Spending, Swonk Says
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Steve Wieting, Citigroup Global Chief Investment Strategist, doesn't think 2019 marks a down year for the U.S. or the rest of the world. John Levy, John B. Levy & Company Founder, says we are going from necessity shopping to experience shopping. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, says oil prices will give a boost to consumer spending in the holiday season. Christyan Malek, J.P. Morgan Head of EMEA Oil & Gas Research, talks the Russian break even and the Saudi break even oil prices. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Founder, says stores are in a good inventory position for holidays sales.
Nov 23, 2018
Surveillance: We Need To Fix The Trade Issue, OECD's Boone Says
1753
Brian Levitt, Oppenheimer Funds Senior Investment Strategist, says the Phillips curve is as flat as the table he is sitting at. Laurence Boone, OECD Chief Economist, highlights the need to fix trade issues. Mike Feroli, JPMorgan Chief Economist, thinks the Fed will continue to hike every quarter next year. Brian Kelly, The Points Guy, says the credit card market is living the biggest boom we have ever seen.
Nov 21, 2018
Surveillance: U.S. Economy Weakening But Strong, Cantrill Says
1827
George Bory, Wells Fargo Securities Head of Credit Strategy, says the march back towards cash is well underway. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO Head of Public Policy, thinks the chances of a big infrastructure package are higher than markets seem to think. Mark Gilbert, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says we are nearing a bear market. Wolfgang Munchau, Eurointelligence Director, thinks people are overestimating the power of Germany to influence Euro states.
Nov 20, 2018
Surveillance: There's Potential For Some Inflation, Mann Says
2014
Catherine Mann, Citi Global Chief Economist, says the Fed must balance the signals coming from the global and domestic economy. Luigi Zingales, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Finance Professor, thinks Salvini wants the confrontation with the EU for political reasons. Isabelle Mateos Y Lago, BlackRock Investment Institute Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, notes it's the first time in a while that there's uncertainty about the Fed's next move. Budd Bugatch, Raymond James Research Managing Director, provides an update on Home Depot and Walmart.
Nov 19, 2018
Surveillance: It's The Brexit Deal That Works, Phillipson Says
2486
Stephen Roach, Yale University Professor, says there might be some type of standstill agreement between China and the U.S. in the Buenos Aires meeting. Antony Phillipson, British Consul General to New York, highlights the need to deliver some certainty on Brexit. Margaret Brennan, CBS Face the Nation Host, will discuss the record number of women in Congress during her next show. Stephanie Wissink, Jefferies Managing Director & Consumer Research Analyst, says the baton has shifted from baby boomers to millennials being the population driver for consumer goods.
Nov 16, 2018
Surveillance: Hard Brexit Looks Very Tangible, Foley Says
2109
Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy & Senior Currency Analyst, says the prospects of a hard Brexit look very tangible today. Neil Callanan, Bloomberg's London Bureau Chief, thinks Theresa May will struggle in a leadership contest. Danny Blanchflower, Darmouth Professor & Former BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member, thinks the current Brexit deal will collapse. And John Carreyou, Author of "Bad Blood", details the writing process for his book on Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos.
Nov 15, 2018
Surveillance: Confidence In Draghi Is Diminishing, Rahbari Says
2682
Ebrahim Rahbari, Citi Global Head of Content & G10 FX Strategy, says confidence in Draghi is diminishing. David Herro, Harris Associates CIO of International Equities, thinks European stocks are especially undervalued today. Toby Moskovitz, Heritage Equity Partners President & Founder, proposes that Amazon creates a requirement for local hiring and job training. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Founder, says product innovation contributes Macy's strong earnings. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman & Co-Founder, previews his interview with Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan.
Nov 14, 2018
Surveillance: The Economy of Seattle Meets Arlington & Queens
1983
Kim Wallace, Eurasia Group Managing Director of U.S., thinks people are growing comfortable with the notion of socializing health care in America. Nancy Ognanovich, Congressional Leadership Reporter For Bloomberg Government, says funding the government will be the Congress priority. Greg Boutle, BNP Head of Equity & Derivative Strategy, expects a slowdown in nominal GDP next year. Bill Smead, Smead Capital Management CEO & CIO, describes how Seattle has changed as Amazon has grown.
Nov 13, 2018
Surveillance: We Still Have Work To Do, Rep. Scalise Says
2559
Jim Glassman, JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking Head Economist, says of all the things he worries about, the Fed is not on that list. Kevin Book, Clearview Energy Partners Head of Research, talks the supply and demand picture for crude oil. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) lays out his plans for his last few months as House Majority Whip. Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Interest-Rates Strategy, says you don't have to take on a ton of treasury risk to get big returns. Tyler Brule, Monocle Editor-In-Chief, takes a close look at soft power.
Nov 12, 2018
Surveillance: This Fed Is Data Dependent, Zentner Says
2075
Chris Rupkey, MUFG Union Bank Chief Financial Economist & Managing Director, thinks the U.S. tariffs are already having an impact on China. Stewart Patrick, CFR Senior Fellow & Director of the International Institutions and Global Governance Program, joins us to discuss the Armistice Day Centennial. Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist, thinks Powell has been a great communicator but his one misstep was when he said, "We are far from neutral." Michael Beschloss, Presidential Historian & Author of "Presidents Of War", expects a Battle Royale within the Democratic Party in the next two years.
Nov 09, 2018
Surveillance: One or Two Fed Hikes Next Year, Milken's Lee Says
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Stephanie Baker, Bloomberg News Senior Writer, discusses the Russian investigation in the wake of Sessions' resignation. William Lee, Milken Institute Chief Economist, expects one or two rate hikes from the Fed next year. James Albertine, Consumer Edge Senior Auto Analyst, says Robyn Denholm would not have been his first choice for Tesla Chair. Bill Gavin, Former FBI Assistant Director, reacts to the California shooting. David Laufman, Government Investigations Lawyer & Former U.S. Department of Justice Senior National Security Official, revisits Sessions' recusal from the Russia investigation.
Nov 08, 2018
Surveillance Special: A Divided Congress
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Bloomberg Surveillance brings you a Midterms Special. Emily Ekins, Cato Institute Research Fellow & Director of Polling, says millennials were energized to vote in these midterms. Marc Lotter, Former Press Secretary for VP Mike Pence & Trump 2020 Advisory Board Member, shares his key takeaways from the Florida and Ohio races. Lawrence Summers, Former U.S. Treasury Secretary & Former National Economic Council Director, says fiscal responsibility is not the concern right now. Robby Mook, Hillary Clinton's 2016 Campaign Manager, thinks Democrats need to focus on delivering results to those who elected them. Trent Lott, Former Senate Majority Leader, says getting things done in a divided government takes communication and leadership. Stephen Moore, Heritage Foundation & "Trumponomics" Co-Author, thinks the booming economy saved Senate seats for Republicans. And Frank Keating, Former Governor of Oklahoma, says he's not happy with what is going on at the U.S.-Mexico border.
Nov 07, 2018
Surveillance: Voters Turnout When They're Pissed, Goolsbee Says
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Kathy Fisher, Bernstein Head of Wealth & Investment Strategies, says gridlock would be the best outcome for the markets. Doug Heye, Deputy Chief of Staff to Eric Cantor & Republican Strategist, guides us through two races in Iowa. Joe Lieberman, United Against a Nuclear Iran Chairman and Former Senator (D-CT), thinks Congress has let down the people. Austan Goolsbee, Fmr. White House Economic Adviser to President Obama, is hoping voters become increasingly skeptical of what they see on social media during elections.
Nov 06, 2018
Surveillance: U.S. Midterms Eve With Jared Bernstein
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Harm Bandholz, Unicredit Bank Chief U.S. Economist, discusses potential for American austerity as the global economy decelerates. Golnar Motevalli, Bloomberg News Reporter in Tehran, says Iran sanctions are a sad story for the middle class. Megan Greene, Manulife Asset Management Chief Economist, does not expect the economy to overheat. Jared Bernstein, Fmr. Chief Economist & Economic Adviser to Vice President Joe R. Biden, says we've dropped the ball on public investment.
Nov 05, 2018
Surveillance: U.S. Seeing Real Wage Growth, CEA's Hassett Says
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Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs Global Head of Commodities Research, explains how big oil companies are adapting to a de-carbonized world. Eric Ross, Cascend Securities Chief Investment Strategist, analyzes  the "Apple ecosystem." Betsey Stevenson, University of Michigan Professor & Former Chief Economist of the U.S. Department of Labor, says we have never seen a higher wage gap between workers with college degrees and those without. Kevin Hassett, Council of Economic Advisers Chairman, says the U.S. is seeing real wage growth.
Nov 02, 2018
Surveillance: Risk Parity Framework is Unraveling, Major Says
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Seema Malhotra, Labour Party Member of Parliament, does not believe we will see a Brexit deal by November 21st. Steve Wieting, Citi Global CIO, expects a positive equity environment in 2019. Steve Major, HSBC Global Head of Fixed Income Research, says October was a bucket of cold water for the S&P. Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments Chief Political Strategist, says President Trump is absolutely already on the 2020 campaign trail.
Nov 01, 2018
Surveillance: The U.S. Is Winning The Trade War, Foley Says
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Gerry Fowler, Aberdeen Standard Investments Global Multi-Asset Strategist, says the Libor rate is the key driver of equity markets. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says the dollar-renminbi cross has a very political exchange rate. David Kirkpatrick, Techonomy Founder & CEO, notes Facebook growth has slowed in the developed world. Troy Gayeski, Skybridge Capital Partner, gives us a hedge fund update. Margie Patel, Wells Fargo Asset Management Senior Portfolio Manager, compares loan to bond investment.
Oct 31, 2018
Surveillance: Too Late To Sell, Too Early To Buy, Trennert Says
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Karen Ubelhart, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Machinery Analyst, sees opportunities in the tech gigs sector. Jason Trennert, Strategas Research Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, expects more dispersion in returns as capital becomes rationed. Bob Janjuah, Nomura Senior Independent Client Advisor of Global Markets, worries about the "post-easy-money world." Jim O'Sullivan, High Frequency Chief U.S. Economist, expects a strong employment report on Friday. Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg TV & Radio Chief Washington Correspondent, updates us on President Trump's immigration plans.
Oct 30, 2018
Surveillance: Merkel Has Been A Monolith, Schick Says
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Michael Shaoul, Marketfield Asset Management Chairman, Portfolio Manger & CEO, says IBM hasn't managed to innovate. Shannon K. O'Neil, Council on Foreign Relations VP, Deputy Director of Studies, and Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin American Studies, says Brazil's elected President Bolsonaro models himself after U.S. President Trump. Neil Shearing, Capital Economics Group Chief Economist, wonders when the sugar high from the tax cut will start to fade. Nina Schick, Rasmussen Global Director of Data & Polling, says it will be tough for Germany to replace Merkel who is a "monolith" for her country and the EU.
Oct 29, 2018
Surveillance: This Is A Sustainable Cycle, Mulvaney Says
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John Ryding, RDQ Economics Chief Economist & Founding Partner, does not think the Fed should stop hiking. Robert Kaplan, Dallas Fed President & CEO, tells Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics & Politics Correspondent, that the current market volatility is typical. Nancy Cordes, CBS News Chief Congressional Correspondent, updates us the Senate race in Texas. And Mick Mulvaney, U.S. Office of Management & Budget Director, says the White House expected the low inflation numbers we saw today.
Oct 26, 2018
Surveillance: Tesla 4Q Is A Big Question Mark, Johnson Says
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Gordon Johnson, Vertical Group Managing Director & Analyst, thinks Tesla's positive numbers in 2Q and 3Q are not repeatable. Gary Shilling, A Gary Shilling & Co. President, says we are basically in a deflationary war. Christian Schulz, Citi Economics Team Director, previews the ECB Meeting today. And Gene Munster, Loup Ventures Managing Partner & Co-Founder, forecasts Apple's future in autos.
Oct 25, 2018
Coming Soon: The New Economy
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Bloomberg’s head of economics Stephanie Flanders calls on Bloomberg's worldwide network of reporters and expert commentators to cast a fresh eye on looming challenges for the world economy which affect us all. This 6 part podcast combines on the ground reporting with expert discussion on the future of cities, finance and technology, trade, global governance and making growth more inclusive. It's the start of a global conversation on how to confront these issues which will continue in Singapore in early November, when around 400 top business leaders and thinkers from across the globe will gather in Singapore for the first New Economy Forum.
Oct 24, 2018
Surveillance: The Pessimism Is Overdone, Normand Says
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John Normand, JP Morgan Head of Cross-Asset Fundamental Strategy, says there are pockets of opportunity in emerging markets. George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures Founder & Chairman, discusses the U.S.-Saudi Arabia relationship. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, says much of the Fed's power comes from the perception of its independence. Craig Gordon, Bloomberg Washington Bureau Chief, joins us on breaking news. And Jon Lieber, PWC National Tax Services Principal, analyzes the possibility of a middle class tax cut.
Oct 24, 2018
Surveillance: No Exuberance In Equity Markets, Kantor Says
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Charles Kantor, Neuberger Berman Senior Portfolio Manager, sees no exuberance or optimism in equity markets. Frank Newport, Gallup Poll Editor-In-Chief, discusses the challenges of polling election turnout. Sanam Vakil, Chatham House Senior Consulting Research Fellow in the Middle East & North Africa Program, says Saudi Arabia wants to preserve their relationship with the U.S. at all costs. Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, hops in the studio to analyze the market losses this morning.
Oct 23, 2018
Surveillance: No Tax Legislation Before Midterms, Hudak Says
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Kate Moore, BlackRock Investment Institute Chief Equity Strategist, defends her market optimism. John Hudak, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow in Governance Studies, predicts President Trump will "absolutely not" pass new tax legislation by the midterms. Matt Maley, MillerTabak and Co., LLC Managing Director & Equity Strategist, advises to go to cash. Steven Cook, CFR Senior Fellow For Middle East And Africa Studies, says Khashoggi's story will shake the Saudi royal family.
Oct 22, 2018
Surveillance: Neither Party is Focused On Debt, Hormats Says
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Oct 19, 2018
Surveillance: Italy Likely To Be Downgraded A Notch, Hense Says
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Chris Marangi, Gabelli Funds Co-CIO, talks the future of Fox, Disney, Google and Youtube. Florian Hense, Berenberg European Economist, says it is likely that Italy will be downgraded a notch. Therese Raphael, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says the Trump administration's proposal for a free-trade deal with the U.K. is music to the ears of Brexiteers. Dana Peterson, Citigroup Economist, discusses the uneven wage growth in the U.S.
Oct 18, 2018
Surveillance: No Reason To Stop Hiking, Zentner Says
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Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist, sees no reason for the Fed to stop hiking right now. Martin Indyk, CFR Distinguished Fellow & Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel, says every message has to be carefully controlled in a crisis, including the one with Saudi Arabia. Joel Levington, Bloomberg Intelligence Credit & Strategy Analyst, expects Uber bonds to have junk ratings. Wolfgang Munchau, Eurointelligence President, is optimistic about a Brexit deal in December.
Oct 17, 2018
Surveillance: The U.S. Is Abusing Its Privileges, Rose Says
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Jack Lew, Former U.S. Treasury Secretary, thinks economic sanctions are a powerful tool to influence countries to change their policies. Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Magazine Editor, says the U.S. is abusing its privileges. Alison Williams, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst of U.S. Banks, talks IPO growth. Mohamed El-Erian, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, is worried about the over-promise of liquidity in banks.
Oct 16, 2018
Surveillance: BAC Is Growing Organically, Cassidy Says
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Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Equity Research Managing Director, says the universal bank model is outperforming the regional bank model. John Sfakianakis, Gulf Research Center Foundation Economics Research Director, thinks Khashoggi's disappearance has been a blow to Saudi Arabia's image-making. Vivian Nereim, Bloomberg Reporter, reports from Riyadh on the beginning of an internal probe in Saudi Arabia. Gary Gensler, Former CFTC Chairman, defends quarterly earnings reporting arguing that the public has the right to know about companies on a regular basis.
Oct 15, 2018
Surveillance: No Election Impact From Celebrities, Haines Says
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David Pearl, Epoch Investment Partners Co-Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager, says JP Morgan has a clear strategy which includes a large return of capital. Terry Haines, Evercore ISI Senior Political Strategist, thinks that celebrity endorsements do not have an impact on elections results. Gustavo Rangel, ING Chief LatAm Economist, explains that big Latin American countries are not vulnerable to FX volatility. Mitch Roschelle, PwC Partner, says the U.S. is undersupplied with new housing stock.
Oct 12, 2018
Surveillance: Correction Was Long In The Making, Memani Says
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Geoffrey Yu, UBS Wealth Management Head of UK Investment Office, is not worried about tail risks. Krishna Memani, OppenheimerFunds CIO & Head of Fixed Income, thinks credit is the strongest place in the markets right now. Dana Peterson, Citigroup Global Markets Director and Economist, says an independent Fed is the best Fed. And Justin Leverenz, Oppenheimer Funds Director of EM Equities, highlights the focus on the sustainability of Tencent.
Oct 11, 2018
Surveillance: Dollar Centrality Up Since 2008, Mallaby Says
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Sebastian Mallaby, CFR Senior Fellow for International Economics, says the dollar's centrality in the global system has gone up since 2008. Claus Vistesen, Pantheon MacroEconomics Chief Eurozone Economist, thinks the Italian bond market is mispriced. Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities Managing Director & U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research, prefers that banks have less revenues today but sustainable growth. Amanda Sloat, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow, thinks people are becoming increasingly more pessimistic towards Brexit.
Oct 10, 2018
Surveillance: Italy Unsustainable in Eurozone, Varoufakis Says
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Harm Bandholz, Unicredit Bank Chief U.S. Economist, says there is a good chance that we will see a downturn in 2020. Kathy Fisher, Bernstein Head of Wealth & Investment Strategist, does not expect a terrible recession whenever it comes. Yanis Varoufakis, Former Finance Minister of Greece, thinks Italy is not sustainable within the current rules of the Eurozone. And Admiral James Stavridis, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, recommends we read Madeleine Albright's new book, "Fascism: A Warning."
Oct 09, 2018
Surveillance: Nordhaus Was A Great Teacher, Buiter Says
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Willem Buiter, Citi Special Economic Adviser, says the Nobel Prize for Economics Winner William Nordhaus was a very inspiring teacher. Isaac Boltansky, Compass Point Managing Director of Policy Research & Senior Policy Analyst, says Kavanaugh's confirmation galvanized the political pulse for the midterms. Monica de Bolle, Peterson Institute for International Economics Senior Fellow, thinks Brazil's first round winner Jair Bolsonaro is more nationalistic and state interventionist than the markets seem to realize. And Steve Keen, Kingston University of London Professor of Economics, talks the role of technology in economics after Paul Romer's Nobel Prize win.
Oct 08, 2018
Surveillance: Unemployment Can Go Lower, Kudlow Says
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Howard Ward, Gabelli Funds CIO of Growth Equities, focuses on defensive growth stocks while the Fed is tightening. Betsey Stevenson, University of Michigan Professor & Former Chief Economist of the U.S. Department of Labor from 2010-2011, says wage growth goes mainly to the top end of the income distribution. Timothy O'Brien, Bloomberg Opinion Executive Editor, thinks that the debate around Kavanaugh has moved from sexual harassment to issues regarding his credibility. Larry Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, says unemployment can go lower.
Oct 05, 2018
Surveillance: Businessweek Scoop On China's Microchip Hack
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We lead today's podcast with a Bloomberg Businessweek scoop: China used a tiny chip to infiltrate almost 30 U.S. companies. Then we turn to Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup Global Markets Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, who notes 75% of S&P revenues are U.S. driven. Max Baucus, Former U.S. Ambassador to China & Former Senator from Montana, says countries will have to reach agreements on technology or this will be "the Wild West." Louise Yamada, Technical Research Advisors, says we're now in a new raising rate cycle. Jordan Robertson, Bloomberg News Global Technology Reporter, breaks down his reporting on China's microchips. And Adam Segal, Council on Foreign Relations Digital & Cyberspace Policy Program Director, says this story will shape upcoming security discussions.
Oct 04, 2018
Surveillance: Lighthizer Is The Serious Negotiator, Alden Says
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Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist, says people in the U.K. are sick of ten years of conservative austerity. Anna Edwards, Bloomberg Markets European Open Anchor, reports on PM May's speech at the Tory Party Conference. Craig Trudell, Bloomberg Autos Americas Team Leader, gives us a much needed autos update from Michigan. Edward Alden, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow, analyzes the USMCA trade agreement. And David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Chairman, previews his upcoming show with Barry Diller.
Oct 03, 2018
Surveillance: The USMCA Is Encouraging, Lagarde Says
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Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex Chief Market Strategist & Managing Partner, thinks Italy needs growth. Bob Doll, Nuveen Asset Management Senior Portfolio Manager & Chief Equity Strategist, says Fed conversations are getting harder as we approach neutral. Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director, is pleased the USMCA exists. Alan Krueger, Princeton Professor of Economics, thinks Amazon is saying, "we are going to be a responsible employer," by raising their minimum wage.
Oct 02, 2018
Surveillance: USMCA Is A Rebranding Of The Old NAFTA, Lee Says
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Bill Lee, Milken Chief Economist, says the USMCA is an example of the new bilateral approach to negotiations of the U.S. Mary Lovely, Peterson Institute Senior Fellow, says 70% to 100% of the tariffs in autos will fall on consumers. Kimberly Robinson, Bloomberg Law Legal Editor, comments on the political nature of Kavanaugh's speech. Abe Selassie, IMF Director of the African Department, highlights that by 2030 half of the annual increase of the global workforce will come from Sub-Saharan Africa.
Oct 01, 2018
Surveillance: Republicans Trying to Ramp Up Base, Kamarck Says
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Barry Eichengreen, University of California Professor Berkeley, analyzes the IMF's future. Alberto Gallo, Algebris Macro Strategies Head, sees little contagion in Europe after the approval of the Italian budget. John Coffee, Columbia Law Professor, says the Tesla board is not strong. Elaine Kamarck, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow, notes the Republicans have no women on the Senate Judiciary Committee. And Shannon Pettypiece, Bloomberg News White House Reporter, updates us on Sen. Flake's decision to confirm Judge Kavanaugh.
Sep 28, 2018
Surveillance: A Road Map for Today's Kavanaugh Hearing From 1991
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Thursday’s Senate hearing over sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh stirs memories of similar testimony from 1991. That’s when Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas was called back in his confirmation process to face the sexual misconduct allegations of Anita Hill. Bloomberg’s Bob Moon reports on how this scenario played out 27 years ago.
Sep 27, 2018
Surveillance: The Dollar Can Climb Higher, Foley Says
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Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says the dollar can climb higher. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO Head of Public Policy, is skeptical about Congress ratifying a bilateral trade agreement with Mexico. Peter Chatwell, Mizuho International Head of European Rates Strategy, thinks the ECB could go negative again in the future. And Michelle Meyer, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Head of US Economics, tells us whether to rent or buy property. And Bob Moon, Bloomberg Radio Daybreak Host, joins us to discuss Judge Kavanaugh and 1991.
Sep 27, 2018
Surveillance: Multilateralism Is A Better Way, Gurria Says
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Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs Global Head of Commodities Research & Partner, says they are bullish on owning oil. Werner Hoyer, European Investment Bank President, says Europe is behind in investment. Michael R. Bloomberg, Former Mayor of New York City & Bloomberg LP Founder, says the U.S. needs to have access to China's markets. Angel Gurria, OECD Secretary General, says it is crucial that trade continuous to drive growth. And Roger Ferguson, TIAA CEO & Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair, discusses the Fed rate decision due this afternoon.
Sep 26, 2018
Surveillance: China's Engagement Positive For EM, Spence Says
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Michael Spence, NYU Professor & Nobel Laureate, says China wants to be a positive influence in the developing world. Chris Verrone, Strategas Partner & Head of Technical Strategy, sees discipline in the credit markets. Sarah Ponczek, Bloomberg News Cross Asset Reporter, is watching Facebook shares following the departure of Instagram's founders. Patrick Gregory, Bloomberg Supreme Court Reporter, discusses the latest in the contentious confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh. Erik Schatzker, Bloomberg Editor-at-Large, hops in the booth to discuss the resignation of Argentina's Central Bank Governor Luis Caputo.
Sep 25, 2018
Surveillance: Diversification in Botswana with Min. Kenewendo
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Brian Levitt, OppenheimerFunds Senior Market Strategist, favors investment in technology. Rufus Xerxa, National Foreign Trade Council President, says breaking international trade rules undermines the competitiveness and cost structure of companies. Bogolo Kenewendo, Republic of Botswana Minister of Investment, Trade, and Industry, plans for Botswana to go from a middle-income to a high-income country by 2036. Greg Stohr, Bloomberg News Supreme Court Reporter, discusses where the confirmation for Brett Kavanaugh stands.
Sep 24, 2018
Surveillance: Slowdown in 2020 But Not Recession, Hooper Says
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Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank Securities Chief Economist, says there will be a slowdown in 2020 but it doesn't have to be a recession. Freya Beamish, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Asia Economist, says there would have been monetary easing in China even without the trade war. Pennsylvania Representative Ryan Costello says voters want Congressmen who keep their independence. Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley Global Head of Banks & Diversified Financials Research and U.S. Large Cap Banks Analyst, says banks are putting the customer at the heart of their IT platforms.
Sep 21, 2018
Surveillance: A Strong Dollar Kills The EM Story, Maher Says
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Daragh Maher, HSBC US Head of FX Strategy, says investors always ask if it's time to sell the dollar. Terry Haines, Evercore ISI Senior Political Strategist and Head of Political Analysis, predicts markets will understand that policy rollback in the U.S. is very unlikely. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg News Investment Banking Reporter, discusses her recent piece on Howard Lutnick, Cantor Fitzgerald CEO. And Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, says his approach has always been to average into positions, both long and short.
Sep 20, 2018
Surveillance: Money Will Go Back To EM, Dennis Says
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Geoff Dennis, UBS Head of Global Emerging Markets Equity Strategy, thinks money will go back to EM once the dollar goes down. Beth Comstock, Former GE Vice-Chair, says that MBA students are not encouraged to be entrepreneurial. Rep. Mike Turner, U.S. Representative for Ohio's 10th congressional district (R), says the president is making headway for Republicans by focusing his message on the economy. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Chairman, discusses his interview with Jeff Bezos, Amazon CEO & Founder, which will air tonight on Bloomberg Radio at 5 p.m. and Bloomberg TV at 9 p.m. ET.
Sep 19, 2018
Surveillance: Tariffs Make U.S. Economy Worse Off, Roubini Says
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Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates Chairman & NYU Stern School of Business Professor, argues that a majority of the impact of tariffs on Chinese goods will be paid by U.S. consumers. Stephanie Segal, CSIS Deputy Director & Senior Fellow, asks whether, with dollar strength and increasing financial need, the U.S. is pulling financing away from the rest of the world. Jane Foley, Rabobank Senior Currency Analyst, sees sterling as vulnerable until the U.K. government arrives to consensus on a Brexit deal.  Kimberley Robinson, Bloomberg Law Supreme Court Reporter, says that those arguing a case against Kavanaugh have become more focused on whether a denial can disqualify him from the Supreme Court.
Sep 18, 2018
Surveillance: Banks Are Relatively More Resilient, Mayo Says
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Chris Flavelle, Bloomberg News Climate and Adaptation Reporter, reports on the historic rainfall in North Carolina brought on by Hurricane Florence. Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Global Head of FX Trading Strategy, says dispersion is "the name of the game" in currency performance. Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities Senior Analyst, thinks banks are less susceptible to cycles than in the past. Frances Donald, Manulife Asset Management Head of Macroeconomic Strategy, is concerned about 2020 based on fiscal numbers. Michael Phelps, Olympic Gold Medalist & Colgate Global Ambassador, tells Tom and Pimm how they can reduce their water waste.
Sep 17, 2018
Surveillance Special: 10 Years After the Crisis
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It is September 15, 2008. Employees are pouring out of Lehman Brothers with boxes. The financial services firm has collapsed. In the 10 years since the largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history, what have we learned? What has changed and what hasn't? This week, we reflect on the financial crisis with experts from Wall Street, central banks, and academia. This Surveillance Special is a compilation of those interviews.  Guests include: Former Bank of England Deputy Governor Paul Tucker, BlackRock's Rupert Harrison, McKinsey Global Institute's Susan Lund, Bloomberg's Yalman Onaran, Grisanti Capital Management's Chris Gristanti, Former ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, Unicredit's Erik Nielsen, University College London's Mariana Mazzucato, Former IMF Chief Economist Kenneth Rogoff, RBS Chairman Howard Davies, Former Lehman CFO Brad Hintz, and BNP Paribas USA CEO Jean-Yves Fillion.
Sep 14, 2018
Surveillance: Lehman Like a Greek Tragedy, Hintz Says
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Brad Hintz, Former Lehman CFO & NYU Professor, says that from the 2008 financial crisis, we've learned that repo is not stable. Yousef Gamal el-Din, Bloomberg TV Daybreak Middle East Anchor, brings us an update from Turkey. Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics President, says the ECB is not grappling with outrageous inflation. Megan Greene, Manulife Asset Management Chief Economist, says for the most part, the Fed is focused on the U.S. and not EM. And Mark Lehman, JMP Securities President, thinks Apple will continue to garner attention.
Sep 14, 2018
Surveillance: Concerned About U.S. Trade Policy, Dudley Says
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We start off on a segment from our TV show with Ken Rogoff, Harvard Professor & Former IMF Chief Economist, and Mariana Mazzucato, University College London Professor & Author of "The Value of Everything." Following, Jim Roemer, Best Weather Inc. President, predicts Hurricane Florence will impact stocks more than commodities. Next, Steve Auth, Federated Investors Equities CIO, says tech companies are the new monopolies. And William Dudley, Former New York Fed Chairman, tells Bloomberg's Michael McKee that he's concerned about the fiscal sustainability of the U.S.
Sep 12, 2018
Surveillance: I Think About The Families On 9/11, Kean Says
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William Lee, Milken Institute Chief Economist, says firms are substituting capital for labor. Walter Piecyk, BTIG Research Analyst & Managing Director, says electronic companies have high profit margins and they can use these to avoid price increases from tariffs. Margie Patel, Wells Fargo Asset Management, says the Fed is very transparent in what they are doing. And Thomas Kean, 9/11 Commission Chairman & Former New Jersey Governor, reflects on September 11, 2001
Sep 11, 2018
Surveillance: Fed is Worried About Overheating, O'Sullivan Says
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Chris Grisanti, Grisanti Capital Management CEO, predicts if Democrats take the house at midterms, it will not upset the markets. Jim O'Sullivan, High Frequency Chief U.S. Economist, recaps Friday's jobs numbers. Mary Lovely, Peterson Institute for International Economics Senior Fellow & Syracuse University Professor, has her eye on market growth in Asia. And Nomi Prins, Author of "Collusion: How Central Bankers Rigged the World", says the dollar tends to be the recipient in the Great Unwind.
Sep 10, 2018
Surveillance: Wage Growth Is Still A Mystery, Krueger Says
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Mike Schumacher, Wells Fargo Head of Interest Strategy, says the potential of job reports to move the markets has decreased dramatically. Alan Krueger, Princeton University Professor & Former Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, remembers he told President Obama this wouldn't be the strongest recovery but it could be the longest. James Glassman, JP Morgan Chase Commercial Banking Head Economist, and Betsey Stevenson, University of Michigan Professor & Former Chief Economist of the U.S. Department of Labor, react to the jobs number in real time. And Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief EM Credit Strategist, says what initially drew foreign investors to EM is the scope in which central banks could ease rates.
Sep 07, 2018
Surveillance: Hill Hearings Eclipsed by Op-Ed, Cirilli Reports
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Lisa Abramowicz fills in for Tom Keene today. We speak with Tim Ash, Bluebay Asset Management Senior EM Sovereign Strategist, who says EM is a big part of the global economy and it cannot be ignored. Chris Marangi, Gabelli Funds Co-CIO, says we are catching up on regulations for the Internet. Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg News Chief Washington Correspondent, provides an update on the White House's search for the anonymous NYT Op-Ed writer. We also feature a segment from our TV show with Anchor Scarlet Fu and Bloomberg Tech Reporter Sarah Frier. And Gene Munster, Loup Ventures Management Managing Director & Co-Founder, provides details on Google's absence at the Hill Hearings yesterday.
Sep 06, 2018
Surveillance: U.S. Is In Round 1 Of Trade Wars, Gallo Says
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Alberto Gallo, Algebris Investments Head of Macro Strategies & Partner, says the Turkish lira has been hurt by outflows from investors. John Taft, Baird Vice Chairman, analyzes risks in the shadow banking system. Michael Nathanson, MoffettNathanson Founding Partner & Senior Research Analyst, suspects Jack Dorsey and Sheryl Sandberg will be more contrite than previous representatives from their companies. And Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives President & Founder, reviews U.S. eco data with Tom and Jon.
Sep 05, 2018
Surveillance: The Long Party is Over, Kotok Says
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Marc Chandler, Brown Brothers Harriman Global Head of Currency Strategy, thinks volatility in EM currencies is mostly due to domestic policy mistakes. Lakshman Achuthan, Economic Cycle Research Co-Founder & COO, says emerging markets are sensitive to the deceleration of global industrial growth. George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank Global Co-Head of FX Research, talks dollar strength. Kimberly Robinson, Bloomberg Law Supreme Court Reporter, does not expect any surprises from the U.S. Supreme Court confirmation hearings of Brett Kavanaugh. David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors CIO & Co-Founder, says hateful belligerency accomplishes nothing in politics.
Sep 04, 2018
Surveillance: EU Auto Tariffs Offer Not Good Enough, Trump Says
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Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins University Professor of Applied Economics, says Argentina has been "a complete disaster" since President Macri called the IMF. President Trump says EU offer for no auto tariffs is "not good enough", in an exclusive interview with Bloomberg's Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait. Margaret Brennan, CBS Face the Nation Host, says her show on Sunday will largely be focused on the services for Sen. McCain in Washington. And Julian Kheel, ThePointsGuy Senior Analyst, provides a much needed update on Labor Day travel in the U.S.
Aug 31, 2018
Surveillance: U.S. Consumer Is In Very Good Shape, Gayeski Says
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Harm Bandholz, Unicredit Bank Chief U.S. Economist, thinks Stanley Fischer will be hard to replace but Richard Clarida is a great pick for Fed Vice Chair. Troy Gayeski, Skybridge Partner & Portfolio Manager, says the U.S. consumer is in very good shape right now. Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter Editor & Publisher, says he'd rather own wheat than any other soft commodity. And Miriam Sapiro, Sard Verbinnen's SVC Public Affairs Managing Director & Vice Chairman, says trade negotiations require a holistic approach from several government agencies.
Aug 30, 2018
Surveillance: Stocks Are A Little Overdone, Mann Says
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Catherine Mann, Citi Global Chief Economist, says stocks are a little overdone. Stan Collender, Georgetown University Adjunct Professor of Public Policy & The Budget Guy Blog Founder, thinks a government shutdown in October is 60% likely. Andy Hunt, Wells Fargo AM Co-Head of Global Fixed Income & Head of LDI and Global Credit, shares his thoughts on the fixed income space. Austan Goolsbee, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics, says any day that we don't have a trade war is a good day for the economy.
Aug 30, 2018
Tariffs Creating 'Fortress America', Lovely Says
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Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief U.S. Economist, says the new U.S.-Mexico trade agreement is a re-branding of NAFTA. Mary Lovely, Peterson Institute for International Economics Senior Fellow, says the current administration is creating 'Fortress America' with tariffs. David Herro, Harris Associates CIO of International Equities, says underlying business conditions have been more than acceptable. And Greg Giroux, Bloomberg Government Elections Reporter, previews the midterm election primaries in Arizona, Florida, and Oklahoma today.
Aug 28, 2018
Surveillance: McCain Was A Life-Long Learner, Stavridis Says
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Admiral James Stavridis, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, says Senator John McCain was an intuitive, life-long learner. Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says the S&P 500 is carrying less volatile asset classes thanks to tech companies. Fred Lane, Lane Generational of Raymond James Managing Partner, says there is an increasingly good return on investment in college education. Erin Browne, UBS Managing Director & Head of Asset Allocation, says we are back to a negative bond-stock correlation. Grant Woods, McCain's Former Chief of Staff, says the Senator stood for basic human rights.
Aug 27, 2018
Surveillance Special: Fed Speak in Jackson Hole
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We bring you a Bloomberg Surveillance Special from the Grand Tetons in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Michael McKee, Bloomberg News International Economics & Policy Correspondent, interviews three Fed Presidents at the annual Economic Symposium. James Bullard, St. Louis Fed President, says the Fed is very close to neutral rates. On the contrary, Loretta Mester, Cleveland Fed President, says gradual interest-rate increases should continue. Robert Kaplan, Dallas Fed President, agrees with Mester, he encourages the Fed 'to keep moving.' And we include final perspective from Frederic Mishkin, a former member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Aug 24, 2018
Surveillance: Fed's George Favors Two More Rate Hikes in 2018
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Michael McKee and Kathleen Hays, Bloomberg News Correspondents, are in Jackson Hole for the 2018 Economic Symposium. Hays speaks with Kansas City Fed President Esther George and McKee previews his upcoming interviews. Amo Mbatha, Bloomberg News Reporter, discusses South Africa's reaction to President Trump's tweet. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Global Co-Head of FX Strategy, says the modern economy tends to downgrade the importance of land in income distribution. Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Head of Global Commodities & Derivatives Research, thinks gold never responds well in environments of rising rates and a strong dollar. Nina Schick, Rasmussen Global Director of Data and Polling Company, and Richard Turnill, BlackRock Investment Institute Global Chief Investment Strategist, discuss U.S.-Russia relations.
Aug 23, 2018
Surveillance: Earnings Move Stocks, Not Washington, Doll Says
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Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg News Chief Washington Correspondent, and Kim Wallace, Eurasia Group Managing Director of the United States, join us to recap headlines from Paul Manafort and Michael Cohen's cases. Robert Ray, Former Whitewater Independent Counsel known for his work on the Monica Lewinsky Case, offers perspective on the path forward for Mr. Manafort and Mr. Cohen. Robert Doll, Nuveen Asset Management Portfolio Manager, has his eye on earnings. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, says U.S. housing numbers have been a disappointment. And David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Chairman, says we're not yet seeing Washington noise in the stock market.
Aug 23, 2018
Surveillance: Powell Is A Consensus Builder, Ryding Says
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John Ryding, RDQ Economics Chief Economist & Founding Partner, says Jerome Powell is a consensus builder. John Coffee Jr., Columbia Law School Adolf A. Berle Professor of Law & Director of the Center on Corporate Governance, says a tweet cannot explain the complexities of Tesla's decisions. Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Magazine Editor & Peter G. Peterson Chair, discusses the latest issue. And Amanda Sloat, Brookings Institution Robert Bosch Senior Fellow, says it would be disastrous if Turkey left NATO, however, she hasn't seen any indication that they'll do so.
Aug 21, 2018
Surveillance: Dollar Is Overvalued About 10%, Vamvakidis Says
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Thanos Vamvakidis, Bank of America Merrill Lynch International Head of G10 FX Strategy, thinks the dollar is overvalued by about 10%. Tim Quinlan, Wells Fargo Securities Senior Economist, says conversations at Jackson Hole may be more about the balance sheet than the Fed funds rate. Ken Simonson, NABE Survey Analyst & Associated General Contractors Chief Economist, reviews the NABE survey and notes that 91% of the respondents said tariffs are harmful to the economy. And Meenal Patel, JPMorgan Private Bank EMEA Head of FX, Commodities, and Rates, foresees a continuation of global growth.
Aug 20, 2018
Still Vigor in the Global Economy, Crescenzi Says
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Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO Market Strategist, says the U.S. economy is late cycle. Romaine Bostick, Bloomberg News Editor, discusses scaling back the frequency of quarterly reporting per President Trump's tweet. Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Global Economist, thinks Turkey's crisis is more idiosyncratic than systemic. Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research President, says earnings are coming in stronger than he expected. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group Chief Research Officer, says JC Penney's search for a CEO is essential to the company's future.
Aug 17, 2018
The U.S. Is Immune To EM To A Point, Konstam Says
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Dominic Konstam, DB Securities Managing Director & Global Head of Rates Research, says the U.S. is immune to emerging markets to a point. Greg Parsons, Semper Capital Chief Executive Officer, says Special Counsel Robert Mueller is focused on getting to the truth. Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments Director of Global Macro, says we're approaching late cycle but we're not there. And Elsa Lignos, RBC Capital Markets Global Head of FX Strategy, says Euro-Sterling looks fairly interesting. ------
Aug 16, 2018
Erdogan Responds to Pressure, Cook Says
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James Sweeney, Credit Suisse Chief Economist, expects positive PMI surprises from the Eurozone. Steven Cook, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow, says compared to previous administrations, the current White House has changed the tone towards Turkey. And Sarah Halzack, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says Macy's investors may be realizing that they got a bit ahead of themselves.
Aug 15, 2018
Currency Crisis In Turkey Isn't Over, Rupkey Says
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Chris Rupkey, MUFG Union Bank Chief Financial Economist, says the currency crisis in Turkey is not over. Gordon Johnson, Vertical Group Analyst, is concerned about Tesla's balance sheet. Sharmila Whelan, Asianomics Group Deputy Chief Economist, says the China-Japan relationship is changing at the margin. And Joe Feldman, Telsey Advisory Group Senior Research Analyst, says Home Depot has done a very good job online.
Aug 14, 2018
Erdogan Wants His Power Entrenched, Rahman Says
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Mij Rahman, Eurasia Group Europe Practice Head, says he expects Turkey's central bank to hike. Georgette Boele, ABN Amro Bank Currency and Commodity Strategist, provides an EM currency update. Stephen Gandel, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, is unsure about whether or not the SEC will prosecute Elon Musk. And Matt Winkler, Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief Emeritus, reminds us of the legacy of Nikola Tesla.
Aug 13, 2018
All FX Forecasts Are Out The Window, Kalen Says
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Marc Chandler, Brown Brothers Harriman Head of Currency, lays out different options Turkey has to save the lira. Teresa Goody, Former SEC Attorney and The Goody Group Founder & CEO, suggests Elon Musk goes forward with transparency. Megan Greene, Manulife Asset Management Managing Director & Chief Economist, says Turkey's new Finance Minister is a key candidate for change. Phoenix Kalen, Societe Generale Emerging Markets Strategy Director, says that on a day like this, all forecasts are out the window. And Kit Juckes, Societe Generale Global Strategist, notes this is a biggest single day move in a single currency since 2008.
Aug 10, 2018
Risk Is Localized To Turkey, Jalinoos Says
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Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Global Head of FX Strategy, says at the moment, risk is localized to Turkey. Tuna Amobi, CFRA Media and Entertainment Analyst, sees some hesitation in M&A due to regulatory uncertainties. George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures Founder & Chairman, says Americans are vastly overestimating China's capability. And Frances Donald, Manulife Asset Management Head of Macro Strategy, says the U.S. economy is running above potential.
Aug 09, 2018
Trade Is Now War, Kotok Says
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David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors CIO & Co-Founder, says trade is now war, not even threatened rhetoric. Pablo Goldberg, BlackRock Head of Emerging Markets Debt, says Turkey has a problem with corporate debt, not with sovereign debt. Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Chief Economist & Founder, says global economic growth has pivoted towards Asia. Jeanna Smialek, Bloomberg News Economy Reporter, discusses diversity and representation, or lack thereof, among economists. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Chairman, joins to preview his interview with Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg.
Aug 08, 2018
We Have Seen a Doom Loop in EM, Santos Says
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Gabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, says dynamics in Turkey are unlike other emerging markets. Steven Major, HSBC Global Head of Fixed Income Research, says the Fed is exporting tightening to the rest of the world. Tom Singlehurst, Citi Media Analyst, foresees more vertical integration in the music business. And Steve Eisman, Eisman Group Neuberger Berman Senior Portfolio Manager, questions what Zillow insiders did and did not know as they sold a few weeks back.
Aug 07, 2018
The Market is Forward-Looking, Miletti Says
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Geoffrey Yu, UBS Wealth Management Head of U.K. Investment Office, thinks external pressure will be an opportunity for reform in China. Daniel Tannebaum, PWC Principal and Global Sanctions Leader, says from an enforcement standpoint, Iran sanctions remain unclear. Ann Miletti, Wells Fargo Asset Management Lead Portfolio Manager, thinks market strength will continue but not without volatility. Kenneth Shea, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Food & Beverage Analyst, and Jordyn Holman, Bloomberg News Managing Diversity Reporter,  join us to break down what PepsiCo's CEO change may mean for the company.
Aug 06, 2018
Our Potential to Grow is Strong, Kudlow Says
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James Glassman, JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking Head Economist, says today's jobs numbers are a reminder of how much hidden unemployment there was during the recession. Mike Darda, MKM Holdings Chief Economist & Chief Market Strategist, says U.S. payrolls are in line with expectations. Larry Kudlow, U.S. National Economic Council Director, says it looks to him like China is declining in growth. Margaret Brennan, CBS "Face the Nation" Host, discusses Thursday's White House briefing on interference in the U.S. political system. And Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth Professor & Former BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member, responds to BOE Governor Mark Carney.
Aug 03, 2018
BOE's Decision Is Hard To Justify, Posen says
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Nejra Cehic, Bloomberg TV Anchor, breaks the BOE's decision to raise interest rates to 0.75 percent. Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics President, finds the BOE's decision hard to justify. Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth Professor & Former BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member, argues that what matters the most in the U.S. and the U.K. is underemployment, not unemployment. Brian Johnson, Barclays Capital Senior Autos Analyst, sees some light at the end of the tunnel in NAFTA negotiations. And Shira Ovide, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, explains the connection between Google and Apple
Aug 02, 2018
Elon Musk ≠ Warren Buffett, Kass Says
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Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Chief Economist,thinks we are arriving at the tightest part of the labor cycle. Emma O'Brien, Bloomberg's Asia Newsdesk Editor, joins us on TV to talk Tesla. Jean-Sebastian Jacques, Rio Tinto CEO, says they're focused on high quality growth. Andrea Orcel, UBS Investment Bank President, tells Francine what global risks he has his eye on. And Douglas Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, offers his opinion on Elon Musk.
Aug 01, 2018
Central Banks Must Communicate, Schoenholtz Says
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Diana Amoa, JP Morgan Asset Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, notes Japan is nowhere near their inflation target. Kim Schoenholtz, NYU Economics Professor, says that by being transparent, central banks condition us to anticipate their behavior. Will Power, Baird Senior Research Analyst, says that Apple is heading in the right direction to fulfill its target. And Paul Donovan, UBS Wealth Management Global Chief Economist, takes a close look at eco data from Japan.
Aug 01, 2018
Populists Manipulate Fear, Vinjamuri Says
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Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist & Managing Director of Global Research, shares his definition of full employment. Leslie Vinjamuri, Chatham House Head of U.S. and the Americas Programme, has her eye on the U.S. midterm elections. Chris Marangi, Gabelli Funds Co-CIO, thinks we're overly focused on the shape of the yield curve. Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg News Senior Executive Editor for Economics, joins to discuss her recent interview with the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.
Jul 30, 2018
Tesla Is Not Executing Well, Eisman Says
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Paul Sweeney, Bloomberg Intelligence Director of North American Research, says a media platform that has less than a billion users struggles to be relevant for advertisers. Steve Eisman, Eisman Group Neuberger Berman Senior Portfolio Manager, explains all the negative signals he sees from Tesla. Chris Rupkey, MUFG Union Bank Chief Financial Economist, says economists think demographics, such as a low birth rate, will keep economic growth down. Margie Patel, Wells Fargo Asset Management Senior Portfolio Manager, is skeptical of the naysayers on how well the economy is going to do.
Jul 27, 2018
Instagram is Facebook's Bellwether, Lehmann Says
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Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President, says the U.S. is voluntarily choosing to abdicate from its hegemonic role. Mark Lehmann, JMP Securities President, expects Facebook's expenses to bloat for some time. James Bevan, CCLA Investment Management CIO, is enthusiastic for U.S. equities but not for European equities. And Win Thin, Brown Brothers Harriman Head of EM Currency, believes China will push through the trade war without facing a financial crisis.
Jul 26, 2018
Global Trade Is A Growth Engine, Roach Says
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Stephen Roach, Yale University Professor, says global trade has been an engine for growth for developing and developed countries alike. Steven Arons, Bloomberg News German Banks Reporter, thinks that Deutsche Bank has a chance of getting out of their vicious cycle. Eileen Burbidge, Passion Capital Partner, talks space exploration in the age of SpaceX. John Normand, JPMorgan Head of Cross-Asset Fundamental Strategy, says Asian currencies are clearly in the line of fire from the Trump administration. Komal Sri-Kumar, Sri-Kumar Global Strategies President, joins us to provide his macro outlook.
Jul 25, 2018
It's Time to Raise Cash Levels, Joseph Cohen Says
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Today we feature Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs Advisory Director & Senior Investment Strategist. She joins the usual suspects and Bloomberg Intelligence's Paul Sweeney to talk tech regulation and what's trending at hedge funds. Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs Global Head of Commodities Research, lays out which EM currencies are most vulnerable to oil prices. And Mary Lovely, Peterson Institute Senior Fellow & Syracuse University Professor, thinks in general, the idea that the U.S. has the upper hand in trade talks is mistaken.
Jul 24, 2018
Amazon is a Great Competitor, Langone Says
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John Silvia, Wells Fargo Securities Chief Economist, forecasts a .2-.3% change in potential GDP. Golnar Motevalli, Bloomberg Reporter in Tehran, provides an update on U.S.-Iran relations during Bloomberg Surveillance on Bloomberg TV. Tom Michaud, KBW Inc. CEO, thinks bank mergers are a slower and more deliberate process than before the economic crisis. And Ken Langone, Author "I Love Capitalism" & Home Depot Co-Founder, offers his take on Jeff Bezos and Amazon.
Jul 23, 2018
Fed Has Been A Political Piñata, Swonk Says
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Jerome Schneider, PIMCO Head of Short Term Portfolio Manager, breaks down nominal and real interest rates. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist,reviews the history of the Fed's independence. Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics President, worries that President Trump is becoming 'Nixonian.' Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, and Michael McKee, Bloomberg News International Economics & Policy Correspondent, hop on the show to discuss the potential of a currency war. Vincent Cignarella, Bloomberg Americas Global Macro Squawk, and Margaret Brennan, CBS Face the Nation Host, offer their expertise on market and political news of the week.
Jul 20, 2018
Disney Had the Upper Hand All Along, Hartman Says
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Joseph Quinlan, Head of Market Strategy for U.S. Trust, argues consumers are driving the Chinese economy. Justina Lee, Bloomberg News China Markets Reporter, observes the PBOC may be moving towards an easing bias. Kirk Hartman, Wells Fargo AM Global CIO, thinks Disney had the upper hand in bids to buy 21st Century Fox all along. And further, Craig Moffett, MoffettNathanson Founding Partner, notes we still don't know if Disney is going to increase their bid for 21st Century Fox or not.
Jul 19, 2018
Inflation Expectations Are Too Low, Kroszner says
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Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Interest Rates Strategy, says that the Fed is entering a "neutral zone." Rep. Tom Reed (R-NY), House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee member, thinks the long-term economic growth trajectory will not be impacted by the short-term anxiety from the trade war. Randall Kroszner, University of Chicago Professor & Former Fed Governor, says we ought to be open to the possibility that the yield curve flattening does not mean recession. Terry Haines, Evercore ISI Senior Political Strategist, predicts Republicans will pick up some seats in the Senate and lose a few in the House in the midterm elections.
Jul 18, 2018
Time for Kelly to Wrap It Up, Adm. Stavridis Says
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Admiral Stavridis, The Fletcher School at Tufts University Dean, says President Trump threw U.S. intelligence under the bus in Helsinki. Ian Whittaker, Liberum Media Analyst, notes that Netflix's disappointing results only represent one quarter. Matt Winkler, Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief Emeritus, says despite escalating tariff threats, EM funds with exposure to China are doing just fine. Stephanie Baker, Bloomberg News Senior Writer, provides an update on Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation.
Jul 17, 2018
What Russia Does is Bluff, Says Friedman
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Robert Hormats, Kissinger Associates Vice-Chairman, sees the Helsinki Summit as an opportunity for President Trump to take "a leadership role" in global issues. Charly Salonius-Pasternak, Senior Research Fellow of the Global Security Research Program at the Finnish Institute for International Affairs, highlights that U.S. global military and trade power is dependent on its alliance networks. George Friedman, GeoPolitical Futures Chairman, says that a great deal of what Russia does is a "bluff." Chris Granville, TS Lombard Managing Director of EMEA & Global Political Research, talks about the importance of smaller countries such as Finland in Brexit negotiations with the European Union.
Jul 17, 2018